Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 260244
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
944 PM CDT MON JUL 25 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 940 PM CDT Mon Jul 25 2016

Did go ahead and insert some patchy fog over much of the area late
tonight into early Tue morning.

Clearing skies and light upslope winds may result in some patchy
fog late tonight. However, low level moisture profiles do not look
great for widespread dense fog at this time. Current thinking is
that we`ll see sites bounce around in the 4-6SM range generally
after 09z.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Mon Jul 25 2016

The main challenge is convective chances the next few days with a
return to seasonably warm temperatures. A modest recovery in the
airmass in the wake of the morning MCS may be sufficient to allow
a few showers/storms to develop toward 00Z across southern Kansas.
Otherwise, somewhat drier/more stable air will continue to advect
across the I-70 corridor tonight into Tuesday. Diurnal heating
will result in MLCAPE values approaching 2000 J/KG for locations
along/southeast of the turnpike on Tuesday afternoon, so will keep
a modest PoP in these areas. Low level moisture return from
Tuesday night into the mid-week periods in combination with a
periodically disturbed northwest flow regime aloft across the
northern Plains/Midwest may support somewhat better chances for
convection across central and eastern Kansas.

Darmofal

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Mon Jul 25 2016

A transition from a periodically wet northwest flow regime aloft
and seasonably warm temperatures to a hot and dry pattern looks to
develop by late in the weekend into early next week as the upper
ridge builds in earnest again across the central Plains.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 626 PM CDT Mon Jul 25 2016

Main aviation concern will be fog potential late tonight into Tue
morning.

Surface high pressure is centered over western IA with a weak
stationary front draped across northern OK/northern AR. The
better shower and storm chances look to stay generally south of
the forecast area closer to the surface boundary. Main concern
will be fog potential late tonight. Things going for fog tonight
would be clearing skies and light upslope flow with the low level
moisture profile not all that favorable. So for now will insert
some 5-6sm and continue to monitor trends with confidence low in
widespread fog. Outside of early morning fog, confidence is high
that VFR conditions will be in place.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    71  91  71  91 /  20  20  10  20
Hutchinson      68  91  69  91 /  10  10  10  20
Newton          69  90  70  90 /  10  10  10  20
ElDorado        70  89  70  89 /  20  20  10  30
Winfield-KWLD   72  90  72  90 /  20  20  20  20
Russell         67  92  68  92 /  10  10  20  20
Great Bend      67  92  68  92 /  10  10  20  20
Salina          69  93  70  93 /  10  10  20  30
McPherson       68  91  69  91 /  10  10  10  30
Coffeyville     72  91  73  91 /  20  30  20  30
Chanute         71  90  72  90 /  20  20  10  30
Iola            70  90  71  90 /  10  20  10  30
Parsons-KPPF    71  90  72  90 /  20  20  20  30

&&

.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RBL
SHORT TERM...KED
LONG TERM...KED
AVIATION...RBL



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