Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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901
FXUS63 KICT 170825
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
325 AM CDT SUN MAY 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT SUN MAY 17 2015

THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW STORM SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS
CENTRAL/WESTERN KANSAS AND HAS PUSHED STORMS OFF INTO MISSOURI
THIS MORNING. THE SURFACE LOW DRAPES FROM CENTRAL NEBRASKA
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST KANSAS.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT SUN MAY 17 2015

THE CURRENT SYSTEM HAS EXITED TO THE EAST...LEAVING KANSAS IN ITS
WAKE. MOIST LOW LEVEL CONDITIONS COULD CAUSE LOW CLOUDS AND SOME
PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING. EVEN THOUGH THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM HAS
KICKED THE STORMS OFF TO THE EAST...IT WILL TAKE THE NEXT WAVE
MOVING THROUGH TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY TO PULL THE COLD FRONT
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION. TODAYS TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WARM...HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS.

THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY REACHING
SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS CLOSE TO THE OKLAHOMA BORDER BY MONDAY
MORNING BEFORE STALLING. HOW FAR SOUTH IT MAKES WILL DETERMINE THE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. IF THE
BOUNDARY HANGS AROUND CLOSE TO THE BORDER...SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF KANSAS COULD SEE STRONG
STORMS...OTHERWISE IF IT PUSHES SOUTH INTO OKLAHOMA THEN EXPECT IT
TO BE DRY WITH THE STORMS IN OKLAHOMA. HIGHS WILL BE COOLER BEHIND
THE FRONT...ONLY REACHING INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S.

TUESDAY WILL BE MAINLY DRY FOR MOST OF THE AREA...BUT THE NEXT
MAIN UPPER LOW WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. WITH THE BOUNDARY OVER
OKLAHOMA...AMPLE MOISTURE TRANSPORT NORTHWARD OVER THE BOUNDARY
WILL PUT KANSAS...ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN KANSAS IN A PRIME AREA TO
SEE ANOTHER DOUSE OF RAIN OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. RAIN WILL MOVE EASTWARD DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY BEFORE
EXITING WEDNESDAY EVENING OVER MISSOURI.  CURRENT GUIDANCE
INDICATES A POSSIBILITY OF 0.75 TO 1.5 INCHES ESTIMATED AVERAGE
OVER THE AREA. EXPECT THIS TO CHANGE AS GUIDANCE EVOLVES...BUT
THIS IS A PERIOD TO WATCH DUE TO THE RECENT RAINFALL TOTALS SOME
AREAS HAVE RECEIVED. DO NOT EXPECT SEVERE WEATHER WITH THE MAIN
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY SOUTHWARD IN OKLAHOMA.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT SUN MAY 17 2015

AFTER THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER FLOW
PATTERN BEGINS TO BECOME MORE ZONAL AND EVENTUALLY AMPLIFY TO A
WEAK RIDGE/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR THE SURFACE HIGH TO SLOWLY MOVE OFF TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND WINDS TO BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY AND SOUTHERLY BY
SATURDAY. EXPECT COOLER TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOW 70S. BY EARLY SATURDAY THE PLAINS WILL BE
IN SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH THE NEXT DISTURBANCE
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE EARLY SATURDAY THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015

MESOSCALE INFLUENCES IN THE WAKE OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE WILL
RESULT IN A CHAOTIC WIND FORECAST FOR THE FIRST COUPLE HOURS AT
THE START OF THE FORECAST VALID PERIOD. THE UPPER TROF ACROSS
EASTERN KANSAS WILL LIFT NORTH INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST ON
SUNDAY WITH THE SURFACE DRY-LINE/PACIFIC FRONT MOVING EAST
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. SOME PATCHY MVFR CIGS MAY
DEVELOP EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WITH
DRIER AIR AND VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE
REST OF THE DAY.

KED


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    82  58  76  52 /   0   0  10  10
HUTCHINSON      82  56  73  50 /   0   0  10  10
NEWTON          80  57  72  49 /   0   0  10  10
ELDORADO        81  58  76  51 /  10   0  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   83  59  80  53 /  10   0  20  20
RUSSELL         81  53  70  47 /   0   0  10  10
GREAT BEND      81  53  70  48 /   0   0  10  10
SALINA          82  55  70  48 /   0   0  10  10
MCPHERSON       81  55  71  49 /   0   0  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     85  63  82  54 /  10  10  20  20
CHANUTE         84  61  78  52 /  10  10  10  10
IOLA            83  61  77  51 /  10  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    85  62  81  53 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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