Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 280829
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
329 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC THICKNESS AND STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY
LOW- LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT A
HOT AND BREEZY DAY TODAY. LOW-LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S GENERALLY ALONG/WEST OF I-135.
WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW TRIPLE DIGIT READINGS.

OTHERWISE...SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT SOUTH...REACHING
ROUGHLY THE HIGHWAY 50 OR KS TURNPIKE CORRIDORS BY MID-LATE
AFTERNOON. STRONG HEATING IN CONCERT WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS
NEAR 60F...GIVEN THE STRONG FRONTAL CONVERGENCE...SHOULD BE ENOUGH
TO BREACH THE CAP FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE FRONT BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. MODEST TO POOR MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES COUPLED WITH MARGINAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO MODEST (AT BEST) INSTABILITY...LIMITING
UPDRAFT/STORM STRENGTH. HOWEVER...THE DEGREE OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR
OWING TO PRONOUNCED VEERING OF WINDS WITH HEIGHT SHOULD BE ENOUGH
FOR A HANDFUL OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS. WONDERING IF THE GREATER
COVERAGE WILL BE FROM FAR EASTERN KS ON EAST WHERE BETTER LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE RESIDES. DESPITE THE DECENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR...HAIL
SIZE WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED SOME DUE TO CONCERNS EXPRESSED
ABOVE...ALTHOUGH LARGE LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURE- DEWPOINT SPREADS
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND THREAT. ACTIVITY
SHOULD TEND TO DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT.

FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL COOL A TAD MONDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 90S TO
NEAR 100 DEGREES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTH. MAY SEE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM TUESDAY EVENING
AS THE COLD FRONT BACKDOORS IN FROM THE NORTHEAST AND STALLS
ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH
LIMITED UPPER SUPPORT SHOULD PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY.

ADK

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE FROM MID WEEK
INTO NEXT WEEKEND...WITH A STOUT SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS...AND A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN
NORTH AMERICA. THIS PATTERN WILL FAVOR PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ACROSS THE KANSAS REGION...AS A HANDFUL OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTS PROGRESS SOUTHEAST OVER MID-
AMERICA IN THE PROGRESSIVE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE WARMEST DAY
FROM MID-WEEK AND BEYOND WILL LIKELY BE WEDNESDAY...WITH READINGS
WELL INTO THE 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES. COOLER TEMPERATURES INTO
THE UPPER 80S-LOW 90S SHOULD PREVAIL LATE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND...DUE TO INCREASED CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND LOWER
ATMOSPHERIC THICKNESS.

ADK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

VFR WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS. INCREASING MID CLOUDS ARE ANTICIPATED AS WE MOVE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTH. THIS TROUGH IS PROGGED TO DIG SSE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS EMERGING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
ON SUNDAY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST DURING
THE DAY WHILE SHIFTING TO THE NORTH IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
SCATTERED STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED AFTER 20-21Z ALONG A SOUTHWARD
MOVING COLD FRONT WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES ACROSS SOUTHEAST
KANSAS AROUND/SHORTLY AFTER 00Z MON WHILE LOWER PROBABILITIES WILL
EXIST FURTHER WEST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS AFTER 21-22Z. THE FOCUS
FOR STORMS SHOULD PROPAGATE SOUTH OF THE AREA AFTER 03-05Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    97  66  93  68 /  30  20   0   0
HUTCHINSON      98  61  93  65 /  20  10   0   0
NEWTON          96  64  91  67 /  30  20   0   0
ELDORADO        94  64  90  66 /  30  30   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   95  67  93  68 /  30  30   0   0
RUSSELL         97  61  94  65 /  10   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      97  62  94  65 /  10   0   0   0
SALINA          96  63  93  66 /  10   0   0  10
MCPHERSON       97  62  93  65 /  20  10   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     91  66  91  67 /  30  30   0   0
CHANUTE         91  64  89  65 /  30  40   0   0
IOLA            90  64  89  65 /  40  40   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    91  65  91  65 /  30  40   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$



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