Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KICT 161755
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1255 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL ZONE MAY RESULT IN
PATCHY LIGHT DRIZZLE EARLY THIS MORNING OVER FAR
SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST KS. OTHERWISE...PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
ARE ANTICIPATED TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
KS...AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS SURGING BACK NORTHEAST IN
RESPONSE TO A SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST. INCREASED ASCENT ON NOSE OF STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET
SHOULD RESULT IN INCREASED SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
TONIGHT--WEDNESDAY MORNING...PRIMARILY EAST OF A LINE FROM
LINCOLN-WICHITA-WINFIELD AFTER MIDNIGHT. INSTABILITY/SHEAR COMBO
WILL FAVOR DIME SIZE HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH THE
STRONGEST ACTIVITY. REINFORCING CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING
SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS IS EXPECTED TO SHARPEN THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE KANSAS REGION...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN
CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WEDNESDAY--THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY
NORTHEAST OF A LINE FROM GREAT BEND-WICHITA-WINFIELD WEDNESDAY
EVENING--THURSDAY MORNING. MODEST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT COUPLED
WITH DECENT INSTABILITY COULD FAVOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.
IN THE TEMPERATURE DEPARTMENT...READINGS WILL WARM BACK INTO THE
80S-90S WED-THU...AS WESTERN CONUS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES THE
REGION.

ADK

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

AN INTERESTING SYNOPTIC SETUP MAY ARRIVE FOR THE WEEKEND...AS
REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ODILE CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL BAJA
PENINSULA PROGRESS NORTHEAST...EVENTUALLY PHASING WITH A DEEP
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. ADD THE ARRIVAL OF A STRONG
COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT--SATURDAY
EVENING. TROPICAL CONNECTION AND ASSOCIATED HIGH PRECIPITABLE
WATERS AND POOR LAPSE RATES SHOULD TEMPER SEVERE
CHANCES...ALTHOUGH IT WILL FAVOR LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IN
SHORT AMOUNTS OF TIME. HOWEVER...NOT ANTICIPATING A PROLONGED
EVENT AS SYNOPTIC FEATURES SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE. THE
SLOWER MODEL SOLUTIONS OFTEN VERIFY THE BEST WITH SYSTEMS LIKE
THIS...SO DON`T BE SURPRISED IF THIS SYSTEM SLOWS DOWN A BIT.
COOLER FALL-LIKE TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED IN WAKE OF THIS
SYSTEM SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK.

ADK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS TO
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS MAY GUST INTO THE 12-17KT RANGE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS. MVFR/AREAS OF IFR ARE EXPECTED
TO RETURN TONIGHT AS ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA.
THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP
AFTER 07-09Z POSSIBLY IMPACTING KSLN-KCNU HOWEVER THE BETTER
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOW
LEVEL SSW WINDS WILL RETURN ON WED ALLOWING CLOUDS TO DIMINISH
FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    77  65  89  66 /  10  20  20  20
HUTCHINSON      76  64  88  65 /  10  20  20  30
NEWTON          75  63  85  64 /  10  20  20  30
ELDORADO        76  63  86  65 /  10  30  20  30
WINFIELD-KWLD   78  66  89  67 /  10  20  10  20
RUSSELL         76  62  85  64 /  10  10  20  30
GREAT BEND      76  63  88  64 /  10  10  20  30
SALINA          74  62  84  65 /  10  20  20  40
MCPHERSON       75  63  85  64 /  10  20  20  30
COFFEYVILLE     77  64  85  66 /  10  30  30  30
CHANUTE         75  61  82  64 /  10  30  30  40
IOLA            74  60  81  63 /  10  30  30  40
PARSONS-KPPF    76  63  84  65 /  10  30  30  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.