Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 261805
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1205 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

NORTHWEST WINDS SUSTAINED FROM 25 TO 35 MPH IN CENTRAL AND SOUTH-
CENTRAL KS HAVE PROMPTED AN UPDATE TO UP THE WIND ANTE ACROSS
THESE AREAS THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SLOWLY SHIFT TO
THE NORTH THEN NORTHEAST THIS EVENING AND DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY TO
BETWEEN 5 AND 10 MPH AROUND SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS DIGGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES
EARLY THIS MORNING. A PRONOUNCED DRY LAYER CENTERED AROUND H75 HAS
RESULTED IN ONLY A FEW SPRINKLES/FLURRIES REACHING THE GROUND WHILE
T/TD SPREADS REMAINED FAIRLY LARGE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LARGE-
SCALE FORCING FOR SUBSIDENCE IS PROGGED TO INCREASE AS WE MOVE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WE MAY SEE A FEW MORNING
SPRINKLES...BUT THE BIGGER CONCERN MAY BE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
WITHIN A DEEPLY MIXED/SUBSIDENT REGIME IN THE WAKE OF THE CLIPPER-
LIKE SYSTEM. THE PRIMARY CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS TO
INCREASE WIND SPEEDS WITH SEASONABLY COOL HIGHS IN THE 40S/AROUND 50.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL NOSE INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS STATES TONIGHT RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE TEENS AND LOW 20S
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TO THE MID 20S ALONG THE OKLAHOMA STATE LINE.

THANKSGIVING DAY-SATURDAY...RISING HEIGHTS/INCREASING THICKNESS AND
A RETURN OF LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RESULT IN RISING
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY.
SEASONABLY MILD HIGHS AROUND 50 ARE EXPECTED ON THANKSGIVING DAY
WHILE SOME LOCATIONS REACH THE MID 60S ON FRI AND SAT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

ANOTHER SURGE OF CANADIAN AIR IS ANTICIPATED ON SUNDAY. THIS MAY
RESULT IN A WIDE RANGE OF TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE 30S/40S ACROSS CENTRAL KS AND THE LOW
TO MID 60S NEAR THE OK STATE LINE. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
RAPIDLY MODIFY BY TUESDAY AS LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS TO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

THE SOLE CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON IS THAT NW WINDS SUSTAINED AROUND
25 KTS WILL WHISTLE ACROSS MOST AREAS WITH 35 TO 40 MPH GUSTS
LIKELY. WINDS SHOULD SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE N THEN NE AND DIMINISH
CONSIDERABLY FROM 26/23Z TO 27/02Z DURING WHICH PERIOD SUSTAINED
SPEEDS AROUND 7 KTS ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    48  24  48  34 /  10   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      47  22  49  31 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          46  23  46  33 /  10   0   0   0
ELDORADO        47  25  49  35 /  10   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   50  24  48  35 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         45  20  50  29 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      46  22  52  32 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          45  22  48  32 /  10   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       45  22  47  32 /  10   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     50  25  48  34 /  10   0   0   0
CHANUTE         49  23  46  31 /  10   0   0   0
IOLA            47  23  45  30 /  10   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    50  22  47  31 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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