Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 301725
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1225 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

THIS MORNING:
MAY SEE PESKY FOG DEVELOP IN NARROW BAND AT INTERFACE BETWEEN
COOLER AIR NORTHWEST OF BOUNDARY AND HIGHER DEW POINTS/WARMER AIR
TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS SHOULD BE LIMITED SPATIALLY AND TRANSIENT
ENOUGH TO NOT NEED AN ADVISORY. MAY SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM IN EXTREME SOUTHEAST KS THROUGH SUNRISE...BUT WITH
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH...THREAT SHOULD WANE FAIRLY QUICKLY.

THIS AFTERNOON-SUN MORNING:
NOT ANTICIPATING MORE THAN AN ISOLATED/ROGUE STORM THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING IN SOUTHEAST KS. FLOW AT OR BELOW 850MB IS
EXTREMELY WEAK...SO HAVE DOUBTS THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT
CONVERGENCE TO GET INITIATION. HOWEVER STILL LOOKS TO BE A DECENT
CHANCE FOR ELEVATED PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT IN
CENTRAL KS...AND PROBABLY LINGER INTO SUN MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF FLINT HILLS.

SUN AFTERNOON-MON:
STILL EXPECT DECENT CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS EITHER MOVING INTO OR
DEVELOPING OVER NORTHWEST SECTION OF FORECAST AREA EITHER VERY LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON OR MORE LIKELY IN THE EVENING. NAM/GFS/ECMWF ALL
SHOW VARIATIONS ON THE SAME THEME AND SHEAR/INSTABILITY LOOK MORE
FAVORABLE THAN 24 HOURS AGO. ANTICIPATE MCS TO MOVE ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE NIGHT. MON IS A BIT
TRICKIER WITH A LOT DEPENDING ON TRACK OF MCS. IF AIRMASS AHEAD OF
FRONT DOES NOT GET WORKED OVER/AFFECTED BY CONVECTIVE DEBRIS OR
CLEARS EARLY ENOUGH TO RECOVER...WOULD LIKELY SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF
SEVERE CONVECTION. BOTH GFS/ECMWF WOULD SUPPORT SEVERE CONVECTION.
MAIN DIFFERENCE IS ECMWF IS SLOWER PUSHING FRONT THROUGH AREA...
WITH SEVERE THREAT AS FAR NORTH AS A SALINA-LYONS LINE...WHILE GFS
WOULD BE ALONG/E OF I-35. FOR NOW WILL HIT THREAT A BIT MORE ON
SUN AND PAINT A MORE BROAD PICTURE FOR MON IN HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK. -HOWERTON

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH
FRONT...WHICH WILL FORTUNATELY LIMIT FLOODING POTENTIAL. STILL
GOOD POSSIBILITY OF MCS MON NIGHT/TUE MORNING AS LOW LEVEL JET
INTERSECTS EAST/WEST SURFACE BOUNDARY. AS PER MON AFTERNOON
FORECAST...ECMWF IS QUITE A BIT FURTHER NORTH THAN GFS...SO THERE
IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WHERE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL
FALL...BUT SOMEWHERE IN SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS APPEARS TO BE
FAVORED AREA AT THIS TIME. BY TUE NIGHT ECMWF HAS SHUNTED
PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE AREA...WHILE GFS LINGERS EXTENSIVE
PRECIPITATION ACROSS ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. BUT TREND BEYOND THAT
IS DRY WITH INCREASING RETURN FLOW FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
-HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

THERE IS A THREAT OF CONVECTION FOR KRSL AND MVFR FOG FOR KCNU
DURING THE TAF PERIOD.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER TO AN
EAST TO SOUTHEAST DIRECTION IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS...ADVECTING IMPROVED
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BELOW 2K. EARLY MORNING DIURNAL MIXING LIKELY
WILL PRODUCE MVFR FOG AT KCNU...WHICH SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 14-15
UTC AS WITH INCREASE BL MIXING.

AT THE OPPOSITE END OF THE CWA...THERE IS A THREAT FOR ELEVATED
CONVECTION AFT 09 UTC FOR KRSL. SYNOPTIC AND MESO MODELS DEPICTING
ADVANCE OF SHORTWAVE/PV ANOMALY INTO WESTERN KANSAS AFT 06
UTC...WITH BOTH NAM/GFS DEPICTING ENHANCED LIFT ALONG THE 315K BETWEEN
09-12 UTC. INTRODUCED VCTS INTO KRSL TAF THOUGH CONFIDENCE THAT
STORMS ACTUALLY WILL IMPACT TAF SITE NOT GREAT.

REMAINDER OF TAF SITES WILL EXPERIENCE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
ENTIRETY OF TAF PERIOD...WITH ONLY EXPECTED AVIATION IMPACT
OCCURRING VERY LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE
TO SUSTAINED SPEEDS 12-15KTS WITH GUSTS 20-25KTS.

SF


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    91  70  96  73 /   0  10  10  40
HUTCHINSON      90  69  96  71 /   0  10  10  50
NEWTON          90  69  95  72 /   0  10  10  60
ELDORADO        91  69  95  73 /  10  10  10  50
WINFIELD-KWLD   91  70  96  75 /  10  10  10  30
RUSSELL         90  71  97  65 /   0  20  20  60
GREAT BEND      90  70  97  66 /   0  20  20  60
SALINA          91  70  96  68 /   0  20  20  60
MCPHERSON       90  69  96  70 /   0  10  20  60
COFFEYVILLE     92  70  96  75 /  10  10  10  20
CHANUTE         91  69  95  74 /  10  10  10  40
IOLA            90  68  94  73 /  10  10  10  50
PARSONS-KPPF    92  70  96  75 /  10  10  10  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$






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