Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 261736
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1236 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday Night)
Issued at 355 AM CDT Thu May 26 2016

Forecast Headline:
Severe thunderstorm potential remains high from late this afternoon
thru tonight with very large hail and tornadoes the greatest
threats.

This Afternoon & Tonight:
During the night a deep upper-deck trof was positioned over AZ. The
upper trof is still expected to push slowly E across the Srn
Rockies today & is still expected to experience cyclogenesis as it
begins to lift very slowly NE from Nrn NM late tonight, with the
upper cyclone reaching the CO/KS border early Fri Morning. As this
character lifts NE sfc cyclongenesis will increase considerably as
the sfc low ventures from NE NM to the TX/OK Panhandles/SE CO/SW KS
region this afternoon. The ultra-high octane moisture streaming N
will team with the greatly increasing deep-layer shear, both speed
& directional, to trigger severe thunderstorms across most of KICT
Country late this afternoon & this evening. Although it won`t be
quite as warm/hot yesterday, the extremely rich moisture would be
more than sufficient to cause extreme destablization. CAPES will
experience an adrenaline rush with SBCAPES & MLCAPES projected to
reach 4,000-5,500 J/KG & primarily 3,500-4,000 J/KG, respectively &
deep-layer bulk shear increasing to 40-60 KTS & an E-W sfc boundary
forming near I-70, there will be supercells that`ll be capable of
very large hail that now is likely to reach around baseball-sized
& tornadoes. Areas at greatest risk for such large hail & tornadoes
would be from Southern Nebraska to nearly all of Central KS. SPC
continues to assign "Enhanced Risk" to these areas but wouldn`t be
surprised to see them up the ante to " MODERATE Risk". Stay tuned.

*Corrected risk in last line.

This Weekend:
With the overall pattern making very slow ewd progress, more
thunderstorms will fire across the region. Although the projected
instability & deep-layer shear won`t be as impressive, plus the
absence of a lower-deck focusing mechanism, still expect a few
strong-severe thunderstorms to develop Fri Afternoon & Evening
with the convection weakening Fri Night. Scattered thunderstorms
will continue thru the weekend.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 355 AM CDT Thu May 26 2016

The GFS & ECMWF continue to agree quite well with overall pattern
 with both depicting a weak zonal regime Sunday & Sunday Night. A
2nd upper-deck trof is forecast to move E & like it`s predecessor
it`ll move slowly E & strengthen as it digs across Srn CA. A lead
shortwave will eject NE, likely reaching Wrn OK & Wrn KS Sun
Afternoon. As such, there`ll be several rounds of thunderstorms
from Sun Afternoon thru next Tue.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Thu May 26 2016

Major concern is convective potential and confidence in timing is
low. Ongoing elevated showers/thunderstorms will track close to
KGBD/KHUT/KICT and possibly KSLN over the first couple of hours
of forecast. Stronger storms are likely mid-late afternoon, but
exact location and timing is suspect. This seems most likely
at KHUT/KGBD, but is possible at all sites except KCNU. IFR
conditions are likely with storms with winds of 35g45kt likely.
Given soupy airmass will remain in place, anticipate mvfr/ifr
condition to return later tonight. -howerton

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    85  67  81  63 /  50  60  50  40
Hutchinson      85  65  82  60 /  60  60  50  40
Newton          84  65  80  62 /  60  60  50  40
ElDorado        84  66  80  64 /  60  60  50  50
Winfield-KWLD   85  67  81  64 /  50  60  50  40
Russell         85  62  82  57 /  50  50  40  40
Great Bend      86  62  83  57 /  50  50  40  30
Salina          85  65  81  61 /  60  70  50  60
McPherson       85  65  81  60 /  60  60  50  40
Coffeyville     84  68  81  66 /  50  50  60  50
Chanute         84  67  79  65 /  50  60  60  60
Iola            84  66  79  65 /  50  60  60  60
Parsons-KPPF    84  68  80  65 /  50  60  60  50

&&

.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EPS
LONG TERM...EPS
AVIATION...PJH



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