Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 171001
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
401 AM CST Sat Feb 17 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 400 AM CST Sat Feb 17 2018

Rest of the weekend:
At 3 AM CDT, a weak surface trough extended from the southeast SD/
northeast Nebraska border to southeast CO. Well to the SE of the
trough a broad moisture axis covered most of OK, and had crossed
the OK/KS border. Widespread light rain has been occurring across
OK has spread NE into primarily southeast KS. The afore-mentioned
surface trough is still expected to push SE across KS this morning
in response to a mid-level shortwave that`ll sprint E/SE. As the
shortwave surges across the MS Valley, the surface trough would
surge SE & should cross the KS/MO border early this afternoon. The
light rain that`ll occur across primarily southeast KS will
quickly end around 9 AM. NW flow would advect much warmer & drier
air across KS which would elevate the grassland fire danger across
all of central & most of south-central KS where it`ll reach the
"Very High" category. The pattern is very progressive, so the
surface high that`ll follow the surface trough would quickly move
E across MS Valley tonight as the next, & stronger, surface trough
punches almost due south from the northwestern plains to eastern
CO. With this next surface trough being much stronger, the
resulting S-SW winds would likewise be much stronger & would
further elevate the grassland fire danger. It`s likely an extreme
grassland fire danger will exist across much of central KS Sun
afternoon.

Sunday night-Mon night:
This 2nd NE-SW oriented lower-deck trough will push into KS Sun
night & would cause markedly increasing warm, moist advection,
especially across southeast KS. The 2nd mid-upper shortwave will
move very slowly E likely progressing no further than NM by Mon
night. This would prolong the rain & possible thunderstorms across
southeast KS throughout these periods. Heavy rains are possible in
southeast KS Mon night.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 400 AM CST Sat Feb 17 2018

It`ll be a wet start to the work-week as the mid-upper trof will
continue to make slow eastward progress. The rain occurring across
southeast KS would slowly come to an end Tue night with a change
to light snow. Dry weather is slated for the middle of the week as
semi-zonal regime dominates. The shot for rain should arrive Thu
night as yet another shortwave ventures E toward the southern
plains late Thu night.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1123 PM CST Fri Feb 16 2018

Light southeast winds will gradually increase while veering to
the west and northwest during the day on Saturday becoming breezy
at times with gusts in the 20-30 knot range. We may see a period
of light precipitation across far southeast KS while some
transient MVFR cigs impact portions of south central and southeast
KS in the 10-15Z timeframe. VFR will rapidly return early on Sat
with clearing anticipated through the day. Gusty northwest winds
will prevail through the afternoon hours before diminishing.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 400 AM CST Sat Feb 17 2018

*Corrected 7th line.*

Fire danger concerns will become increasingly elevated across the
entire region. Winds will shift to the NW today to produce a very
high grassland fire danger in central & south-central KS this
afternoon. An extreme grassland fire danger is very possible in
most of central KS on Sun as winds become southwesterly & increase
from 25 to 35 mph, with gusts around 35 mph and spread much warmer
& drier air into KS. Outdoor burning is strongly discouraged on
Sun.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    59  35  63  55 /   0   0   0  10
Hutchinson      58  34  65  52 /   0   0   0  10
Newton          58  34  62  53 /   0   0   0  20
ElDorado        58  35  61  54 /  10   0   0  20
Winfield-KWLD   60  36  63  58 /  10   0  10  20
Russell         57  34  71  40 /   0   0   0  10
Great Bend      57  35  70  44 /   0   0   0  10
Salina          57  34  66  49 /   0   0   0  20
McPherson       58  34  65  51 /   0   0   0  10
Coffeyville     59  33  62  58 /  90   0  10  50
Chanute         58  32  60  56 /  80   0   0  50
Iola            58  32  60  55 /  70   0   0  40
Parsons-KPPF    59  33  61  57 /  90   0   0  50

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EPS
LONG TERM...EPS
AVIATION...MWM
FIRE WEATHER...EPS


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