Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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209
FXUS63 KICT 230259
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
859 PM CST Thu Feb 22 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 238 PM CST Thu Feb 22 2018

With moisture continuing to be transported into the area from the
south throughout the day today, dreary conditions have been
experienced across the CWA as another round of showers moved into
Kansas from northern Oklahoma. With temperatures at or below the
freezing mark in areas of central and south central Kansas
(generally along and west of the Kansas Turnpike), the dominate
precipitation type in these areas has been freezing rain and
freezing drizzle, adding additional some ice accumulations to
what was already on the ground from the previous round last night
and early this morning. For this reason, the Winter Weather
Advisory remains in effect for central and south central Kansas
until 6pm this evening. See the latest Winter Weather Advisory for
additional details.

In southeast Kansas, temperatures warmed up into the upper 30s to
low 40s, and thus precipitation in southeast KS counties has been
purely liquid rain and drizzle during most of the day today.

All precipitation across the area is expected to end this evening
providing a brief period of relief overnight tonight.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 853 PM CST Thu Feb 22 2018

Freezing drizzle continues to diminish and the winter weather
advisory will be allowed to expire at the top of the hour. With
temperatures hovering near or just below freezing, wet surfaces
may refreeze tonight creating some slick spots. In addition, areas
of fog are expected to develop although the dense fog is expected
to remain across the high plains or mostly west of our forecast
area. Minimum temperatures were raised tonight with abundant low
clouds helping to maintain lows mostly in the lower 30s.

UPDATE Issued at 557 PM CST Thu Feb 22 2018

The winter weather advisory was extended through 9 PM for much of
central and portions of south central KS this evening. Some very
light freezing rain and pockets of freezing drizzle will linger
for a bit before diminishing as we move through the evening hours.
With temperatures hovering near freezing, impacts are expected to
remain limited to mainly elevated surfaces.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 238 PM CST Thu Feb 22 2018

Though wetting precipitation is expected to end this evening, low
level moisture is forecast to linger throughout the night resulting
in cloudy conditions. Weak boundary layer winds and little surface
flow could result in fog development across the region in the early
morning hours of Friday. HiRes model cloud base heights, RAP13,
and model soundings all indicate low clouds throughout Friday
morning and SREF probabilities agree, suggesting a good chance
that visibilities will be reduced over a large portion of the CWA.
With temperatures in the early morning expected to be in the
upper 20s and low 30s, freezing fog conditions are likely to
develop.

As the mid/upper trough that is currently situated over the western
CONUS deepens during the day on Friday and begins to slowly migrate
eastward, another surface low will be kicked ahead of the main
trough, bringing another round of moisture across mid-America late
Friday night and early Saturday. Current thinking is that precip
type will initially vary depending on location, with a chance of
rain/drizzle across south central Kansas, chance of freezing
rain/drizzle further north in central Kansas where temperatures will
be below freezing, and a chance of rain in southeast Kansas. Total
ice accumulation of up to one tenth of an inch is expected,
generally west/northwest of the Kansas Turnpike. As the sun rises
and temperatures warm up into the 40s, all precipitation should
transition to liquid rain and drizzle. Highest rainfall totals
will be in far southeast Kansas, which could receive up to around
a half inch of rain. Lighter rainfall amounts are expected in
south central and central Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 238 PM CST Thu Feb 22 2018

Once this final round of rain moves out of the area late
Saturday, surface high pressure is forecast to settle into the
Central Plains and keep the forecast dry for the first half of
next week. A more zonal upper level flow pattern will work to
initiate a gradual warming trend from Sunday through Tuesday, with
high temperatures reaching the low 60s by Tuesday. Early
indications are that our next chance at rain or snow will come by
mid-week as a surface trough moves over mid-America. Downslope
flow will keep daily high temperatures mild for the time of year,
so most precip that falls during the day will be rain, but with
temperatures dropping overnight both Tuesday and Wednesday nights,
a slight chance of snow in central Kansas cannot be ruled out.
Early indications are that the moisture is likely to stick around
bringing another slight chance of snow/rain to the area towards
the end of the week next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 526 PM CST Thu Feb 22 2018

Light rain and drizzle with some pockets of light freezing rain
and drizzle may linger into the early evening hours across
portions of central/south central KS before lifting north and east
away from the area. There is some concern that ceilings and
visibilities may lower through the night impacting much of the
area with LIFR/VLIFR toward morning. VFR is expected to return by
late morning/early afternoon with light and variable winds
becoming east/northeast through the day.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 238 PM CST Thu Feb 22 2018

With multiple rounds of precipitation over the next few days and
precipitation already on the ground, fire weather concerns are
expected to be minimal through the weekend. Warmer temperatures
and increasing winds may produce some areas of increased fire
danger to start the week next week in central Kansas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    31  46  33  50 /  20  10  40  50
Hutchinson      29  44  30  47 /  20  10  40  50
Newton          29  44  31  46 /  30  10  50  50
ElDorado        33  46  34  49 /  30   0  50  50
Winfield-KWLD   32  48  36  52 /  30  10  40  60
Russell         29  42  26  42 /  10   0  50  50
Great Bend      29  43  28  45 /  10  10  40  40
Salina          30  43  28  44 /  30  10  40  50
McPherson       30  43  29  46 /  20  10  50  50
Coffeyville     35  49  39  59 /  50  20  80  60
Chanute         35  48  37  55 /  60  10  80  50
Iola            32  47  36  54 /  60  10  80  50
Parsons-KPPF    35  49  39  57 /  60  20  80  60

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for KSZ032-
033-047>053-067-068-082-083-091-092.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MWM
SYNOPSIS...TAV
SHORT TERM...TAV
LONG TERM...TAV
AVIATION...MWM
FIRE WEATHER...TAV



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