Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 181155
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
555 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

MAIN ISSUE IS TIMING OF PRECIPITATION/PRECIPITATION TYPE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND TONIGHT. BASED ON SATELLITE/RADAR AND
OBSERVATIONS...BEST LIFT IS EXITING AREA AT THIS TIME. BASED ON
TIMING OF BACK EDGE OF COLDER CLOUD TOPS...CHANGE OVER TO TRACE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS WESTERN HALF OF FORECAST AREA
BETWEEN 1200-1800 UTC. APPEARS THAT TRACE PRECIPITATION MAY
LINGER GIVEN DEEPER MOISTURE/SLIGHT WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT INTO
THE AFTERNOON IN SOUTHEAST KS...BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT AND
TEMPERATURES HOVERING IN THE VICINITY OF FREEZING. BASED ON
SURROUNDING OFFICE CONSENSUS...ONLY EXTENDED WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY UNTIL 1500 UTC AND WILL GO FROM THERE. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF IT IS EXTENDED INTO THE AFTERNOON ALONG/EAST OF
I-35...ALTHOUGH OK BORDER COUNTIES MAY ESCAPE GIVEN VERY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION...WARM GROUND AND TEMPERATURES IN THE VICINITY OF
FREEZING.

TONIGHT:
HARD PRESSED TO SAY IF THERE WILL BE DRIZZLE OR FOG TONIGHT IN
SOUTHEAST KS...GIVEN NAM BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS LOOK
SUSPICIOUSLY LIKE THEY ARE OVERDONE BY MODEL SNOW COVER. GFS IS
NOT AS AGRESSIVE...BUT DOES SHOW LINGERING MOISTURE AND LIGHT
WINDS. WILL KEEP IT GOING FOR NOW GIVEN WEAK FLOW AND ABSENCE OF
GOOD INFLUX OF DRIER AIR.

FRI-SAT:
RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER ANTICIPATED...WITH WARMUP ON SAT AS WEAK
RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS. THE BIG QUESTION IS AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER.
BASED ON ISSUES WITH MODELS NOT ERODING SNOW QUICKLY ENOUGH AND
RESULTANT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE/THERMAL PROFILES...WOULD
NORMALLY THINK CLOUDS WERE OVERDONE. BUT GIVEN THE VERY WEAK FLOW
AND ABSENSE OF PUSH OF SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIR...MAY BE STUCK IN
FAIRLY EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS THROUGHOUT MOST OF THIS PERIOD. THIS
COULD CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY WITH SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

MODELS IN FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT. BASED ON FAIRLY GOOD INCREASE
IN 850MB MOISTURE ON SUN...OPTED TO KEEP LOW POPS GOING. WITH
APPROACHING FRONT...SHOULD SEE MORE CHANCES ON MON. WANTED TO NIX
CHANCES MON NIGHT WITH GFS/ECMWF BOTH SHOWING SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER
AIR MOVING THROUGH AND LIFT EXITING SOUTHEAST KS AT 0000 UTC
TUE...BUT CONSENSUS WAS TO KEEP IT. DOES APPEAR TO BE SLIM CHANCE
OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST KS LATER ON TUE AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
ROTATED AROUND LOW. OF NOTE...BOTH ECMWF/GFS SHOWING DEVELOPING
SYSTEM FOR NEXT THU-FRI AS ANOTHER LOW MOVES OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
US...STAY TUNED. -HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 555 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

CIGS POSE BY FAR THE GREATEST PROBLEM WITH MULTIPLE DECKS RANGING
FROM 300FT TO ~3,000FT. MOREOVER...THERE ARE NO TRENDS...BE IT
SPATIAL...LOCATION...IMPROVING...LOWERING OR OTHERWISE. STARTED BY
PLACING NEARLY ALL TERMINALS IN IFR/LIFR CIG STATUS THRU ~18Z WITH
A FEW AREAS PERHAPS REACHING "LOW-END" MVFR STATUS THIS AFTN. THE
ONLY CONSISTENT TREND HAS BEEN THE -SN WHICH CONTINUES TO MOVE
E/NE. AT ISSUANCE...THE -SN CONTINUED ROUGHLY ALONG & NE OF A LINE
FROM KCNK-KK78-KEMP-KCNU. WHERE THE -SN HAS BEEN OCCURRING VBSYS
HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT & VERY EARLY THIS
MORNING FROM 1 1/2 TO 2 1/2SM. UPDATES ARE LIKELY THROUGHOUT THE
DAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    37  31  39  31 /  30  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      35  28  39  30 /  40  10  10  10
NEWTON          34  29  38  31 /  40  10  10  10
ELDORADO        36  30  38  31 /  40  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   38  32  40  31 /  30  10  10  10
RUSSELL         35  25  40  28 /  30  10  10   0
GREAT BEND      34  23  38  28 /  30  10  10   0
SALINA          35  25  37  30 /  40  10  10   0
MCPHERSON       34  27  38  30 /  40  10  10   0
COFFEYVILLE     39  34  41  33 /  40  10  10  10
CHANUTE         37  31  38  33 /  50  10  10  10
IOLA            37  31  37  33 /  50  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    38  32  40  33 /  40  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR KSZ032-
033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$


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