Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 271108
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
508 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 234 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A POTENT SHORTWAVE LIFTING ACROSS THE
EASTERN SEABOARD WITH ADDITIONAL ENERGY COMING ON SHORE OVER
SOUTHERN CA. MEANWHILE...STRONG RIDGING REMAINS OVER THE ROCKIES.
AT THE SURFACE...WEAK LEE TROUGHING STRETCHES FROM EASTERN MT INTO
NW KS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

ANOTHER RECORD SETTING DAY IN THE TEMPERATURE DEPARTMENT WILL BE
BE ON TAP TODAY. 850MB TEMPS WILL ACTUALLY BE SEVERAL DEGREES
WARMER THAN WHAT THEY WERE MON. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA WON`T SEE THE DOWNSLOPE WINDS THAT WE SAW YESTERDAY WHICH
WILL LIMIT FULL HEATING POTENTIAL. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE CENTRAL
KS WHERE THERE WILL BE SOME DOWNSLOPE AND IN THESE LOCATIONS TEMPS
SHOULD BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S. EVEN WITHOUT DOWNSLOPE...TEMPS
WILL PROBABLY END UP CLOSE TO WHERE THEY WERE MON JUST DUE TO THE
WARMER 850MB TEMPS. SHOULD EASILY SHATTER MOST OF THE RECORDS
TODAY AS THEY ARE ALL IN THE 65 TO 70 DEGREE RANGE.

THE UPPER IMPULSE OVER SOUTHERN CA WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AND WILL
MOVE OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS FOR
WED. THE UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPS WILL CONTINUE FOR WED AND FEEL
THERE COULD BE A RAPID RISE IN TEMPS JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH AS IT SLIDES SOUTHEAST. SO STILL FEEL THAT HIGHS IN THE 70S
WILL BE A GOOD BET FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. RECORDS ARE
QUITE A BIT HIGHER WED COMPARED TO TODAY BUT STILL FEEL A COUPLE
MAYBE IN JEOPARDY. THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL TRACK OUT OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY THU. WHILE THE
AIR BEHIND THIS WAVE WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN WHAT WE`VE HAD THE
LAST FEW DAYS...IT WILL STILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR
THE END OF JANUARY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH REGARDS
TO THE SYSTEM TO LIFT OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THIS WEEKEND.
DEEP ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL COMMENCE FRI ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND SPREAD NORTH ON FRI NIGHT RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD PRECIP. BY
SAT SOME OF THE JET ENERGY WILL START TO DIRECTLY AFFECT THE
FORECAST AREA. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN MOST OF THE AREA
SEEING PRECIP FOR THE FRI NIGHT THROUGH SUN MORNING TIME
FRAME...CONFIDENCE IS MUCH LESS WITH REGARDS TO PRECIP TYPE BEFORE
THE MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES IN SUN. AT THIS POINT FEEL THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWS WILL BE FOR LOCATIONS NORTHWEST OF
THE KS TURNPIKE. THOSE WITH TRAVEL PLANS THIS WEEKEND WILL NEED TO
KEEP AN EYE ON THIS STORM SYSTEM. WHILE IT DOESN`T LOOK LIKE A
MAJOR WINTER STORM IT LOOKS TO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE SOME
TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 505 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR ALL TAF SITES ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN KANSAS FOR THE NEXT 24HRS. SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
MAINTAIN OVER THE REGION AS A SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS SLOWLY ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO.

JAKUB

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 234 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

VERY HIGH GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER WILL OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE AREA FOR
WED AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE THE RESULT OF NW-SW WINDS AROUND 25 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH. LATE AFTERNOON RH`S ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM AROUND 25% OVER CENTRAL KS TO AROUND 40% OVER SE KS. AFTERNOON
WIND DIRECTION WILL BE NW OVER CENTRAL KS AND SW OVER THE SOUTHEAST
CORNER OF THE STATE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    73  42  73  41 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      73  39  72  39 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          71  41  72  38 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        68  43  73  41 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   70  43  74  40 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         75  40  71  37 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      75  40  72  37 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          70  40  71  37 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       72  39  72  38 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     66  42  73  40 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         63  40  71  39 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            62  39  71  39 /   0   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    64  41  72  39 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$


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