000
FXUS63 KICT 240446
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1141 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

TONIGHT - FRIDAY:
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO PERSIST IN SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS ALONG THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA STATE LINE LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS ACTIVITY IS NEAR/AHEAD OF A WEAK PV ANOMALY WITH YET ANOTHER
WEAK ANOMALY MOVING IN UNDER THE BUILDING RIDGE.  THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
BEYOND THIS EVENING...EXPECTING ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTH AND
WEST AND TRACT NORTH AND EAST OVER THE AREA.  MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE
INDICATES THIS PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND
MOVING NORTHEAST OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL KANSAS.  HAVE
EXPANDED POPS IN THIS MANNER FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.  THE ACTIVITY
MAY CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS FRIDAY OVER
CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS. HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES A LITTLE COOLER
FOR FRIDAY WITH CLOUDS AND ACTIVITY...BUT THINK WHERE
PRECIPITATION ENDS...AND IN THE WARM/MOIST AIR
ADVECTION...TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.

SATURDAY - MEMORIAL DAY:
THERE ARE PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...HOWEVER...NOT EXPECTING THERE TO BE LONG PERIODS OF
RAIN...OR FOR IT TO RAIN ALL WEEKEND. THE WARM FRONT WILL SURGE
NORTHWARD FOR THE WEEKEND AND MOISTURE WILL STREAM NORTHWARD.
DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S ALLOWING FOR PLENTIFUL
INSTABILITY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  WE CANNOT RULE OUT THE CHANCES FOR
SEVERE WEATHER...THROUGHOUT THE PERIODS...BUT ORGANIZED SEVERE
WEATHER IS DIFFICULT WITH THE LACKING SHEAR.  BUT WITH COOLER
MID-LEVEL TEMPS THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ABLE TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS.  THIS ACTIVITY COULD TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS
KANSAS AND IMPACT THE AREA.  DIFFICULT TO PIN ONE DAY DOWN OVER
ANOTHER FOR STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WITH MULTIPLE RIPPLES
MOVING IN BENEATH THE RIDGE...SO STAY TUNED...ESPECIALLY FOR ANY
OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.  SOME SMALL HAIL AND STRONG STRAIGHT LINE WINDS
ARE POSSIBLE WITH ACTIVITY...AND LIGHTNING IS ALWAYS A THREAT.

TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO THE 80S AS
THE RIDGE BUILDS IN OVERHEAD.

BILLINGS

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

TUESDAY - THURSDAY:
DISCREPANCIES AMONG THE VARIOUS GUIDANCE MAGNIFY DURING THIS
PERIOD.  THE LATEST 12Z/23RD GFS IS MORE BULLISH IN BRINGING THE
TROUGH THAT IS SITTING OUT WEST...EASTWARD.  THIS COULD BRING A
CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE AREA...BUT AS MUCH AS THE
GFS GIVES THIS SOLUTION...THE LATEST 12Z/23RD ECMWF IS DIFFERENT.
IT DIGS THE TROUGH SOUTH OVER BAJA AND IS MUCH SLOWER AND FURTHER
SOUTH WITH THE DISTURBANCE. THIS PUSHES ANY STRONG/SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FURTHER INTO THE WEEK. REGARDLESS THIS IS A
PERIOD TO WATCH FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE MODEL OVER ANOTHER IS LOW...SO STAY TUNED.

BILLINGS

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

FORECAST CONCERN REMAINS LOW CLOUDS ALONG OUR WESTERN FLANK LATE
TONIGHT.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO THE HIGH PLAINS WITH
SOME LOWER CIGS ALREADY SHOWING UP OVER FAR WESTERN KS/EASTERN CO.
THIS AREA OF LOW CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY DEVELOP EAST OVERNIGHT AND MAY
FLIRT WITH OUR WESTERN FRINGE. BASED ON 00Z GUIDANCE...DID REMOVE
THE MVFR CIGS FROM KICT AND WILL ONLY RUN WITH SOME AT KRSL AT THIS
TIME AFTER 10Z. SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER FAR WESTERN KS AND SLOWLY APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA BY
SUNRISE. FOR NOW WILL ONLY RUN WITH VCTS AT KRSL AROUND 13Z WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING. JUST NOT SURE HOW FAR EAST THESE
STORMS WILL MAKE IT.

LAWSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    57  74  64  85 /  20  40  30  20
HUTCHINSON      56  75  65  85 /  30  40  30  20
NEWTON          55  72  63  84 /  20  40  30  20
ELDORADO        55  74  62  83 /  20  40  30  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   57  75  63  83 /  50  30  30  20
RUSSELL         54  75  64  89 /  40  40  30  20
GREAT BEND      56  76  65  87 /  40  40  30  20
SALINA          52  73  64  88 /  20  40  30  30
MCPHERSON       54  74  64  86 /  30  40  30  20
COFFEYVILLE     56  75  60  83 /  20  20  20  20
CHANUTE         53  73  59  82 /  10  20  20  20
IOLA            53  72  59  82 /  10  20  20  30
PARSONS-KPPF    55  74  60  82 /  10  20  20  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$