Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 260001
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
601 PM CST THU DEC 25 2014

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 PM CST THU DEC 25 2014

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE REMAINS WITH PRECIP TYPE AND AMOUNTS
FRIDAY THRU EARLY SATURDAY. AT EARLY AFTERNOON...STOUT SOUTH
WINDS CONTINUED TO RUN IN THE ADVISORY REALM IN THE OUTLOOKED
AREA WITH 23Z EXPIRATION LOOKING REASONABLE. THE WESTERN CONUS
UPPER TROF WILL CONTINUE TO DIG A BIT MORE THROUGH THE EVENING
BECOMING A CLOSED LOW BRIEFLY OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. THIS FEATURE WILL THEN OPEN UP AND SHEAR EASTWARD
ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A ROUND OF LIGHT
MIXED/WINTRY PRECIP. THE SPIRIT OF THE GOING FORECAST LOOKS
REASONABLE WITH ONLY MINOR TWEAKS DONE. SHALLOW MOISTURE RETURN
AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL OCCUR ACROSS
SOUTHEAST KANSAS ON FRIDAY WHERE PATCHY DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE.
MEANWHILE...COLD ADVECTION AND MOISTENING LOW LEVELS JUST BEHIND
THE FRONT OVER CENTRAL KANSAS MAY RESULT IN SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE.
CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL INCREASE LATER
FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT AS BETTER...ALBEIT
MODEST...LIFT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE ASSOCIATED UPPER
TROF. THERMAL PROFILES WILL SUPPORT MAINLY SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL
KANSAS WITH MIXED PHASE TO SNOW ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
SNOW ACCUMS CONTINUE TO LOOK RELATIVELY LIGHT...GENERALLY AN
INCH OR SO...MAINLY ALONG/WEST OF THE TURNPIKE. SOUTHEAST KANSAS
WILL SEE A BRIEF CHANGEOVER EARLY SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE PRECIP
EXITS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

DARMOFAL

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 PM CST THU DEC 25 2014

CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH ON MUCH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST.
A SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROF WITHIN THE MEAN LONGWAVE WILL DIVE
SOUTH ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WHERE A CLOSED LOW IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY WEDNESDAY. PROGRESSIVELY COLD ARCTIC
AIR WILL OCCUPY THE REGION AT LEAST INTO MID-WEEK. WHILE A
BOUT OR TWO OF LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES MAY ACCOMPANY THE MUCH
COLDER AIR...THE COLD TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN THE HIGHER
WEATHER IMPACT OVER ANY LIGHT SNOWFALL.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 548 PM CST THU DEC 25 2014

SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BE MAIN CONCERN FOR TAFS. LEADING
EDGE OF WIND SHIFT IS IN THE VICINITY OF KHYS NOW...AND WILL
SLOWLY PROGRESS SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. MVFR
CEILINGS WILL LIKELY OVERSPREAD KRSL/KSLN/KHUT A COUPLE HOURS
AFTER INITIAL WIND SHIFT. KCNU WILL SEE MVFR CEILINGS ARRIVE
AROUND 0900 UTC AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTH
IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. -HOWERTON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    34  46  25  36 /  10  20  60  10
HUTCHINSON      31  39  21  33 /  10  20  60  10
NEWTON          32  42  24  33 /  10  20  60  10
ELDORADO        35  48  26  35 /  10  20  60  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   36  51  27  36 /  10  20  60  20
RUSSELL         25  31  17  30 /  10  50  60   0
GREAT BEND      27  32  18  31 /  10  40  60   0
SALINA          29  36  20  32 /  10  30  60  10
MCPHERSON       30  38  21  32 /  10  30  60  10
COFFEYVILLE     41  54  31  38 /  10  30  60  30
CHANUTE         39  51  29  36 /  10  30  60  30
IOLA            39  50  28  36 /  10  30  60  30
PARSONS-KPPF    40  53  31  37 /  10  30  60  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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