Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KICT 121138
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
638 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014

A DEEP UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY ENCOMPASSES THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
CONUS WITH A SHORTWAVE TRACKING OVER NORTHERN WY/WESTERN SD. THE
STRONG COLD FRONT THAT CAME THROUGH WED IS NOW SITUATED DOWN
ACROSS THE TX COAST WITH ANOTHER REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR
SPILLING-IN BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE BEEN AFFECTING NW KS EARLY THIS
MORNING WHICH IS SITUATED UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A
VERY STRONG UPPER JET. IN ADDITION...A TIGHT MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC
ZONE IS SITUATED THROUGH THIS SAME AREA ALONG WITH SOME ISENTROPIC
LIFT IN THE 325-315K LAYER. THIS AREA OF PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO
TRACK EAST THIS MORNING WITH THE MOST WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY
AFFECTING MAINLY CENTRAL KS...WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE UPPER
DYNAMICS. BY THIS AFTERNOON ONLY FAR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS
WILL BE AFFECTED...WITH THIS ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO BE OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY 00Z. THE REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL
OVERSPREAD THE AREA TONIGHT WITH A COUPLE RECORD LOWS IN JEOPARDY.
THIS AIRMASS WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE EAST WHICH WILL KEEP HIGHS SAT
FROM GETTING OUT OF THE 60S. A BRIEF PERIOD OF RETURN FLOW IS
ANTICIPATED FOR SUN AS THE UPPER PATTERN FLATTENS OUT OVER THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW HIGHS SUN TO APPROACH THE
80 DEGREE MARK.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014

BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE ON TRACKING SHORTWAVE ENERGY OUT OF
SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION BY
MON AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO SLIDE THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA FOR MON THROUGH MON NIGHT WITH PRECIP CHANCES
TIED TO THIS FRONT. THIS AIRMASS IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS COLD AS
THE ONE CURRENTLY OVER US BUT WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM REACHING
SEASONAL NORMALS. THERE IS AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODELS THAT A
PATTERN CHANGE WILL COMMENCE BY MID WEEK WITH SOME RIDGING BUILDING
OVER THE ROCKIES.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 634 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014

LOW MVFR TO IFR CIGS ALONG WITH AREAS OF RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL
AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WITH GRADUALLY
IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON. STOUT
NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY...AS A STRONG
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. SKIES WILL CLEAR
ALL AREAS THIS EVENING...WITH LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT.

ADK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    59  41  66  51 /  40  10   0  10
HUTCHINSON      56  38  66  50 /  50  10   0  10
NEWTON          57  38  66  50 /  40  10   0  10
ELDORADO        59  40  66  50 /  40  10   0  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   60  42  67  53 /  40  10   0  10
RUSSELL         54  36  66  47 /  70   0  10  10
GREAT BEND      54  37  66  50 /  60   0  10  10
SALINA          55  38  65  47 /  60  10   0  10
MCPHERSON       56  37  66  49 /  60  10   0  10
COFFEYVILLE     64  42  67  51 /  20  10   0  10
CHANUTE         61  39  66  49 /  30  10   0  10
IOLA            60  38  65  48 /  30  10   0  10
PARSONS-KPPF    63  41  66  51 /  20  10   0  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$




USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.