Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 291205
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
705 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

A COLD FRONT MOVING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING
IS PROGGED TO SWEEP SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE GFS REMAINS MORE PROGRESSIVE WHEN COMPARED TO THE
NAM WHILE THE ECMWF IS SOMEWHAT OF A COMPROMISE. THE LATEST RAP13
WOULD SUPPORT THE MORE PROGRESSIVE GFS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAY BE ONGOING THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH MOISTURE
TRANSPORT/ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS. THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
THE COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR DEEP MOIST CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KS.
BETTER CHANCES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN ACROSS
SOUTHEAST KANSAS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT BEFORE DRIER AND MORE
STABLE AIR ARRIVES IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT. WITH ONGOING RIVER FLOODING AND SATURATED SOILS...NO
CHANGES ARE PLANNED TO THE FLOOD WATCH WITH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF
THE AREA TODAY AND ALL BUT PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KS THIS EVENING.

SAT-SUN...POST-FRONTAL DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR
THE WEEKEND WHILE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN 8-10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 70S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER
40S/LOW 50S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

A MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO TRANSLATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS BRINGING RISING HEIGHTS/INCREASING THICKNESS TO THE AREA. THIS
WILL SUPPORT RISING TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH
EARLY WED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO RETURN TO SEASONABLE VALUES WITH READINGS IN THE LOW-MID 80S
WHILE LOWS REMAIN IN THE 60S.

BY LATE WED INTO EARLY THU...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO LIFT
OVER THE ROCKIES BRINGING A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS STATES. SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEK WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 657 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER
SOUTHEAST KANSAS THIS MORNING...AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS.
AREAS OF IFR/MVFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID MORNING WITH A VERY
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND WEAK SURFACE WINDS.

ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP FROM MIDDAY INTO THIS
EVENING...WITH HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR THUNDER ALONG/EAST OF
INTERSTATE 135. DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN STORM
THREATS. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SLOWLY ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN SOUTHEAST KANSAS TONIGHT WITH SOUTH WINDS
SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    81  58  72  53 /  50  50  10   0
HUTCHINSON      81  57  72  50 /  50  30  10   0
NEWTON          78  55  71  50 /  50  50  10   0
ELDORADO        80  59  71  53 /  60  60  10   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   80  59  74  53 /  60  60  10   0
RUSSELL         79  53  71  48 /  30  30  10   0
GREAT BEND      79  53  71  50 /  30  30  10   0
SALINA          79  56  71  50 /  50  40  10   0
MCPHERSON       80  55  71  50 /  50  30  10   0
COFFEYVILLE     76  62  73  55 /  90  70  10   0
CHANUTE         76  61  73  55 /  90  70  10   0
IOLA            76  61  72  55 /  90  70  10   0
PARSONS-KPPF    76  61  75  55 /  90  70  10   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR KSZ052-053-
067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR KSZ032-033-047>051.

&&

$$


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