Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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747
FXUS63 KICT 270437
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1137 PM CDT Wed Apr 26 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 332 PM CDT Wed Apr 26 2017

Tonight:
Anticipate showers will exit area/dissipate by 00 UTC. Main issue
is the frost potential across Central KS. Appears to be a decent
window of opportunity, especially along/north of I-70. Main
concern is timing of clouds that will roll in from the west just
about daybreak in the far west sections. Have hoisted frost
advisory for the three northern counties for now, where conditions
appear most favorable.

Thursday:
Influx of low/mid level moisture will bring another chance of
rain to mainly Central KS. Given propensity of models to break out
precipitation too fast, trended onset a bit slower and concerned
that it may not have been slow enough. Chances should ramp up
fairly quickly around 0000 UTC.

Friday-Saturday:
Focus then shifts to the upper low that will traverse across
Eastern OK and into MO over the weekend. Surface front will sag
into the area during the day Friday before stalling Friday night
south of the area. The key issue is the track/depth of the upper
low which will impact where best overrunning and resultant heavy
rain will occur. Good moisture will be in place in the warm
sector, the only question is how much/how far west the heavy rain
will occur. At this point, appears that Southeast KS, roughly
east of Highway 75, could get 1-3 inches of rain. Given moist
conditions, this could lead to both river and areal flooding
issues over the weekend. However if the track ends up slightly
farther east, then of course impacts would be minimal. If track
does not significantly change, suspect a flood watch will be
hoisted on Thursday. Influx of cold air could lead to some
flurries mixing in with the light rain west of highway 14 in
Central KS Saturday night. -Howerton

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 332 PM CDT Wed Apr 26 2017

Anticipate that light precipitation will linger on Sunday, again
with the potential for some flurries to mix with the light rain
Sunday morning in Central KS west of Highway 14. Light rain
showers will probably linger for much of Sunday on the back side
of the low in the east, however clearing is expected to slowly
advance from west to east during the day. Temperatures moderate
and conditions dry a bit at the start of the work week, but
another shortwave will bring renewed precipitation chances by
midweek. Not optimistic about rain chances on Tuesday. -Howerton

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1137 PM CDT Wed Apr 26 2017

Light and variable winds overnight will become south to southeast
Thursday morning as the surface ridge moves east of the area. An
increasing southeast wind is expected by Thursday afternoon as a
lee side cyclone deepens across the central High Plains. Rather
impressive lift associated with an upper trof moving into the area
will result in a quick increase in mid/high clouds by midday with
the bases/ceilings lowering by evening to MVFR stratocu or stratus
over central Kansas. Modestly high confidence for prevailing SHRA
or VCSH at most terminals by the latter portion of the forecast
valid period.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    39  64  48  68 /   0  20  60  10
Hutchinson      36  63  46  65 /   0  30  60  10
Newton          37  63  47  64 /   0  20  60  10
ElDorado        38  63  48  68 /   0  20  60  10
Winfield-KWLD   40  65  49  70 /   0  20  60  10
Russell         35  62  44  59 /   0  40  70  20
Great Bend      36  63  43  62 /   0  40  60  20
Salina          36  62  46  61 /   0  30  60  20
McPherson       37  62  46  62 /   0  30  60  10
Coffeyville     40  66  52  72 /  10  10  60  20
Chanute         39  64  50  70 /  10  10  60  10
Iola            39  63  50  69 /  10  10  60  20
Parsons-KPPF    39  65  51  71 /  10  10  60  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Thursday for KSZ032-033-049.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PJH
LONG TERM...PJH
AVIATION...KED



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