Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 110455
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1155 PM CDT THU APR 10 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT THU APR 10 2014

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TONIGHT WITH MOST OF THE ENERGY REMAINING NORTH OF THE
CWA...ALTHOUGH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS
OVERNIGHT. A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP SATURDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS AS A BIT MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY EXISTS HOWEVER THESE ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG
OR SEVERE. THE FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO SATURDAY AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. ALTHOUGH WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRY
LINE AND WARM AIR ALOFT MAY INHIBIT STORM CHANCES...PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY EXISTS AS ML CAPE VALUES APPROACH 2500 J/KG. HAVE
THEREFORE INTRODUCED 20 PERCENT CHANCE POPS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
KANSAS CLOSEST TO THE DRY LINE AND WHERE SOME COOLING ALOFT MAY
ALLOW FOR DEVELOPMENT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY WARM WITH AREAS
REACHING THE UPPER 70S FOR FRIDAY AND LOW 80S ON SATURDAY. STORM
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT SATURDAY AND DURING THE
DAY ON SUNDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND TRANSLATES
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. LINGERING SHOWERS MAY MIX WITH SNOW
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING BUT NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT COULD APPROACH
ADVISORY CRITERIA AS A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AND COLD ADVECTION
INVADES THE REGION. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL DECREASE THROUGHOUT
THE DAY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS OCCURRING IN THE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS.

SGS

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT THU APR 10 2014

FOR THE EXTENDED...TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR MONDAY WITH
LOWS TUESDAY MORNING NEAR OR JUST AT FREEZING. TEMPERATURES WILL
CLIMB BACK TO NORMAL FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY. SOME
LINGERING PRECIPITATION MAY REMAIN OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS FOR MONDAY
WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ARRIVING THURSDAY AS A
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING AND
INTENSITY AS THE GFS INDICATES A FAIRLY POTENT CLOSED SYSTEM AND
NEGATIVE TILT...COMPARED WITH THE ECMWF INDICATING MORE OF AN OPEN
WAVE.

SGS

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CDT THU APR 10 2014

VERY WEAK/DIFFUSE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER ACROSS NRN MO THRU FRI
AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD CAUSE SFC WINDS TO SHIFT FROM N/NE TO SE AS THE
NIGHT PROGRESSES WITH SPEEDS <=10KTS. ALL AREAS TO REMAIN VFR WITH
CLOUDINESS PREDOMINANTLY 10,000 TO 15,000FT ALTOSTRATUS/ALTOCU.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT THU APR 10 2014

VERY HIGH GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER WILL RETURN TO THE AREA FOR
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE AHEAD
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    48  77  53  80 /  10   0  10  10
HUTCHINSON      46  76  51  80 /  10   0  10  10
NEWTON          46  76  52  78 /  10  10  10  10
ELDORADO        48  76  54  79 /  10  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   50  77  56  80 /  10  10  10  10
RUSSELL         43  76  52  81 /  10  10  10  20
GREAT BEND      44  76  52  81 /  10  10  10  20
SALINA          45  76  51  80 /  10  10  10  20
MCPHERSON       45  76  51  79 /  10  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     51  76  56  79 /  10  20  10  10
CHANUTE         48  75  55  78 /  10  20  10  10
IOLA            47  74  55  78 /   0  20  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    50  75  56  79 /  10  20  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

ES






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