Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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426
FXUS63 KICT 191729
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1229 PM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 153 AM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017

Water Vapor imagery shows the next frontal system approaching the
region this afternoon. Southerly winds will pick up ahead of the
front with the tight pressure gradient. There is weak mid level
trough with some moisture transport along the Oklahoma state line this
morning that is strong enough to support some morning showers and
thunderstorms which should dissipate by mid morning as the
moisture transport weakens. This afternoon the gradient will
tighten up as the front approaches. This will allow boundary
layer winds to mix down to the surface during the afternoon and
are expected to reach advisory level. Despite the proximity of
this weak cold front, moisture transport is very weak and CIN is
rather high. This will keep the shower and thunderstorms chances
down afternoon. Temperatures will not fall much behind the front
and temperatures are expected to remain near or just above normal
for through Thursday. This frontal boundary will be very slow to
move through the region and moisture transport with this front
will remain weak. However, forcing and instability look to improve
by Wednesday afternoon which will bring the chances for some
shower and thunderstorm activity in the eastern portions of the
CWA Wednesday night and early Thursday.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 153 AM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017

Long range continues to be rather warm for this time of year
through Saturday. Return flow from the Gulf of Mexico will
establish itself and allow moisture transport to slowly pick up
ahead of the next frontal system. Both the ECMWF and the GFS
models clearly indicate a rather slow progression for this frontal
system. This will keep southerly flow over the region and
temperatures are expected to remain near or above normal. Kept
POPs in check through Saturday and expect the shower and
thunderstorm risk to increase Sunday and into the Monday. Once
this front finally moves through Sunday afternoon and into Monday,
temperatures will fall below normal for this time of year.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017

VFR conditions are forecast at all sites throughout the period.
Isolated elevated showers are possible at KCNU for the first hour
or so of forecast. Otherwise gusty winds are expected from good
mixing and increasing surface pressure gradient. Front will work
through all but KCNU either very late tonight or tomorrow
morning.  -Howerton

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    94  71  90  71 /  10   0  10  10
Hutchinson      94  70  87  68 /  10   0   0  10
Newton          92  71  88  70 /  10   0  10  10
ElDorado        91  72  90  71 /  10   0  10  20
Winfield-KWLD   93  72  92  72 /  10   0  10  20
Russell         97  61  84  61 /   0   0   0   0
Great Bend      97  62  85  62 /   0   0   0   0
Salina          95  68  87  68 /   0   0   0  10
McPherson       94  70  87  67 /  10   0   0  10
Coffeyville     91  74  92  73 /  30  10  10  20
Chanute         90  72  91  72 /  30  10  10  20
Iola            90  72  90  71 /  20  10  10  20
Parsons-KPPF    91  74  91  73 /  30  10  10  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ032-033-047>053-
067>069-082-083.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ELM
LONG TERM...ELM
AVIATION...PJH



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