Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 252012
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
312 PM CDT THU AUG 25 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Thu Aug 25 2016

A stalled frontal boundary will create an active weather pattern for
the next several days. PW values are rather high in the 1-1.5 inch
range providing some high octane moisture for convection to work
with. Moisture transport and deep layer shear are present but not
great. This will make for the efficient rain makers overnight
tonight. Best chances are from the Turnpike to the East. An
isolated severe thunderstorm is also possible overnight with wind
being the primary threat. Localized flooding is possible in some
areas of South Central and Central Kansas. Based on the moisture
and the above mentioned atmospheric parameters and collaboration
with surrounding offices, issuing a Flood Watch for the overnight
time period for much of Central and South Central Kansas.

The next question is the amount of precipitation for Friday
afternoon through Saturday. The frontal boundary remains over the
CWA. Models still indicate high octane moisture present with PW
staying near 1.5 inches. Additionally, expect some waves moving
along the front Friday night which will allow for some more
convection to get going. Again, expect many of the thunderstorms
to be efficient rain produces with locally heavy rain likely.
Can`t rule out an isolated severe storm as well. Temperatures look
to remain just below normal due the increased cloud cover.
Overnight lows will likely be near or just above normal as there
just does not seem to be any good push of cooler drier air moving
into the area.

Sunday looks to be a little drier but moisture will remain high
which will keeping the clouds in the area. PW looks to drop to
around an inch keeping plenty of fuel for thunderstorms, just not
as much. This will keep the temperatures down some. Showers and
thunderstorms will still be possible with some locally heavy rain
but more scattered late afternoon Sunday and Sunday night.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Thu Aug 25 2016

The extended forecast still looks active with scattered showers and
thunderstorms likely.  Right now the chances for heavy rain looks to
be Monday and Monday night.  Tuesday and Wednesday looks a little
warmer and more isolated showers and thunderstorms.  This will allow
temperatures to get a little warmer and possibility just above
normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Thu Aug 25 2016

Main aviation concern will be storm chances this afternoon and
overnight.

Weak cold front, aided by outflow, is now situated from near KEMP
to east of KWLD and looks to be slowing down. Best chance for
daytime storms will be generally southeast of the KS Turnpike
close to this boundary. Chances for storms will spread northwest
overnight as moisture transport ramps up in the 850-700mb layer.
So for KICT feel best storm chances will be generally after 00z
and closer to 03z with KRSL-KSLN not getting in on the storms til
closer to 06z. Heavy rain and strong wet microburst winds will be
the main threats with the stronger storms. May also see some lower
ceilings affect mainly KRSL-KGBD overnight but with storms around
possibly keeping the low layers mixed, didn`t hit too hard.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    67  84  69  88 /  70  30  40  30
Hutchinson      65  81  68  87 /  60  40  40  30
Newton          65  81  67  86 /  70  40  40  30
ElDorado        66  83  68  87 /  60  40  40  30
Winfield-KWLD   68  87  69  89 /  60  30  40  30
Russell         60  77  64  85 /  40  40  40  30
Great Bend      60  79  65  86 /  40  40  40  30
Salina          63  80  68  86 /  50  40  40  40
McPherson       64  80  67  86 /  60  40  40  40
Coffeyville     70  88  69  90 /  60  40  30  40
Chanute         69  86  69  87 /  60  40  40  40
Iola            69  85  69  87 /  60  40  40  40
Parsons-KPPF    69  86  69  88 /  60  40  30  40

&&

.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Flash Flood Watch from 7 PM CDT this evening through Friday
morning for KSZ051>053-067>072-082-083-091>095.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ELM
LONG TERM...ELM
AVIATION...RBL



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