Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 301655
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1155 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1151 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

UPDATED TO DROP HIGHS TODAY A FEW DEGREES.

BASED ON TRENDS WENT AHEAD AND DROPPED HIGHS TODAY A COUPLE
DEGREES AREA WIDE WITH THE BIGGEST CHANGE COMING FOR EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE CLOUDS WILL REMAIN THROUGH
MOST OF THE DAY.

LAWSON

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

A STABLE POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS HAS SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT
IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. THIS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A PERIOD
OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING. HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S
WHILE NORMAL HIGHS ARE IN THE LOW 80S.  AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...LOWS MAY FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. NORMAL LOWS FOR LATE MAY ARE AROUND 60.

SUN-MON...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND ON SUNDAY AS
SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW RETURNS TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS RESULTING
IN SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. A MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO AMPLIFY
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AREA WHILE NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. THE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT
BRINGING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY AND MAINTAINED
LOW POPS MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING WHERE SOME ELEVATED STORMS COULD DEVELOP. SOME LINGERING
CLOUDS ON MON MAY KEEP HIGHS FROM CLIMBING OUT OF THE LOW-MID 70S IN
SOME LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

THE LONGER RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A
PATTERN CHANGE FOR THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A RETURN TO MID/UPPER
RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. THIS SHOULD
SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A TREND TOWARD DRIER WEATHER.
THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS LATE TUE-FRI BUT BETTER CHANCES MAY REMAIN
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 607 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

MAIN CONCERN: STRATUS TRENDS

SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO CENTRAL KANSAS FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TODAY INTO TONIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 KNOTS
THIS MORNING...WILL DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON. DRIER AIR SPREADING
INTO CENTRAL KANSAS...SHOULD ALLOW MVFR CEILINGS TO LIFT AND
DISSIPATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. OVER SOUTHEASTERN
KANSAS...FAIRLY CONFIDENT THAT STRATUS WILL LINGER TODAY WITH IFR
LIFTING TO MVFR AT THE CNU TERMINAL. THE STRATUS MAY BREAK UP AT
CNU THIS EVENING...HOWEVER THE NAM-WRF SHOWS STRATUS TRYING TO
BACK IN FROM THE NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT FROM MISSOURI.

JMC


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    67  52  75  56 /  10   0  10  10
HUTCHINSON      68  49  76  56 /  10   0   0  20
NEWTON          66  49  72  54 /  10   0  10  10
ELDORADO        65  51  75  54 /  10   0  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   67  51  76  55 /  10   0  10  10
RUSSELL         67  47  76  56 /   0   0   0  20
GREAT BEND      68  48  76  57 /   0   0   0  20
SALINA          66  50  75  56 /  10   0   0  20
MCPHERSON       67  48  73  55 /  10   0   0  20
COFFEYVILLE     65  53  75  52 /  10   0  10  10
CHANUTE         64  52  73  52 /  10   0  10  10
IOLA            64  53  72  53 /  10   0  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    64  52  74  53 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$


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