Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 191720
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1220 PM CDT Mon Jun 19 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 335 AM CDT Mon Jun 19 2017

A fast moving disturbance diving southeast across the upper
Midwest and associated mid-level warm advection will support
scattered sprinkles across portions of northern, central and
eastern Kansas through the morning. Weak lift and a dry sub-cloud
layer will likely preclude anything but sprinkles. Afternoon
temperatures will probably be 2-4 degrees warmer than Sunday for
most areas, although humidity values will still remain on the low
side.

Much warmer weather and slowly increasing humidity will return
for Tuesday and Wednesday, as atmospheric thickness and southerly
winds increase in wake of the departing eastern CONUS longwave
trough. Low- level thicknesses support high temperatures in the
90s both days, with near 100 degrees possible for portions of
central Kansas Wednesday. A few thunderstorms could venture into
central/north-central Kansas Tuesday evening, as convection fires
along a weak dryline over western Kansas Tuesday afternoon.
Better chances should arrive Wednesday afternoon-evening mainly
for central Kansas, as a Northern Plains shortwave drives a
frontal zone south. Shear/instability combo suggests a handful of
strong to severe storms are possible.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 335 AM CDT Mon Jun 19 2017

Active weather is expected to continue Thursday afternoon/evening
through at least early Saturday, as a pair of shortwaves progress
across the northern Plains, driving two separate frontal zones
south across Mid-America. The result will likely be a few rounds
of thunderstorms across the region, with strong to severe storms
possible. Timing variability really increases between the GFS,
ECMWF and GEM models toward the weekend, with GFS ending
precipitation by early Saturday, ECMWF by early Sunday, and the
GEM keeping most of the weekend wet/stormy. So needless to say,
confidence is low on when the stormy period will end. However, all
guidance eventually brings in cooler/drier air sometime this
weekend into early next week, as Canadian high pressure drops
south across the Heartland.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1217 PM CDT Mon Jun 19 2017

Broken-overcast altocumulus decks (10,000-13,000 ft agl) will
continue to move southeastward across central/southeast Kansas
this afternoon. Spotty sprinkles have been observed under the
mid-level clouds, in association with a weak wave and mid-level
warm air advection, moving through the region. Expecting the
cloud cover and sprinkles to diminish from northwest to southeast
late this afternoon into early this evening. Otherwise, VFR will
prevail with very light west-southwesterly surface winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    83  65  92  69 /  10   0  10  10
Hutchinson      86  64  93  70 /  10   0  10  10
Newton          85  64  91  69 /  10   0  10  10
ElDorado        82  63  90  68 /  10   0   0  10
Winfield-KWLD   83  64  91  69 /  10   0   0  10
Russell         87  64  95  71 /  10   0  10  30
Great Bend      87  64  94  71 /  10   0  10  20
Salina          88  64  95  71 /  10   0  10  20
McPherson       87  64  93  70 /  10   0  10  20
Coffeyville     82  64  91  67 /  10   0   0   0
Chanute         82  63  90  67 /  10   0   0   0
Iola            83  63  90  67 /  10   0   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    82  63  90  67 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADK
LONG TERM...ADK
AVIATION...JMC



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