Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 040001
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
701 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

DIURNAL HEATING BENEATH LINGERING WEAK TROF ALOFT HAS RESULTED
IN WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION WHERE AROUND 1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE
RESIDES ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS. THEREFORE EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY
TO SEE ITS DEMISE WITH LOSS OF HEATING TOWARD SUNSET. ELEVATED
WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT SHOULD
FOSTER CONTINUED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
WITH THE MEAN FLOW ALOFT CARRYING SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY INTO FAR
WESTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS BY SATURDAY MORNING. MOST OF
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON THE 4TH OF JULY SHOULD BE WARM AND DRY
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. HOWEVER...AN UPPER SHORTWAVE
TROF WILL VENTURE SOUTHEAST INTO AND ACROSS THE AREA LATE IN THE
DAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. STRONG TO SEVERE DIURNAL CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO THE EAST OF THE LEE SIDE SURFACE TROF OVER WESTERN
KANSAS BY EARLY SATURDAY EVENING...WITH FORCING FOR ASCENT FROM
THE APPROACHING UPPER TROF AND DECENT ELEVATED MOISTURE TRANSPORT
POSSIBLY SUPPORTING A MORE ORGANIZED MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM...WHICH COULD IMPACT PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. IF SO...THEN POPS WILL NEED TO BE
RAMPED UP ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE. THIS CONVECTION
WOULD LIKELY CARRY INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS. A WARMER AND WINDY DAY IS THEN
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...AND CONVECTIVE CHANCES INTO THE AFTERNOON
WILL HINGE ON THE EXTENT OF ANY PRIOR ACTIVITY. IF A MORE
EXTENSIVE MCS EVOLVES THEN SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE MAY LIMIT
DIURNAL/AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT. SO FOR NOW WILL RETAIN SOME
CHANCES...THOUGH TWEAK DOWN A BIT.

A MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROF IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST ON MONDAY...WHICH WILL
PUSH A RATHER STRONG COLD FRONT FOR EARLY JULY ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EASTERN KANSAS...SO WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY HIGHER POPS OVER
THE FORECAST AREA.

DARMOFAL

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

AN OCCASIONALLY DISTURBED WESTERLY FLOW REGIME ALOFT WILL
PREVAIL INTO THE MID-WEEK PERIODS AS AN UPPER LOW OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST MOVES INLAND. THE RETREATING SURFACE FRONT
MIGRATING NORTH ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR PERIODIC
CONVECTIVE EPISODES...WHICH IS REFLECTED WELL IN THE GOING
FORECAST. THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT FOR THE UPPER LOW TO OPEN
UP AND LIFT NORTHEAST OVER THE WESTERN CONUS LATE IN THE WEEK
WITH RIDGING ALOFT DOWNSTREAM OVER THE PLAINS. THIS SHOULD
PORTEND TO WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DIMINISHING PRECIP CHANCES
BY FRIDAY.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 701 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

EAST TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE PRESENT AND WILL CONTINUE TO
BECOME EASTERLY OVERNIGHT AND SOUTHEASTERLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. CONFIDENCE ON LOW CEILINGS AND FOG OVER SOUTHERN AND
ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST KANSAS IS LOW AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL MONITOR
IT AND AMEND AND/OR ADD FOR 06Z ISSUANCE IF NEEDED. THINK THE MAIN
CONVECTIVE THREAT HAS DIMINISHED FOR THE AREA.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    66  89  71  92 /  10  10  40  30
HUTCHINSON      64  90  70  93 /  10  10  40  30
NEWTON          64  88  70  91 /  10  10  40  30
ELDORADO        64  88  70  90 /  20  10  30  30
WINFIELD-KWLD   66  89  70  91 /  20  10  40  40
RUSSELL         65  90  70  95 /  20  20  30  20
GREAT BEND      66  90  69  94 /  20  20  30  20
SALINA          64  90  70  94 /  10  10  30  20
MCPHERSON       64  89  71  92 /  10  10  30  30
COFFEYVILLE     65  88  69  89 /  20  10  20  40
CHANUTE         64  87  68  89 /  20  10  10  30
IOLA            64  86  69  88 /  20  10  10  30
PARSONS-KPPF    64  88  69  89 /  20  10  10  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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