Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 202331
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
631 PM CDT SAT AUG 20 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 315 PM CDT Sat Aug 20 2016

This afternoon, large, but not overly strong, high pressure
continues to spread slowly E toward the Great Plains. The high,
centered along the SW SD/NW Nebraska border, is producing a
sufficiently tight Nly gradient to produce 10-20 mph winds across
KICT Country that are teaming with "cold air" Stratocu to limit
temperatures to the 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Sat Aug 20 2016

Rest Of The Weekend:
There`ll be very nice weather as the afore-mentioned high
pressure dominates. As the high pushes E toward the MS Valley on
Sun, Sly winds will quickly return to the Wrn Plains to enable
temperatures to rebound into the mid 80s.

Mon-Tue Night:
A strengthening mid-upper deck shortwave, that`ll be situated
over British Columbia Sunday Night, will experience rapid
cyclogenesis as it moves SLOWLY E across the B.C./Alberta border
Mon Afternoon. This would induce a secondary mid-level shortwave
to develop over CO & NM which in turn would promote rapid sfc
troffing across the Wrn Plains. Gulf moisture would then quickly
surge N (obviously) & reach into KS Mon Eve. All would combine to
produce the next round of thunderstorms that should spread from TX
& OK Mon Eve that is still scheduled to arrive extreme SC/SE KS
late Mon Night. Showers & thunderstorms will steadily increase,
especially across the Ern half of KS, Tue & Tue Night as the by
now developed sfc low moves slowly E into Wrn KS in response to
the occluding mid- upper cyclone drifting E toward the
Saskatchewan/Manitoba border.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Sat Aug 20 2016

Wed-Thu:
With the overall pattern continuing to make slow ewd progress
rainy weather will persist both periods. The progged strength &
positioning of the mid-level shortwave would induce sufficient
lift to produce strong thunderstorms, especially Wed Night when
the next SE-moving cold front is scheduled to cross most of KICT
Country. It appears the cold front would make sufficient se
progress to confine any precipitation Thu Morning to SE KS as high
pressure surges into KS around midday. As such PoPs have been
lowered across the board. (In fact they`ve have been removed from
Central KS altogether.)

Thu Night-Sat:
The biggest change was to remove all mention of thunderstorms
from Thu Night as the ewd-moving high pressure dominates most of
KS. The next chance of thunderstorms should arrive Wrn & Central
KS Fri Afternoon as a broad mid-upper wave moves E across the
Rockies. The thunderstorms would spread E across all of KICT
Country Fri Night & Sat.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 631 PM CDT Sat Aug 20 2016

Quiet VFR conditions the next 24 hours, as surface high pressure
settles southeast across Mid-America. Light northwest winds will
turn light southwesterly overnight, increasing a tad to southerly
by Sunday afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    56  83  61  86 /   0   0   0   0
Hutchinson      55  84  61  86 /   0   0   0   0
Newton          55  83  60  85 /   0   0   0   0
ElDorado        54  82  60  85 /   0   0   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   56  84  61  87 /   0   0   0   0
Russell         53  85  62  88 /   0   0   0   0
Great Bend      53  85  61  88 /   0   0   0   0
Salina          54  83  62  88 /   0   0   0   0
McPherson       54  83  60  86 /   0   0   0   0
Coffeyville     55  84  59  87 /   0   0   0   0
Chanute         54  83  59  86 /   0   0   0   0
Iola            54  82  59  85 /   0   0   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    54  83  59  86 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...EPS
SHORT TERM...EPS
LONG TERM...EPS
AVIATION...ADK



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