Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 212309
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
609 PM CDT Thu Sep 21 2017

...Updated for Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 324 PM CDT Thu Sep 21 2017

Unseasonably warm weather will continue thru Saturday, though
welcome changes to much cooler and wetter weather is still in the
offing by early next week for central and southeast Kansas. A
sultry south wind continues to bake the area this afternoon where
the airmass has become very unstable east of the dry-line with
MLCAPE values over 4000 J/KG. While convergence and deep layer
shear is relatively weak, an approaching subtle upper shortwave
trof across the high Plains may be able to overcome weakening
inhibition for isolated late day storms west of the turnpike.
Otherwise, the focus for more organized convection and meaningful
rainfall will remain situated across far western Kansas Friday and
Saturday as the longwave upper trof continues to develop across
the western CONUS. This will keep central and southeast Kansas in
the unseasonably warm southerly low level flow with little if any
focus for meaningful precip. This will begin to change Sunday into
Sunday night, as better lift from the approaching upper trof gets
closer and the associated surface front moves into western
Kansas. This should result in increasing chances for
showers/storms across central Kansas.

Darmofal

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 324 PM CDT Thu Sep 21 2017

The medium range models show a significant upper trof lifting
bodily northeast from the central Rockies into the northern Plains
on Monday into Monday night, while an additional shortwave dives
south and maintains the mean upper longwave across the Southwest
CONUS into Tuesday. The result for central and southeast Kansas
looks to be the advection of progressively cooler air in the wake
of the cold front with periodic lift along the southward sagging
baroclinic zone supporting numerous showers/storms Monday night
through Tuesday with chances possibly lingering into Wednesday.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 609 PM CDT Thu Sep 21 2017

VFR conditions anticipated the next 24 hours. Cannot completely
rule out a stray thunderstorm this evening west of I-135 in the
vicinity of a dryline amidst a very unstable airmass, although
suspect meager low-level convergence in concert with minimal
upper forcing will prevent anything from developing. The big story
will be continued stout/gusty south winds tonight and Friday, as
low pressure persists across the High Plains.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    74  92  71  90 /  10   0   0   0
Hutchinson      74  93  71  90 /  10   0   0   0
Newton          73  91  71  89 /  10   0   0   0
ElDorado        73  91  71  89 /  10   0   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   74  91  71  90 /  10   0   0   0
Russell         73  94  72  90 /  10   0  10  10
Great Bend      72  94  71  89 /  10   0   0  10
Salina          76  95  73  92 /  10   0   0  10
McPherson       74  93  71  90 /  10   0   0   0
Coffeyville     73  91  70  90 /  10   0   0   0
Chanute         72  90  70  89 /  10   0   0   0
Iola            71  90  69  89 /  10   0   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    73  91  70  90 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KED
LONG TERM...KED
AVIATION...ADK



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