Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 301726
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1226 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

TODAY-TONIGHT:
RADIATIONAL FOG/STRATUS HAS PROMPTED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA. VISIBILITIES CONTINUE TO TUMBLE ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH THE WORST OF THE FOG EXPECTED IN A BROAD SWATH FROM
ROUGHLY KHUT TO COTTONWOOD FALLS. EXPECT BROKEN CEILINGS WELL
INTO THE AFTERNOON...SO TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO CLIMB. HAVE
BACKED OFF ON MAXES ONCE AGAIN...BUT COULD SEE THEM GOING EITHER
WAY GIVEN HOW MUCH MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
IN ABSENCE OF CONVECTION YESTERDAY IN SE KS...OPTED TO KEEP
FORECAST DRY TODAY/TONIGHT. THIS DESPITE IMPRESSIVE 850MB
DEWPOINTS AND PROXIMITY OF UPPER CIRCULATION. CONVECTION THAT DID
OCCUR JUST OUTSIDE THE FORECAST AREA YESTERDAY SEEMED TO BE
ANCHORED TO 500MB TROUGH. SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT...
BUT PLAN TO LET DAY SHIFT DIAGNOSE THAT CLOSER.

MON-TUE:
ADVERTISED RIDGING STILL LOOKS GOOD THIS PERIOD. MODELS STRUGGLING
ONCE AGAIN WITH TIMING/LOCATION OF MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE AND
RESULTING THREAT OF ELEVATED PRECIPITATION. INHERITED FORECAST WAS
NEARLY DRY...AND TRIMMED BACK A BIT MORE GIVEN UNCERTAINTY AND
LATEST MODEL RUNS. WARMER TEMPERATURES STILL APPEAR ON
TRACK. -HOWERTON

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT SO MADE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO GOING
FORECAST. PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK SLIM GIVEN FASTER FLOW ALOFT
REMAINS NORTHWEST OF THE AREA. BASED ON PATTERN VERIFICATION...
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN INITIALIZATION GRIDS.
-HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

A FEW AREAS OF MVFR CIGS REMAIN HOWEVER VFR IS EXPECTED TO RETURN
AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT
PATCHY MVFR VSBY/CIGS MAY RETURN AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE AREA WITH
LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS AND A RELATIVELY MOIST PBL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    86  66  94  70 /  10   0  10  10
HUTCHINSON      86  64  94  69 /   0   0  10  10
NEWTON          85  65  93  68 /  10  10  10  10
ELDORADO        85  65  92  69 /  10  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   86  66  94  70 /  10   0  10  10
RUSSELL         89  63  98  69 /   0   0  10  10
GREAT BEND      88  63  97  69 /   0   0  10  10
SALINA          85  65  94  69 /   0   0  10  10
MCPHERSON       86  64  93  68 /   0   0  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     86  68  90  70 /  10  10  10  10
CHANUTE         85  67  90  70 /  10  10  10  10
IOLA            84  67  89  69 /  10  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    86  68  90  70 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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