Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
869
FXUS63 KICT 270503
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1203 AM CDT WED JUL 27 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 940 PM CDT Tue Jul 26 2016

The thunderstorms that were occurring over far Southeast KS have
dissipated "on schedule". As such all products have been updated
to announce these changes.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 338 PM CDT Tue Jul 26 2016

Convective trends with potential MCS tracks the next few nights
remains the main challenge. Isolated to widely scattered diurnally
driven convection developed as expected near the Oklahoma border
primarily in southeast Kansas this afternoon. Expect this activity
to wane toward sunset with perhaps a couple strong storms with
gusty winds possible. Otherwise the main focus for convection will
be across the northern Plains this evening into the overnight. Some
patchy fog is possible in low-lying areas of the Flint Hills and
central Kansas. Mesoscale outflow of the expected storm clusters or
MCS evolving from the northern Plains tonight will likely modulate
the effective surface front southward into southern Nebraska and
perhaps close to the Kansas border during Wednesday. A shortwave
now moving over the far northwest CONUS should venture across the
northern Plains during peak heating Wednesday afternoon/evening.
These features should be sufficient to focus and force convection
along the surface front by early Wednesday evening. A modest
increase in winds aloft is expected to develop in proximity to the
developing storm cluster which should increase the cloud-bearing
deep layer shear and aid in storm maintenance with a southeastward
movement/propagation across north central and portions of eastern
Kansas Wednesday night. The challenge then becomes how far south
the convective complex and resultant mesoscale outflow comes and
modulates the airmass for Thursday and the position of the
effective surface front across the area. After any lingering
convection early Thursday morning there could be a relative lull
into the afternoon, though will maintain slight to modest chance
PoPs. However, upslope flow focused north of the front across
western Kansas and another approaching shortwave aloft late
Thursday should result in another convective cluster or MCS over
the high Plains which would tend to move/propagate across western
into portions of central Kansas Thursday night. Friday should be
the coolest day of the next few in the wake of Thursday nights
system and perhaps drier than indicated, though will maintain a
modest PoP through the day as there is enough uncertainty with the
expected convection the next few days and where the effective
boundary will actually be situated by Friday.

Darmofal

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 338 PM CDT Tue Jul 26 2016

Upper ridge still on track to build over the central CONUS
by early next week so the trend toward hot and dry still looks
reasonable.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1203 AM CDT Wed Jul 27 2016

There`s renewed potl for ~1500 ft stratus to spread acrs most of
Cntrl & SC KS twd daybreak as weak E-SE flow conts. Possess
sufficient confidence to place most terminals (spcly KICT, KHUT, &
KSLN) in MVFR cig status from ~10-14Z. Cigs shud fairly quickly to
~3,000 ft 16-18Z. W/ dense Cirriform debris from TSRA ocrg fm Cntrl
Nebraska to the CO/KS bdr the potl for BR aprs minimal for Cntrl KS
twd ~10Z but wl `air` on side of caution & assign 5SM BR to Cntrl
KS terminals.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    72  92  72  91 /  20  10  40  30
Hutchinson      70  91  71  90 /  10  10  50  30
Newton          70  90  71  89 /  20  10  50  30
ElDorado        71  91  71  89 /  30  10  40  40
Winfield-KWLD   72  91  72  92 /  30  20  30  30
Russell         69  92  69  89 /  10  20  50  20
Great Bend      69  92  70  89 /  10  10  40  20
Salina          70  93  70  90 /  10  20  60  20
McPherson       71  91  71  89 /  10  10  50  30
Coffeyville     72  91  72  91 /  60  20  30  40
Chanute         72  90  71  89 /  50  20  30  40
Iola            71  90  71  89 /  40  20  40  40
Parsons-KPPF    72  91  72  90 /  50  20  30  40

&&

.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...EPS
SHORT TERM...KED
LONG TERM...KED
AVIATION...EPS



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.