Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 271739
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1239 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

THE MID/UPPER TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR THE RECENT ACTIVE WEATHER IS
PROGGED TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
STATES TODAY. MAINTAINED MORNING POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
KS WHERE STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES WILL LINGER EARLY IN THE PERIOD
UNDER THE MID/UPPER TROUGH. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO MORE
SEASONABLE VALUES WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOW 70S.

A MID/UPPER RIDGE WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS ON THURSDAY WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS BECOMING EAST AS LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER THE GREAT BASIN AREA. ANOTHER
SEASONABLY MILD DAY IS ANTICIPATED WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S
WITH DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS.

BY FRIDAY...DIFFLUENT MID/UPPER FLOW WILL DEVELOP DOWNSTREAM
ACROSS THE AREA AS THE MID/UPPER TROUGH LIFTS OVER THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR DEEP MOIST
CONVECTION TO THE REGION. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS AS THE TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED BUT THERE
REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH MUCH
OF THE PERIOD AS A SLOW MOVING MID/UPPER TROUGH MEANDERS OVER THE
ROCKIES AND IS PROGGED TO SHEAR EASTWARD THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MAINTAINED LOW POPS AND SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 60S THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD ADVECTION ON THE BACK SIDE OF LOW PRESSURE
DEPARTING OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA WILL SUPPORT HIGH MVFR TO LOW VFR
CIGS THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON OR SO...GRADUALLY BECOMING SCT BY MID-
LATE AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AT
SLN...WITH A BRIEF ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE AT
CNU...AS THE BASE OF THE UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVES OVERHEAD. THREAT
TOO MINIMAL TO INCLUDE VCSH/VCTS IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

RECENT RAIN AND GREEN FUELS WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN THIS
WEEK WILL RESULT IN MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    70  47  71  52 /  10   0   0  50
HUTCHINSON      67  43  69  50 /  10   0   0  50
NEWTON          66  45  69  50 /  10   0   0  40
ELDORADO        68  47  71  51 /  10  10   0  40
WINFIELD-KWLD   72  47  73  54 /  10   0   0  50
RUSSELL         60  40  65  46 /  20   0   0  50
GREAT BEND      64  40  66  47 /  20   0  10  60
SALINA          64  44  68  48 /  20  10   0  40
MCPHERSON       66  43  69  49 /  10   0   0  40
COFFEYVILLE     75  51  75  55 /  20  10   0  20
CHANUTE         72  49  73  53 /  20  10   0  20
IOLA            71  49  73  53 /  20  10   0  20
PARSONS-KPPF    74  50  74  54 /  20  10   0  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MWM
LONG TERM...MWM
AVIATION...ADK
FIRE WEATHER...MWM



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