Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 170428
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1128 PM CDT SAT AUG 16 2014

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT SAT AUG 16 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SLOW MOVING SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH AN ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER
SOUTHERN QUEBEC. MEANWHILE...A MUCH WEAKER CIRCULATION IS SLOWLY
TRACKING ACROSS NORTHEAST MO. SURFACE FLOW REMAINS VERY WEAK WITH
WHAT LOOKS TO BE A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN MO INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL KS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT SAT AUG 16 2014

ISO-SCT STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON OVER
SOUTHEAST AND POSSIBLY PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KS ALONG THE WEAK
SURFACE FRONT. ANY ACTIVITY WILL BE ON THE DECREASE AFTER SUNSET.
JUST LIKE EARLY THIS MORNING...SOME FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 09Z
ALONG OUR EAST AND NORTHEAST FRINGES OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE
BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS ON SUN WILL BE SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA ALONG THE SLOW MOVING WEAK COLD FRONT...AND DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS DUE TO MAINLY UPSLOPE
PROCESSES. SO FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH THE DRY FORECAST. FAIRLY
CONFIDENT THAT STORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS BY EARLY
SUN EVENING...ESPECIALLY AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
INCREASES ALONG THE 315K SURFACE OVER NW KS/SW NEBRASKA. SOME OF
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD TRY TO BUILD SOUTH SUN NIGHT AND MAY AFFECT
PARTS OF AT LEAST CENTRAL KS TOWARD THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE
GFS TAKES SOME OF THE MID LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION FURTHER SOUTH
COMPARED TO THE NAM...SO CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME ISO STORMS
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KS MON MORNING.

MON LOOKS TO BE ACTIVE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN
NEBRASKA/IA/NORTHERN MO...AS THE IMPULSE CURRENTLY OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR OUR AREA TO SEE STORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS
TO BE MON NIGHT AS THE 850-700MB FLOW VEERS...SETTING UP A DECENT
ISENTROPIC LIFT SIGNAL...ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-135. DEEP LAYER
SHEAR ALSO LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH TO POSSIBLY GET A SEVERE STORM OR
TWO ON MON EVENING/MON NIGHT. TUE LOOKS LIKE A CLASSIC HIGH PLAINS
MCS SCENARIO WITH STORMS DEVELOPING DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON OVER
NW KS/SW NEBRASKA AND TRACKING EAST AND SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT WITH
CENTRAL KS HAVING THE BEST CHANCE TO GET IN ON SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY.

TEMPS SHOULD STAY FAIRLY STEADY WITH A SMALL WARM UP TO 97-100
FOR MON AND TUE OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THESE
READINGS WILL BE AROUND 5-7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT SAT AUG 16 2014

THE MAIN THEME THROUGH THESE EXTENDED PERIODS WILL BE FOR A
DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NW WHICH WILL RESULT IN
STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGING OVER SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS SHOULD PUSH THE BETTER PRECIP CHANCES
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND ALSO PROMOTE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
WITH SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA POSSIBLY REACHING 100 TOWARD
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1123 PM CDT SAT AUG 16 2014

WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION FOR TONIGHT
WITH LIGHT NORTHEAST/EAST WINDS VEERING AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST ON
SUNDAY. MEANWHILE MOIST LOW LEVELS COULD LEAD TO SOME FOG DEVELOP
FOR LOCATIONS MAINLY NORTH OF A HUTCHINSON TO EL DORADO...TO
INDEPENDENCE LINE. VISIBILITIES COULD DROP TO AROUND ONE MILE OR
LESS IN SPOTS. ANY LINGERING FOG SHOULD DIMINISH BY MID-MORNING
WITH VFR CONDITIONS THEREAFTER.

JAKUB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    71  95  72  98 /  10  10  20  20
HUTCHINSON      69  95  71  99 /  10  10  20  20
NEWTON          69  93  71  97 /  10  10  20  20
ELDORADO        69  93  71  97 /  20  10  20  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   70  96  72  98 /  20  10  10  20
RUSSELL         69  95  70  96 /  10  10  30  20
GREAT BEND      69  95  70  97 /  10  10  20  20
SALINA          69  95  72  98 /  10  10  30  20
MCPHERSON       68  94  71  97 /  10  10  20  20
COFFEYVILLE     69  94  70  96 /  30  10  10  20
CHANUTE         68  91  69  94 /  30  10  10  20
IOLA            68  90  69  93 /  30  10  10  20
PARSONS-KPPF    69  93  70  95 /  30  10  10  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$






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