000
FXUS63 KICT 250439
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1139 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

TONIGHT-SAT:
ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA HAVE DEVELOPED OVER MAINLY BUTLER COUNTY ON
EASTERN EDGE OF BETTER INSTABILITY. WILL KEEP SOME ISOLATED
CHANCES GOING UNTIL 7 PM FOR THAT. OTHERWISE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES THIS PERIOD APPEAR TO BE LIMITED TO A GRAZING SLIGHT
CHANCE ACROSS FAR NORTH/NE SECTIONS OF FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT
THROUGH SAT. 1200 UTC MODELS WERE A BIT TOO EAGER...BREAKING OUT
EXTENSIVE CONVECTION ACROSS OK THIS MORNING...WHICH DID NOT OCCUR.
THIS CONVECTION SUBSEQUENTLY AFFECTED LOW LEVEL FIELDS OVER KS
THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES/WINDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE. PREVIOUS FORECAST LIKELY ON TRACK TRENDING WARMER ON
MAXES.

SAT NIGHT-MON:
MAIN FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION BOTH SAT NIGHT/SUN NIGHT WILL BE
STORMS DEVELOPING IN WESTERN KS ON DRYLINE AND WORKING INTO THE
AREA DURING THE NIGHT. MODELS PORTEND LARGE CAP ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE DAY...AND IN ABSENCE OF STRONG FRONT/CONVERGENCE SHOULD...
AT LEAST IN THEORY...PRECLUDE HOME GROWN STORMS. HOWEVER CAPE
WILL BE QUITE HIGH...SO LARGE CORE/STRONG STORMS ARE LIKELY IF
ANYTHING CAN DEVELOP DURING PEAK HEATING...WITH MAINLY MICROBURST
POTENTIAL. ODDLY...1000-850 MILLIBAR THICKNESSES WOULD SUPPORT WARMER
TEMPERATURES THAN THE USUAL 850MB MIXDOWN TEMPERATURES. THE
THICKNESS BASED NUMBERS ARE ALSO SIMILAR TO GOING FORECAST FOR
BOTH SAT/SUN...BUT WARMER THAN MON. GIVEN LARGE CAP ON MON AND
GOOD MIXING...AM INCLINED TO TREND WARMER. INCREASING SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR A BIT STRONGER WINDS...THOUGH IT
APPEARS THAT THEY WILL BE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. WILL STILL BE
STIFF BREEZE FOR THOSE OUT ON AREA LAKES THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
-HOWERTON

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

TUE-FRI:
EASTERN US RIDGE HOLDS TOUGH WHILE WESTERN TROUGH DIGS/MOVES
CLOSER THIS PERIOD...WITH FLOW ACROSS AREA BECOMING LESS ZONAL.
DRYLINE MOVES CLOSER AND DEPENDING ON MODEL...TUE NIGHT...WED
NIGHT AND/OR THU NIGHT COULD ALL POTENTIALLY BE QUITE ACTIVE WEST
OF I-35...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL KS. CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES IN CAPPING AND ORIENTATION/
CONVERGENCE ON DRYLINE WHICH WILL BE KEY FOR BOTH IF/WHERE STORMS
INITIATE. MAXES WILL BE TRICKY WITH A LOT DEPENDING ON CLOUDS AND
ANY LINGERING DAYTIME PRECIPITATION. -HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

AVIATION CONCERNS REMAIN LOW CIGS OVERNIGHT INTO SAT MORNING.

MVFR CIGS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED ALONG AND WEST OF I-135. AM
EXPECTING THESE CIGS TO REMAIN AND LOWER SLIGHTLY TOWARD DAYBREAK.
WILL RUN WITH IFR LEVELS FOR THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER ELEVATION SITES
(KHUT-KRSL) BUT DO FEEL THAT KICT WILL AT LEAST FLIRT WITH SOME
IFR LEVELS LATE TONIGHT. THESE CIGS SHOULD START TO LIFT A COUPLE
HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. THE MAIN AVIATION STORY WILL THEN BECOME THE
STRONG SOUTH WINDS. ALONG AND WEST OF I-135 AM LOOKING AT
SUSTAINED SPEEDS IN THE 25-30 MPH RANGE WITH HIGHER
GUSTS...ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL KS.

LAWSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    64  86  66  89 /  10  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      65  87  65  90 /  10  10  20  10
NEWTON          63  87  65  89 /  10  20  20  10
ELDORADO        62  85  65  86 /  10  10  20  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   64  84  66  87 /  10  10  10  10
RUSSELL         65  89  65  91 /  20  20  30  20
GREAT BEND      64  89  65  91 /  10  10  20  20
SALINA          65  87  65  90 /  20  20  30  10
MCPHERSON       64  87  65  90 /  10  20  20  10
COFFEYVILLE     60  82  65  84 /  10  20  10  10
CHANUTE         60  83  65  84 /  10  20  20  10
IOLA            59  83  64  84 /  10  20  20  10
PARSONS-KPPF    60  83  65  84 /  10  20  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$