Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 051751
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1251 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

A 35-40 KNOT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET WILL VEER SOME EARLY THIS
MORNING...FOCUSING MODERATE MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO CENTRAL/SOUTH-
CENTRAL KS BENEATH WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ON THE 315K SURFACE.
OTHER VERY SMALL CLUSTERS OF STORMS MAY DRIFT SOUTHWARD OUT OF
NEBRASKA THIS MORNING. THUS...WILL MAINTAIN A MODEST (20-30%)
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING (WITH EXPECTED SPARSE
COVERAGE) ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH DIMINISHING CHANCES
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT/LIFT WEAKEN. LEE
TROUGHING AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY.

A POSITIVELY-TILTED STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH STRETCHING FROM MANITOBA
TO BRITISH COLUMBIA EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER GREAT LAKES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A
SIGNFICANT ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. DESPITE INITIAL MODERATELY-WARM
MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES IN PLACE...THE FRONT WILL BE SLIDING THROUGH
AN ANOMALOUSLY MOIST AIRMASS WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 2.00-
2.50 INCHES. EXPECTING THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON ALONG
THE FRONT IN CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY NIGHT EXPANDING AREA-WIDE...AND MAINLY SOUTHEASTERN
KANSAS ON TUESDAY. A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS COULD CONTAIN
STRONG-MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS FROM HEAVY PRECIPITATION
LOADING AND WEAKER SHEAR. OTHERWISE...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
PROBABLE ALONG THE SLOW-MOVING FRONT ESPECIALLY WHERE CONVECTIVE
TRAINING OCCURS. THIS IS ALREADY IN THE SPIRIT OF THE GOING
FORECAST.

NORTHEASTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING IN SOME COOLER AIR
FOR TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT.

JMC

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO REMAIN STALLED JUST TO THE SOUTH
OF KANSAS TUESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE LIFTING SLOWLY NORTHWARD THROUGH
THE AREA AS A WARM FRONT...WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. 850 MOISTURE
TRANPSORT...ISENTROPIC LIFT...FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND WEAK VORTS
EMBEDDED IN THE LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES
WEDNESDAY INTO PERHAPS THURSDAY...BEFORE MODIFYING TO AROUND
SEASONAL AVERAGES BY THE END OF THE WEEK. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
SHOW MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS RISING BY FRIDAY/SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH THE
ECMWF HAS A STRONGER SUBTROPICAL HIGH DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS/ROCKIES.

JMC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

A FEW TSRA THAT HAD BEEN OCCURRING OVER SE KS HAVE DISSIPATED. S
WINDS SUSTAINED 17-22KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30KTS WILL ACROSS MOST
TERMINALS UNTIL ~06/02Z WHEN THEY WOULD DIMINISH TO 13-17KTS. THE
EXCEPTION WOULD BE AT KCNU WHERE A SUSTAINED ~13KTS IS ANTICIPATED
FOR MOST OF THE AFTN.

LOOKING AHEAD TO MON: A SE-MOVG COLD FRONT IS SCHEDULED TO KRSL
15Z-18Z & KSLN & KHUT ~21Z. AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THESE AREAS
NUMEROUS SHRA/+TSRA WILL SPREAD SE ACRS THESE TERMINALS & SHOULD
APPROACH KICT LATE MON AFTN. STAY TUNED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    95  74  88  66 /  20  10  60  80
HUTCHINSON      96  73  87  65 /  20  10  70  60
NEWTON          95  72  87  65 /  20  10  70  70
ELDORADO        93  73  88  66 /  20  10  60  80
WINFIELD-KWLD   94  74  91  67 /  20  10  50  80
RUSSELL         98  72  82  63 /  20  30  70  40
GREAT BEND      97  72  83  63 /  20  20  70  50
SALINA          97  73  85  64 /  20  10  70  50
MCPHERSON       95  72  86  64 /  20  10  70  60
COFFEYVILLE     91  73  90  70 /  30  10  30  90
CHANUTE         91  72  88  68 /  30  10  40  80
IOLA            91  72  88  68 /  20  10  40  80
PARSONS-KPPF    91  73  89  69 /  30  10  30  90

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$


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