Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 241653
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1153 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

UPPER SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY LIFTING OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS WITH
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY ABOUT TO COME ON SHORE OVER THE
PACIFIC NW. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT IS SURGING THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NORTHEAST KS INTO THE OK
PANHANDLE. SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG AND JUST
BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT PUSHES SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

THE OVERALL PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM HAS SLOWED DOWN COMPARED TO
MODEL RUNS OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THE BULK OF THE PRECIP IS
DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT SURGES SOUTHEAST AND THIS SHOULD
CONTINUE AS THE LARGE SCALE LIFT MOVES OUT ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING. IT APPEARS THERE MAY ALSO BE A SECONDARY AREA OF PRECIP
THAT MAY SWING THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON WHICH IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WRAP AROUND REGION OF THIS
SYSTEM. YOU CAN SEE THIS AREA NOW TAKING SHAPE OVER FAR WEST
KS/EASTERN CO. NOT TOO CONCERNED WITH SEVERE STORMS WITH THIS
ACTIVITY THIS MORNING WITH JUST SOME 40 MPH WINDS POSSIBLE WITH
THE STRONGER STORMS. BY 21Z ALL OF THE PRECIP WILL BE EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA AS THE UPPER WAVE MOVES INTO THE OZARK REGION.

WEAK UPPER RIDGING WILL BRIEFLY SETUP ON FRI WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR
PLENTY OF SUN AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. A FEW STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER FAR SE KS LATE FRI NIGHT AS MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE
ON A RAPID INCREASE IN MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN THE 850-700MB LAYER.

STRONG UPPER SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO BE SITUATED OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST BY SAT AFTERNOON AND APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES BY
EARLY SAT EVENING. MOISTURE IS STILL EXPECTED TO WORK NORTH FRI
NIGHT THROUGH SAT...ALTHOUGH LATEST GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF ON THE
QUALITY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINT EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
57-62 RANGE. STORMS WILL ATTEMPT TO DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE
GENERALLY WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA AFTER 21Z.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN STORM DEVELOPMENT IS LOW DUE TO THE BULK
OF THE LARGE SCALE ASCENT LAGGING BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WILL
NOT LIFT OUT UNTIL WELL AFTER DARK. IF STORMS DO DEVELOP LATE SAT
AFTERNOON/EVENING...CONFIDENCE IS VERY HIGH THAT THEY WILL QUICKLY
BECOME SEVERE GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND ESPECIALLY LOW
LEVEL SHEAR. GIVEN MOISTURE CONTINUING TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND
THE LOW LEVELS STAYING MIXED...THIS WOULD BE A SCENARIO WHERE IF A
STORM DOES DEVELOP...IT COULD SURVIVE WELL AFTER DARK.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

THE SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO LIFT OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS ON SUNDAY
WHICH WILL ALLOW THE DRYLINE TO SURGE EAST. THERE IS SOME
DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF ON HOW FAR THIS DRYLINE
WILL SURGE DURING THE DAY. THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH
IT...EXITING SE KS BY 21Z. MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF HAS THE DRYLINE
ALONG I-135 BY 18Z SUNDAY. EVEN THOUGH CHANCES FOR DISCRETE
SUPERCELL WOULD BE LOW OVER EASTERN KS ON SUN...MUCH LESS
CAPPING...PLENTY OF LARGE SCALE LIFT AND MUCH STRONGER MID AND
UPPER WINDS WOULD RESULT IN NUMEROUS SEVERE STORMS EAST OF THE DRYLINE.

BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE ON CLOSING OFF THIS WAVE OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS BY SUN NIGHT AND LINGERING IT OVER THE AREA THROUGH
AT LEAST TUE. THIS WILL RESULT IN WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FOR TUE
AND WED WITH A FEW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AS MUCH OF THE AREA STAYS
IN THE WARP AROUND REGION OF THIS SHORTWAVE.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1150 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD PUSH EAST OUT OF SOUTHEAST KS BY 21Z
THIS AFTERNOON...AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRACKS EASTWARD. SOME
OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL AFFECT THE CNU TERMINAL THROUGH ABOUT 19Z WITH
GUSTY WINDS AND PERHAPS SMALL HAIL. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS GUSTING TO
30 KNOTS BEHIND A COLD FRONT...WILL SUBSIDE AND BECOME
LIGHT/VARIABLE THIS EVENING AS SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS.
LEE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY...WILL ALLOW WINDS TO BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KNOTS DEVELOPING TOWARD MIDDAY.

JMC

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

FIRE DANGER CONCERNS WILL BE ELEVATED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL ELEVATED THE GRASSLAND
FIRE DANGER INTO THE VERY HIGH CATEGORY FOR ALL OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL KS. WIND SPEEDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE SUSTAINED IN
THE 20-25 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH. RH`S ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL KS WILL BE IN THE 25 TO 33% RANGE.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO FLIP AROUND TO THE SOUTH ON FRI AND WILL
AGAIN BE GUSTY WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS IN THE 20-25 MPH RANGE. THIS
WILL AGAIN RESULT IN VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER FOR ALL OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL KS. EVEN THOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ON
SAT...SO WILL THE SOUTH WINDS WITH GUSTS IN THE 40-45 MPH RANGE
POSSIBLE SAT AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN VERY
HIGH FIRE DANGER OVER ALL OF THE AREA WITH SOME EXTREME VALUES
EVEN POSSIBLE WEST OF I-135.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    72  45  83  58 /  60   0   0  10
HUTCHINSON      71  44  83  58 /  40   0   0  10
NEWTON          70  44  81  58 /  60   0   0  10
ELDORADO        70  44  81  58 /  60   0   0  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   72  44  82  59 /  40   0   0  10
RUSSELL         71  44  81  54 /  20   0   0  10
GREAT BEND      71  43  82  56 /  20   0   0  10
SALINA          71  44  82  57 /  50   0   0  10
MCPHERSON       70  44  82  57 /  50   0   0  10
COFFEYVILLE     72  43  80  56 /  70  10   0  20
CHANUTE         71  43  79  55 /  70  10   0  20
IOLA            69  43  79  55 /  80  10   0  30
PARSONS-KPPF    71  43  80  56 /  80  10   0  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







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