Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 071819
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1219 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

SENT OUT AN UPDATE TO INCREASE MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES BASED ON
CURRENT TEMPS ALREADY AT OR A COUPLE DEGREES FROM FORECAST HIGHS.
LAYER OF MID CLOUDS COMING DOWN FROM CENTRAL KS SHOULD SLOW THE
HEATING DOWN A BIT.

LAWSON

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS FOCUS AROUND VERY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS AND
EXTREME GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER BOTH TODAY AND MONDAY.

STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION BY
LATE THIS MORNING...AS A STRONG CLIPPER-LIKE SYSTEM PROGRESSES
ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...DRIVING A COLD FRONT
SOUTH ACROSS MID-AMERICA. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT...DEEP COLD
ADVECTION AND MIXING UP TO AROUND 700MB SHOULD PROMOTE SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AROUND 30 MPH...WITH MAX GUSTS
LIKELY UP AROUND 45 MPH. THEREFORE...HOISTED A WIND ADVISORY FROM
GENERALLY THE FLINT HILLS ON WEST NOON-7PM (SEE FIRE WEATHER
SECTION BELOW FOR FIRE DANGER CONCERNS).

MUCH OF THE SAME IS EXPECTED FOR MONDAY...AND IN FACT WIND SPEEDS
MAY BE A BIT HIGHER GIVEN THE DEEP AND STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW.
FOR NOW...HELD OFF ON A WIND ADVISORY DUE TO INTEROFFICE
COLLABORATION CONSTRAINTS. HOWEVER...FULLY ANTICIPATE EITHER
TODAY`S FORECASTER OR SUNDAY NIGHT`S FORECASTER TO HOIST THE WIND
ADVISORY FOR MONDAY. REFER TO THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR
MONDAY`S FIRE DANGER.

THE CHILLY MODIFIED POLAR AIR WON`T REALLY ARRIVE UNTIL TONIGHT-
MONDAY...SO TODAY`S HIGHS SHOULD REACH WELL INTO THE
50S...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST. MONDAY HIGHS WILL
ONLY REACH THE 30S-40S. ADDITIONALLY...SHOULD SEE POCKETS OF SNOW
FLURRIES LATER TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MAINLY EAST OF THE FLINT
HILLS. ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

ADK

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

WITH A DEEP EASTERN CONUS TROUGH AND WESTERN CONUS RIDGE
REMAINING FIRMLY ENTRENCHED...A TIGHT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL
EXIST FROM WEST-EAST ACROSS THE REGION FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEEK`S
END...RANGING FROM 60S OVER WESTERN KANSAS TO 20S- 30S OVER
NORTHERN MISSOURI. WICHITA`S FORECAST AREA WILL BE SANDWICHED IN
THE MIDDLE...WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S. DRY NORTHWEST
FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT LOW TO NIL PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

ADK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1144 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE STRONG NW WINDS BOTH THIS AFTERNOON
AND ESPECIALLY MON AFTERNOON.

STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS CURRENTLY DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
EASTERN NEBRASKA/IA AND WILL DIVE INTO THE OZARK REGION BY MON
MORNING. VERY STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS
WAVE WILL RESULT IN STRONG NW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY
MON AFTERNOON WHEN WE REACH OUR FULL MIXING. WINDS AT THE TOP OF
MIXING LAYER TODAY WILL BE AROUND 40 MPH AND AROUND 50 MPH BY MON
AFTERNOON. A LAYER OF CLOUDS IN THE 4,000-7,000 RANGE WILL SPREAD
OVER SOUTHEAST KS(KCNU) AROUND SUNRISE WITH CONFIDENCE HIGH THEY
WILL STAY ABOVE IFR LEVELS.

LAWSON


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

HOISTED A RED FLAG WARNING NOON-7PM TODAY GENERALLY FROM THE
FLINT HILLS ON WEST DUE TO EXTREME GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER. EXCLUDED
RUSSELL COUNTY GIVEN ROUGHLY HALF OF THE COUNTY IS STILL SNOW
COVERED. MUCH OF THE SAME AREA WILL BE UNDER THE GUN AGAIN
TOMORROW (MONDAY)...SO HOISTED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH. VERY STRONG
AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE
20S-30S PERCENT TO SUPPORT THE EXTREME GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER
TODAY-MONDAY.

ADK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    30  43  25  51 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      28  43  25  50 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          28  40  24  47 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        28  41  24  48 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   29  44  25  52 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         25  35  24  48 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      27  38  25  50 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          28  41  24  46 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       28  40  24  48 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     31  42  26  48 /  10   0   0   0
CHANUTE         30  40  24  44 /  10  10   0   0
IOLA            30  38  24  42 /  10  10   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    30  41  24  45 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR KSZ033-047>052-
067>069-082-083-091>093.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR KSZ050-051-067>069-082-083-091>094-098.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR KSZ032-033-047>053-
067>069-082-083-091>093.

&&

$$


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