Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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040
FXUS63 KICT 101147
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
547 AM CST Sat Dec 10 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 259 AM CST Sat Dec 10 2016

Low clouds and effects on temperatures will be the main challenge
for today. Expecting low clouds to remain in place over southeast
Kansas for much of the day, and additional low clouds to develop
over central/south central Kansas this morning. Overnight
temperatures will not be as cold with southerly winds keeping values
near or above freezing over southern Kansas. Still see a signal in
the models with increasing moisture trying to saturate the low-
levels for late tonight/Sunday morning. Which could give way to
drizzle. Warmer above normal temperatures will return on Monday with
downslope effects boosting daytime highs, especially over central
Kansas where temperatures look to warm into the 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 259 AM CST Sat Dec 10 2016

Confidence remains high for cold below normal temperatures to
prevail this period across Kansas as arctic airmass locks in place
over the northern plains. There is a chance for light snow over
central Kansas for Tuesday night/Wednesday. Meanwhile heading into
the Thursday/Friday period GFS/ECMWF models diverge on their
timing/evolution of the synoptic pattern, however both models do
show a chance for some winter precipitation to occur late next
week. GFS model has a scenario that looks more hazardous with
regards to winter precipitation but we will not put too much
stock scenario at this juncture. Prefer to wait and see if there
is better consistency on the next couple of runs between the
GFS/ECMWF models.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 547 AM CST Sat Dec 10 2016

VFR conditions are expected most locations for the first 12-18
hours. The only exception will be over SE KS near the KCNU taf site
where some scattered MVFR cigs may be possible for the afternoon
hours.

Low-mid level moisture will continue to stream to the north into the
evening hours, as southerly winds continue. As the moisture deepens,
could see a chance of drizzle across south Central Kansas and
southeast Kansas by early Sun morning. The chance of this still
appears to be too low to mention in the Tafs for now, but may need
to be inserted in later Taf issuances.

Ketcham

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    42  34  47  24 /   0   0  10   0
Hutchinson      42  32  44  22 /   0   0   0   0
Newton          41  33  44  23 /   0   0  10   0
ElDorado        40  34  49  24 /   0  10  10   0
Winfield-KWLD   42  36  51  25 /   0  10  10   0
Russell         41  27  40  21 /   0   0   0   0
Great Bend      43  28  42  21 /   0   0   0   0
Salina          40  29  42  20 /   0   0   0   0
McPherson       41  31  43  21 /   0   0   0   0
Coffeyville     41  37  53  27 /   0  20  20  10
Chanute         40  34  50  24 /   0  10  20  10
Iola            40  33  48  24 /   0  10  20  10
Parsons-KPPF    41  37  52  26 /   0  10  20  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDJ
LONG TERM...CDJ
AVIATION...BDK



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