Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 290444
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1144 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A COMPACT SHORTWAVE TRACKING ACROSS
CENTRAL/NORTHERN IA WITH RIDGING OVER THE DESERT SW/SOUTHERN
ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE...COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM FAR EASTERN
NEBRASKA INTO SW KS WITH A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN SEABOARD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT IN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS FIRST OVER NORTHEAST KS WITH THIS ACTIVITY TRYING TO
WORK SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING. THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE AIDED BY THE MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT STILL HAS TO PASS
ACROSS THE AREA. HOW MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY MAKES IT INTO THE
FORECAST AREA IS THE MAIN QUESTION AND FOR NOW HAVE THE HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE FOR THE NORTHEAST AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WITH AROUND 2,000J/KG OF CAPE AND 25-30KTS OF 0-6KM
SHEAR...ANY STORM THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE
STRONG/LOW END SEVERE. BY SAT MORNING THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL
BE SE OF THE FORECAST AREA. UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES/DESERT SW AS SOME UPPER ENERGY DIVES OUT
OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND RETROGRADES SLIGHTLY INTO
EASTERN OK. THIS IMPULSE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
INTO THE START OF THE WORK WEEK WITH ANY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE STAYING SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA.

A WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE SUNDAY AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
START OF THE WORK WEEK. 850MB TEMPS SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID 90S
AREA WIDE BY MON WITH SOME UPPER 90S EVEN POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL
KS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

THE MAIN THEME THROUGH THESE EXTENDED PERIODS WILL BE FOR
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND DRY CONDITIONS.

BY TUE A SLOW MOVING UPPER TROUGH WILL BE COMING ON SHORE OVER THE
PACIFIC NW WITH SURFACE LEE TROUGHING SLOWLY STRENGTHENING. 850MB
TEMPS WOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 90S. GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
REMAINING ANCHORED OVER THE NW FOR MID/LATE WEEK WHICH WILL
CONTINUE TO PROMOTE A WARMING TREND AND WITH WARMING MID LEVEL
TEMPS...PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
SLOWLY EAST OVER THE AREA. PATCHY MVFR FOG AND CIGS ARE POSSIBLE
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AROUND DAWN. OTHERWISE LIGHT NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    67  86  64  88 /  20  10   0  10
HUTCHINSON      64  86  62  89 /  10   0   0   0
NEWTON          64  85  62  88 /  50  10   0   0
ELDORADO        65  86  63  90 /  50  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   67  87  65  89 /  20  10  10  10
RUSSELL         63  89  62  92 /  10   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      63  89  62  92 /  10   0   0   0
SALINA          63  88  62  91 /  20   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       64  85  62  89 /  20   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     67  85  65  88 /  30  10  10  10
CHANUTE         66  85  64  87 /  30  10  10  10
IOLA            65  84  64  87 /  30  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    67  85  65  88 /  30  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


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