Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 181726
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1226 PM CDT Sun Jun 18 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 311 AM CDT Sun Jun 18 2017

Today-tonight:
Will linger rain showers/thunderstorm into the morning when combo
of upper trough/diffluence and drier air finally shuts down
precipitation. Clouds may linger near OK border in Southeast KS
well into the afternoon. Light winds tonight will allow
temperatures to drop to around 60 at most locations. Some influx
of 700MB moisture/warm air advection tonight, so some clouds may
keep temperatures up a degree or few more than otherwise would be
expected given surface ridge location.

Monday-Tuesday:
Forecast a bit more challenging that it appears at first glance.
Multiple periods of 700MB warm air advection/moisture advection
starting on Monday during the day, and again on starting midday
Tuesday and continuing through Tuesday night. Have small pops in
for Tuesday night which seems reasonable, but may need to expand a
bit east 06-12 UTC Wednesday. This would be in the
climatologically favored area/time of day for convection. Maxes
will be a tough call between potentially broken middle level
clouds downslope flow. Initialization grids appear to be decent
middle of the road forecast. -Howerton

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 311 AM CDT Sun Jun 18 2017

Main concern is that there could be precipitation lingering into
the daylight hours Wednesday morning, especially in Southeast KS.
Winds may not be strong enough Wednesday afternoon either,
depending on exactly how quickly/deeply lee troughing becomes
established and extent of clouds in the afternoon. Convection
becomes more likely during the period as south flow allow more low
level moisture to return. Considerable differences evident in
models with respect to the location of the front. This will
likely be modulated by amount/extent of convection Thursday
night. Uncertainty spills into Saturday with timing/location of
front and track of low in the gulf of mexico. -Howerton

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1217 PM CDT Sun Jun 18 2017

Aviation concerns are expected to be minimal through the next 24
hours.

Shortwave trough is currently swinging across the Mississippi
Valley and heading into the Great Lakes region. The cold front
that swept through last night now stretches from northern AR into
central TX with much cooler and drier air spilling south across
the Plains. Confidence is high that VFR conditions will remain in
place today and tonight as winds come around to the south and
southwest by Mon morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    82  61  86  65 /  10   0   0   0
Hutchinson      83  59  86  63 /  10   0   0   0
Newton          81  60  84  64 /  20   0   0   0
ElDorado        80  59  83  64 /  20   0   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   81  60  85  64 /  20   0   0   0
Russell         83  59  87  63 /  10  10  10   0
Great Bend      83  59  86  63 /  10  10  10   0
Salina          84  59  87  63 /  10   0   0   0
McPherson       83  59  86  63 /  10   0  10   0
Coffeyville     80  60  86  63 /  40   0   0   0
Chanute         81  59  85  63 /  40   0   0   0
Iola            81  59  85  62 /  30   0   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    80  59  86  63 /  40   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PJH
LONG TERM...PJH
AVIATION...RBL



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