Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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198
FXUS63 KICT 171819
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
119 PM CDT SUN MAY 17 2015

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT SUN MAY 17 2015

THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW STORM SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS
CENTRAL/WESTERN KANSAS AND HAS PUSHED STORMS OFF INTO MISSOURI
THIS MORNING. THE SURFACE LOW DRAPES FROM CENTRAL NEBRASKA
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST KANSAS.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT SUN MAY 17 2015

THE CURRENT SYSTEM HAS EXITED TO THE EAST...LEAVING KANSAS IN ITS
WAKE. MOIST LOW LEVEL CONDITIONS COULD CAUSE LOW CLOUDS AND SOME
PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING. EVEN THOUGH THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM HAS
KICKED THE STORMS OFF TO THE EAST...IT WILL TAKE THE NEXT WAVE
MOVING THROUGH TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY TO PULL THE COLD FRONT
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION. TODAYS TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WARM...HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS.

THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY REACHING
SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS CLOSE TO THE OKLAHOMA BORDER BY MONDAY
MORNING BEFORE STALLING. HOW FAR SOUTH IT MAKES WILL DETERMINE THE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. IF THE
BOUNDARY HANGS AROUND CLOSE TO THE BORDER...SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF KANSAS COULD SEE STRONG
STORMS...OTHERWISE IF IT PUSHES SOUTH INTO OKLAHOMA THEN EXPECT IT
TO BE DRY WITH THE STORMS IN OKLAHOMA. HIGHS WILL BE COOLER BEHIND
THE FRONT...ONLY REACHING INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S.

TUESDAY WILL BE MAINLY DRY FOR MOST OF THE AREA...BUT THE NEXT
MAIN UPPER LOW WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. WITH THE BOUNDARY OVER
OKLAHOMA...AMPLE MOISTURE TRANSPORT NORTHWARD OVER THE BOUNDARY
WILL PUT KANSAS...ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN KANSAS IN A PRIME AREA TO
SEE ANOTHER DOUSE OF RAIN OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. RAIN WILL MOVE EASTWARD DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY BEFORE
EXITING WEDNESDAY EVENING OVER MISSOURI.  CURRENT GUIDANCE
INDICATES A POSSIBILITY OF 0.75 TO 1.5 INCHES ESTIMATED AVERAGE
OVER THE AREA. EXPECT THIS TO CHANGE AS GUIDANCE EVOLVES...BUT
THIS IS A PERIOD TO WATCH DUE TO THE RECENT RAINFALL TOTALS SOME
AREAS HAVE RECEIVED. DO NOT EXPECT SEVERE WEATHER WITH THE MAIN
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY SOUTHWARD IN OKLAHOMA.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT SUN MAY 17 2015

AFTER THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER FLOW
PATTERN BEGINS TO BECOME MORE ZONAL AND EVENTUALLY AMPLIFY TO A
WEAK RIDGE/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR THE SURFACE HIGH TO SLOWLY MOVE OFF TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND WINDS TO BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY AND SOUTHERLY BY
SATURDAY. EXPECT COOLER TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOW 70S. BY EARLY SATURDAY THE PLAINS WILL BE
IN SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH THE NEXT DISTURBANCE
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE EARLY SATURDAY THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 118 PM CDT SUN MAY 17 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT ALL FORECAST LOCATIONS. THE GUSTY
SOUTH WINDS WILL DECREASE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. A WIND SHIFT TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION WILL OCCUR LATE
IN THE PERIOD AT ALL SPOTS EXCEPT FOR CNU.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    57  75  51  64 /   0  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      55  70  49  62 /   0   0  10  20
NEWTON          56  70  48  62 /   0   0  10  10
ELDORADO        58  74  50  64 /   0  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   59  78  53  67 /   0  10  10  10
RUSSELL         52  68  45  58 /   0   0  10  30
GREAT BEND      52  68  47  57 /   0   0  10  40
SALINA          54  68  47  62 /   0   0  10  10
MCPHERSON       54  69  48  62 /   0   0  10  20
COFFEYVILLE     63  80  53  71 /  10  20  10  10
CHANUTE         61  76  51  67 /  10  10  10  10
IOLA            61  75  50  66 /  10  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    62  79  52  69 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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