Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 250845
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
245 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES DOWN
INTO SW TX. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY
TRACKING SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN ALBERTA. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE IS SITUATED OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES WITH LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

CONDITIONS TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO MON WITH GUSTY NW WINDS AND
NEAR NORMAL TEMPS. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS THE
UPPER IMPULSE APPROACHES FROM THE NW. THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER
SOUTHERN ALBERTA WILL MOVE VERY QUICKLY SOUTHEAST AND WILL BE
APPROACHING SOUTHERN NEBRASKA BY 00Z WED. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING
INCREASING MID CLOUDS AND MAYBE SOME SPRINKLES TO CENTRAL KS AS IT
SLIDES SOUTHEAST. BY 12Z WED THIS IMPULSE WILL BE APPROACHING THE
OZARK REGION. NW FLOW ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE WED AND THU BEHIND
THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE. THE POLAR AIR BEHIND THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO
PRIMARILY AFFECT THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND NORTHERN PLAINS.
THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPS COOLER THAN NORMAL BUT BY ONLY A FEW
DEGREES FOR BOTH WED AND THU. CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT WE ARE
NOT LOOKING AT ANY WEATHER RELATED TRAVEL ISSUES FOR BOTH WED AND
THU.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

STRONG ZONAL FLOW WILL BE OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS IN TRACKING
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA ON FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT.
THIS WILL ALLOW POLAR AIR TO SPILL SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS SAT...POSSIBLY MAKING IT DOWN TO OUR AREA BY SUN. IT STILL
DOESN`T LOOK LIKE WE WILL BE DEALING WITH ANY IMPACTFUL WINTER
WEATHER THROUGH THESE EXTENDED PERIODS.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1111 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

VFR WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SURFACE HIGH WILL
ENVELOPE THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT...BEFORE SHIFTING EAST ON
TUESDAY...GIVING WAY TO LEE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT. LIGHT NORTHWEST
WINDS TONIGHT...WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY TUESDAY WITH GUSTS OF
20-25 KNOTS IN CENTRAL KANSAS. A CLIPPER-TYPE DISTURBANCE WILL
TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS
FEATURE WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS TUESDAY
NIGHT.

JMC


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    50  33  48  25 /   0  10  10   0
HUTCHINSON      50  33  48  23 /   0  10   0   0
NEWTON          48  33  44  24 /   0  10  10   0
ELDORADO        51  34  47  26 /   0  10  10   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   49  33  49  26 /   0  10   0   0
RUSSELL         52  30  45  20 /   0  10   0   0
GREAT BEND      51  31  46  21 /   0  10   0   0
SALINA          51  33  46  22 /   0  10  10   0
MCPHERSON       50  33  45  23 /   0  10  10   0
COFFEYVILLE     49  34  50  26 /   0  10  10   0
CHANUTE         47  32  48  25 /   0  10  10   0
IOLA            46  32  46  24 /   0  10  10   0
PARSONS-KPPF    49  33  49  24 /   0  10  10   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$


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