Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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970
FXUS63 KICT 282336
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
636 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 253 PM CDT Sat May 28 2016

Water vapor imagery shows upper-level energy lifting into the
Upper Mississippi River Valley this afternoon. With a remnant
pocket of cooler air aloft lingering across portions of the region,
diurnally driven cumulus developed this afternoon with ample
insolation.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 253 PM CDT Sat May 28 2016

The main forecast concerns are thunderstorm chances through the
first part of the work week and the arrival of a cold front on
Tuesday. Confidence is not particularly high in regards to how warm
temperatures will get over the next few days given the potential
for cloudy conditions and precipitation chances across much of
the area.

With the remnants of the diffuse surface boundary, that pushed
across central and southeast Kansas earlier this morning, draped
across central Oklahoma up into southwest Missouri thunderstorm
chances have been removed this evening across far southeast
Kansas. The diurnal cumulus that has developed this afternoon will
diminish once we lose daytime heating with a pleasant evening in
store. Sunday morning expect cloud cover to be on the increase as
low level moisture begins to return northward. Towards daybreak
models are consistent with H85 moisture transport edging northward
across south central and central Kansas. Lapse rates do not look
terribly impressive; however, with a pocket of steep lapse rates
in the mid levels will continue to include mentions of
thunderstorms beginning in the morning hours. Confidence is
highest towards the afternoon and evening hours for thunderstorm
chances as a subtle shortwave is progged to eject out of the
southern Rockies.

For Monday, there are some discrepancies amongst the models in
regards to the axis of moisture transport. Therefore, confidence
is not particularly high in the overall converge of thunderstorm
activity. Given this uncertainty, have opted to maintain at least
chance PoPs for thunderstorms. Thunderstorm activity that can
develop along and west of I-135 may see the potential to become
strong to severe. With a weakly capped and modestly unstable
atmosphere overhead, even if storms cannot become surface based a
few elevated storms will have enough shear and instability to work
with. East of the I-135 corridor the instability drops off fairly
dramatically; therefore, the potential for strong to severe storms
is far less pronounced in those areas. By Tuesday morning as the
aforementioned cold front approaches central Kansas expect
thunderstorms become more widespread across central Kansas. As the
frontal boundary slowly drops southeast during the day on Tuesday
thunderstorm activity will increase across the area. The speed of
the cold front is not terribly impressive with the upper-level
energy lifting across the northern Plains. Therefore, with saturated
soils already in place additional rainfall may exacerbate any
lingering and/or recent flooding.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 253 PM CDT Sat May 28 2016

By Wednesday morning/afternoon the frontal boundary will push across
south central and southeast Kansas; however, there will still be
the potential to see lingering thunderstorm activity during the
morning and afternoon hours. By Wednesday night into Thursday
morning as a stable post frontal airmass settles into the region
things will begin to dry out for the end of the work week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 633 PM CDT Sat May 28 2016

VFR conditions will prevail through the night time hours.
Meanwhile mid-level clouds and scattered rain showers will be
possible across far Southern Kansas early Sunday morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    61  83  63  79 /  10  30  30  40
Hutchinson      60  82  62  78 /  10  30  30  30
Newton          60  83  62  78 /  10  30  30  30
ElDorado        61  83  62  79 /  10  30  30  40
Winfield-KWLD   62  83  63  80 /  10  40  30  40
Russell         57  81  60  80 /  10  30  30  40
Great Bend      58  80  60  80 /  10  30  30  40
Salina          58  83  62  80 /  10  30  30  30
McPherson       58  82  62  78 /  10  30  30  30
Coffeyville     63  85  64  80 /  10  30  20  40
Chanute         62  85  64  81 /  10  30  20  40
Iola            62  85  63  81 /  10  30  20  40
Parsons-KPPF    63  85  63  80 /  10  30  20  40

&&

.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JMR
SHORT TERM...JMR
LONG TERM...JMR
AVIATION...CDJ



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