Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 291151
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
651 AM CDT FRI JUL 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 304 AM CDT Fri Jul 29 2016

Storms should continue generally along and west of I-135 early
this morning in an area of decent mid level theta-e advection.
Should see an overall decrease in activity near or shortly after
sunrise, as the bulk of it pushes into OK. Not overly excited
about daytime convection with the better focus staying south of
the forecast area which is also where the better instability will
be situated. Should see another MCS tonight with the good 850-700mb
moisture transport over the southwest portions of the forecast
area and down into western OK. Shear isn`t nearly as good as it
was Thu evening but can`t rule out some 50-55 mph winds and small
hail with any of the stronger storms tonight.

A lot of what occurs on Sat will be dependent on boundaries
generated from tonight`s convection. Both GFS and NAM are hinting
at an instability axis thorough western KS and into western
portions of the forecast area. While there isn`t a more synoptic
boundary to focus on, feel storms should develop over the high
Plains Sat afternoon and try and work east into the evening hours.
Another night of mid level theta-e advection will setup for Sat
night with a slight eastward shift to any mcs activity.

Below normal temps can be expected for both today and Sat and with
saturated ground today, feel confident that most sites will not
make it out of the 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 304 AM CDT Fri Jul 29 2016

Upper ridging will start to build east into the southern Plains
Sun into the start of the work week. This will push the better
storm chances east of the forecast area and return the area back
to above normal temps. With 850mb temps getting back into the
25-30 degree range, should see areas along and west of I-135 get
back to near the century mark by Mon with this pattern remaining
through most of the work week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 650 AM CDT Fri Jul 29 2016

Sct TSRA ocrg acrs SC KS & to a lesser extent Cntrl KS shud clear
these areas ~15Z. Lmtd coverage dictates "VCTS" assignment to KICT
& KHUT. One wl encounter sct Stratus ~1,000ft at KGBD & KRSL til
~15Z. Sct-bkn 3,500-5,000ft Cumulus wl pop up ~18Z. Sct TSRA shud
redvlp tngt, primarily acrs Srn KS. The 18Z & 30/00Z issuances wl
discuss these issues in greater detail.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    85  69  88  72 /  40  30  30  30
Hutchinson      84  68  88  71 /  40  30  30  30
Newton          84  67  87  71 /  30  30  30  30
ElDorado        84  68  86  71 /  40  30  30  30
Winfield-KWLD   86  70  88  73 /  40  40  30  30
Russell         83  66  88  69 /  30  30  20  30
Great Bend      82  66  88  70 /  30  30  30  30
Salina          86  67  87  71 /  30  30  20  30
McPherson       84  67  87  70 /  30  30  20  30
Coffeyville     87  70  86  72 /  50  30  30  40
Chanute         85  68  85  72 /  30  30  30  40
Iola            85  68  85  71 /  20  20  20  40
Parsons-KPPF    86  69  86  72 /  40  30  30  40

&&

.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RBL
LONG TERM...RBL
AVIATION...EPS


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