Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 171738
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1138 AM CST MON NOV 17 2014

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 AM CST MON NOV 17 2014

A VERY AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN WILL PERSIST
ACROSS NORTH AMERICA DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH A DEEP LONGWAVE UPPER
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM EASTERN CANADA SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN CONUS. UPPER RIDGING WILL PERSIST FROM THE WESTERN
STATES UP INTO WESTERN CANADA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE AREA TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH MUCH COLDER THAN AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES PERSISTING...AIDED BY REMNANT LIGHT SNOWCOVER. BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP TOWARD MIDDAY...THEN DIMINISHING
TOWARD THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MODERATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH SOME DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES...HOWEVER READINGS WILL STILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE.

JMC

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 AM CST MON NOV 17 2014

THE UPPER PATTERN IS PROGGED TO GRADUALLY
DEAMPLIFY DURING THIS EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH THE FLOW PATTERN COMING
MORE OFF THE PACIFIC ACROSS THE CONUS FOR THE WEEKEND. THE 00Z/17TH
GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW A POLAR AIRMASS COMING OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA
INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. SHALLOW COLD
AIR IS PROGGED TO BACKDOOR SOUTHWESTWARD INTO EASTERN KANSAS
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY BEFORE RETREATING NORTHEASTWARD FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE BRUNT OF THE POLAR AIR WILL TARGET THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO
VALLEY...BUT WE EXPECT COOLER THAN NORMAL AIR IN PLACE FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY...BEFORE TEMPERATURES MODERATE BACK TO SEASONAL OVER
THE WEEKEND. A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE IS PROJECTED TO PASS
EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...HOWEVER MARGINAL MOISTURE RETURN AND PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL LOOKS TO REMAIN JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF OUR FORECAST
AREA. A STRONGER LOOKING SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH IS THEN PROJECTED TO
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEFORE TURNING NORTHEAST TO THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD DRAW
DEEPER MOISTURE/LIFT INTO SOUTHEAST KS AND AREAS TO THE
EAST/SOUTH SUPPORTING PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THERMAL PROFILES
SUGGEST RAIN AS THE PRECIPITATION TYPE.

JMC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1138 AM CST MON NOV 17 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU THE FORECAST VALID
PERIOD. A PERIOD OF VFR STRATOCU CIGS WILL AFFECT CENTRAL
KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE AREA LATER TODAY AND INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
DIMINISH BY THIS EVENING AND BACK TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST BY
TUESDAY MORNING.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    28   9  38  26 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      29   8  39  24 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          26   8  37  24 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        27   9  35  25 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   28  10  36  26 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         28   8  40  23 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      29   8  41  23 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          27   7  37  24 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       27   7  38  24 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     28   9  34  28 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         26   8  32  25 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            26   7  32  25 /   0   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    27   9  33  24 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$



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