Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 070841
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
241 AM CST Thu Dec 7 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 148 AM CST Thu Dec 7 2017

A deep, positively tilted trough currently extends into the
region this morning. The strong CAA associated with this trough
will keep temperatures well below normal today. Partly cloudy
skies and westerly winds will keep the precipitation chances
nearly non-existent as well. By this evening, the trough will
transit to the east and mid and upper level ridging will replace
it. This will allow for some WAA to enter the region and allow
temperatures to recover Friday and Saturday. Partly cloudy skies
will dominate and westerly flow will keep things dry. Temperatures
are expected to rise above normal for Saturday. Night time
temperatures are expected to remain near normal due the calmer
winds and very dry conditions. This will allow for some good
radiational cool Friday and Saturday nights keeping overnight lows
near normal.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 148 AM CST Thu Dec 7 2017

Sunday, the long wave ridge will continue to push into the region
with continued dry westerly flow. WAA continues Sunday and will
allow temperatures to be well above normal for this time of year.
By Monday, the ridging will give way to another backdoor front
will come through during the mid to late morning. CAA will return
to the region and bring temperatures back down toward normal.
Confidence is low at this time on the timing and intensity. Both
the GFS and the ECMWF are projecting thicknesses that support mid
to low 40s. As such, temperatures for Monday could be several
degrees cooler than currently forecast. The pressure gradient
behind the front is expected to be rather tight. This is will
bring the winds back to the region and could approach advisory
level. Luckily, this push of cold air and wind appears to be
transient as most models indicate ridging will build back into the
region. Temperatures are expected to rebound Tuesday and
Wednesday and hover a little above normal for this time of year.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1126 PM CST Wed Dec 6 2017

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. Mid level clouds
across CENTRAL kS at this time, continue to sag south with some
widely scattered mid level radar echoes. Think most of the returns
are virga, as the mid level clouds move over the top of very dry low
layers. Could still see some widely scattered flurries, but seeing
them fall near the TAF is slim, so will not mention it in the TAFS.

The other concern, is a wind shift from the NW to N as another
reinforcing shot of cold air moves south across the region
overnight. Could see some gusty winds for a few hours, as the wind
shift moves across the area.

Ketcham


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    35  19  49  27 /   0   0   0   0
Hutchinson      34  19  49  27 /   0   0   0   0
Newton          33  18  47  27 /   0   0   0   0
ElDorado        33  18  47  26 /   0   0   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   35  19  48  27 /   0   0   0   0
Russell         34  21  50  27 /   0   0   0   0
Great Bend      34  21  51  27 /   0   0   0   0
Salina          34  18  49  27 /   0   0   0   0
McPherson       34  17  48  26 /   0   0   0   0
Coffeyville     35  18  46  26 /   0   0   0   0
Chanute         34  18  44  26 /   0   0   0   0
Iola            34  18  44  26 /   0   0   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    35  18  45  26 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ELM
LONG TERM...ELM
AVIATION...Ketcham



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