Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 050442
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1142 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 951 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

MID LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS WRN KS AT
THIS TIME...FOR AREAS JUST TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA.  STILL
NOT ALOT OF FOCUS AS MID LEVEL LIFT IS LACKING...WITH WARM MID LEVEL
TEMPS KEEPING ANY CONVECTION FROM FORMING.  SOME QUESTION ON WHETHER
THIS MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL SHIFT EAST AT ALL OVERNIGHT...THUS
KEEPING CONVECTIVE CHANCES AT A MINIMUM OR POSSIBLY NOT AT ALL
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

HAVE CUT BACK ON POPS FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 135 FOR
NOW...DELAYING THE POPS UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT.  WILL LEAVE SOME POPS
IN FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON SUN FOR NOW...AS STILL THINK AN
ISOLATED STORM CHANCE EXISTS IN CENTRAL KS AND POSSIBLY SOUTH
CENTRAL KS.

KETCHAM

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

MAIN CHALLENGE IN SHORT TERM IS CONVECTIVE CHANCES/TRENDS TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING...AND THEN RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. A VERY PLEASANT
INDEPENDENCE DAY IS UNDER WAY ACROSS THE AREA. MODEST BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE AND DIURNAL HEATING HAS RESULTED IN A COUPLE AREAS
OF CUMULUS WHERE WEAK TO MODEST INSTABILITY IS PRESENT. A RATHER
WEAK UPPER TROF OR SHEAR AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS THRU EARLY TONIGHT. MODEST
ELEVATED MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL DEVELOP WITHIN THE LOW LEVEL JET
AS IT GRADUALLY VEER OUT ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS BY EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. THERE IS NO GENERAL CONSENSUS IN THE VARIOUS SHORT TERM
MODELS WITH REGARD TO SPATIAL OR TEMPORAL TRENDS WITH POTENTIAL
CONVECTION OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE PLAINS. WHETHER ANY LATE DAY
CONVECTION OFF TO OUR NORTHWEST MAKES IT INTO CENTRAL KANSAS OR
NOT THIS EVENING...THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW LEVEL JET AND MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WITH WEAK TO LITTLE CAPPING MAY ALLOW FOR SOME NOCTURNAL
CONVECTION OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. SO WILL STAY THE COURSE
WITH THE MODEST CHANCE POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. OTHERWISE A
WINDY AND MUCH WARMER DAY IS ON TAP FOR SUNDAY.

THE MAIN FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS A
SEASONALLY STRONG UPPER TROF MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND MIDWEST...WITH THE ATTENDANT SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING
ACROSS KANSAS. AS THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER ALLUDED TO...THE RATHER
HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF
TRAINING CONVECTION WILL LIKELY LEAD TO HEAVY RAINFALL. WHILE
CONVECTION WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN
KANSAS...WILL GENERALLY SHOW A DECREASE IN POPS FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA.

DARMOFAL

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THERE MAY BE A BRIEF LULL IN PRECIP CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE I-70 CORRIDOR. HOWEVER THE
RETREATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH PERIODIC SHORTWAVES IN THE WEAK
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SHOULD GIVE RISE TO RENEWED CHANCES INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF IS A BIT MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH ITS UPPER RIDGING SCENARIO BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...THOUGH THE OVERALL MEDIUM RANGE TRENDS CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT DIMINISHING PRECIP CHANCES AND A RETURN TO THE USUAL
SUMMER CLIMO HEAT.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT INTO
SUN MORNING.  THE ONLY CONCERN WILL BE EARLY SUN MORNING ACROSS
CENTRAL KS...AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES.  THIS
INCREASED MOISTURE MAY LEAD TO AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO TO DEVELOP
ACROSS CENTRAL KS. BUT LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AS ONLY MODEST MOISTURE
TRANSPORT IS EXPECTED...WITH HI-RES SHORT TERM MODELS ALL OVER THE
PLACE ON WHETHER ANYTHING WILL OCCUR.

WILL GO WITH A VCTS FOR KRSL BETWEEN 09-14Z/SUN...BUT CONFIDENCE
ISNT THAT HIGH.  COULD EVEN SEE A STRAY STORM TRY TO DEVELOP OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL KS AS WELL...BUT CHANCES SEEM TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO
INCLUDE ANY MENTION IN THE KICT/KHUT/KSLN TAFS.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    71  95  74  88 /  30  30  10  60
HUTCHINSON      70  96  73  87 /  30  30  20  70
NEWTON          70  95  72  87 /  30  30  10  70
ELDORADO        70  93  73  88 /  30  30  10  60
WINFIELD-KWLD   70  94  74  91 /  30  30  10  50
RUSSELL         70  98  72  82 /  30  20  40  70
GREAT BEND      69  97  72  83 /  30  20  30  70
SALINA          70  97  73  85 /  30  30  20  70
MCPHERSON       71  95  72  86 /  30  30  20  70
COFFEYVILLE     69  91  73  90 /  20  20  10  30
CHANUTE         68  91  72  88 /  10  20  10  40
IOLA            69  91  72  88 /  10  20  10  40
PARSONS-KPPF    69  91  73  89 /  10  20  10  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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