Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KICT 310838
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
338 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THROUGH MID AFTERNOON:
ELEVATED PRECIPITATION DEVELOPED ON SCHEDULE AND STILL EXPECTED
TO LINGER INTO LATE MORNING OVER THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF FLINT
HILLS. OTHERWISE WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF SURFACE FRONT...BUT
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE
A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.

LATE AFTERNOON-TONIGHT:
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. SEVERE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO EITHER MOVE INTO OR DEVELOP OVER NORTHWEST SECTIONS
MOST LIKELY AROUND 0000 UTC. CONSIDERABLE DISCREPANCIES IN
CONVECTIVE INDICES...BUT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS GIVEN DYNAMICS. AS FOR EVOLUTION...LATEST
ARW-NNM HAD FAIRLY DECENT DEPICTION OF ANTICIPATED AREA/TIMING.
COMBO OF STOUT CAP AND LESS CONVERGENCE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS WILL
LIKELY LIMIT SOUTHWARD DEVELOPMENT IN ABSENCE OF LARGER THAN
ANTICIPATED COLD POOL. THE TRACK OF MCS IS GENERALLY EAST
SOUTHEAST...EXPANDING SPATIALLY OVERNIGHT INTO PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
KS.

MON-TUE:
MCS PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER A BIT ON MON...BUT NORTHEAST/SOUTHWEST
OR EAST NORTHEAST/WEST SOUTHWEST ORIENTED FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
WILL PROVIDE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND
ESPECIALLY MON NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL JET IMPINGES ON BOUNDARY. SEVERE
STORMS POSSIBLE MON AFTERNOON ROUGHLY OVER FLINT HILLS...BUT STILL
UNCERTAINTY ON CLOUDS/INSTABILITY. GOOD CHANCE FOR SOME SUBSTANTIAL
NOCTURNAL RAINFALL GIVEN ORIENTATION OF BOUNDARY/FLOW ALOFT AND
LIKELIHOOD OF TRAINING STORMS MON NIGHT. ON TUE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES COULD LINGER THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BUT BETTER CHANCES WILL
COME TUE NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AND FRONT/RICHER MOISTURE
LIFTS BACK NORTH. MAXES WILL REMAIN TRICKY WITH POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIPITATION AND/OR EXTENSIVE CLOUDS TO SIGNIFICANTLY SUPPRESS MAXES.
-HOWERTON

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT ON WED-THU WITH
PRECIPITATION EXITING WED AS RETURN FLOW BECOMES WELL ESTABLISHED.
BOTH TEMPERATURES/WINDS WILL INCREASE ON WED AND PERSIST ON THU.
HOWEVER ECMWF/GFS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE MARKEDLY BY LATE THU AND
INTO THE WEEKEND. ECMWF DEPICTS A FAIRLY STRONG WAVE RACING EAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHICH FORCES FRONT AND RESULTANT
PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA MUCH FASTER THAN GFS. BY FRI NIGHT
GFS HAS PUSHED FRONT INTO NORTHERN KS...WHILE ECMWF HAS IT WELL
INTO OK/AR. AS A RESULT...LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST
THIS PERIOD. -HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

ISOLATED-WIDELY SCATTERED TSRA MAY DEVELOP EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
ACROSS CENTRAL KS...IN AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT/MOISTURE TRANSPORT
AHEAD OF LEAD SHORTWAVE EJECTING FROM ROCKIES. WILL UTILIZE VCTS
AT RSL/SLN/HUT TERMINALS FOR THIS POSSIBLE ACTIVITY. STEEPENING
LEE CYCLONE OVER EASTERN COLORADO SUNDAY...WILL LEAD TO VERY GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS AREA-WIDE. GUSTS OF 25-35 KNOTS ARE LIKELY.
A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT OUT ACROSS THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG COLD
FRONT FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO NORTHWESTERN KS. OTHER MORE
ISOLATED STORMS MAY FORM ALONG THE LEE TROUGH AXIS OVER WESTERN
KS. WILL KEEP A VCTS MENTION IN CENTRAL KS SUN EVE WITH HIGHER
PROBABILITIES OF THUNDER EXPECTED THERE...AND CAN INTRODUCE
FURTHER SOUTH IN LATER TAF ISSUANCES IF NECESSARY.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    96  75  91  68 /  10  30  30  50
HUTCHINSON      96  71  88  68 /  10  30  20  40
NEWTON          95  72  89  67 /  10  40  30  40
ELDORADO        95  74  92  67 /  10  40  30  50
WINFIELD-KWLD   96  76  94  69 /  10  20  40  50
RUSSELL         97  66  83  64 /  20  70  10  20
GREAT BEND      97  67  85  65 /  20  50  10  30
SALINA          97  70  84  65 /  20  70  20  20
MCPHERSON       96  70  87  67 /  20  50  20  30
COFFEYVILLE     96  76  92  71 /  10  30  40  50
CHANUTE         95  74  92  69 /  10  40  40  50
IOLA            94  74  91  69 /  10  50  40  50
PARSONS-KPPF    96  75  92  70 /  10  30  40  50

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.