Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 160800
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
300 AM CDT Sat Sep 16 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 213 AM CDT Sat Sep 16 2017

The challenge today will be the extend of cloud cover and the
timing of the incoming front. Convection in parts of Oklahoma will
slowly move to the north into the CWA. Additionally, some early
morning showers have developed across part of the CWA. Raised pops
to compensate. This afternoon and evening the moisture transport
and shear will pick up as the cold front approaches. Chances for
showers and thunderstorms, some of them severe will increase as
well. Severe threat will decrease some after sunset but general
thunderstorms will still be likely through the evening and
overnight period.

Sunday the cold front will slow down and stall along the Missouri
and Oklahoma boarder. This will keep the moisture transport in
the region with good forcing along the front will keep the showers
and thunderstorms in the forecast. While severe weather is not
expected Sunday, some of the storms could have some heavy rain.
Monday will also be active as the front will still be in the
region and will start to move back to the north. Shear and
instability will improve and bring back the chance for some
isolates severe thunderstorms.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 213 AM CDT Sat Sep 16 2017

Long term remains challenging. ECMWF continues to keep things dry
while the GFS family of models remains aggressive with shower and
storm activity. The difference between the two models appears to
be centered around the track of Hurricane Norma in the Eastern
Pacific. The National Hurricane Center`s track of Norma continues
to pull the system into Mexico and then north into the Central
and Southern Plains. This track is in line with the GFS family of
models. Considering both model families have been consistent, and
the GFS is trending the tropical moisture down some, trimmed the
pops for the middle of next week to compensate. Confidence in the
is low due to the disagreement between the models at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1132 PM CDT Fri Sep 15 2017

Aviation concerns will be wind shear tonight along with storm
chances along cold front Sat.

A few storms can`t be ruled out overnight as most of the area
stays in a broad area of mid level theta-e advection with minimal
capping above 850mb. There are some model solutions that try and
bring in more widespread activity after sunrise, but confidence in
this panning out is low. Meanwhile, have much higher confidence in
storms developing along a strong cold front as it slowly pushes
south on Sat. Currently expecting this front to move through KRSL
around 20z and KICT around 01z Sun. Should see at least a few
storms along the front and with plenty of instability some severe
storms can`t be ruled out.

Just like last night, winds just off the surface will be strong
with speeds around 40kts expected by around 2,000ft. This shear
should linger until around sunrise.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    91  64  82  66 /  30  40  30  40
Hutchinson      92  60  80  64 /  40  40  30  40
Newton          90  61  79  65 /  40  40  30  40
ElDorado        90  64  81  65 /  20  40  40  40
Winfield-KWLD   91  66  83  66 /  20  40  30  40
Russell         85  56  77  62 /  10  30  30  50
Great Bend      87  57  78  63 /  10  30  30  40
Salina          92  59  79  65 /  40  40  30  50
McPherson       91  59  79  63 /  40  40  30  50
Coffeyville     90  68  85  67 /  10  40  30  40
Chanute         88  66  82  66 /  10  30  40  40
Iola            87  66  81  65 /  10  40  40  50
Parsons-KPPF    90  68  84  67 /  10  30  30  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ELM
LONG TERM...ELM
AVIATION...RBL



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