000
FXUS63 KICT 172038
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
338 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS FOCUS AROUND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
SATURDAY LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.

CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL MOIST ADVECTION IN CONCERT WITH DIURNAL COOLING
SHOULD ALLOW LOW CLOUDS TO SPREAD/DEVELOP NORTH ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT. SHOULD SEE PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG AFTER 3-4AM ESPECIALLY FOR
UPSLOPE-FAVORED REGIONS WEST OF I-135. COULD POTENTIALLY SEE
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG ALONG/WEST OF HIGHWAY 14...LATER SHIFTS WILL
NEED TO MONITOR.

THINKING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT-SAT MORNING
WILL BE SMALL...DUE TO STOUT LOW-LEVEL CAPPING AND MID-LEVEL
RIDGING. HOWEVER...CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT ISOLATED ACTIVITY
TOWARD DAWN AS MODEST 850-700MB WARM/MOIST ADVECTION COMMENCES AHEAD
OF A SUBTLE UPPER WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. PER
NAM...PARCELS LIFTING FROM NEAR 800MB MAY ONLY BE WEAKLY/MODESTLY
CAPPED...SO CANNOT RULE IT OUT. IF ANYTHING CAN DEVELOP...SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED DUE TO WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR.

BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...SUBTLE SHORTWAVE ENERGY CURRENTLY OVER
NORTHWEST MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO EJECT NORTHEAST...ACTING TO SHARPEN
AND BULGE A DRYLINE OVER WESTERN KS. CONSEQUENTLY...IF THE CAP CAN
BE BREACHED...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG/JUST AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE AFTER 4PM. STRONG TO
POTENTIALLY EXTREME INSTABILITY (OWING TO STEEP LAPSE RATES AND RICH
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE) COUPLED WITH 30-40 KTS OF SHEAR ORIENTED
PERPENDICULAR TO THE DRYLINE WOULD FAVOR SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. BACKED LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND RICH MOISTURE
WOULD ALSO FAVOR A FEW TORNADOES. QUESTION IS HOW FAR EAST WILL THIS
POTENTIAL ACTIVITY REMAIN SEVERE DURING THE EVENING? THINKING THE
HIGHEST THREAT WILL BE WEST OF THE I-135 CORRIDOR...AS *STOUT*
CAPPING WILL LIKELY DISCOURAGE PROGRESSION MUCH FURTHER EAST THAN
THAT.

PER NAM/ECMWF/GFS CONSENSUS...THE DRYLINE/COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
PROGRESS EAST...SHIFTING THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT GENERALLY
ALONG/EAST OF THE I-135 CORRIDOR FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...AS A
2ND A MORE IMPRESSIVE UPPER WAVE EJECTS NORTHEAST. EVEN THOUGH THE
THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS HIGH...THE MAGNITUDE OF THE SEVERE
THREAT REMAINS IN QUESTION DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR...1) VEERED OUT
LOW-LEVEL WINDS...2) SQUIRRELY MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW...AND 3)
GREATEST DRYLINE CONVERGENCE OVER OKLAHOMA. GFS WOULD SUGGEST THE
GREATEST THREAT FOR HIGHER-END SEVERE WEATHER WITH BETTER MID-LEVEL
FLOW AND BACKED SURFACE WINDS...WHILE NAM IS THE LEAST FAVORABLE FOR
HIGHER-END SEVERE WEATHER. DUE TO THIS DISAGREEMENT...DO NOT WANT TO
OVERHYPE...BUT WANT TO STRESS THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR HIGHER-END
SEVERE WEATHER IN THE FORM OF VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND A
FEW TORNADOES SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

ADK

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013

PER MODEL CONSENSUS...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES COULD CONTINUE OVER
SOUTHEAST KS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...AS BOUNDARY STALLS IN RESPONSE
TO UPPER ENERGY CONTINUING TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST. ONCE
AGAIN...DEGREE OF INSTABILITY WOULD PROMOTE SEVERE STORMS...ALTHOUGH
SUSPECT HIGHER-END SEVERE THREAT IS LOWER DUE TO ORIENTATION OF
FRONT.

A RETURN TO SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED IN WAKE OF THIS
SYSTEM FOR EARLY-MID WEEK...WITH SEASONABLE HIGHS IN 70S TO LOW 80S.
SUSPECT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE LOW AS RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION BY MID/LATE WEEK...ALTHOUGH RETURN 850-700MB FLOW MAY PROVIDE
A FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION BY LATE WEEK.

ADK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1201 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013

WHILE STRATOCU WILL SCATTER OUT THIS AFTERNOON THE SOUTHEAST LOW
LEVEL MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL PROMOTE STRATUS AND FOG AGAIN
LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE AREA. CONFIDENCE IS
RATHER HIGH FOR IFR CIGS AND VSBYS WITH POTENTIAL FOR LIFR. FOR NOW
HAVE INCLUDED PREVAILING IFR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. CONVECTIVE
CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW WITH BETTER POTENTIAL STAYING WEST OF THE
AREA ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS UNTIL LATER ON SATURDAY AND MORE LIKELY
ON SUNDAY.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    66  87  69  86 /  10  10  20  50
HUTCHINSON      66  87  68  85 /  10  20  30  40
NEWTON          66  86  68  85 /  10  10  20  50
ELDORADO        65  86  69  85 /  10  10  20  50
WINFIELD-KWLD   67  88  69  87 /  10  10  20  50
RUSSELL         64  88  66  83 /  10  30  40  30
GREAT BEND      65  88  65  83 /  10  40  40  30
SALINA          64  87  69  85 /  10  10  20  40
MCPHERSON       65  87  68  85 /  10  10  20  40
COFFEYVILLE     65  86  70  87 /  10  10  20  50
CHANUTE         63  86  70  85 /  10  10  20  50
IOLA            63  86  69  84 /  10  10  20  50
PARSONS-KPPF    64  86  70  85 /  10  10  20  50

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$