Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 230559
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1159 PM CST Wed Feb 22 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 229 PM CST Wed Feb 22 2017

A weak trough is stalled across the region this afternoon. The
Southerly winds in front of the trough is allowing warm
temperatures today which are well above normal. Tonight, a weak
disturbance and some moisture transport will bring a chance for
some light rain across parts of Central and Northeast Kansas.
Raised POPs some to compensate. A strong low pressure system will
be moving into the region Thursday afternoon which will
significantly increase the Southerly winds and the moisture
transport across the region. Unfortunately, most of the forcing is
too far to the North and will keep the bulk of any precipitation
out of the CWA. By the mid to late afternoon the front will come
through and CAA will take over. There will be enough moisture in
North Central Kansas to allow form flurries or drizzle mixed with
flurries Friday morning though. No accumulation is expected. CAA
will dominate much of Friday and Saturday and will keep
temperatures much lower and closer to normal.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 229 PM CST Wed Feb 22 2017

Saturday night things get interesting again.  While moisture transport
is limited during this time, another strong frontal system will
be coming through the region. There will be enough moisture with
this system and plenty of forcing to allow for rain and some
showers over much of the CWA. Conditions during this time indicate
a slight chance for some thunderstorm activity but kept it out of
the forecast at this time as the strongest forcing, PV and
instability look to be too far to the South and East to allow
this.

Drier air will come back into the region turning off any
precipitation that is in the area. This where the models become
problematic. The ECMWF and GFS diverge into next week. GEFS plumes
are also difficult showing a very wide spread. The GFS is one of
the warmest members of the GEFS and one of the driest. The ECMWF
is a little cooler but much wetter. As such, confidence is low in
the long range and could see the temperatures several degrees
cooler than currently forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1159 PM CST Wed Feb 22 2017

At issuance, low pressure was strengthening over SE CO as expected.
The low will undergo further cyclogenesis as it drifts E acrs SW KS
thrut the day Thu. This would cause what is now an almost stnry fnt
draped alg the KS/OK bdr to undergo warm frontogenesis Thu Mrng w/
the bdnry lifting due N Thu Aftn. The incr`g lwr-deck moisture ad-
vection ocrg acrs SE KS is lkly to produce LIFR stratus to dvlp at
KCNU ~12Z w/ KCNU rmn`g stratified til ~16Z when onsetting & incrg
sly flow to ~13kt wl scour the stratus from the terminal. Smlr
trends in winds to ocr at KICT & KHUT. Winds acrs Nrn & Cntrl KS
to be ely & gradually incr to ~17kts sustained Thu Mrng. MVFR
stratocu ~2,000-2,500ft wl lkly dvlp acrs Cntrl KS late Thu Mrng.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 229 PM CST Wed Feb 22 2017

A trough stalled across the region has set up a very dry airmass
in the Northwestern parts of the CWA today which allowing dew
point temperature to fall into the upper teens. In Southeast and
South Central Kansas, Southerly winds have kept the dew point in
the mid 40s for the most part.

A cold front will come through late tomorrow which will kick the
winds out of the Northwest. Friday the winds will be the highest
bringing the Grassland Fire Danger Index into the very high
category.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    46  75  38  47 /  10  10   0   0
Hutchinson      45  73  35  45 /  10  10   0  10
Newton          45  72  36  45 /  10  10   0  10
ElDorado        47  74  38  48 /  10  10   0  10
Winfield-KWLD   48  77  40  51 /   0   0   0   0
Russell         41  68  30  37 /   0  10  30  20
Great Bend      42  71  31  40 /   0  10  30  10
Salina          44  70  35  42 /  10  20  10  20
McPherson       45  72  34  43 /  10  10  10  10
Coffeyville     49  79  44  56 /   0  10   0   0
Chanute         48  77  42  54 /   0  10  10   0
Iola            48  77  42  52 /   0  20  10   0
Parsons-KPPF    49  79  43  55 /   0  10  10   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ELM
LONG TERM...ELM
AVIATION...EPS
FIRE WEATHER...ELM



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