Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 112333
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
533 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

THE NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THIS PERIOD WITH A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL
PUSH MUCH COLDER AIR SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS...WITH COLD BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SPREADING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS KANSAS ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY. MEANWHILE...MODELS SHOW A
COUPLE UPPER LEVEL WAVES RACING ACROSS KANSAS FOR SUNDAY/SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THE NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW REGIME. THIS NORTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN HAS PUSHED THE DEEPER GULF MOISTURE WELL SOUTH NEAR THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND RETURN OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE SUNDAY WAVES
WILL BE OF POOR QUALITY. THEREFORE ONLY EXPECTING LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TO AFFECT SOUTHEAST KANSAS...WITH RAIN SHOWERS OR A
LIGHT WINTER MIXTURE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT A PATTERN CHANGE IS IN STORE FOR THE
REGION NEXT WEEK...AS LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW UPPER UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE MIGRATING FROM THE ROCKIES OUT ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE
COUNTRY. THIS WILL BRING WARMER AIR BACK TO KANSAS AND TEMPERATURES
COULD GET QUITE WARM FOR MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 532 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

VFR FORECAST AT ALL SITES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. MAIN CONCERN IS
POTENTIAL FOR MVFR/IFR CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT AND MUCH OF SAT AT
KRSL/KSLN AND KGBD. NAM SEEMS TO BE OVERLY AGRESSIVE WITH BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE RELATIVE TO OTHER MODELS AND NOT AS STRONG A
SIGNAL AS LAST NIGHT. HAVE OPTED GO SCT015 FOR NOW. OF THE THREE
SITES...KRSL PROBABLY HAS BEST CHANCE OF GOING BROKEN DUE TO
INCREASINGLY UPSLOPE FLOW LATE IN THE PERIOD. -HOWERTON

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 236 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN LOWER FOR FRIDAY INTO THE EARLY
NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER FIRE WEATHER LEVELS COULD RISE FOR TUESDAY-
THURSDAY NEXT WEEK AS TEMPERATURES WARM AND SOUTH WINDS INCREASE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    31  45  19  37 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      30  44  17  37 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          30  42  16  34 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        30  43  18  35 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   31  47  19  38 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         29  39  17  35 /   0   0   0  10
GREAT BEND      30  42  18  37 /   0   0   0  10
SALINA          30  39  16  35 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       30  42  17  35 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     28  46  18  38 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         28  43  15  34 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            27  42  13  32 /   0   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    28  45  16  36 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$


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