Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KICT 221918
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
218 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 217 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

IN THE UPPER LEVELS CURRENTLY HAVE A LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
WITH A LEAD IMPULSE TRACKING OVER SW NEBRASKA/NW KS. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE IS SITUATED OVER THE MIDDLE MISS VALLEY
WITH LEE TROUGHING STRENGTHENING OVER EASTERN CO AHEAD OF THE
UPPER WAVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 217 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING POTENTIAL SAT
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUN EVENING...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS EAST OF THE
KS TURNPIKE.

THE MODERATE RAINFALL FROM THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHEAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WE SHOULD SEE AN OVERALL BREAK IN
THE RAIN TONIGHT AS THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE BETWEEN UPPER
IMPULSES. HOWEVER...WE WILL MAINTAIN MOIST LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC
LIFT WHICH WILL AT LEAST KEEP SOME DRIZZLE AROUND...SOME WHICH
MAYBE HEAVY ENOUGH TO MEASURE.

MORE ROBUST SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO LIFT OUT OVER THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS BY SAT AFTERNOON. AS THIS OCCURS 850-700MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL REALLY RAMP UP. IN ADDITION...DEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM 850-300MB WILL RESULT IN PW`S AROUND 1.75"
OVER SE KS BY SAT EVENING WHICH IS IN THE 90TH PERCENTILE GIVEN
THE TIME OF YEAR. THESE HIGH PW VALUES ARE ALSO 2-3 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. SUN INTO SUN EVENING THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF A N-S ORIENTED UPPER JET WILL START TO AFFECT THE
AREA...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN ANOTHER ENHANCEMENT OF
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY FOR SE KS WHERE PW WILL REMAIN HIGH.

AT THIS POINT HAVE THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR FLOODING FOR SE KS.
ALSO FEEL WITH THE INITIAL SURGE OF MOISTURE SAT AFTERNOON-
EVENING...SOME WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS FAR WEST AS
WICHITA...ESPECIALLY SINCE GROUNDS ARE MORE SATURATED THIS FAR
WEST. THE FLOODING THREAT AS FAR WEST AS I-135 SHOULD BE COMING
TO AN END BY SUN AFTERNOON WITH A CONTINUED RISK FOR SE KS THROUGH
SUN NIGHT. SO WILL SEGMENT THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH ACCORDINGLY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 217 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

BROAD UPPER TROUGHING WILL REMAIN OVER THE PLAINS FOR MON WITH THE
MAIN UPPER ENERGY OVER NEBRASKA/SD. RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER AT LEAST SE KS MON WITH VERY HIGH
INSTABILITY EXPECTED BY MON AFTERNOON/EVENING. MON
AFTERNOON/EVENING LOOKS TO BE OUR BEST SHOT FOR SEVERE
STORMS...ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-135. THIS LOOKS TO BE AN EXTREME
INSTABILITY/LOW SHEAR TYPE EVENT WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO HP TYPE
SUPERCELLS WHICH MAY NOT ONLY PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER...BUT MAY
ALSO ADD TO THE FLOODING THREAT.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

FOR ICT-HUT-SLN-RSL-CNU...A SHIELD OF RAIN ORIENTED NORTHWEST-
SOUTHEAST WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...IN
RESPONSE TO SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS.
THINKING PERIODIC MVFR VSBYS/CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AT ALL SITES AS
THIS RAIN PASSES THROUGH. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A FEW
ISOLATED EMBEDDED LIGHTNING STRIKES...BUT LEFT OUT OF TAFS DUE TO
VERY ISOLATED NATURE. BY MID TO LATE MORNING IN WAKE OF THIS RAIN
SHIELD...THINK PREVAILING MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY...GIVEN PERSISTENT
LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY MOISTURE ADVECTION. POSSIBLE THAT THESE CIGS
WILL EVENTUALLY GO IFR TONIGHT...BUT DID NOT INCLUDE IN TAFS JUST
YET.

ADK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    59  55  67  62 /  70  50  90  70
HUTCHINSON      58  54  66  62 /  60  50  80  50
NEWTON          58  53  66  61 /  70  50  80  70
ELDORADO        59  54  68  63 /  80  50  90  80
WINFIELD-KWLD   60  55  70  63 /  60  50 100  80
RUSSELL         57  51  65  59 /  50  50  60  30
GREAT BEND      57  53  65  59 /  50  50  60  30
SALINA          59  53  66  61 /  70  50  70  50
MCPHERSON       58  54  66  61 /  70  50  80  50
COFFEYVILLE     66  55  73  65 /  80  50  90 100
CHANUTE         64  55  70  65 /  70  50  80 100
IOLA            64  55  70  64 /  70  50  80 100
PARSONS-KPPF    65  55  71  65 /  80  50  90 100

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR KSZ052-053-069-083-092-093.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
FOR KSZ070>072-094>096-098>100.

&&

$$



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.