Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 161136
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
636 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL ZONE MAY RESULT IN
PATCHY LIGHT DRIZZLE EARLY THIS MORNING OVER FAR
SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST KS. OTHERWISE...PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
ARE ANTICIPATED TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
KS...AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS SURGING BACK NORTHEAST IN
RESPONSE TO A SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST. INCREASED ASCENT ON NOSE OF STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET
SHOULD RESULT IN INCREASED SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
TONIGHT--WEDNESDAY MORNING...PRIMARILY EAST OF A LINE FROM
LINCOLN-WICHITA-WINFIELD AFTER MIDNIGHT. INSTABILITY/SHEAR COMBO
WILL FAVOR DIME SIZE HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH THE
STRONGEST ACTIVITY. REINFORCING CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING
SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS IS EXPECTED TO SHARPEN THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE KANSAS REGION...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN
CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WEDNESDAY--THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY
NORTHEAST OF A LINE FROM GREAT BEND-WICHITA-WINFIELD WEDNESDAY
EVENING--THURSDAY MORNING. MODEST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT COUPLED
WITH DECENT INSTABILITY COULD FAVOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.
IN THE TEMPERATURE DEPARTMENT...READINGS WILL WARM BACK INTO THE
80S-90S WED-THU...AS WESTERN CONUS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES THE
REGION.

ADK

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

AN INTERESTING SYNOPTIC SETUP MAY ARRIVE FOR THE WEEKEND...AS
REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ODILE CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL BAJA
PENINSULA PROGRESS NORTHEAST...EVENTUALLY PHASING WITH A DEEP
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. ADD THE ARRIVAL OF A STRONG
COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT--SATURDAY
EVENING. TROPICAL CONNECTION AND ASSOCIATED HIGH PRECIPITABLE
WATERS AND POOR LAPSE RATES SHOULD TEMPER SEVERE
CHANCES...ALTHOUGH IT WILL FAVOR LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IN
SHORT AMOUNTS OF TIME. HOWEVER...NOT ANTICIPATING A PROLONGED
EVENT AS SYNOPTIC FEATURES SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE. THE
SLOWER MODEL SOLUTIONS OFTEN VERIFY THE BEST WITH SYSTEMS LIKE
THIS...SO DON`T BE SURPRISED IF THIS SYSTEM SLOWS DOWN A BIT.
COOLER FALL-LIKE TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED IN WAKE OF THIS
SYSTEM SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK.

ADK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE LOW CLOUDS TODAY.

LOW CLOUDS HAVE GRADUALLY INCREASED OVERNIGHT OVER SOUTHERN KS AND
NOW ENCOMPASS MOST AREAS SOUTH OF I-70. SO FAR THEY HAVE NOT
DROPPED DOWN TO IFR LEVELS AND NOT EXPECTING THEM TO. FEEL THAT A
FEW SITES WILL GO DOWN TO MVFR LEVELS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS OVER
MAINLY SOUTHERN KS. BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS MOST SITES SHOULD BE AT
VFR LEVELS. LATE TONIGHT THERE IS DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT THAT
AREAS EAST OF I-135 WILL AGAIN SEE LOWER CLOUDS.

LAWSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    77  65  89  66 /  10  20  20  20
HUTCHINSON      76  64  88  65 /  10  20  20  30
NEWTON          75  63  85  64 /  10  30  20  30
ELDORADO        76  63  86  65 /  10  30  20  30
WINFIELD-KWLD   78  66  89  67 /  10  20  10  20
RUSSELL         76  62  85  64 /  10  10  20  30
GREAT BEND      76  63  88  64 /  10  10  20  30
SALINA          74  62  84  65 /  10  30  20  40
MCPHERSON       75  63  85  64 /  10  20  20  30
COFFEYVILLE     77  64  85  66 /  10  30  30  30
CHANUTE         75  61  82  64 /  10  40  30  40
IOLA            74  60  81  63 /  10  40  30  40
PARSONS-KPPF    76  63  84  65 /  10  40  30  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







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