Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 230726
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
226 AM CDT Tue May 23 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 224 AM CDT Tue May 23 2017

A shortwave trough over the Upper Mississippi Valley area early this
morning is progged to dig south-southeast into the Middle
Mississippi Valley area today.  The mid level cold pool will pivot
south across the Central Plains states with enough instability for
scattered afternoon showers and isolated non-severe storms.

Wed-Thu...a mid/upper ridge over the PACNW this morning is progged
to translate eastward across the Central Plains on Wed-Thu bringing
dry weather conditions and moderating temperatures. After another
day with below normal temperatures on Wed, highs on Thu will climb
into the upper 70s/around 80 for most locations. Maintained pops
across Central KS Thu evening as left exit region of H25 jet
approaches late in the period. We may see the cap weaken in the
vicinity of the dry line/cold front across Central KS and with
MLCAPE around 1900 J/KG and 0-6km bulk shear of 40-50 kt, there may
be a brief window for a severe storm or two across portions of
Central KS Thu evening.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 224 AM CDT Tue May 23 2017

Another round of strong and severe storms may arrive on
Friday across Southern KS within a moist easterly upslope flow
regime. A couple of additional shortwave troughs are progged to
impact the area friday night through at least Sunday bringing
additional chances for deep moist convection. Unsettled weather may
linger into early next week with near or below normal temperatures
prevailing through the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 649 PM CDT Mon May 22 2017

A weak impulse in the west-NW flow has led to scattered showers
moving east across the Flint Hills, South Central KS and Southeast
Kansas.  Even with the showers expect cigs to remain VFR as this
area of showers shifts east.

Another round of showers may drop southeast in the NW flow as a
stronger area of mid level lift in Neb makes its way south this
evening and overnight, as a cold front pushes south. Passage of the
cold front will lead to some gusty NW winds early Tue into Tue
afternoon.

Post frontal wraparound cyclonic flow during the day on Tue may lead
to renewed diurnally driven showers for most of the area for Tue
afternoon, but cigs associated with the showers will stay VFR.

Ketcham


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    66  46  68  49 /  20   0   0   0
Hutchinson      64  44  68  48 /  30   0   0   0
Newton          65  44  66  47 /  30   0   0   0
ElDorado        66  45  66  48 /  20  10   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   67  47  68  49 /  20   0   0   0
Russell         64  42  68  48 /  40  10   0   0
Great Bend      64  43  68  49 /  30  10   0   0
Salina          64  44  68  48 /  30  10   0   0
McPherson       65  43  67  47 /  30  10   0   0
Coffeyville     67  45  67  46 /  30  10  10   0
Chanute         67  47  66  46 /  30  10  10   0
Iola            66  47  65  46 /  30  10  10   0
Parsons-KPPF    67  47  66  46 /  30  10  10   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MWM
LONG TERM...MWM
AVIATION...Ketcham


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