Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 141148
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
548 AM CST Sat Jan 14 2017

...Updated for 12z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 306 AM CST Sat Jan 14 2017

Initial round of very light freezing rain lifted NE across the
forecast late this evening, with widely scattered sprinkles still
around. Latest surface obs show temps still in the middle 20s, so
even with the very light amounts, roads and elevated surfaces may
still become very slick. Could see a lull in the precip/freezing
rain for the early morning hours for most locations, as most of the
forecast area will be in between mid level impulses and associated
lift. The only exception may be along the KS/OK border where some
lingering very light precip/freezing rain may continue to lead to
problems through this morning.

Even with the light precip start, most areas will not be "out of the
woods", as the initial areas of light rain didn`t move surface temps
much. Most areas remain in the mid-upper 20s, with only a gradual
warmup in temps expected for the daytime hours today, even with the
stout warm advection/moisture transport expected over the area ahead
of the main shortwave expected to move through nrn Mexico.  As this
widespread lift/moisture increases across the plains late this
afternoon/this evening, think a round of heavier precip will lift
northeast out of OK and panhandle of TX for late this afternoon
through tonight and overspread much of the forecast area.

This time period is when the Ice storm will really bring its full
force to the area, as surface temps will still be in the 26-29
degree range across most of forecast area, especially for areas west
of the KS turnpike. Latest model trends unfortunately suggest colder
surface temps than previously suggested, which would increase
confidence in the potential for a crippling ice storm for most of
Central KS.  The real question will be where the southeastern cutoff
to the major accumulating ice will be. Current short range hi-res
models, including the latest ECMWF/NAM-Wrf, suggest some warming
(but not as much as previously thought) of the surface will occur
for areas across SE KS later today. Even a temp nudge of the few
degrees for areas southeast of the KS turnpike will be critical for
where the demarcation line, between crippling freezing rain
accumulation and light glazing will occur and even where just light
rain will occur. Prefer to go with the colder model solutions, with
the latest GFS looking too agressive with the warmup.

With that said, current thoughts suggest that areas along and west
of the KS Turnpike (possibly including the Wichita Metro area) will
get the most ice accumulation by Sunday morning, with 0.5 to 1 inch
amounts on trees and power lines, with areas near Great Bend, and
Hutchinson hit the hardest.  This could lead to power outages of
numerous days if this much ice accumulates. Still expecting glazing
amounts of 1/4 to 1/2 an inch for even areas east of the Turnpike,
but the saving grace for this area, will be temps climbing to near
freezing late tonight or early sunday, which will lead to alot
of the rain running off, due to latent heat release effects.

The nrn Mexico shortwave will take on more of a negative tilt as it
moves across the srn plains on Sunday, with the northern plains
surface high (and cold advection that has been plaguing us) pushing
off to the east. This will lead to surface temps across most of srn
KS, finally modifying and warming for the daytime hours on Sunday.
This will lead to the freezing rain coming to end for most areas for
Sunday. As this shortwave lifts north, still expecting widespread
rain showers (possibly even some heavy rainfall) to move across the
forecast area for Sun through Sun night.  Still thinking some
freezing rain may linger along I-70 for the daytime on Sunday, as
temps slowly climb towards freezing.  Will hold onto the Ice storm
warning the longest over Central KS with this mind. Will also have
to keep an eye on this heavy rainfall chance for Sunday thru Sunday
night, as frozen streams/ground may lead to lots of runoff and some
possible localized flooding.

Latest model solutions suggest that the shortwave will finally lift
NE of the area on Monday, with possibly some lingering showers for
the daytime hours on Mon.  Expect the warming trend on the eastern
side of this system to continue on Mon as well, with most of ern KS
climbing into the lower 50s to possibly 60 degrees.

Ketcham

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 306 AM CST Sat Jan 14 2017

Model consensus strongly supports well above normal temperatures mid
to late week, as longwave troughing digs across the western states.
Details regarding when/where individual pieces of energy within the
longwave trough eject onto Mid-America remain unclear this far out,
along with associated precipitation chances. However, latest
operational GFS suggests one piece of energy could affect southeast
Kansas Thursday night, with a potentially more substantial upper
system by Saturday-Sunday. At this time, thermal profiles appear
warm enough for all rain with any precipitation that may fall late
week into the weekend.

ADK

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 547 AM CST Sat Jan 14 2017

Main forecast concern will be freezing drizzle potential this
morning over southeast Kansas, with freezing rain potential
increasing areawide from the southwest later this afternoon and
this evening. Additionally, IFR ceilings early this morning over
southeast Kansas should improve to MVFR by mid to late morning,
with MVFR to low VFR persisting through the day areawide.
Widespread precipitation mostly in the form of freezing rain will
impact the region overnight, although temperatures should warm
enough for all rain over far southern Kansas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    31  29  38  37 /  70  90  70  90
Hutchinson      30  26  35  33 /  50  90  80  90
Newton          30  26  36  34 /  50  90  80  90
ElDorado        32  28  38  37 /  60  90  80  90
Winfield-KWLD   33  29  42  41 /  70  80  70  80
Russell         29  24  31  28 /  30  70  70  90
Great Bend      29  25  32  29 /  40  80  80  90
Salina          32  25  33  32 /  30  80  80  90
McPherson       30  26  34  33 /  40  90  80  90
Coffeyville     34  31  45  44 /  70  80  70  90
Chanute         32  30  41  40 /  70  90  80  90
Iola            31  29  39  38 /  60  90  80  90
Parsons-KPPF    33  31  45  43 /  70  90  70  90

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Ice Storm Warning until 3 AM CST Sunday for KSZ096-098>100.

Ice Storm Warning until noon CST Sunday for KSZ051-052-067-068.

Ice Storm Warning until noon CST Sunday for KSZ053-069>072-082-
083-091>095.

Ice Storm Warning from noon today to 6 AM CST Monday for KSZ032-
033-047-048.

Ice Storm Warning until 6 AM CST Monday for KSZ049-050.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BDK
LONG TERM...BDK
AVIATION...ADK



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