Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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149
FXUS63 KICT 120543
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1143 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

THE NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THIS PERIOD WITH A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL
PUSH MUCH COLDER AIR SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS...WITH COLD BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SPREADING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS KANSAS ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY. MEANWHILE...MODELS SHOW A
COUPLE UPPER LEVEL WAVES RACING ACROSS KANSAS FOR SUNDAY/SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THE NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW REGIME. THIS NORTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN HAS PUSHED THE DEEPER GULF MOISTURE WELL SOUTH NEAR THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND RETURN OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE SUNDAY WAVES
WILL BE OF POOR QUALITY. THEREFORE ONLY EXPECTING LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TO AFFECT SOUTHEAST KANSAS...WITH RAIN SHOWERS OR A
LIGHT WINTER MIXTURE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT A PATTERN CHANGE IS IN STORE FOR THE
REGION NEXT WEEK...AS LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW UPPER UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE MIGRATING FROM THE ROCKIES OUT ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE
COUNTRY. THIS WILL BRING WARMER AIR BACK TO KANSAS AND TEMPERATURES
COULD GET QUITE WARM FOR MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

MVFR CIGS NOW FORECAST DURING THE MORNING AT KRSL/KSLN WITH A
CLOSE CALL AT KGBD/KHUT. NEWER RUC/NAM RUNS SHOWING A BIT BETTER
SIGNAL FOR LOW CLOUDS CURRENTLY IN FAR NORTHEAST KS TO MOVE INTO
CENTRAL KS. SIMILAR TO TODAY...WILL TRIM BACK SPATIALLY AND
EXTEND TEMPORALLY THE EXTENT OF THE CLOUDS. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH WINDS CONTINUING TO VEER. UPSLOPE
CLOUDS MAY REDEVELOP AT KRSL AFTER SUNSET...BUT CONFIDENCE IS A
BIT TOO LOW TO JUMP ON IT THIS AT THIS TIME. -HOWERTON

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 236 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN LOWER FOR FRIDAY INTO THE EARLY
NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER FIRE WEATHER LEVELS COULD RISE FOR TUESDAY-
THURSDAY NEXT WEEK AS TEMPERATURES WARM AND SOUTH WINDS INCREASE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    31  45  19  37 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      29  44  17  37 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          30  42  16  34 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        30  43  18  35 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   31  47  19  38 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         30  39  17  35 /   0   0   0  10
GREAT BEND      30  42  18  37 /   0   0   0  10
SALINA          29  39  16  35 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       27  42  17  35 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     29  46  18  38 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         28  43  15  34 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            28  42  13  32 /   0   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    26  45  16  36 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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