Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 222334
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
534 PM CST THU JAN 22 2015

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 229 PM CST THU JAN 22 2015

THE SHORTWAVE THAT BROUGHT HEAVY SNOWS TO THE TX PANHANDLE IS
SLIDING OVER THE SW PORTIONS OF TX. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY
EXTENDS FROM QUEBEC INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. AT THE
SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES WITH LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE TX GULF COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 PM CST THU JAN 22 2015

SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE AS THE SHORTWAVE TRACKS ACROSS
TX TONIGHT AND INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON FRI. AT THE
SAME TIME...AN UPPER IMPULSE WILL TRACK OUT OF MANITOBA AND
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. BY THE WEEKEND NW FLOW ALOFT WILL
SETUP OVER THE PLAINS AS RIDGING STRENGTHENS OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS. THIS WILL COMMENCE A STRONG WARMING TREND SAT AND INTENSIFY
BY SUN. PARTIAL THICKNESSES AND 850MB TEMPS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...ESPECIALLY WHEN CONSIDERING WE WILL HAVE GOOD DOWNSLOPE.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO DIVE A FAST MOVING PIECE OF
ENERGY OUT OF SOUTHERN CANADA AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY SUN-SUN
NIGHT. THE ECMWF IS QUITE A BIT FASTER WITH THIS FEATURE AND DIGS
IT FURTHER WEST COMPARED TO THE GFS. REGARDLESS OF WHICH MODEL
VERIFIES...PRECIP WILL STAY EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 PM CST THU JAN 22 2015

THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED TO START THE WORK WEEK WITH NW
FLOW OVER THE PLAINS AND RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES. THE
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPS WILL CONTINUE FOR BOTH MON AND TUE AND AT
THIS POINT FEEL THAT MON MAYBE SLIGHTLY WARMER DUE TO INCREASED
DOWNSLOPE. STILL DON`T THINK IT`S OUT OF THE QUESTION TO SEE A FEW
SITES WEST OF I-135 PUSH 70 DEGREES. THE GFS REMAINS MORE ROBUST
COMPARED TO THE ECMWF IN SWINGING THROUGH A WEAK SHORTWAVE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS FOR WED-WED NIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL GET US
OUT OF NW FLOW AND MAY ALLOW SOME MUCH COLDER AIR TO BEGIN TO
SPILL OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 532 PM CST THU JAN 22 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. WILL SEE A GRADUAL WIND SHIFT TO THE SW AS A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    24  49  30  57 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      22  50  28  58 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          23  49  28  55 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        25  48  30  56 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   25  49  29  57 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         20  50  27  59 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      20  50  27  58 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          22  50  28  57 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       23  49  28  57 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     24  48  28  56 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         24  48  28  55 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            24  47  28  55 /   0   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    24  47  28  55 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$


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