Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 221716
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1216 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST
CONUS EXTENDING INTO THE APPALACHIANS. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE IS TRACKING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND IS APPROACHING
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
WESTERN ND DOWN INTO EASTERN CO WITH HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT
LAKES INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

SHOWERS AND AN ISO STORM ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD WEST TO EAST
TODAY AS THE SHORTWAVE QUICKLY PROGRESSES EAST. PRECIP WILL START
TO AFFECT WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THE OPEN NATURE AND FAST
MOVEMENT OF THIS IMPULSE WILL LIMIT ANY HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WITH
MOST SITES PICKING UP LESS THAN A HALF INCH. EVEN WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TODAY. BY THUR
MORNING ONLY EASTERN KS WILL STILL BE EXPERIENCING PRECIP.

AFTER THE PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT THE MAIN WEATHER
STORY WILL BE EXTREMELY WARM TEMPS FOR FRI AND SAT. MODELS REMAIN
CONSISTENT WITH 850MB TEMPS IN THE 18 TO 20C RANGE WHICH SHOULD
GIVE HIGHS ON BOTH DAYS IN THE 85 TO 90 DEGREE RANGE...ESPECIALLY
WITH SOME DOWNSLOPE LIKELY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

THE ECMWF AND GFS CONTINUE TO AGREE ON BRINGING SOME SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ONSHORE SUN AND ACROSS THE ROCKIES SUN NIGHT INTO MON. THE
ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE MORE ROBUST IN DIGGING THIS FEATURE WHICH
WOULD RESULT IN MORE PRECIP FOR THE AREA MON INTO MON NIGHT.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE MODEL DISCREPANCIES...WILL NOT HIT THE POP
THROTTLE TOO HARD AT THIS POINT. REGARDLESS OF WHICH ONE VERIFIES
FEEL CONFIDENT WE ARE NOT LOOKING HEAVY RAIN DUE TO THE
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS FEATURE. A WEAK COLD FRONT BEHIND THE
SHORTWAVE SHOULD KNOCK TEMPS BACK DOWN TO SEASONAL NORMALS BY TUE.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT INTO
EARLY THURSDAY. WEAK MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TRANSPORT WILL OCCUR
NORTHWARD AS THIS UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS. SCATTERED-BROKEN
LIGHT SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDER SHOULD DEVELOP EASTWARD INTO
CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...PUSHING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENING...AIDED SOME BY EXPECTED RAIN AND LIGHT
SOUTH WINDS SHOULD RESULT IN AREAS OF IFR CIGS/VSBYS DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    80  58  79  57 /  40  50  10   0
HUTCHINSON      79  57  77  56 /  50  60  10   0
NEWTON          79  58  76  57 /  40  50  10   0
ELDORADO        80  60  77  57 /  40  50  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   79  59  75  57 /  30  50  10  10
RUSSELL         77  51  74  54 /  60  60   0   0
GREAT BEND      77  52  75  54 /  60  60   0   0
SALINA          80  56  75  55 /  60  70   0   0
MCPHERSON       79  57  75  55 /  50  60  10   0
COFFEYVILLE     78  56  73  54 /  10  40  30  10
CHANUTE         77  57  76  55 /  20  50  30  10
IOLA            76  57  75  54 /  20  50  30  10
PARSONS-KPPF    77  57  75  54 /  10  40  30  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







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