Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 262025
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
325 PM CDT FRI AUG 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 325 PM CDT Fri Aug 26 2016

Main forecast challenge this evening into early Saturday morning is
convective trends across central and eastern Kansas. Surface heating
continues to destabilize airmass along the turnpike corridor
where effective bulk shear of 35-40 kts resides. A weak line of
surface convergence trailing south over the Flint Hills will provide
one area of focus for storms into the early even hours in advance
of an upper shortwave eminating from the eastern Texas panhandle
into northwest Oklahoma. A few severe storms can be expected
across the Flint Hills into parts of southeast Kansas with perhaps
a few isolated storms even across south central Kansas. Convection
across western Kansas was developing in response to an approaching
northern stream upper trof across the northern Rockies. Decent
850-700 mb warm advection and moisture transport will develop
across central Kansas as this trof moves east across the northern
Plains. This should allow the high Plains convection to develop or
move eastward across central Kansas tonight with highest PoPs
close to the I-70 corridor. Some weak moisture transport may
linger across parts of central and eastern Kansas through Saturday
morning so will decrease but linger PoPs and clouds to start the
day. Otherwise, it will remain seasonably warm but rather humid
through the weekend and into Monday. There is general consensus in
geopotential height rises with some ridging aloft across the area.
However, the low level airmass will remain unstable with
relatively cool mid-level temperatures. So despite weaker forcing
or focus mechanisms will maintain low to modest PoPs across the
area.

Darmofal

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 325 PM CDT Fri Aug 26 2016

Despite a general upper ridging over the Plains will maintain
slight to modest PoPs into much of next week as we look to
maintain a moist/unstable southerly low level flow with some
potential for periodic sub-tropical connection aloft.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1241 PM CDT Fri Aug 26 2016

Aviation concern will be late afternoon/evening storm chances.

Front that storms developed on Thu afternoon has lifted back to
the north and stretches from northeast KS to generally along
I-70. Some IFR cigs linger over central KS(KRSL-KGBD-KSLN) and
should stay around just for a couple more hours. First chance for
storms will be over southeast KS in a couple hours where greatest
instability will be situated with development aided by an
approaching upper wave from the southwest. Storm chances will then
increase over central KS later tonight as storms move off the high
Plains this evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    68  88  69  89 /  30  20  20  20
Hutchinson      67  86  68  88 /  30  30  30  20
Newton          67  86  68  88 /  30  30  20  20
ElDorado        67  87  68  88 /  40  30  20  20
Winfield-KWLD   68  89  69  90 /  30  20  20  20
Russell         63  86  66  89 /  50  20  30  20
Great Bend      64  87  66  89 /  50  20  30  20
Salina          66  86  68  89 /  50  40  30  20
McPherson       66  85  68  88 /  40  30  30  20
Coffeyville     68  90  70  91 /  30  20  20  20
Chanute         68  87  69  88 /  40  30  20  20
Iola            68  87  68  88 /  50  30  20  20
Parsons-KPPF    68  89  69  90 /  40  20  20  20

&&

.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KED
LONG TERM...KED
AVIATION...RBL


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