Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 290455
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1155 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

TONIGHT-SUN:
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO FALL FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET AS WINDS
BRIEFLY DECOUPLE. WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATER THIS EVENING IN
ADVANCE OF APPROACHING FRONT. FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
AREA DURING THE DAY...RESULTING IN GUSTY NORTH WINDS IN ITS WAKE.
THIS HAS PROMPTED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL/SOUTH
CENTRAL KS FOR SUN. DESPITE COLD FRONT PASSAGE...COMBO OF MIXING/
DRY AIR AND DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANOTHER MILD DAY.

SUN NIGHT-MON NIGHT:
AS SURFACE RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA SUN NIGHT...ANTICIPATE
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH LOW TEMPERATURE NEAR NORMALS. DRY
AIR AND GOOD INSOLATION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL
ON MON. RETURN FLOW AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT
IN WARMER MINIMUMS MON NIGHT. COULD SEE SOME CLOUDS ROLL INTO FAR
SOUTHERN SECTIONS TOWARDS DAYBREAK.

TUE-TUE NIGHT:
MOISTURE INCREASES ON TUE WITH SMALL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPING LATE IN THE AFTERNOON NEAR OK BORDER. MODEST CAPE WOULD
ALLOW FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS...BUT LITTLE SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND
MODEST UPPER LIFT...MAY NOT BE ENOUGH TO BREAK CAP. CHANCES WILL
EXPAND A BIT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASE TUE NIGHT...BUT THERE
IS NO STRONG SIGNAL FOR WIDESPREAD/SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION AT
THIS TIME. -HOWERTON

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY THIS PERIOD WITH ECMWF/GFS A BIT
CLOSER WITH DETAILS OF SPLIT FLOW...BUT STILL ENOUGH DIFFERENCES IN
SURFACE PATTERN AND MOISTURE RETURN TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES IN TEMPERATURE/PRECIPITATION FORECAST. CONSENSUS IS TO
PUSH SURFACE FRONT INTO THE AREA BY WED NIGHT...WITH CYCLOGENESIS
ON FRONT IN OK THU NIGHT. WHERE/HOW DEEP/WHAT TRACK WILL
SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT PRECIPITATION CHANCES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHWEST HALF OF FORECAST AREA THIS PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN AT OR ABOVE NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. -HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

SMOKE FROM GRASSLAND BURNING CAUSED VISIBILITIES TO INTERMITTENTLY
DROP TO 6-8 SM ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS THIS EVENING. CURRENT
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LITTLE BURNING ACTIVITY AT THIS
TIME. THEREFORE DO NOT EXPECT SMOKE TO HAVE A SIGNIFICANT
AVIATION IMPACT.

THROUGHOUT THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE
AND GUSTS AROUND 20-25 KT CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL IMPACT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH 00 UTC...THEN
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SUBSIDE. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT MVFR
CEILINGS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT IN SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS...HOWEVER LONGEVITY OF THESE CEILINGS IS UNCERTAIN
THEREFORE HAVE INTRODUCED A TEMPO GROUP AT KHUT AND KICT SUNDAY
MORNING.

JMR

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SUN WILL RESULT IN GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND
GOOD DRYING. WITH GFDI VALUES AT OR ABOVE 50 OVER PARTS OF
CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KS WILL HOIST FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR LATE
SUN MORNING-LATE SUN AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SLIGHTLY
ON MON...BUT ONLY DUE TO LIGHTER WINDS IN THE RETURN FLOW. WARM
TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES OF RAIN BY MID-LATE WEEK SHOULD REDUCE
FUEL AS SPRING GREENUP IS STARTING. -HOWERTON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    49  72  40  72 /   0  10   0   0
HUTCHINSON      49  71  36  73 /   0  10   0   0
NEWTON          49  70  38  71 /  10  10   0   0
ELDORADO        48  71  38  70 /   0  20   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   49  73  41  71 /   0  10   0   0
RUSSELL         50  70  37  76 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      50  70  38  75 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          49  71  36  72 /  10  10   0   0
MCPHERSON       48  70  37  72 /   0  10   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     45  70  39  69 /   0  20   0   0
CHANUTE         44  70  38  68 /  10  20   0   0
IOLA            43  70  38  68 /  10  20   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    45  69  39  69 /   0  20   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 11 AM CDT SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR KSZ032-033-047>051-067-068-082-091.

&&

$$


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