Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 030526
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1126 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016

THIS AFTERNOON...A VICIOUS CYCLONE THAT HAS BEEN PRODUCING A WINTER
STORM (FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL NEBRASKA & NORTHWEST KS A BLIZZARD) WAS
CENTERED OVER EXTREME NORTHEAST KS JUST W OF KCNK. THE OCCLUDING
CYCLONE IS RACING NE TOWARD THE CORNERS OF NORTHEAST KS...SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA & NORTHWEST MO. A COLD FRONT CURVES SE FROM THE CYCLONE
THROUGH THE HEART OF KS...NORTHWEST OK & WEST TX...TO EASTERN NM.
AREAS OF LIGHT-MODERATE SNOW CONTINUE TO WRAP AROUND THE NORTHWEST
& WESTERN PERIPHERIES & HAVE BEEN SPREADING INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL
KS AS FAR SE AS ELLSWORTH COUNTY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016

TONIGHT:
THE HIGHLIGHTS ARE 1) WINDS & 2) HOW FAR SE THE SNOW WILL VENTURE
TOWARD SOUTH-CENTRAL KS. AT THE RATE THE CYCLONE IS SPRINTING NE
WINDS WOULD DIMINISH. (BUT ONLY GRADUALLY FOR THE W/NW GRADIENT
REMAINS TIGHT.) THE EXPIRATION TIME OF THE WIND ADVISORY (UNTIL 6
PM CST) THAT COVERS ALL OF KICT COUNTRY LOOKS GOOD. CONSIDERING
THE STRENGTH OF THE CYCLONE THE ONLY CHANGE TO THE INHERITED
FORECAST WAS TO SPREAD LIGHT SNOW FURTHER S/SE ACROSS ALL OF
CENTRAL KS TO AS FAR AS NORTHEAST RENO...MOST OF HARVEY...AND
NORTHERN BUTLER COUNTIES ALTHOUGH THE NE SPRINTING CYCLONE
DICTATES ONLY A 15-20% POP ASSIGNMENT FOR ALL 3 COUNTIES. THE
LIGHT SNOW WOULD RAPIDLY VACATE THESE AREAS FROM 9-11 PM.

WED & WED NIGHT:
AS THE CYCLONE CONTINUES ITS NE SPRINT ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY
WED MORNING & THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WED AFTERNOON A STRENGTHENING
UPPER-DECK SHORTWAVE WILL SPRINT SE ACROSS KS ON WED. MOISTURE IS
GREATLY LACKING SO MORE THAN AN INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
SIGNAL THE WAVE`S ARRIVAL. THE NW WINDS WILL DIMINISH MORE QUICKLY
LATE WED AFTERNOON THEN BACK TOWARD THE WEST WED NIGHT. THE
ONSETTING DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT WOULD BE WEAK. AS SUCH WED NIGHT`S
LOWS WOULD BE A FEW DEGREES COLDER THAN TONIGHT`S WITH CENTRAL KS
LIKELY DROPPING TO ~15F.

THU-FRI:
A 3RD UPPER-DECK SHORTWAVE WILL DEVELOP QUICKLY OVER THE GREAT
BASIN ON THU THEN STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES E/SE ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS
THU NIGHT. AS THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...SFC
TROFFING WOULD GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN OVER THE SWRN PLAINS. AS SUCH
WARMER WEATHER IS STILL SCHEDULED WITH FRI`S HIGHS LIKELY REACHING
THE LOWER 50S ALONG & S OF HIGHWAY 54/400.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016

SAT-SUNDAY NIGHT:
AS THE SWRN U.S. UPPER-DECK WAVE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AS IT
MOVES E/SE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FRI NIGHT & SAT MORNING YET
ANOTHER UPPER-DECK SHORTWAVE (THIS ONE MORE COMPACT) WILL SURGE E
ACROSS MT SAT MORNING & THE DAKOTAS SAT NIGHT. THE PERTURBATION
WOULD THEN SURGE SE ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY SUN AFTERNOON. THE
STRENGTHENING SHORTWAVE WILL KICK A PRE-COLD FRONTAL SFC TROF SE
ACROSS KS SUN & SUN EVENING. A SUFFICIENT W/NW COMPONENT WOULD
PRODUCE FAIRLY WARM WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND.

MON-TUE:
COLDER WEATHER RETURNS MON NIGHT AS LOWER-DECK FLOW BECOMES MORE
NLY WITH TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016

PESKY SFC LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN ACROSS NW MO AT THIS TIME...WITH
GUSTY NW WINDS AND MVFR CEILINGS ON THE W-SW SIDE OF THE LOW.  ALSO
STILL SEEING SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES CO-LOCATED WITH THE MVFR
CEILINGS.

EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO HANG AROUND FOR MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT ACROSS
CENTRAL KS...AS THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT NE OF THE
PLAINS.  THE WORST LOCATION WILL BE NEAR KSLN WHERE SOME LINGERING
LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES MAY REDUCE VSBYS TO AROUND 2SM...SO WILL
INCLUDE THIS MENTION IN A TEMPO GROUP...UNTIL THE LOW PULLS FURTHER
NE.

EXPECT THE GUSTY NW WINDS TO REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA FOR MOST OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE GRADIENT ON THE SW SIDE OF THE LOW STAYS
TIGHT.

EXPECT AN IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS FOR MOST LOCATIONS EARLY ON
WED MORNING...WITH MOST LOCATIONS RETURNING TO VFR BY 12Z/WED.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    24  37  21  47 /  10   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      22  35  20  44 /  10   0   0   0
NEWTON          23  34  20  44 /  20   0   0   0
ELDORADO        24  36  21  47 /  10   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   24  38  22  47 /  10   0   0   0
RUSSELL         18  30  13  38 /  20   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      19  31  16  41 /  10   0   0   0
SALINA          22  32  18  40 /  30   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       22  33  19  43 /  20   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     28  40  23  47 /  10   0   0   0
CHANUTE         27  37  22  46 /  10   0   0   0
IOLA            26  36  21  46 /  20   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    27  39  22  47 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$


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