Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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340
FXUS63 KICT 291745
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1245 PM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 357 AM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

Forecast highlights: Rain/storms today, and again this weekend
into early next week.

Latest MRMS precipitation data suggests widespread rain amounts
of 1-2 inches, with pockets of 2-3 inches have fallen since
yesterday afternoon/evening in a wide north-south strip from
central and south-central Kansas east through the Flint Hills of
east-central and southeast Kansas. This will likely produce
healthy rises on several rivers/streams/creeks this morning, with
most probably remaining just below minor flood stage levels.
However, a handful of points could exceed minor flood stage,
especially if another widespread, prolonged area of moderate to
heavy rain moves north across the area this morning (which appears
possibly given activity still across Oklahoma). Additionally, a
handful of areal flood warnings for minor low-land flooding will
remain possible.

Once Oklahoma precipitation moves north across the region early
this morning, thinking widespread moderate to heavy rain should
gradually decrease in coverage, as a mid-level dry slot spreads
north over the region. However, portions of central and north-
central Kansas will likely see widespread precipitation shield
hang around longer due to mid-level deformation zone setting up
shop western through northern KS.

Attention then turns to strong/severe storm potential from midday
through early this evening, generally east of the Kansas Turnpike
corridor, as the warm sector retrogrades northwest some in
response substantial upper energy approaching from the southwest.
If airmass is able to recover from morning convection, strong deep
layer shear in concert with steepening lapse rates/cooling aloft
and modest instability would support large hail and perhaps
locally 60 mph winds with a handful of storms. Tornado threat
should remain fairly low given veer-back deep layer shear
orientation, but cannot completely be ruled out given the strong
wind fields associated with this system.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 357 AM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

Models are finally coming into better agreement with the next
system, with consensus supporting more rain/isolated storms this
weekend through Monday. Could see pockets of locally heavy
rainfall, although this next storm doesn`t look as impressive as
the current one.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

A large storm system will lift over the area tonight with IFR and
pockets of LIFR prevailing across much of the area through the
upcoming 24-hr period. Scattered storms are expected to redevelop
along an eastward advancing cold front with some severe storms
possible across much of Southeast KS. Winds behind the front will
shift to the north-northwest with gusts of 25 to 30 knots. Low
clouds will linger into the morning hours with some breaks late in
the day on Thursday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 357 AM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

Wet and cool weather along with things starting to green up should
keep fire danger levels fairly low the next several days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    58  42  51  39 /  90  50  50  10
Hutchinson      50  40  51  37 / 100  60  50   0
Newton          55  42  49  38 / 100  60  50  10
ElDorado        61  43  51  39 / 100  60  50  10
Winfield-KWLD   64  44  52  39 /  80  50  40  10
Russell         47  39  51  36 / 100  70  20   0
Great Bend      47  39  53  35 / 100  70  30   0
Salina          51  40  50  38 / 100  70  50   0
McPherson       49  40  50  37 / 100  70  50   0
Coffeyville     70  48  54  41 / 100  50  50  20
Chanute         69  48  53  41 / 100  60  60  20
Iola            67  49  54  41 / 100  60  60  20
Parsons-KPPF    69  48  54  41 / 100  50  60  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADK
LONG TERM...ADK
AVIATION...MWM
FIRE WEATHER...ADK



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