Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 191130
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
630 AM CDT Fri May 19 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 345 AM CDT Fri May 19 2017

The main challenge/concern is the trend/coverage in
convection today across the area and potential for locally
strong/severe storms and heavy rainfall. Mesoscale outflow has
masked the effective surface front with the boundary briefly
moving south into north central Oklahoma. Since midnight, a
southeast flow has returned north across the Kansas border at
Winfield. The effective surface front is expected to become better
defined a bit further north today from south central into east
central Kansas. The latest RAP/HRRR support the ongoing convection
across southeast Kansas early this morning where elevated CAPE
values around 1000 j/kg will reside through sunrise in a region of
modest moisture transport. Even modest surface heating in the
presence of weak to little capping today along/south of the front is
expected to result in a quick renewal or increase in convection,
becoming quite numerous across the area by the afternoon. A visibly
evident shortwave upper trof in the water vapor imagery over the
southern Rockies early this morning will also lift northeast across
the area by this afternoon. While lower level wind fields will be
weaker, overall deep layer shear will increase in the modest warm
sector where MLCAPE values could approach 2000 j/kg. This should
support a few severe storms mainly along/southeast of the Kansas
turnpike. Periodic heavy rainfall will also remain possible across
much of the area, even on the cool side of the front across central
Kansas. The upper low will begin to open up and lift out across the
central/northern Plains on Saturday. A brisk and cooler northwest
surface flow will prevail with any lingering showers diminishing
or exiting the area by the afternoon. The weekend is expected to
finish out dry and seasonably mild on Sunday.

Darmofal

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 345 AM CDT Fri May 19 2017

A significant upper trof rotating around the large scale upper low
over western Ontario will drop southeast across the Upper Midwest
Monday, amplifying the mean eastern CONUS trof as it sweeps south
and east across the Mississippi Valley through mid-week. This will
bring a chance for precip followed by much cooler air to the area.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 627 AM CDT Fri May 19 2017

Widespread LIFR/IFR was observed with low cigs and visibilities in
the wake of a cold front bisecting the area this morning.
Conditions are expected to prevail through much if not all of the
day north of the front, while ceilings may lift some along and
south of the front before showers and storms become more numerous
by 16-18z or so. LIFR/IFR may return tonight as precipitation
begins to diminish from west to east. Breezy northeast winds shift
to the northwest as drier air filters across the area late
tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    73  51  65  47 /  80  70  10   0
Hutchinson      67  48  63  45 /  80  70  10   0
Newton          70  49  62  46 /  80  70  10   0
ElDorado        73  52  64  46 /  80  80  20   0
Winfield-KWLD   75  53  66  47 /  80  80  10   0
Russell         59  43  60  43 /  70  60  20   0
Great Bend      61  44  61  44 /  70  60  10   0
Salina          65  48  61  44 /  80  80  20   0
McPherson       66  48  62  44 /  80  70  10   0
Coffeyville     79  60  69  48 /  80  80  30  10
Chanute         78  59  67  47 /  80  80  30  10
Iola            77  58  67  47 /  80  80  30  10
Parsons-KPPF    78  59  68  48 /  80  80  30  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch through Saturday morning for KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KED
LONG TERM...KED
AVIATION...MWM



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