Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 201733
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1233 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 604 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

UPDATED TO INSERT FOG FOR LOCATIONS MAINLY WEST OF I-135.

FOG DEVELOPED JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH THAT IS MAKING ITS
WAY ACROSS CENTRAL KS. CURRENT OBS SHOW THAT SOME OF IT WILL BE
DENSE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

PROGRESSIVE 500 MB PATTERN...WAS HAS BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED
THROUGH TIME...IS SHOWN IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOOP THIS
MORNING. A DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW PATTERN WAS
CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AT 07Z...WITH
RIDGING EAST OF THE ROCKIES AND A TROUGH OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC.

AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM
WISCONSIN... SOUTHWEST THROUGH NORTHERN KANSAS. A FEW SHOWERS WERE
NOTED ON RADAR ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
AND AREAS EAST.

FOR TODAY...THESE SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST.
THE COLD FRONT WILL BECOME DIFFUSE. BY WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL
RETURN SOUTH AND BRING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SYSTEM LATER IN THE WEEK.

COOK

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY. THE
ECMWF AND GFS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD MORE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
EVENT...WITH QPF VALUES UP TO .75 INCHES. AS A
RESULT...PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE INCREASED. ENOUGH INSTABILITY
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH FORCING ALONG THE FRONT TO
PRODUCT SOME THUNDERSTORMS. CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY HIGH THAT
PRECIPITATION WILL BE OBSERVED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND THAT
SEVERE STORMS WILL NOT OCCUR.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.

COOK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 18 HOURS...AS A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH DISSIPATES AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.  AS THIS
TROUGH WASHES OUT...EXPECT A GRADUAL WIND SHIFT BACK TO THE EAST AND
EVENTUALLY SOUTHEAST AS THE OVERNIGHT PROGRESSES.

AS LOW LEVEL FLOW RETURNS TO THE SE-S OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE...ESPECIALLY OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL KS BY TUE AM. OPERATIONAL SHORT TERM
MODELS SUGGEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ENOUGH FOR SOME
POSSIBLE MVFR VSBYS OF 3-5SM AND CIGS AROUND 2000 AGL DEVELOPING
NEAR THE KICT AND POSSIBLY KHUT/KRSL TAF SITES BY AROUND
12-14Z/TUE. SO WILL INCLUDE THIS MENTION FOR KICT FOR NOW.  NOT
ENTIRELY OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT FOG OR CIGS COULD GO IFR OR
LIFR...SIMILAR TO WHAT HAPPENED THIS MORNING NEAR KHUT BUT WILL LET
LATER SHIFTS LOOK AT THIS CLOSER.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    78  51  76  56 /  10   0   0  10
HUTCHINSON      77  49  76  55 /   0   0   0  10
NEWTON          76  50  74  55 /   0   0   0  10
ELDORADO        77  50  75  54 /  10   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   78  53  75  56 /  10   0   0   0
RUSSELL         75  48  74  56 /   0   0   0  10
GREAT BEND      75  48  75  56 /   0   0   0  10
SALINA          76  47  74  55 /   0   0   0  10
MCPHERSON       76  49  74  54 /   0   0   0  10
COFFEYVILLE     75  50  74  51 /  20  10   0   0
CHANUTE         76  48  72  50 /  10   0   0   0
IOLA            75  48  72  49 /  10   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    75  49  74  50 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$






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