Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 260838
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
338 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...LIKELY CLIMAXING FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. DRIER AND
COOLER WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED LATE WEEKEND THROUGH MID NEXT
WEEK.

A PAIR OF UPPER WAVES PHASING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS
CURRENTLY DRIVING LINGERING LIGHT-MODERATE RAIN ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING. ANTICIPATE BRUNT OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL EXIT
INTO MISSOURI BY MID-MORNING...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY SHORT-TERM
HI-RES MODELS. AIRMASS IS FAIRLY WORKED-OVER...AND WILL LIKELY
TAKE ALL DAY TO RECOVER...SO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING
INTO AT LEAST MID- AFTERNOON. THEREAFTER...ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
GENERALLY ALONG/SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 IN THE VICINITY OF A WEAK COLD
FRONT SAGGING SOUTH...AMIDST WEAK UPPER FORCING APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST. THIS ACTIVITY COULD FESTER AND/OR ORGANIZE INTO A
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT OVER SOUTHERN KS...AS
LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS SOME AND BOUNDARY STALLS. OVERALL...NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER GIVEN WEAK FORCING AND
WEAK/MODEST INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR...ALTHOUGH A SMALL
HANDFUL OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH THE
CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAIN.

WEAK FRONT/BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY RETREAT NORTH...WHICH
SHOULD BE THE IMPETUS FOR RENEWED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE
REGION. ADDITIONALLY...THERE IS A DECENT CHANCE THAT HIGH PLAINS
ACTIVITY WILL MOVE/DEVELOP EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS ALLUDED TO BY
PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE. LIKE TUESDAY...WEAK FORCING/DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER...ALTHOUGH
EXPECTED STRENGTHENING INSTABILITY MAY ALLOW FOR A HANDFUL OF
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...WITH A CONTINUED
THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY AFTERNOON- EVENING...AS A SOMEWHAT DEEPER
UPPER WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

ALL-IN-ALL...DUE TO THE RATHER DISORGANIZED NATURE OF EXPECTED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THURSDAY...WILL HOLD OFF ON FLASH
FLOOD WATCH FOR NOW.

KLEINSASSER

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN WIDESPREAD/ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY...AS A STRONG
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH AND AN UPPER WAVE APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. THE BETTER FORCING/SHEAR MAY ALLOW FOR A SLIGHTLY
HIGHER SEVERE THREAT...ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER STILL
APPEARS UNLIKELY. POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE.

GFS/ECMWF CONSENSUS SUGGESTS DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER FROM LATE
SATURDAY THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK...AS MID/UPPER RIDGING BUILDS EAST
OVER MID-AMERICA...AND COOLER/DRIER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DROPS
SOUTH OVER THE REGION. MODEL CONSENSUS SUPPORTS MID/UPPER FLOW
FLATTENING BY MID NEXT WEEK...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT INCREASING
EVENING/OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION...AS HIGH
PLAINS ACTIVITY ROLLS EAST.

KLEINSASSER

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1055 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

LINGERING CONVECTION OCCURRING IN CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS APPEARS
ASSOCIATED WITH LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE AREAS WITH DIMINISHING
INSTABILITY. MOST OF THE RAIN SHOULD END BY 10-12 UTC. THERE COULD
BE SOME SCATTERED-BROKEN AREAS OF IFR EARLY TUESDAY MORNING GIVEN
RECENT RAINFALL AND LIGHT WINDS. THE MODELS SUGGEST A STRONGLY
UNSTABLE AND UNCAPPED AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION AGAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. A WEAK BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO SETTLE INTO CENTRAL KS
WHICH MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. OTHER
LOCALIZED AREAS OF WEAK CONVERGENCE WILL ALSO LIKELY SET OFF AT
LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. GUSTY WINDS AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
RATES WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH ANY STORM ACTIVITY TUES PM/EVE.

JMC

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

PERIODIC EPISODES OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY
THIS WEEKEND...WITH AREAS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY. GIVEN
THE WIDESPREAD SATURATED GROUND AND MANY RIVERS/STREAMS RUNNING
AT BANKFUL OR HIGHER...LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO CONSIDER
ADDITIONAL FLOOD/FLASH FLOOD WATCHES. AM HOLDING OFF FOR NOW GIVEN
THE RATHER DISORGANIZED NATURE OF THE EXPECTED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH POSSIBLY BETTER
ORGANIZED/WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY FOR FRIDAY-EARLY SATURDAY.

KLEINSASSER

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

THROUGH MAY 25TH...WICHITA MAY RAINFALL HAS ACCUMULATED 11.12
INCHES...3RD ALL-TIME (SINCE 1889). 2ND IS 11.22 INCHES IN
1935...AND 1ST IS 13.14 INCHES IN 2008. WITH PERIODIC EPISODES OF
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEKEND...THESE RECORDS
WILL BE IN JEOPARDY. SALINA AND CHANUTE ALSO HAVE A STRONG
POTENTIAL OF BREAKING INTO THE TOP-10 WETTEST MAY`S ON RECORD.

KLEINSASSER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    80  61  82  65 /  30  40  30  50
HUTCHINSON      80  58  82  64 /  30  30  30  60
NEWTON          79  59  81  64 /  30  30  30  50
ELDORADO        80  60  81  64 /  30  40  30  50
WINFIELD-KWLD   81  61  83  65 /  40  40  30  50
RUSSELL         79  57  82  63 /  10  10  30  60
GREAT BEND      79  57  81  63 /  20  10  30  60
SALINA          79  58  83  64 /  20  20  30  60
MCPHERSON       79  58  82  64 /  20  20  30  60
COFFEYVILLE     81  63  83  65 /  30  40  30  30
CHANUTE         81  62  83  65 /  30  40  30  30
IOLA            80  61  82  64 /  30  40  30  30
PARSONS-KPPF    81  62  82  65 /  30  40  30  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$



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