Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 041139
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
539 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

TWO AREAS OF SNOW ARE CURRENTLY TRACKING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING. EXPECTING THE NORTHERN AREA OF SNOW TO GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE AS IT SINKS SOUTHWARD TOWARDS CENTRAL KANSAS WITH MID-
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WEAKENING. MEANWHILE THE SECOND BAND OVER
SOUTHERN KANSAS SHOULD BE THE MORE PROMINENT SNOW MAKER...AS
FRONTOGENESIS MAINTAINS INTO THE MORNING HOURS. THIS BAND OF SNOW
WILL THEN SINK SOUTHWARD...AS UPPER TROUGH PIVOTS THROUGH WITH THE
SNOW BAND WEAKENING AND AMOUNTS TAPERING OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS. THE SNOW LOOKS TO
EXIT THE REGION BEFORE SUNSET THEREFORE WE WILL CANCEL THE
ADVISORY SOONER. EXPECTING THE HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS TO BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE BAND FROM HUTCHINSON TO NEWTON TO
MARION...WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED LOCATION
REACHING 3 INCHES IF THE BAND MAINTAINS LONGER IN THIS AREA.

STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL WAVE FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO CLEAR SKIES. THE STAR
WILL SHINE BRIGHTLY ACROSS KANSAS FOR THURSDAY HOWEVER MODIFICATION
OF COLD AIRMASS WILL BE SLOW AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL FOR EARLY MARCH. ONCE AGAIN THE STAR WILL SHINE IN FULL
DISPLAY ON FRIDAY...WITH PREMIUM DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS OF WESTERLY WINDS
BOOSTING DAYTIME HIGHS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN STORE
FOR KANSAS THIS PERIOD...COMPARED TO THE RELENTLESS COLD AND BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WE EXPERIENCED THE PAST 3 WEEKS. A CHANGE TO THE
UPPER PATTERN LOOKS TO BE FOURTH COMING FOR THE HEARTLAND...AS THE
DEEP MERIDIONAL TROUGHING THAT HAS PLAGUED MUCH OF THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES WILL FINALLY BREAK DOWN. GEO-POTENTIAL HEIGHT RISES
AND MID-LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL ACROSS THE NORTHERN
STATES...ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL KEEP THE COLDER AIR BOTTLED
UP IN CANADA. THE RESULT WILL BE A NICE DRY AND WARM WEATHER PATTERN
FOR KANSAS WITH DAYTIME HIGHS ABOVE NORMAL.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 532 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS WILL BE SNOW AND LOWER CEILINGS THIS
MORNING.

BAND OF MODERATE SNOW AND SLEET CONTINUES TO DRIFT EAST AND
WEAKEN AS MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION DECREASES. SHOULD GET SOME MORE
SCATTERED ACTIVITY COMING UP FROM THE SOUTH BUT SHOULD REMAIN MORE
SCATTERED AS THE BETTER LIFT CONTINUES TO DECREASE. THE MODERATE
SNOW SHOULD BE DONE AT KICT WITH KHUT STAYING IN IT FOR A COUPLE
MORE HOURS. SO CURRENTLY EXPECTING MVFR CONDITIONS FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS THIS MORNING BEFORE DRIER AIR PUSHES IN FROM THE NORTH WHICH
WILL PUSH THE BETTER PRECIP CHANCES SOUTH. SO BY 18Z FEEL MOST
SITES SHOULD BE AT VFR LEVELS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS-IN.

LAWSON

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 302 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN LOW ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH
LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE FIRE DANGER LEVELS
WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN ON THE LOW END INTO THE WEEKEND WITH LIGHTER
WIND SPEEDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    28  12  39  22 /  70  10   0   0
HUTCHINSON      29  10  39  22 /  90  10   0   0
NEWTON          27  11  39  22 /  90  10   0   0
ELDORADO        27  12  37  22 /  70  10   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   26  12  37  21 /  60  10   0   0
RUSSELL         33   7  42  21 /  40   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      32   7  41  21 /  50   0   0   0
SALINA          33   8  40  22 /  40   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       29   9  39  22 /  90   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     26  13  34  19 /  60  10   0   0
CHANUTE         26  12  34  19 /  60  10   0   0
IOLA            26  12  33  19 /  60  10   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    25  12  34  19 /  60  10   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR KSZ047-
048-050>052-067>069-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$


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