Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 262101
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
401 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

A CLUSTER OF SVR THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED QUICKLY ON SCHEDULE ALONG
A DRY LINE THAT EXTENDED FROM JUST S OF KGBD...THRU BETWEEN K8K2 &
KP28...THEN SW ACROSS FAR WRN OK TO W TX. A 2ND AREAS OF SVR
THUNDERSTORMS WAS IN PROGRESS FROM JUST S OF KMHK...THRU KEMP...TO
BURLINGTON. LARGE HAIL HAD BEEN THE PRIMARY SVR MODE...BUT SINCE
ABOUT 315 PM A COUPLE OF TORNADOES WERE POSSIBLE OVER SW SUMNER CO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

TONIGHT:
NO DOUBT SVR THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF ALL 3 SVR MODES CONTINUE TO
DRAW GREATEST ATTENTION. AS AN UPPER-DECK LOW...THAT WAS SITUATED
OVER SE WY & NE CO THIS AFTERNOON...REMAINS PARKED OVER THESE AREAS
A 2ND UPPER LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER SRN KS. THIS SHOULD PUSH THE DRY
LINE PERHAPS AS FAR E AS I-35/I-135 EARLY THIS EVENING. GREATEST
SFC-BASED CAPES (4,000-4,500 J/KG) EXTEND IN A WELL-DEFINED S-N
ORIENTED AXIS FROM THE NORTH-CENTRAL OK/SOUTH-CENTRAL KS BORDER TO
AROUND KSLN. AS SUCH THE GREATEST SVR POTENTIAL WOULD SPREAD N/NE
ACROSS THESE AREAS THRU MID-LATE EVENING. WITH THE LOWER-DECK FLOW
SLOWLY BACKING...THE 3KM VORTICITY WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS
DEEP-LAYER ASCENT CONTINUES TO INCREASE. AS SUCH THE TORNADIC
POTENTIAL WOULD LIKEWISE INCREASE WHERE TOR WATCH #108 IS IN EFFECT
TILL 10 PM CDT. AS THE INTENSE SFC LOW...CENTERED BETWEEN KSLN &
KCNK...LIFTS NNE THE WARM FRONT EXTENDING E FROM THE LOW WOULD LIFT
ALMOST DUE N...REACHING I-70 LATE THIS EVE BY WHICH TIME A PACIFIC
COLD FRONT WOULD PUSH ESE...APPROACHING THE I-135 CORRIDOR TOWARD
DAYBREAK WED. AS SUCH THUNDERSTORMS WOULD SHIFT E & NE OVERNIGHT &
BE CONCENTRATED ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS LATE TONIGHT & VERY EARLY WED
MORNING. AS SUCH THE PRIMARY SVR MODE WOULD SHIFT TOWARD A
DAMAGING WINDS.

WED:
WITH THE SFC LOW CONTINUING TO LIFT SLOWLY NNE TO ALONG THE IA/
NEBRASKA BORDER THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL &
SOUTHEAST KS WOULD END IN A SW-NE MANNER IN THE MORNING WHILE
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WOULD SPREAD SE AROUND THED DEPARTING
SFC LOW INTO CENTRAL KS.

WED NIGHT-THU:
THERE`LL BE A BRIEF INTERMISSION AS WESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO OVER
SPREAD THE KS REGION...BUT EARLY THU MORNING...A BROAD SFC HIGH
WILL SPREAD E ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS THAT...CONBINED WITH WEAK SFC
LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE NM/TX PANHANDLE...WILL INDUCE EASTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS EARLY THU MORNING.

THU NIGHT-FRI NIGHT:
RAIN & EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS QUICKLY RETURN TO THE KS REGION THU
NIGHT FOR AS THE SFC LOW LIFTS SLOWLY NE ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE
FRI & FRI NIGHT...RAIN WOULD SPREAD NE ACROSS THE CWA. WITH A
NEGATIVELY-TILTED UPPER SHORTWAVE PUSHING ENE ACROSS THE TX/OK
PANHANDLES EMBEDDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
CWA FRI & FRI NIGHT. SUFFICIENT LIFT WOULD BE INDUCED TO PRODUCE
A FEW SVR THUNDERSTORMS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE VIGOROUS MID
TO UPPER TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PLAINS. MAINTAINED MID-HIGH POPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
A SERIES OF SMALLER SCALE IMPULSES MOVE THROUGH THE MEAN MID/UPPER
TROUGH PROGGED TO REMAIN CAMPED ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS AREA.
THIS WILL ALSO BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA OVER
THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

EXPECTING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP BETWEEN
19-21Z THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY ALONG AND JUST WEST OF THE I-135
CORRIDOR...AS WELL AS FROM CENTRAL KS EAST/SOUTHEAST INTO EAST-
CENTRAL KS. THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL PERSIST WELL INTO THE
EVENING...AS ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF OKLAHOMA.
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY...WITH VERY LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES.

ADK

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

THE WIDESPREAD RAINS & THUNDERSTORMS WILL KEEP THE GRASSLAND FIRE
DANGER IN CHECK THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    58  74  48  71 /  90  20   0   0
HUTCHINSON      54  69  44  69 /  80  30   0   0
NEWTON          57  73  46  69 /  90  30   0   0
ELDORADO        59  76  48  71 /  90  20   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   58  76  48  73 /  90  20   0   0
RUSSELL         50  66  41  66 /  70  40   0   0
GREAT BEND      50  67  41  67 /  60  40   0   0
SALINA          55  69  45  67 /  90  40  10   0
MCPHERSON       55  69  44  69 /  90  30   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     63  78  52  76 /  90  20   0   0
CHANUTE         62  76  50  73 /  90  20   0   0
IOLA            62  76  50  73 / 100  20   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    63  77  51  73 /  90  20   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...EPS
SHORT TERM...EPS
LONG TERM...EPS
AVIATION...ADK
FIRE WEATHER...EPS



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