Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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608
FXUS63 KICT 142033
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
333 PM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 335 PM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

This afternoon, a line of thunderstorms developed, as expected,
along a NE-SW oriented warm front that, at 2 PM, extended from
extreme Southeast Nebraska, through KGBD, then thru Southwest KS
where it curved sharply W into Southeast CO. The cold front will
continue to be a MAJOR player in the forecast for the rest of the
afternoon & tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 335 PM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

This Evening:
A SHARP, positively-tilted upper-deck wave extends from along the
Saskatchewan/Manitoba border to the CO/NM border. As this intense
upper wave surges E tonight, the afore-mentioned warm front would
transition into a cold front & surge SE through the remainder of
Central & Southeast KS. The front should reach the KS Turnpike ~9
PM. SE of the front, a very warm, moist environment will combine
with steep lapse rates to induce significant destabilization
across the SE half of KS this afternoon & early evening. Bulk
shear is STRONG, & will likely reach 65-70kts close to the front &
MLCAPES from ~2,000-2,500 J/KG supercells are certain. Both large
hail (around ping pong ball-sized) & 60 to 70 mph winds are
anticipated. As the cold front surges SE, the primary threat would
be damaging winds as the bowing potential would increase. The
northwest winds in the wake of frontal passage are strong.
Sustained speeds from 25-35 mph with gusts ~45 mph are likely
across nearly all of Central & South-Central KS, especially from
7-11 PM. The Wind Advisory obviously remains intact.

Overnight:
With the SE-surging cold front surging crossing all of Southeast
KS 11PM-Mid Night all thunderstorms should clear Southeast KS 9-10
PM by which time only a few post-frontal showers should exist over
Southeast KS. NW 15-25 mph winds will continue to funnel much
cooler air into KS.

Sun-Tue Night:
All will be quiet across KS as strong high pressure spreads SE
across KS Sun & Sun Night. As the high ventures SE into the Mid-MS
Valley & Southern Plains lower-deck would quickly become S/SW to
enable temps to slowly rebound.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 335 PM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

Wed-Fri:
Warm & dry weather will dominate as a strong & broad mid-upper
high pressure spreads E across most of the U.S.

Sat-Sat Night:
Any chances for thunderstorms (& they`re low) should not arrive
until next Sat night.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

Scattered elevated thunderstorms will persist into mid-afternoon
from south-central into northeast Kansas. Isolated small hail and
gusty winds could accompany these storms.

A strong cold front from southeast nebraska to northwest Kansas,
will surge rapidly southward across the remainder of Kansas late
this afternoon and evening. South-southwesterly winds of 15-20
knots with gusts of 25-30 knots, will shift to northwesterly
behind the front. Strong northwesterly gusts of 35-45 knots will
affect central/south-central Kansas this evening, before peak
gusts diminish overnight. A quasi-linear band of strong-severe
storms is expected to develop with the frontal surge very late
this afternoon/evening, across south-central/southeast Kansas.
Damaging winds will be the main threat, with a lesser chance of
large hail.

IFR/MVFR ceilings over northwest/north-central Kansas early this
afternoon, may try to filter southward into central Kansas through
early this evening behind the front, although ceiling heights are
expected to improve.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    46  64  42  70 /  70   0   0   0
Hutchinson      43  63  40  70 /  40   0   0   0
Newton          44  62  41  69 /  60   0   0   0
ElDorado        45  63  41  69 /  70   0   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   47  64  41  69 /  70   0   0   0
Russell         40  64  39  73 /   0   0   0   0
Great Bend      40  64  39  72 /  10   0   0   0
Salina          42  63  40  72 /  30   0   0   0
McPherson       43  62  39  70 /  40   0   0   0
Coffeyville     50  64  41  69 /  90   0   0   0
Chanute         48  62  40  69 / 100   0   0   0
Iola            48  62  40  69 / 100   0   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    49  63  40  69 / 100   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 1 AM CDT Sunday for
KSZ032-033-047>052-067-068-082-083-091-092.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...EPS
SHORT TERM...EPS
LONG TERM...EPS
AVIATION...JMC



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