Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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270
FXUS63 KICT 150005
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
605 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 135 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2018

An arctic front moving across the Northern Plains this afternoon
will sweep across the area tonight. A wide swath of light
precipitation is expected in the wake of the front as the forecast
area remains in the entrance region of the upper jet while an area
of mid level frontogenesis moves across the area late tonight and
into the day on Monday. Temperatures ahead and immediately behind
the front may remain above freezing this evening and tonight
allowing a brief mix of wintry precipitation before rapidly changing
to all snow in the wake of the front. Good lift is progged through
the snow growth zone leading to relatively high SLRs late tonight
and into the morning hours on Monday. We may see widespread 1 to 2
inches of snow across much of central and southeast KS tapering off
to a dusting to around 1 inch across much of south central KS. A
winter weather advisory will be issued as this snow will impact the
morning commute for many areas. Much drier air and falling
temperatures will arrive during the day allowing the precipitation
to end from northwest to southeast by early afternoon for most
locations.

Monday night into Tuesday...the main story continues to be very cold
arctic air. A wind chill advisory will be issued from midnight to
18Z on Tue with wind chill values around 15 below or lower
anticipated. Highs may struggle to climb above 12 degrees in many
locations on Tuesday afternoon.

Wednesday...Surface high pressure will move east of the area across
the Middle Mississippi Valley area allowing southerly flow to return
to the Central Plains states. This will allow temperatures to
begin to moderate with highs reaching the freezing mark across
portions of central and western Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 135 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2018

Moderating temperatures will persist at least through the
beginning of the weekend as a shortwave ridge translates eastward
with rising heights and increasing thickness progged across the
Central Plains states. A mid/upper trough is progged to move
across the Rockies toward the end of the period bringing a chance
for precipitation to the area late in the weekend. Typical
phase/amplitude uncertainties result in some uncertainty in
precipitation type and amounts as we move into Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 604 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2018

VFR conditions are expected for the first 6 hours, but expect
deteriorating aviation conditions late this evening and overnight,
as another arctic cold front pushes south across the area. As the
front pushes into central KS by around 06z/Mon with cigs dropping to
MVFR near the KSLN and KRSL tafs.  Will also see a large area of
post frontal precip  move south as well, with rain rapidly changing
to snow with vsbys quickly dropping to MVFR in the heavier snow
bands. Will add a tempo group for the heavier snow with vsbys around
1SM.

Expect this deteriorating trend to continue to trek to the south,
during the late night hours into the early morning hours on Mon,
with most locations dropping to MVFR for Cigs, with MVFR vsbys as
well, as the quick changeover from rain to snow moves south-
southeast. There is some potential for some IFR cigs around 900 ft
AGL with some of the heavier snow bands, near KICT and KGBD.

Ketcham

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    23  25   2  15 /  80  70   0   0
Hutchinson      20  22   0  14 /  80  70   0   0
Newton          19  21  -1  12 /  90  70   0   0
ElDorado        21  22   0  13 /  90  70   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   28  28   3  16 /  60  70   0   0
Russell         17  18  -2  14 /  80  30   0   0
Great Bend      20  21  -1  15 /  70  40   0   0
Salina          17  17  -1  12 /  90  30   0   0
McPherson       18  19  -2  12 /  90  30   0   0
Coffeyville     26  28   4  16 /  70  70   0   0
Chanute         20  23   1  13 /  80  70   0   0
Iola            18  21  -1  12 /  80  70   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    22  26   3  15 /  70  70   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to noon CST Monday
for KSZ032-033-048-049-051>053-070>072-094>096-098>100.

Wind Chill Advisory from 6 PM Monday to noon CST Tuesday for
KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-094>096.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MWM
LONG TERM...MWM
AVIATION...Ketcham



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