Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 250538
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1138 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 329 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

A CLEAR DAY ACROSS KANSAS IN COMBINATION WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SOME
DOWNSLOPE WINDS HAVE HELPED TEMPERATURES SOAR INTO THE 40S AND LOW
50S ACROSS THE AREA. THE TEMPS HAVE HELPED TO MELT THE SNOW ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

THIS FIRST PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. A SECONDARY WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT KANSAS...BUT FURTHER SOUTH
ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS NEBRASKA DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY...IT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE STATE WHICH WILL HAMPER ITS IMPACT ON THE FORECAST
AREA. CURRENT GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP AND TRACK ACROSS NORTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHWARD IN TO
SOUTHWEST MISSOURI. THIS COULD BRING SOME PRECIPITATION INTO EAST
CENTRAL KANSAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING...BUT FEEL THIS
MAY BE THE BEST CHANCES. THAT BEING SAID...CANNOT RULE OUT THE
CHANCES ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS EARLIER IN THE EVENT DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. EARLY IN THE EVENT ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS WILL START AS A MIX BEFORE CHANGING OVER
TO SNOW. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION...MAYBE A
FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH IN CENTRAL KANSAS...NEAR SALINA/I-70 AND
THEN OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

AFTER THE PRECIPITATION EXITS...THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE
COLD...WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S AND LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW
TEENS. EARLY MORNING WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BELOW ZERO
TO NEAR 10 BELOW IN CENTRAL KANSAS.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

THE EXTENDED LOOKS ACTIVE THE NEXT WAVE WILL IMPACT THE AREA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK. THE
TRICKY PART OF THE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE TEMPERATURES...AND NOT
NECESSARILY SURFACE...BUT ELEVATED TEMPERATURES. SURFACE
TEMPERATURES LOOK COLD TO NEAR FREEZING. BUT ELEVATED
TEMPERATURES...I.E. NEAR 850MB...WILL WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WHICH WILL CHANGE THE PRECIPITATION TYPE FROM ALL SNOW ON SATURDAY
TO A MIX BY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. DETAILS WILL CHANGE THROUGHOUT THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...BUT THIS PERIOD COULD PRODUCE TRAVEL HAZARDS AND SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS. BE SURE TO WATCH AS THE FORECAST EVOLVES THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WILL NOT WARM MUCH...STAYING THE 20S AND 30S FOR
HIGHS THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
AND INTO THE MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER AN ARCTIC FRONT
WILL BLAST SOUTHWARD ACROSS KANSAS LATER IN THE DAY WITH NORTH
WINDS INCREASING DRAMATICALLY BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. VERY
STRONG NORTH WINDS AND GUSTS OF 35 TO 40KTS ARE EXPECTED ALONG
WITH LOW CLOUDS IN THE MVFR CATEGORY.

JAKUB

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 329 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE FORECAST. THERE WILL
BE PERIODIC BOUTS OF PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER CENTRAL
KANSAS AND THEN OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THESE
CHANCES WILL KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITIES UP DESPITE INCREASED WIND
SPEEDS.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    20  48  16  24 /   0  10  20  10
HUTCHINSON      22  49  14  23 /   0  20  20  10
NEWTON          22  47  12  22 /   0  20  20  10
ELDORADO        21  48  14  24 /   0  20  30  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   20  47  18  25 /   0  10  10  10
RUSSELL         22  49  11  20 /   0  30  10  10
GREAT BEND      21  47  13  21 /   0  20  10  10
SALINA          23  50  13  22 /   0  30  20  10
MCPHERSON       22  48  13  22 /   0  20  30  10
COFFEYVILLE     20  46  21  27 /   0   0  20  10
CHANUTE         21  47  17  24 /   0  10  30  10
IOLA            21  47  17  23 /   0  20  30  10
PARSONS-KPPF    21  47  19  26 /   0  10  20  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$


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