Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 171629
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1029 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1028 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

INITIAL WAVE OF VERY LIGHT PRECIP CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS SE KS AT
THIS TIME.  SURFACE TEMPS HOVERING NEAR FREEZING WHICH MAY LEAD TO
SOME VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE...WITH VERY LIGHT
GLAZING POSSIBLE.  SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SUGGESTS SOME
BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS INITIAL WAVE.

THE GENERAL FORECAST TREND WILL BE FOR LOW LAYERS TO CONTINUE TO
SATURATE AS MAIN SHORTWAVE IN THE SW US BEGINS TO PULL INTO THE
PLAINS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  DO NOT EXPECT MUCH OF AN
INCREASE OF TEMPS FOR THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...WITH TEMPS POSSIBLY
NUDGING SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS.  ALREADY
SEEING SIGNS OF PRECIP INCREASING ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE AHEAD OF
THIS MAIN SHORTWAVE AND EXPECT THIS AREA OF PRECIP TO GROW TO THE
NORTHEAST TOWARDS SOUTH CENTRAL KS AS THE LATE AFTERNOON CONTINUES
AND LIFT WITH THIS SYSTEM INCREASES...ARRIVING INTO SRN KS BY AROUND
SUNSET.

LIFT AND THETA-E GRADIENT BEGINS TO TIGHTEN FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS INTO THIS EVENING.  EXPECT THIS TIME FRAME TO BE WHEN PRECIP
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPS
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE TRICKY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
KS WHERE A WINTRY MIX MAY BE POSSIBLE...AS CLOUD ICE MAY BE LACKING
INITIALLY FOR LIGHT SNOW...AND POSSIBLY MORE OF A FREEZING DRIZZLE
CHANCE.  FURTHER TO THE NORTH TEMP COLUMN LOOKS COLD ENOUGH FOR
PRECIP TO START AS LIGHT SNOW.  PLAN ON MAKING SOME TWEAKS TO THE
GRID/ZONE WORDING TO MENTION MORE OF A WINTRY MIX BUT GENERAL
FORECAST TREND LOOKS ON TRACK...WITH SOME TRAVEL PROBLEMS DEVELOPING
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...SO WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY STILL LOOKS
ON TRACK.

KETCHAM

UPDATE ISSUED AT 740 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN THAT HAD DEVELOPED OVER NORTH-CENTRAL OK IS
ENCROACHING UPON THE KS BORDER THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL KS CONTINUE TO HOVER AROUND 30F WHICH WOULD OF
COURSE TRANSLATE INTO LIGHT FREEZING RAIN. COVERAGE IS LIMITED SO
HAVE ASSIGNED 15-20% CHANCES TO EXTREME SOUTH-CENTRAL KS FOR THIS
MORNING WHERE VERY LITTLE GLAZING SHOULD RESULT. REMAINDER OF
FORECAST HAS BEEN KEPT INTACT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

TODAY:
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS THINKING WITH GRADUAL
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LEADING TO PRECIPITATION SLOWLY
MOVING NORTH AND INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. 0000 UTC MODELS
SHOWED CONSIDERABLE VARIATION ON TIMING/LOCATION OF PRECIPITATION.
CONSENSUS WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES FORCED A SLIGHT NORTHWARD/FASTER
ADJUSTMENT TO FORECAST...BUT GIVEN RELATIVELY DRY AIR AND MODEL
CONSENSUS...WOULD HAVE PREFERRED TO HAVE STAYED WITH PREVIOUS
FORECAST/TIMING/CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.

TONIGHT:
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS MODELS RUNS THIS PERIOD. NAM/GFS/
SREF/ECMWF ALL SHOWING DEEPER MOISTURE WITH LESS CHANCES FOR
DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE AND BETTER CHANCES FOR SNOW. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES THROUGH SNOW
GROWTH ZONE...SO POTENTIAL FOR SOME BANDING AND ENHANCED AMOUNTS
HAS INCREASED. CURRENT THINKING IS FOR 1-2 INCHES AVERAGE IN SWATH
ACROSS MIDDLE OF FORECAST AREA...WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS
PROBABLE. SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 400...COMBO OF RAIN/SNOW MIX AND
TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING WILL SIGNIFICANTLY LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS.
BASED ON NEWER TOTALS...AND FOR PERIOD OF MIXED/FREEZING
PRECIPITATION IN TRANSITION ZONE...HAVE HOISTED WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR AREA ROUGHLY ALONG/NORTH OF HIGHWAY 54. BEST
INSTABILITY/LIFT WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 0000 UTC-0600 UTC WITH
PRECIPITATION SLOWLY WANING AFTER 0600 UTC.

THU-FRI:
LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE MORNING...THEN WANING
TO JUST SOUTHEAST KS IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH SECOND UPPER
WAVE MOVING THROUGH...WILL NEED TO KEEP SMALL CHANCES GOING IN
EXTREME SOUTHEAST KS THROUGH FRI NIGHT. -HOWERTON

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

LITTLE CHANGE TO INITALIZATION GRIDS GIVEN ACTIVE SHORT TERM. DID
KEEP PRECIPITATION GOING MON-MON NIGHT IN FAR SOUTHEAST KS. FOR
AREAS WITH PRECIPITATION...THICKNESSES WOULD SUPPORT MAINLY
RAIN...WITH ONLY SLIVER OF THAT AREA IN A RAIN/SNOW MIX. -HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 607 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

THE SITUATION ACRS CNTRL KS IS PRECARIOUS RIGHT OUT OF THE BLOCKS
WITH KRSL & KSLN RIGHT ON THE SRN PERIMETER OF 700-1300FT CIGS.
KRSL QUICKLY WENT FROM VFR TO IFR IMMEDIATELY AFTER ISSUANCE. KSLN
IS BEING WATCHED CLOSELY. SHORT-TERM MODEL SOUNDINGS DEPICT CIGS
SLOWLY LIFTING TO LOW-END MVFR CAT ~15Z OVER BOTH TERMINALS BUT
THIS TOO WL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY. THE SITUATIONS ACROSS SC
& SE KS DETERIORATE QUICKLY EARLY THIS EVENING AS LWR-DECK
OVERRUNNING HITS WITH A VENGEANCE. ANTICIPATE ALL TERMINALS TO BE
IN IFR CIG STATUS BY 03Z AS -SN SPREADS ACRS THE REGION. ALL AREAS
WL BE IN IFR STATUS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE 12Z TAF CYCLE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    34  32  37  32 /  50  80  30  10
HUTCHINSON      34  31  35  31 /  50  80  30  10
NEWTON          33  30  35  31 /  50  80  40  10
ELDORADO        34  31  36  31 /  50  80  30  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   36  32  38  33 /  50  70  30  10
RUSSELL         32  29  34  29 /  30  80  30  10
GREAT BEND      33  30  35  30 /  40  80  30  10
SALINA          32  30  35  30 /  40  80  40  10
MCPHERSON       33  30  35  30 /  50  80  40  10
COFFEYVILLE     38  34  40  35 /  50  70  30  20
CHANUTE         34  32  38  32 /  50  80  40  20
IOLA            34  31  37  31 /  40  80  40  10
PARSONS-KPPF    36  33  39  34 /  50  80  30  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM CST
THURSDAY FOR KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083.

&&

$$



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