Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 240834
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
334 AM CDT WED AUG 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 332 AM CDT Wed Aug 24 2016

Low level moisture transport continues to push NE and feed into the
cluster of storms currently over NW MO.  Expect this moisture
transport to shift from the NE to the E for the morning hours,
keeping most of the convection just to the NE of the forecast area
for the morning hours.

After the morning hours, attention then shifts to northern and
Central KS as a frontal boundary will make slow progress into
Central KS. Expect this front to be quasi-stationary across Central
KS as a fairly significant shortwave moves NE out of the SW US in
the SW flow across KS. Expect scattered showers/storms to develop
along this front for the afternoon hours, possibly as early as 20z,
but more likely after 22z. A moderately unstable airmass will be
located just to the south of the boundary, with decent bulk shear
enough for strong to severe storm chances as the afternoon
progresses into the evening.  Besides the severe weather threat, of
bigger concern is the threat of heavy rainfall and flash flooding.

A number of ingredients are expected to come together to produce the
potential for training or possibly backbuilding thunderstorms in the
vicinity of the frontal zone. A deep  moist environment, an
increasing nighttime low-level jet, persistent SW flow along the
slow moving front and persistent lift underneath the right entrance
region of upper jet. High precipitable water values of 160-180
percent of normal, suggests a threat of locally very heavy rainfall
rates, along with a threat of localized flash flooding. Greatest
threat area for this afternoon through tonight appears to be
generally north of a Hutchinson-Emporia line. Think the main severe
threat will be quarter size hail and damaging downburst winds from
bowing storm segments for this afternoon/evening.

Some uncertainty on how far south the frontal boundary will get late
tonight into early Thu, as most of the convective short range models
show some sort of cold pool helping push the front into Southern KS
mainly along or just north of highway 54/400. Expect to see a lull
in the showers/storms for Thu morning through Thu Afternoon as the
low level moisture transport shifts to the east.

The threat of strong/severe storms and potential additional heavy
rainfall/flash flooding returns to Thu afternoon/night as this slow
moving frontal boundary makes slow movement to the south, as it
becomes parallel to the SW flow.  Expect the same setup as
mentioned for this afternoon/tonight, to remain in place for Thu
night as well.  Training storms and possibly backbuilding storms are
again a threat, but the area of heavy rainfall/localized flooding
will shift a little further south into southern Kansas, generally
along or just north of highway 54/400. will have to keep an on Thu
night, as the heavy rainfall potential may lead to river flooding
and flash flooding.

Ketcham

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 332 AM CDT Wed Aug 24 2016

Some uncertainty on how far south the front will get
before becoming stationary or washing out late Thu or early Fri.
This will lead to sporadic shower and thunderstorm chances
continuing as moisture laden monsoonal flow continues across the
plains. Both the ECMWF and GFS show the synoptic frontal boundary
washing out across OK for Fri afternoon/night, which will lead to
warm advection and moisture advection again surging north across the
region.  With SW flow remaining, the chance of showers and
thunderstorms will continue for most locations through the weekend.

Could see the scattered storm chances continue into the beginning of
the week as well, as the SW monsoonal flow continues.  Do not think
that the storm chances for Sun/Mon will be as widespread, as warming
temps build across the area and lack of convergence along any sort
of boundary will be lacking.

Ketcham

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1137 PM CDT Tue Aug 23 2016

VFR conditions expected overnight with high clouds floating
overhead. Meanwhile a frontal boundary will sink slowly southward
during the day on Wednesday. Thunderstorms are expected to develop
along the front in the afternoon and will linger into Wednesday
night.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    92  69  83  66 /  30  60  40  60
Hutchinson      91  66  79  63 /  50  70  40  60
Newton          90  67  80  64 /  40  60  40  60
ElDorado        91  68  83  65 /  20  60  40  60
Winfield-KWLD   93  70  88  67 /  20  40  40  50
Russell         85  62  75  61 /  50  60  30  30
Great Bend      89  63  75  61 /  50  60  30  40
Salina          91  66  76  63 /  50  70  30  50
McPherson       90  66  78  63 /  50  70  40  60
Coffeyville     95  72  92  69 /  10  20  40  50
Chanute         92  70  87  67 /  20  30  40  50
Iola            92  69  86  66 /  20  40  40  60
Parsons-KPPF    94  71  90  68 /  10  30  40  50

&&

.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Ketcham
LONG TERM...Ketcham
AVIATION...CDJ


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