Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 282347
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
647 PM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 259 PM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

The slow moving upper level low will move out of New Mexico
tonight and into the Southern Plains tomorrow. Low to mid level
moisture will be abundant as this system moves through bringing
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms through tomorrow.
Moderate to heavy rain will be possible at times. Otherwise mostly
cloudy skies will be observed. Given the nature of the
convection, widespread flooding appears unlikely, although the
threat for localized high water issues will be a threat, along
with modest rises in area streams/creeks/rivers. As for
temperatures, lows tonight look to range from the mid 40s across
central Kansas to upper 50s across far southeast Kansas. Highs
tomorrow are anticipated to range from the upper 40s across
central Kansas to around 70 degrees across far southeastern
Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 259 PM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

The slow moving system will continue to affect the forecast area
through at least Thursday morning before exiting the CWA by
Thursday night. Cloudy skies are also expected to continue through
Thursday morning with decreasing cloudiness from west to east
Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening. A short dry period is
expected Thursday night through Friday with partly cloudy skies.
However, this will be short lived as the next storm system moves
into the area Friday night into this weekend. Precipitation
chances increase across central Kansas first Friday night then
spread across the remainder of eastern Kansas Saturday. This
system will also slowly trek eastward but as of now with a more
southern track. As for temperatures, highs will start out in the
low to mid 50s Thursday, then increase a few degrees each day with
highs in the 60s by early next week. Lows will start out in the
upper 30s to lower 40s Wednesday night increasing into the mid to
upper 40s by early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 639 PM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

Aviation concerns will be widespread showers and storms along
with lower ceilings.

Strong upper low is currently lifting out across far west TX with
increasing upper diffluence and mid level warm advection
resulting in increasing showers and storms across NW OK into
Central KS. This trend is expected to continue with areas along
and west of I-135 encompassed in showers and storms by 02z. While
heavy rain will be the main concern, some small hail also can`t
be ruled out. The 03z-09z time frame is when we are expected the
most robust storms as some elevated instability works into central
and south central KS. SE KS should start to get in on the action
after 04z with an increase a couple hours prior to sunrise. With
convection around, ceilings are expected to bounce around all
night with periods of IFR a good bet for areas along and NW of the
KS Turnpike.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    53  59  44  53 /  90  80  80  30
Hutchinson      50  53  43  52 /  90  90  80  30
Newton          51  57  42  51 /  90  80  80  40
ElDorado        53  63  44  53 /  90  80  80  40
Winfield-KWLD   55  67  46  55 /  90  90  80  30
Russell         44  47  39  53 / 100  90  80  30
Great Bend      46  47  40  52 / 100  90  80  30
Salina          48  49  42  52 /  90  90  80  50
McPherson       48  52  42  51 /  90  90  80  40
Coffeyville     57  70  50  58 /  90  80  80  40
Chanute         54  68  49  57 /  80  80  80  50
Iola            53  67  49  57 /  80  80  80  50
Parsons-KPPF    56  69  50  58 /  90  80  80  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...RBL



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