Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 202358
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
558 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE REMAINS A CONCERN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS DRAWN UP FROM CENTRAL/EASTERN OKLAHOMA. AS
FAR AS TIMING GOES, IT APPEARS THE ONSET OF DRIZZLE WILL BE 08-10Z
TIME FRAME ALONG/SOUTH OF KINGMAN-WICHITA-CHANUTE LINE. THE NORTHERN
EDGE OF THE DRIZZLE, AS IT MOVES NORTH DURING THIS TIME FRAME, WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE INTO AREAS WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURE WILL BE ANYWHERE
FROM 28 TO 31F. THIS WILL UNDOUBTEDLY CAUSE A VERY LIGHT GLAZE ON
EXPOSED SURFACES AND UNTREATED ROADS/SIDEWALKS. AS THE AREA OF LIGHT
DRIZZLE EXPANDS NORTHWARD TO A GREAT BEND-MCPHERSON-EMPORIA LINE,
THE 32F SURFACE LINE WILL ALSO SHIFT NORTH AS SURFACE WARM ADVECTION
BEGINS TO INCREASE. AFTER DAYBREAK (INDIRECT) INSOLATION WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO INCREASE TO THE MID 30S JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE
INCLUDING FARTHER NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
CALLS FOR PLAIN DRIZZLE ESPECIALLY AFTER 15Z EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS THE
I-70 CORRIDOR WHERE IT MAY REMAIN AT OR BELOW 32F THROUGH 16 OR EVEN
17Z. IT WILL BE DIFFICULT FOR ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE TO REACH AS FAR
NORTHWEST AS RUSSELL, BUT WE WILL ALSO INCLUDE SOME PATCHY FREEZING
DRIZZLE GIVEN REMAINING PLACEMENT UNCERTAINTIES. FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE DAY, AREAS OF DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE PRIMARILY EAST OF KINGMAN
TO SALINA LINE, AND THE DRIZZLE/LOW STRATUS WILL RESULT IN
TEMPERATURES ONLY SLOWLY RISING TO A HIGH OF UPPER 30S FOR MUCH OF
CENTRAL KANSAS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE SOUTHEAST KANSAS WHERE TEMPS
WILL LIKELY RISE TO THE MID TO UPPER 40S CLOSER TO THE SURFACE WARM
SECTOR. SOME SHOWERS WERE ADDED TO THE GRIDS IN ADDITION TO THE
DRIZZLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS AS HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE
SUGGESTING SOME CONVECTIVE QPF DEVELOPING IN THE GREATEST ZONE OF
LOW LEVEL MOIST ADVECTION FRIDAY.

UMSCHEID

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

THE LOW LEVEL MOIST PLUME WILL REMAIN ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS
THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE OZARKS. A DEFORMATION ZONE AT 700MB IS SUGGESTED TO CLIP
SOUTHEAST KANSAS, AND THIS IS WHERE POPS WILL REMAIN HIGHEST
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE WARMING LOWER TROPOSPHERE WILL
RESULT IN ALL PRECIPITATION BEING IN THE FORM OF RAIN. A FAIRLY
STRONG FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS IN
THE WAKE OF THIS STORM SYSTEM AT ABOUT 25 TO 30 MPH DURING THE DAY.
THE AIRMASS BEHIND THIS WAVE WILL NOT BE OF ARCTIC ORIGIN, HOWEVER,
SO TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE FAIRLY
SEASONAL FOR LATE NOVEMBER.

UMSCHEID

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 558 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

CIGS & VSBYS WILL BOTH QUICKLY DETERIORATE LATE TONIGHT/VERY EARLY
FRI MORNING WITH 500-800FT CIGS & 2-3SM VSBYS LIKELY OVER ALL OF
SC & SE KS ~08Z & CNTRL KS ~12Z. THE "WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY" FOR
-FZDZ OVER KICT & KHUT APPEARS NARROW (~12Z-15Z) AS TEMPERATURES
WILL HOVER ~32F DURING THIS PERIOD & AS SUCH HAVE NARROWED -FZDZ
TO THIS PERIOD. ALL AREAS TO REMAIN SHROUDED IN IFR STRATUS & FOG
THROUGH FRI NGT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    31  41  38  55 /  30  30  20  40
HUTCHINSON      28  38  36  54 /  20  20  10  20
NEWTON          29  40  37  52 /  30  30  20  30
ELDORADO        31  41  39  55 /  30  30  30  40
WINFIELD-KWLD   33  45  42  56 /  30  30  30  50
RUSSELL         26  42  31  53 /  10  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      26  42  32  54 /  10  10  10  10
SALINA          26  40  34  53 /  20  20  10  20
MCPHERSON       28  40  35  53 /  20  20  10  20
COFFEYVILLE     34  51  46  57 /  40  40  40  60
CHANUTE         31  46  44  55 /  40  40  40  60
IOLA            30  44  43  54 /  40  40  40  60
PARSONS-KPPF    33  49  45  56 /  40  40  40  60

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$


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