Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 271121
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
621 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

THE MID/UPPER TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR THE RECENT ACTIVE WEATHER IS
PROGGED TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
STATES TODAY. MAINTAINED MORNING POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KS
WHERE STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES WILL LINGER EARLY IN THE PERIOD
UNDER THE MID/UPPER TROUGH. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO MORE
SEASONABLE VALUES WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOW 70S.

A MID/UPPER RIDGE WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS
ON THURSDAY WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS BECOMING EAST AS LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING OVER THE GREAT BASIN AREA. ANOTHER SEASONABLY MILD DAY
IS ANTICIPATED WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S WITH DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS.

BY FRIDAY...DIFFLUENT MID/UPPER FLOW WILL DEVELOP DOWNSTREAM ACROSS
THE AREA AS THE MID/UPPER TROUGH LIFTS OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
THIS WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR DEEP MOIST CONVECTION TO THE
REGION. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AS THE
TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED BUT THERE REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCES
IN TIMING BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS A SLOW MOVING MID/UPPER TROUGH
MEANDERS OVER THE ROCKIES AND IS PROGGED TO SHEAR EASTWARD THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. MAINTAINED LOW POPS AND SEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 622 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED UNDER THE UPPER LOW AS IT MOVES
FROM CENTRAL KANSAS NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION LATER TODAY.
MVFR CIGS WILL AFFECT MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH VFR
EXPECTED BY THE AFTERNOON AND REST OF THE FORECAST VALID PERIOD.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TODAY
AND CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING.

KED

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

RECENT RAIN AND GREEN FUELS WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN THIS
WEEK WILL RESULT IN MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    70  47  71  52 /  10   0   0  50
HUTCHINSON      67  43  69  50 /  20   0   0  50
NEWTON          68  45  69  50 /  10   0   0  40
ELDORADO        69  47  71  51 /  10  10   0  40
WINFIELD-KWLD   72  47  73  54 /  10   0   0  50
RUSSELL         62  40  65  46 /  30   0  10  50
GREAT BEND      63  40  66  47 /  20   0  10  60
SALINA          63  44  68  48 /  20  10  10  40
MCPHERSON       66  43  69  49 /  20   0   0  40
COFFEYVILLE     74  51  75  55 /  10  10   0  20
CHANUTE         72  49  73  53 /  20  10  10  20
IOLA            72  49  73  53 /  20  10  10  20
PARSONS-KPPF    73  50  74  54 /  20  10   0  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MWM
LONG TERM...MWM
AVIATION...KED
FIRE WEATHER...MWM



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