Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 200813
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
313 AM CDT Thu Jul 20 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday Night)
Issued at 313 AM CDT Thu Jul 20 2017

Highlight:
Excessive Heat Warning remains in effect for all areas until 8 PM
Sat.

STRONG upper high that remains sprawled across the southern two
thirds of the U.S. will keep the furnace turned up to dangerous
levels. The Excessive Heat Warning will remain intact through Sat
evening. On Sat an intense cyclone centered over Northern Ontario
will swing a compact mid-upper shortwave from extreme south-
central Canada that will reach Lake Superior late Sat night. This
would send a "lukecold" front almost due south that may still
reach central KS Sat afternoon. The south/southeast progress of
the front will be watched closely as this would certainly have
temperature ramifications Sat afternoon. With the mid-level short-
wave`s greatest kick occurring over the northern plains the front
should decelerate & maybe even stall as it psuhes further into
central KS. Would not be surprised if Sat`s highs end up 2-3F
above what CONSALL has assigned across southern KS. With the
nearly east/west oriented front bisecting KS, thunderstorms are
still anticipated Sat night with locally heavy rains possible.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 313 AM CDT Thu Jul 20 2017

Sunday & Sunday Night:
With the front setting up camp close to the KS/OK border scattered
thunderstorms would be expected across southern KS Sun & Sun night.

Mon-Wed:
The front gradually weakens on Mon but with the boundary expected
to be positioned close to the KS/OK border the furnace would be
turned down about 5 degrees across KICT Country. The "cooldown"
may be short-lived as a rapidly strengthening surface trough
oriented in north/south manner along the Front Range would quickly
allow southerly flow to return to the KS neighborhood. This would
send highs back into the mid 90s. The increasing moisture migrating
from OK may be sufficient to `spark` thunderstorms Tue afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1042 PM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017

A persistence forecast with VFR conditions is planned for the 06Z
TAFS. A lee trough will maintain a southerly wind, with diurnal
gusts in the afternoon/early evening hours, and decoupling toward
sunset. Marginal low-level wind shear is possible late tonight in
central Kansas with southwesterly winds around 40 knots at the top
of the low-level inversion around 1,500 ft agl. Mostly clear skies
should prevail through Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT   102  78 102  77 /   0   0   0   0
Hutchinson     103  78 103  77 /   0   0   0   0
Newton         102  78 101  77 /   0   0   0   0
ElDorado        99  78  99  76 /   0   0   0   0
Winfield-KWLD  100  78 100  77 /   0   0   0   0
Russell        105  77 105  76 /   0   0   0   0
Great Bend     103  77 104  75 /   0   0   0   0
Salina         107  80 106  79 /   0   0   0   0
McPherson      103  78 103  77 /   0   0   0   0
Coffeyville     96  76  98  76 /   0   0   0   0
Chanute         97  76  98  76 /   0   0   0   0
Iola            97  75  98  76 /   0   0   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    96  76  98  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Saturday for KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EPS
LONG TERM...EPS
AVIATION...JMC


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