Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 271112
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
612 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

TODAY-TONIGHT: CURRENT WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A NICE
JET STREAK CURRENTLY ROUNDING THE SE CORNER OF A POTENT SHORTWAVE
THIS IS MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE WASATCH RANGE OF UT. AS THIS JET
STREAK MOVES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS...THINK THE RIGHT FRONT QUAD OF
THIS JET WILL INCREASE LIFT AND CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOST THE HIGH PLAINS TODAY. ALREADY SEEING SOME
SIGNS OF THIS...AS SHOWERS CONTINUE TO FILL IN ACROSS SW KS. MOST
OF THE SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY WILL PROPAGATE TO THE NORTHEAST
EVENTUALLY MOVING INTO CENTRAL AND POSSIBLY SOUTH CENTRAL KS LATE
THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE UNTIL MIDDAY.

THINK THE MORNING SHOWERS WILL WANE SOME AS THE AFTERNOON
PROGRESSES...BUT THINK THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS JUST TO
THE NW OF CENTRAL KS. SO WILL GO WITH SOLID CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF
CENTRAL KS TONIGHT...AS BOTH THE GFS AND NAM/WRF SHOW 850-700H
FN-CONVERGENCE INCREASING INTO CENTRAL KS TONIGHT.

THU-FRI: SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE ROCKIES WILL MAKE SLOW PROGRESS
INTO THE PLAINS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. LATEST GFS AND NAM/WRF
SHOWS A LEAD IMPULSE LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS ON THU. THIS IMPULSE WILL INCREASE THE
850-700H MOISTURE TRANSPORT ACROSS THE AREA...WITH 315-310K
ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASING AS WELL FOR A SCATTERED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCE FOR MOST OF THU INTO THU NIGHT. SO THU
CERTAINLY LOOKS RAINY WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. COULD EVEN SEE
SOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS ON THU AFTERNOON ACROSS
CENTRAL KS...AS INSTABILITY WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH (1200-1500 J/KG)
WITH BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 35-40 KTS.

THE OFF AND ON SHOWER CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THU NIGHT AS WELL
AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THE MAIN SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA INTO THU NIGHT. INCREASING FN-CONVERGENCE
WITH THIS MOISTURE AXIS OVER THE AREA COULD LEAD TO A SUBTLE HEAVY
RAIN EVENT FOR PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH SOME AREAS
POSSIBLY PICKING UP 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL BY FRI MORNING. EVEN
WITH THAT SAID...THIS LOOKS LIKE A GREAT CHANCE FOR MOST AREAS TO
PICK UP SOME HEALTHY QUANTITATIVE PRECIP AMOUNTS...WITH THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH TO ONE INCH AMOUNTS COMMON ACROSS THE AREA
OUTSIDE OF THE HEAVIER AMOUNTS MENTIONED ABOVE.

WILL SEE THE MAIN AXIS OF HEAVIER PRECIP SHIFT INTO THE FLINT HILLS
ON FRIDAY...AS SHORTWAVE PLODS ACROSS THE PLAINS. COULD STILL SEE
LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL KS ALSO SEE SOME SHOWERS
ON FRIDAY...AS INFLUENCE AND LIFT FROM THE MAIN SHORTWAVE PUSHES
ACROSS THE AREA.

ONE BENEFIT OF THE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS WILL BE
COOLER TEMPS FOR END OF THE WEEK.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL PLAY OUT...AS
TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS KS IS STILL IN QUESTION.
LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN SPEEDING UP THIS SHORTWAVE...LIFTING
EAST OF THE AREA BY SAT MORNING. THIS WILL END PRECIP CHANCES FROM
WEST TO EAST BY SAT AFTERNOON. PREFER A MORE PESSIMISTIC AND SLOWER
SOLUTION...GIVEN TRENDS FROM PREVIOUS MODELS RUNS OF BEING SLOWER
WITH THIS SYSTEM..SO WILL KEEP POPS AROUND UNTIL SAT NIGHT.

COULD SEE A NICE WARMUP FOR SUN...AS ZONAL FLOW LEADS TO SURFACE
WINDS RETURNING TO SOUTH. SUNDAY COULD ACTUALLY BE QUITE BREEZY AS
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE QUICKLY MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...WITH
A SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPING IN THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL LEAD TO
MORE SEASONAL TYPE TEMPS IN THE LOW 90S FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 610 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

RAIN SHOWERS LOOK TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS
THIS MORNING WITH LIGHT SOUTH WINDS EXPECTED. MEANWHILE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN OVER WESTERN KANSAS
THIS AFTERNOON...AND COULD EXPAND EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL KANSAS FOR
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

JAKUB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    95  73  89  70 /  20  30  40  50
HUTCHINSON      95  72  86  68 /  30  40  50  50
NEWTON          94  72  88  68 /  20  30  40  50
ELDORADO        95  72  91  69 /  10  20  30  50
WINFIELD-KWLD   96  72  92  70 /  10  20  30  50
RUSSELL         92  68  85  66 /  50  50  50  50
GREAT BEND      92  69  85  66 /  40  50  50  50
SALINA          95  72  87  69 /  30  40  50  50
MCPHERSON       95  71  86  68 /  30  40  50  50
COFFEYVILLE     97  72  94  71 /  10  10  10  40
CHANUTE         95  72  93  70 /  20  10  10  40
IOLA            94  72  93  69 /  20  10  10  40
PARSONS-KPPF    96  72  94  70 /  10  10  10  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







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