Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 240034
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
634 PM CST Fri Feb 23 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 629 PM CST Fri Feb 23 2018

Pops were increased across southeast tonight based on recent radar
trends with widespread precipitation developing across all of
eastern OK. This activity will drift northeast impacting all of
southeast KS tonight where temperatures will remain above freezing.
Further north and west, little changes were made as the freezing
line continues to bisect the forecast area with temperatures near
or slightly below freezing mainly along and west of the Kansas
Turnpike area. The freezing drizzle area was expanded slightly
into portions of south central KS but with temperatures hovering
near freezing, the impacts are expected to remain limited with no
changes to the winter weather advisory at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 241 PM CST Fri Feb 23 2018

Main concern is how far south to go with light ice accumulation
potential in central Kansas tonight/Saturday morning from freezing
drizzle. Easterly component upslope surface flow will prevail this
evening/tonight as the approaching upper trof moves over the Rockies.
Meanwhile, a moist southwest flow aloft across the southern Plains
into the Mid-Mississippi Valley will continue as well with
southeast Kansas on the northern periphery of the deeper moist
ascent and transient shortwave providing more widespread showers
and isolated thunderstorms early tonight. The main challenge
overnight is the southern extent of the sub-freezing surface air
which could vary anywhere from the I-70 corridor to as far south
as the highway 50 corridor. The RAP/NAM/HRRR are further south in
this respect and provide enough confidence to add a row of
counties on the southern extent of the current Winter Weather
Advisory. The main upper trof will lift out across the northern
and central Plains during Saturday with far southern Kansas
getting into a drier and milder westerly component low level flow
in the afternoon. Southeast Kansas looks to be affected by another
round of showers/isolated thunder around midday with a wintry mix
or even brief snow showers along/north of I-70 under the colder
trof passage aloft before progressive clearing from west to east
by late afternoon and evening for all locales. Seasonably mild and
dry weather is still expected to close out the weekend on Sunday
with even warmer weather on Monday.

Darmofal

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 241 PM CST Fri Feb 23 2018

An upper low will evolve across California and the Southwest CONUS
through early next week. However there remain differences on its
movement across the central or southern CONUS during the mid-week
periods. Plan to make little change to the going forecast in showing
modest chances for precip late Tuesday through Wednesday night.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 520 PM CST Fri Feb 23 2018

Widespread IFR and LIFR will prevail through the night and into
much of the day on Sat with widespread light precipitation. The
freezing line is expected to be bisecting the forecast area
leading to light freezing drizzle across much of central KS.
Freezing drizzle will likely impact KGBD, KRSL, KSLN and perhaps
for a few hours at KHUT. As you move south and east drizzle and
light rain is anticipated as surface temperatures are progged to
remain near or just above freezing. Conditions will begin to
improve by midday on Sat with some breaks in the clouds expected
by afternoon.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 241 PM CST Fri Feb 23 2018

Grassland fire weather conditions will remain low through the
weekend.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    34  47  22  54 /  40  50   0   0
Hutchinson      32  45  20  53 /  40  50   0   0
Newton          31  45  22  52 /  40  50   0   0
ElDorado        33  46  24  53 /  60  50  10   0
Winfield-KWLD   35  50  24  56 /  70  50   0   0
Russell         27  40  18  51 /  60  60   0   0
Great Bend      28  42  18  52 /  60  60   0   0
Salina          30  42  20  52 /  60  60   0   0
McPherson       31  44  20  52 /  50  50   0   0
Coffeyville     39  54  27  57 /  90  70  10   0
Chanute         36  50  26  54 /  90  60  10   0
Iola            35  49  25  54 /  90  60  10   0
Parsons-KPPF    38  52  25  56 /  90  60  10   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to noon CST
Saturday for KSZ032-033-047>049.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MWM
SHORT TERM...KED
LONG TERM...KED
AVIATION...MWM
FIRE WEATHER...KED



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