Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 222043
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
343 PM CDT Mon May 22 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 338 PM CDT Mon May 22 2017

Tonight:
One ongoing band of precipitation will continue to push east as
speed maximum departs. Another lobe of energy rotates through mean
trough. This will push surface front through and spread another
chance of rain showers/thunderstorm later this evening and overnight.
The best chances for precipitation will be in Central KS.

Tuesday:
Brief dry period in the morning, but precipitation chances will
increase the afternoon with enough instability to generate some
storms as well. Extensive clouds and cold air advection will keep
temperatures below normal once again.

Wednesday-Thursday:
Dry weather will prevail as moisture is shunted south of the
region and high pressure moves through on Wednesday. Some recovery
of temperatures on Wednesday, with more pronounced warmup on
Thursday in the return flow. -Howerton


LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 338 PM CDT Mon May 22 2017

Small chances of precipitation from Friday-Sunday morning, most
likely in Central KS Friday night. This will most likely be from
storms on the high plains Friday afternoon and evening that
propagates into the area, aided by favorable warm air/moisture
advection and sagging cold front. Another round possible Saturday
night/early Sunday, mainly suggested by slower moving GFS, with
faster ECMWF likely shunting most of the precipitation to the east
later Saturday evening. Warmest temperatures antcipated on Friday
with more abundant sunshine and warm air advection. Cooler
temperatures during the rest of the period given clouds and/or
colder air behind the front. - Howerton

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Mon May 22 2017

A weak shortwave will continue to traverse eastward across Kansas
this afternoon into early this evening, while a strong upper
trough digs southward into the Central Plains. The lead wave will
continue to result in scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms
this afternoon, which could persist in the southeast into early
this evening. A cold front, in association with the stronger upper
trough, will push southward through the region tonight into early
Tuesday morning shifting winds to northerly. Given sufficient
clearing occurs ahead of the front late this pm/eve, a few small
clusters of strong storms could develop along the front in
southern Nebraska/northern Kansas, possible affecting terminals
near I-70 this evening, before diminishing late tonight. Cold air
advection behind the frontal passage may allow for areas of MVFR
ceilings late tonight into Tuesday morning. Scattered showers
could linger Tuesday in association with the main upper trough
sliding over the region.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    52  66  46  68 /  20  10   0   0
Hutchinson      51  65  45  68 /  20  20   0   0
Newton          51  65  45  66 /  20  20   0   0
ElDorado        52  65  46  66 /  20  20  10  10
Winfield-KWLD   52  67  46  68 /  10  10   0   0
Russell         49  64  42  68 /  50  20  10   0
Great Bend      50  64  43  69 /  30  20  10   0
Salina          51  65  45  68 /  50  20  10   0
McPherson       51  65  44  67 /  30  20  10   0
Coffeyville     55  67  47  67 /  40  40  10  10
Chanute         54  67  47  65 /  40  30  10  10
Iola            54  66  47  65 /  40  30  10  10
Parsons-KPPF    54  67  47  66 /  50  30  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PJH
LONG TERM...PJH
AVIATION...JMC



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