Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 152010
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
310 PM CDT Tue Aug 15 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Tue Aug 15 2017

Main challenge is convective trends this evening thru Wednesday.
MCV over northern Oklahoma is progged by short term models to move
northeast across southern/eastern Kansas through early tonight.
Despite an associated shield of mid/high clouds, diurnal heating
and surface dew points in the lower 70s has resulted in MLCAPE
values in excess of 2000 j/kg over much of southern Kansas ahead
of the mid-level feature. This should foster an up-tick for
scattered convection this evening across the southern half of the
forecast area. A few strong storms will be possible, mainly closer
to the Oklahoma border where modest bulk shear around 35kts may
persist into the early evening. Some locally heavy rainfall can
also be expected along/east of the turnpike corridor early
tonight where moisture transport ramps up a bit in corridor of
higher precipitable water. Late tonight chances for convection
are expected to increase further north across central Kansas as
forcing for ascent increases ahead of the main upper trof moving
into the central Rockies. Some challenges also for Wednesday,
depending on the affect of early morning convection on the
position of the effective surface front moving into
central/eastern Kansas. For now will plan on the front being
situated along the turnpike corridor at late afternoon which
should focus the higher PoPs across the Flint Hills/southeast
Kansas during Wednesday evening. Strong instability and modest
shear combo may support some severe storms mainly east of the
turnpike on Wednesday per the going forecast.

Despite drier, more stable air behind the front for Thursday,
temperatures will remain seasonably warm. A fairly robust upper
trof will approach from the northwest on Friday, moving across
the Upper Midwest/Lower Ohio Valley Friday night/Saturday. This
will bring another cold front south across the area with modest
precip/convective chances on Friday/Friday night.

Darmofal

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Tue Aug 15 2017

Upper ridging will prevail across the southern Plains with a
rather progressive westerly flow regime along the northern tier of
states through the weekend. This looks to portend to a dry
Saturday and Sunday with temperatures a bit above seasonal climo.
There is some consensus in the medium range by early next week for
a bit more upper troughing across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes
which may allow a cold front to sag south into Kansas for at least
slight precip/convective chances.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Tue Aug 15 2017

Low confidence forecast. Models have a great variety of solutions
for convective evolution during this period. Given the MCV in
northern OK per satellite/radar, VCTS appears warranted at KCNU
by mid afternoon and into the evening. Remainder of sites are
less clear and have opted to keep them dry for now. The next
issue is the front which will move in from the northwest later
tonight and on Wednesday. This will likely generate another round
of storms and have included VCTS to account for this. VFR conditions
are expected outside of storms. -Howerton

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    72  90  67  88 /  50  50  40   0
Hutchinson      71  89  65  88 /  40  40  30   0
Newton          71  88  65  87 /  40  50  50   0
ElDorado        72  88  66  87 /  50  60  60   0
Winfield-KWLD   73  91  68  88 /  60  60  60   0
Russell         69  86  61  88 /  60  40  20   0
Great Bend      69  87  62  87 /  50  40  10   0
Salina          72  89  65  89 /  60  50  30   0
McPherson       71  88  64  88 /  40  40  40   0
Coffeyville     74  89  70  88 /  50  60  60  10
Chanute         74  88  70  87 /  40  60  70  10
Iola            73  88  69  86 /  40  60  70  10
Parsons-KPPF    74  89  70  87 /  50  60  70  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KED
LONG TERM...KED
AVIATION...PJH



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