Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 231145
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
645 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WERE MOVING
EAST INTO CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING...SUPPORTED BY A LEAD
UPPER SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGER UPPER TROF MOVING OUT
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE BETTER ELEVATED MOISTURE TRANSPORT
RESULTING IN MODEST INSTABILITY WILL RESIDE ACROSS THIS REGION OF
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE MORNING...SO WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW
THE HIGHEST POPS ALONG/NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50. THE BETTER DIURNAL
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WILL RESIDE OUT ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS TO
THE EAST OF THE LEE SURFACE TROF LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL
SUPPORT RENEWED CONVECTION THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD THEN TRACK
FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...AIDED BY THE LIFT FROM THE
MAIN UPPER TROF AXIS AS IT SHIFTS EAST ACROSS WESTERN INTO CENTRAL
KANSAS. THE WEAKENING UPPER TROF/SHEAR AXIS WILL SLOW ITS EAST
PROGRESS ON WEDNESDAY AS IT MOVES ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS. THE
WEAKER UPPER SUPPORT WILL STILL SUPPORT SOME LINGERING AND RENEWED
CONVECTION...WHICH SUPPORTS THE GOING MODEST CHANCE POPS MAINLY
ALONG/WEST OF THE TURNPIKE. THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE AXIS ACROSS
THE ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY WILL SHIFT THE
MUCH WEAKER TROF AXIS SOUTH OF THE AREA...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT ANY
CONVECTION TO A MORE ISOLATED NATURE IF AT ALL...SO WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WARM TO A BIT
ABOVE SEASONAL CLIMO BY THURSDAY.

DARMOFAL

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE AXIS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT
LAKES WILL SUPPORT LIGHT EASTERLIES LATE IN THE WEEK CAUSING THE
WEAK UPPER TROF TO RETROGRADE WEST OVER THE PLAINS AGAIN. WHILE
ISOLATED CONVECTION CANNOT BE RULED OUT IT APPEARS INSTABILITY
WILL BE LACKING OR WEAK SO WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FRIDAY AND
TO START THE WEEKEND. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGEST A DEEPER
UPPER TROF WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST COAST AND MOVE INLAND BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME PRECIP CHANCES BY THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

NUMEROUS SHRA & EMBEDDED TSRA CONTINUE TO MARCH EAST ~25KTS ACROSS
CNTRL KS WITH -RA MORE WDLY SCT ACROSS SC KS. VSBYS (2-4SM) ARE LIKELY
AT KRSL & KSLN TIL ~14Z ALTHO CIGS WOULD REMAIN PRIMARILY VFR (8,000-
10,000FT) OVER BOTH TERMINALS. KHUT & KICT TO MAINTAIN VFR STATUS FOR
DURATION OF THE 23/12Z EDITION WITH CIGS >=4,000FT IN AREAS OF -RA.
KCNU TO MAINTAIN VFR STATUS WITH CIGS >=15,000FT. S WINDS ~17KTS
SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS ~25KTS ARE LIKELY ACROSS ALL AREAS BY 17Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    80  58  81  60 /  20  40  30  20
HUTCHINSON      79  58  81  59 /  40  50  40  20
NEWTON          77  57  79  58 /  30  50  40  20
ELDORADO        78  57  79  58 /  20  40  30  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   79  59  80  60 /  20  30  30  20
RUSSELL         79  58  81  59 /  60  60  30  20
GREAT BEND      80  58  81  59 /  60  60  30  20
SALINA          78  58  80  59 /  50  60  40  20
MCPHERSON       78  58  80  59 /  40  60  40  20
COFFEYVILLE     78  55  79  56 /  10  10  10  10
CHANUTE         77  55  78  56 /  10  10  20  20
IOLA            76  55  78  56 /  10  20  20  20
PARSONS-KPPF    78  55  78  56 /  10  10  20  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$






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