338
FXUS63 KICT 262320
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
620 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong to severe storms remain possible across the Flint Hills
  this afternoon and early evening.

- Severe storms, a few possibly significant, likely midday
  Saturday into Saturday night.

- Active weather return by the middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 143 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

A upper level wave and associated surface cold front will continue
to move eastward across Kansas this afternoon. Current satellite
imagery was showing agitated cumulus in the deeper moisture east of
the Kansas Turnpike in response to the approaching wave/cold front.
Thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon and some of
them could produce significant severe weather. SHIP parameter values
are supportive of significant hail over two inches in size, damaging
winds around 65mph, and a strong tornado will also be possible given
low LCLs favorable low-level SRH(especially for any storm that can
remain more discrete).  The activity should shift eastward into
Missouri by late this afternoon/early evening.

Tomorrow still has the potential to bring significant severe
weather to the area, there remains a higher degree of
uncertainty than one might like this close the event. There
remains uncertainty in the forecast ranging from how potential
convection initiating in SW Oklahoma tomorrow morning could
disturb the warm sector, to expected storm mode in the CWA, and
to timing of CI over the area.

What we know is confidence is growing that more widespread
coverage of storms is expected, but the degree of the severe
risks remain in question. The deeper and more amplified trough
pattern is continuing to hold thus as the severe event goes on,
expect flooding to begin to play a bigger role in event. With
heavy rainfall and training storms possible, a flood watch has
been issued across portions of south central and southeast
Kansas from tomorrow afternoon through Sunday morning. Expect
rises on rivers and creeks and impacts to low water crossings.

A weak cap and ample forcing for ascent from the ejecting
trough, along with strong warm moist advection may generate
storms early tomorrow afternoon. If so, severe hazards would be
limited to very large hail and damaging winds for the start of
the event. As the afternoon continues, and storm coverage
increases, we may see the expected hail size reduce as anvil
seeding tempers the otherwise very large hail threat. That said,
storms that can remain more discrete to semi discrete, likely
closer to the dryline will continue to pose a very large hail
threat. The threat for a strong tornado builds as we move into
the late afternoon and early evening as the LLJ/SRH ramps up.
However, the confidence in the magnitude of the tornado threat
is lower given potential messy storm mode by the time the
environment would support them. The window for any discrete to
semi discrete storms/broken lines appears short.

The sfc low tomorrow will be in the vicinity of western KS and
is progged to deepen and setup a dryline just west of the CWA by
peak heating. Moderate to strong instability (2500-3500 J/kg)
will combine with strong flow (50kts+ bulk shear), with a
developing LL Jet/strong SRH late afternoon/early evening, and
modest 3CAPE. Any storm that can remain discrete or even semi-
discrete in this type of environment will pose significant
hazards including a strong tornado, large to very large (2-3+
inch) hail, and damaging wind gusts. Expect the storms to go
upscale with time and transition to mainly a wind and flooding
threat as we head into tomorrow evening and night. The sooner
storms go upscale, the sooner the sig hail and sig tor threat
gets reduced. Most activity should end by Sunday morning, with
just far southeast KS potentially lingering through late Sunday
morning.

The upper trough will lift northeastward on Sunday, making way for a
warming trend as we go into the middle the next week. Quiet weather
will prevail at least until middle of next week and into the end
of next week as the next western CONUS trough develops with
embedded shortwaves moving through the mean flow.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 614 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

VFR conditions are expected for most of this TAF period. There
is a slight chance for another brief round of thunderstorms in
the KCNU area through 04Z tonight but the chances are too low to
place in the TAF. VFR conditions and lighter winds are expect
through 17Z. By this time, winds will pick back up and the
chances for showers and thunderstorms are also expected to
increase. At this time, timing and location are still a question
but it appears all terminals, with the exception of KCNU are
likely to thunderstorms, possibly severe after 19Z to 20Z and
beyond this TAF period. KCNU may not see any thunderstorm
activity until after this TAF period.


&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.
Flood Watch from Saturday afternoon through Sunday afternoon
for KSZ053-069>072-093>096-098>100.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDJ/KMB
AVIATION...ELM