Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 190449
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1149 PM CDT THU AUG 18 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 257 PM CDT Thu Aug 18 2016

70 degree dewpoints have returned to southern KS with some sct-
bkn low clouds accompanying the moisture surge. Water vapor
imagery also shows a weak upper impulse tracking slowly over
western KS/far east CO. Current thinking is that the better precip
chances will stay southeast of the forecast area overnight where
the subtropical moisture plume will be situated.

Strong cold front still expected to surge through the region Fri
afternoon/Fri night. This front currently stretches from central
SD into WY with mid-low 70 degree air occupying ND and SD with
this air progressing south tonight through Fri. By 18z Fri the
cold front will stretch from south central Nebraska into SW KS
with this feature along the KS Turnpike by 06z Sat, finally
exiting se KS Sat morning.

Storms are expected along this front by Fri afternoon from central
Nebraska into west-central KS with this activity pushing southeast
overnight. Looks like the best chance for a more widespread MCS
will be over central/eastern Nebraska and northeast KS which will
be closer to the better upper dynamics. Across our area, looking
for a slow moving line of storms late Fri afternoon through Fri
night. Deep layer shear isn`t that great but there should be
around 2,000-3,000J/kg of CAPE to work with. In addition, PW
values will be back to around or just over 2 inches. So feel that
main threats will be straight-line winds and high rainfall rates
that may lead to flooding. While very large hail doesn`t look
likely, can`t rule out a storm getting tall enough for some
quarters. By 15z Sat, overnight convection will have pushed out of
southeast KS.

The coolest air since spring will follow behind the front, with
highs in the mid-upper 70s for most areas on Sat with lows in the
50s for Sun morning. Should see temps slowly moderate on Sun back
into the low 80s. Normal highs for this time of year are around 90
degrees.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 257 PM CDT Thu Aug 18 2016

There is good model agreement that a shortwave will track across
Alberta/northern Rockies Mon and into Saskatchewan/northern Plains
by Tue. At the same time, a southern stream impulse will move out
of the four corners region and into the central/southern plains by
Tue. This feature will return unsettled weather back into the
region starting Tue and continuing through at least Wed night. As
the shortwave departs, some cooler air will again spill into the
area toward the end of the week into the weekend

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1141 PM CDT Thu Aug 18 2016

Main Aviation Hazards: Low stratus late tonight into early Friday
morning, and thunderstorm potential Friday.

Light southerly boundary layer flow will result in low-level
moisture advection northward into eastern Kansas overnight into
Friday. Latest surface dewpoint depressions and a consensus of
short-term model data suggests low MVFR/IFR ceilings are most
likely, roughly along/east of the Kansas Turnpike late tonight
into early Friday morning. Confidence in IFR ceilings is highest
at CNU.

A cold front will slice southward into central Kansas Friday
afternoon, into a very moist and unstable environment with some
upper support. Most central Kansas terminals will stand a decent
chance for storm development near the front by mid-late afternoon.
Storm coverage is then expected to increase Friday evening, as
the front moves into south-central and southeast Kansas. Localized
strong-severe wind gusts and temporarily restricted visibilities
from heavy rainfall rates are possible at affected terminals.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    71  92  65  78 /  10  30  70  10
Hutchinson      70  91  63  77 /   0  40  70  10
Newton          70  91  64  78 /  10  30  80  10
ElDorado        70  91  65  78 /  10  30  70  10
Winfield-KWLD   71  91  66  80 /  10  30  70  20
Russell         68  86  58  76 /  10  60  70  10
Great Bend      68  89  59  76 /   0  60  70  10
Salina          70  90  62  77 /  10  50  80  10
McPherson       70  91  63  77 /   0  40  80  10
Coffeyville     69  87  69  80 /  20  20  70  30
Chanute         70  87  68  78 /  10  20  70  30
Iola            70  87  68  77 /  10  20  70  30
Parsons-KPPF    70  87  68  80 /  10  20  70  30

&&

.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RBL
LONG TERM...RBL
AVIATION...JMC



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