Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 171205
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
705 AM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017

...Updated for Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 303 AM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017

Today-tonight:
Main question today is when/where cap will break.
Trends/consensus is that front will likely be about half way
through forecast area by very late afternoon. Thinking given
capping/warm air aloft, storms will likely wait until late
afternoon at the earliest. Given extreme instability and favorable
shear, severe storms appear likely. Some lingering post frontal
rain showers/thunderstorm possible later in the evening with
better cooling aloft. Secondary concern is heat indices. Values
will flirt with warning criteria along most of the OK border
counties and will upgrade for consistency. Also will extend the
headlines another hour in the south where front will likely not be
through. KSLN will flirt with a record high today.

Sunday:
Much cooler and drier air will overspread the area on Father`s
Day, with dewpoints down to the 50s and highs in the lower 80s.
Outside chance that precipitation could linger past 1200 UTC, but
given recent model trends, this seems unlikely. Mild airmass will
remain in place as surface ridge drifts across forecast area on
Monday. -Howerton

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 303 AM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017

Tuesday-Friday:
Will remain in northwest flow aloft through mid week when flow
then transitions a bit more zonal. This may allow another front
to move through on Friday with the next best chance for rain.
Outside chance there could be a couple pds of storms rolling off
the High Plains, but timing is notoriously difficult. Temperatures
will generally climb throughout the period until friday.
-Howerton

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 703 AM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017

Storms will affect extreme east/southeast Kansas early this
morning. Scattered storms are expected to redevelop after 5 PM
across portions of central and east-central KS, as a strong cold
front approaches from the north. Severe weather is likely with
any storms that form, including large hail, damaging winds,
frequent lightning and heavy rain. These storms will move into
southern KS during the evening. Additional non-severe showers and
storms will impact areas north of the front during the evening and
overnight across central/northern KS. Strong/gusty north winds
also anticipated in wake of the front this evening and overnight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT   101  67  83  62 /  20  50  10   0
Hutchinson     102  65  83  59 /  20  40  10   0
Newton         100  65  81  60 /  30  50  10   0
ElDorado        97  65  81  59 /  30  60  20   0
Winfield-KWLD  100  68  83  61 /  20  60  10   0
Russell         99  61  82  59 /  10  20   0   0
Great Bend     101  63  82  59 /  10  30   0   0
Salina         103  64  83  60 /  10  30  10   0
McPherson      102  64  82  59 /  20  40  10   0
Coffeyville     95  70  83  61 /  10  70  40   0
Chanute         95  68  82  60 /  20  70  30   0
Iola            95  67  82  59 /  30  70  30   0
Parsons-KPPF    95  69  82  60 /  10  70  30   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this evening
for KSZ049-051>053-067>072-082-083.

Excessive Heat Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this
evening for KSZ092-093-098>100.

Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening
for KSZ091-092-094>096.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PJH
LONG TERM...PJH
AVIATION...ADK



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