Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 122331
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
531 PM CST Tue Dec 12 2017

...Updated for Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 148 PM CST Tue Dec 12 2017

A deep mid-upper level trough extending from the northern Great
Lakes all the way down to the Gulf of Mexico is dominating the
eastern half of the CONUS while an impressive ridge continues to
sit over much of the west. This pattern continues to fuel a
northwesterly flow regime through the Central Plains as it forces
a surface high pressure directly south from Nebraska through
western Kansas and into Texas by this afternoon/evening. This
propagation will allow winds to briefly take on a more westerly
component today before returning to northwesterly by tomorrow
morning. Highs this afternoon are expected to be cooler than
yesterday across the CWA, though still an above average day for
the month of December.

The next mid/upper level clipper system is forecast to slip
across the northeastern corner of Kansas into the Middle
Mississippi Valley on Wednesday, pushing a strong surface low
ahead of it that will impact weather in the Mississippi and Ohio
Valleys. However, the center of the surface trough will stay well
to the north and east of the Plains, and with virtually no
atmospheric moisture available this system will not bring anything
in the way of precip to Kansas. However, with a tightened
pressure gradient, winds are expected to return back to the
northwest in its wake on Wednesday and will pick up a bit across
the area. This will elevate fire danger across central, south
central, and southeast Kansas to the very high category, but will
likely not be enough to issue any watches or warnings (though
caution should be heeded if any outdoor burning is planned).

The succession of clippers continues on Thursday late afternoon
into Friday as the next system moves across the state. This system
may produce some precip in our neighboring areas, but the current
thinking is that the best chances will be to our north and
northeast, so left the forecast dry. As the clipper moves off
rapidly to the east, it will break up the upper ridge that has
been dominating the mid/upper pattern in the western CONUS for
some time now and forcing it eastward.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 148 PM CST Tue Dec 12 2017

Heading into the weekend, the forecast becomes more uncertain.
Models indicate that a deep positively tilted upper level trough
will force a surface low within our vicinity Saturday evening into
Sunday. While the the latest ECMWF indicates that this could
bring some moisture into the CWA in the form of precipitation
Saturday night into Sunday morning, the GFS and Canadian keep
precip further south. Decided to leave the forecast dry for now
through the remainder of the forecast period given the degree of
uncertainty. Overall, chances are that the quiet/dry weather
pattern will likely persist into the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 531 PM CST Tue Dec 12 2017

VFR conditions expected the next 24 hours. Main story will be
strong/gusty northwest winds developing mid to late morning
Wednesday, as an upper level disturbance and associated cold front
moves southeast across Mid-America.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    32  60  31  46 /   0   0   0  10
Hutchinson      32  60  29  46 /   0   0   0  10
Newton          30  59  29  44 /   0   0   0  10
ElDorado        31  59  29  44 /   0   0   0  10
Winfield-KWLD   31  61  30  46 /   0   0   0   0
Russell         33  59  28  46 /   0   0   0  10
Great Bend      33  59  28  47 /   0   0   0  10
Salina          33  59  29  45 /   0   0   0  10
McPherson       30  59  28  45 /   0   0   0  10
Coffeyville     31  62  30  44 /   0   0   0   0
Chanute         32  59  29  43 /   0   0   0   0
Iola            32  58  29  42 /   0   0   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    31  61  29  44 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TAV
LONG TERM...TAV
AVIATION...ADK


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