Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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173
FXUS63 KICT 231806
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
106 PM CDT FRI SEP 23 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 220 AM CDT Fri Sep 23 2016

A vigorous mid/upper trough over the Central Great
Basin/Southwest states is progged to move eastward into the
Central Rockies through the day today. Southerly flow will
increase ahead of this system allowing low level moisture to surge
north across the forecast area tonight. Low lvl moisture
transport/isentropic upglide will bring increasing chances for
showers and storms after 08-10z with higher probabilities arriving
during the afternoon hours on Saturday as the PAC front moves into
central KS. As large-scale forcing for ascent increases in a
weakly capped airmass...showers and thunderstorms are expected to
develop becoming more numerous along and east of the PAC front
where MLCAPEs of 800-1000+ J/KG will be juxtaposed with 0-6km
bulk shear around 30 kts. This may support a few strong to severe
storms although the primary threat may be locally heavy rain as
PWATs climb above 1.75" while warm cloud depths are progged to
exceed 3500 meters.

Much cooler, drier air will spread in behind the cold on Sunday
bringing a rapid demise to the precipitation during the day on
Sunday. Highs will struggle to rise above the low 70s with values
remaining 9-10 degrees below normal on Sunday afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 220 AM CDT Fri Sep 23 2016

A dry post-frontal regime is anticipated at the beginning of the
period with any lingering precipitation expected to remain south
across the Southern Plains. A subtle warming trend is anticipated
through the week with temperatures returning to climate normals by
the middle of the week. Another more progressive shortwave trough
may impact the area toward the end of the week and maintained low
pops across mainly central KS late Thu.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 104 PM CDT Fri Sep 23 2016

VFR conditions are likely at all sites through this evening. Low
level moisture will continue to stream north tonight, with
precipitation likely breaking out in the vicinity of KRSL/KGBD
before 1200 UTC.  Precipitation could start as early as 0600 UTC,
but chances high enough to mention are closer to 1200 UTC. Some
chance that MVFR ceilings could develop around daybreak with
increasing low level moisture, but at this point, only NAM is
hinting at they would be that low. -Howerton

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    90  71  84  63 /   0  30  60  80
Hutchinson      92  70  84  61 /   0  40  60  80
Newton          89  70  84  61 /   0  30  60  80
ElDorado        88  70  85  63 /   0  20  60  80
Winfield-KWLD   90  71  87  64 /   0  20  60  80
Russell         94  67  83  55 /   0  50  50  50
Great Bend      94  67  84  57 /   0  50  50  50
Salina          92  70  85  60 /   0  30  60  80
McPherson       90  70  84  60 /   0  30  60  80
Coffeyville     90  70  89  67 /   0  10  40  80
Chanute         89  69  85  66 /   0  10  40  80
Iola            87  68  85  66 /   0  10  40  80
Parsons-KPPF    89  70  88  67 /   0  10  40  80

&&

.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MWM
LONG TERM...MWM
AVIATION...PJH



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