Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 281633
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1133 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

TODAY-TONIGHT:
FOCUS IS ON APPROACHING FRONT AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES. DECENT
CONVERGENCE RAMPS UP BETWEEN 2100 UTC AND 0000 UTC WITH SCATTERED
STORMS LIKELY THIS EVENING. FRONT SHOULD EXIT SOUTHEAST KS JUST
AFTER DAYBREAK WED. WILL LOOK A BIT CLOSER AT SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...BUT AT LEAST UPPER END STRONG STORMS
SHOULD BE POSSIBLE. THERE IS ALSO THE ISSUE OF THE EXISTING HEAT
ADVISORY. GIVEN STIFF WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...AND MIXING AT LEAST
AS GOOD AS YESTERDAY...WIDESPREAD 105 HEAT INDICES APPEARS UNLIKELY.
HOWEVER WILL KEEP ADVISORY GOING FOR CONSISTENCY.

WED-THU:
WHILE FRONT WILL LIKELY REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGHOUT THIS
PERIOD...THERE IS A GOOD POTENTIAL FOR EITHER ELEVATED STORMS TO
DEVELOP AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVERRUNS THE SHALLOW COOLER AIR...OR
EVEN MORE LIKELY...STORMS DEVELOP IN UPSLOPE FLOW AND MOVE INTO
THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT. EITHER SCENARIO FAVORS HIGHER
PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
HIGHS WILL DROP INTO THE 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS BOTH DAYS. -HOWERTON

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO INITIALIZATION GRIDS. GRADUAL WARMUP IS
ANTICIPATED. LACK OF LOW LEVEL FOCUS AND WEAK FLOW ALOFT WILL
LIMIT PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS PERIOD. GFS DOES ATTEMPT TO PUSH
ANOTHER ON MONDAY...BUT ECMWF KEEPS IT IN NEBRASKA. OUTCOME WILL
LIKELY DEPEND ON EXTENT OF CONVECTION ACROSS HIGH PLAINS. -HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1127 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA TO NORTHWEST KANSAS AT
MIDDAY...IS PROGGED TO REACH CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST KS BY EARLY
EVENING. THE FRONT WILL THEN PUSH INTO FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA
DURING WEDNESDAY. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND STRONG INSOLATION
ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD EVENTUALLY ALLOW...CONVECTIVE UPDRAFTS TO
DEEPEN AND PENETRATE THE VERY WARM AIR ALOFT TOWARD EVENING.
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS SHOULD AFFECT CENTRAL/SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS THIS EVENING...BEFORE WEAKENING LATE TONIGHT.
STRONG/VARIABLE WIND GUSTS AND BRIEF DOWNPOURS WITH REDUCTIONS IN
VISIBILITY ARE THE MAIN THREATS WITH THESE STORMS. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT   100  72  88  68 /  10  40  30  40
HUTCHINSON     101  70  86  66 /  30  60  30  40
NEWTON         100  70  87  66 /  20  40  30  40
ELDORADO        99  70  88  66 /  10  30  30  30
WINFIELD-KWLD   98  73  92  68 /  10  20  20  30
RUSSELL         94  65  84  64 /  20  30  20  30
GREAT BEND      95  67  83  65 /  30  40  20  40
SALINA         100  68  85  66 /  40  50  20  30
MCPHERSON      100  69  85  66 /  40  60  30  40
COFFEYVILLE     96  74  93  68 /   0  10  10  10
CHANUTE         96  72  89  66 /   0  20  20  10
IOLA            96  72  88  66 /   0  20  20  10
PARSONS-KPPF    95  74  91  67 /   0  10  20  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ049-051>053-
067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$



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