Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 310507
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1207 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PLEASANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION FOR SUNDAY/MONDAY...AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS KANSAS THIS PERIOD. MEANWHILE
MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING SOME ELEVATED MOISTURE LIFTING OVER A MID-
LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY
MONDAY MORNING...WHICH COULD SPARK OFF SOME ELEVATED SHOWERS AND
STORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A LITTLE MORE ON TUESDAY ALONG WITH
INCREASING SOUTH WIND SPEEDS...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
FURTHER EAST AWAY FROM KANSAS WITH TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A PATTERN CHANGE FOR THE
REGION WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MAINTAINING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
STATES. THIS WILL WARM UP THE LOW AND MID-LEVEL TEMPS WHICH IS
SOMETHING WE HAVE NOT SEEN SO FAR THIS SPRING SEASON. THIS WILL GIVE
WAY TO WARMER TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY FOR LATER IN THE WEEK WITH
SOME UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES POSSIBLE. THE EXPANSION OF MID-
LEVEL WARMING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL ALSO STRENGTHEN THE ELEVATED
MIXED LAYER...WHICH COULD CAP/INHIBIT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE DAY AND FOCUS ACTIVITY TO THE EDGE OF THE CAP DURING
THE NIGHT TIME HOURS. THE BETTER CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
AFFECT MAINLY CENTRAL KANSAS.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1207 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015

AS EXPECTED LOW CEILINGS ARE THE MAIN AVIATION FORECAST CONCERNS
FOR THE NEAR TERM. STRATUS HAS CONTINUED TO BUILD DOWNWARD THROUGH
THE LATE EVENING AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DROP DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT ALL
TERMINALS BUT KRSL. THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STRATUS IS FLIRTING
WITH KSLN/KICT BUT EXPECT THOSE TERMINALS TO BE MVFR FOR MUCH OF
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. LIGHT WINDS WILL PERSIST AND BECOME EASTERLY AND
SOUTHEASTERLY DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    56  78  61  82 /  10  10   0  10
HUTCHINSON      56  78  61  83 /  10  20  10  10
NEWTON          54  77  60  80 /  10  10  10  10
ELDORADO        54  76  60  81 /  10  10   0  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   55  77  60  82 /  10  10   0  10
RUSSELL         56  80  62  84 /  30  20  10  10
GREAT BEND      57  80  61  84 /  20  20  10  10
SALINA          56  78  61  83 /  20  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       55  78  60  82 /  10  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     52  77  60  80 /  10  10   0  10
CHANUTE         52  75  60  80 /  10  10  10  10
IOLA            53  74  60  79 /  10  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    53  76  60  80 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$


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