Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 290904
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
304 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 304 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

IN THE UPPER LEVELS...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SHORTWAVE ENERGY
IS MOVING OUT OF NORTHEAST KS AND IS APPROACHING THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ANOTHER IMPULSE IS QUICKLY DIVING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...COLD ADVECTION HAS
COMMENCED OVER THE PLAINS. TOUGH TO PICK OUT WHERE EXACTLY THE
COLD FRONT IS LOCATED AS THERE ISN`T MUCH BAROCLINICITY TO KEY ON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING WITH A SURGE OF LOW
CLOUDS AFFECTING AT LEAST THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA. EVEN THOUGH TEMPS TODAY WILL BE MUCH COLDER THAN THE LAST
FEW DAYS...THEY WILL STILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES. ON FRI AN UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO COME ON SHORE OVER
SOUTHERN CA/BAJA. THIS WILL PUSH THE SURFACE HIGH EAST WHICH WILL
START TO SETUP MOISTURE ADVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

LIGHT RAIN WILL COMMENCE FROM SW TO NORTHEAST FRI NIGHT AS
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION INCREASES. AT THIS
POINT FAIRLY CONFIDENT THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP WILL
REMAIN AS LIQUID FRI NIGHT...WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLY MIXING
IN FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 400. LIGHT PRECIP IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY SAT WITH THE MAJORITY OF IT
STILL EXPECTED TO BE LIQUID DUE TO WARM ADVECTION PROCESSES
REMAINING. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF STILL AGREE ON TRACKING
SHORTWAVE ENERGY OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS SAT NIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS ARCTIC AIR WILL START TO
SPILL SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA WHICH WILL TURN ANY PRECIP OVER TO ALL
SNOW. SO WHILE THERE MAYBE SOME LIGHT SNOW MIXED IN AT TIMES PRIOR
TO SAT NIGHT...FEEL THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE ACCUMULATION THAT
OCCURS WITH THIS EVENT WILL COME SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING WHEN
THE POLAR AIR SURGES SOUTH. THE MOST LIKELY LOCATIONS TO SEE SOME
ACCUMULATION LOOKS TO BE NORTH OF HIGHWAY 400 AND POSSIBLY INTO
THE FLINT HILLS. THE GFS WOULD RESULT IN MORE SNOW COMPARED TO THE
ECMWF AS IT DIGS THE SHORTWAVE FURTHER SOUTH.

ANY SNOW IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY COME TO AN END BY SUN AFTERNOON
AS ARCTIC AIR CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH. IF THE GFS WOULD
VERIFY...HIGHS ON SUN WOULD STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 20S...WITH
THE ECMWF NOT QUITE AS ROBUST WITH THE COLD AIR. GIVEN THE TRACK
RECORD OF THE GFS WITH ARCTIC AIR...WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED IF IT
TURNS OUT TO BE CORRECT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW LOOKS TO SETUP OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING
WAVE. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE FOR MON. THE BIG QUESTION FOR NEXT WEEK WILL BE HOW FAR
SOUTH THE EXTREMELY COLD POLAR AIR MAKES IT. CONFIDENCE IS VERY
HIGH THAT THIS AIR WILL AFFECT THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND COULD POSSIBLY SPILL THIS FAR SOUTH FOR TUE
NIGHT INTO WED.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

LOW MVFR CEILINGS ARE QUICKLY MOVING SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING. THEY
ARE CURRENTLY NEAR I-80 IN NEBRASKA AND TRACKING THEM THEY SHOULD
BE NEAR KRSL/KSLN BETWEEN 08/09Z. GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO OCCURRING
THIS EVENING ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS THROUGHOUT THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. WINDS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE SLACKING...MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD
RISE TO VFR BY AFTERNOON AND SCATTER OUT. WINDS WILL SIGNIFICANTLY
DECREASE AFTER SUNSET THURSDAY NIGHT.

BILLINGS WRIGHT


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    50  24  46  33 /   0   0  10  60
HUTCHINSON      48  24  47  31 /   0   0  10  70
NEWTON          49  23  46  32 /   0   0  10  50
ELDORADO        49  24  46  33 /   0   0   0  40
WINFIELD-KWLD   52  24  47  34 /   0   0   0  50
RUSSELL         48  22  47  31 /   0   0  10  70
GREAT BEND      50  24  47  31 /   0   0  10  70
SALINA          48  22  46  33 /   0   0  10  60
MCPHERSON       48  22  46  32 /   0   0  10  60
COFFEYVILLE     51  24  46  33 /   0   0   0  30
CHANUTE         49  22  45  33 /   0   0   0  30
IOLA            48  21  44  32 /   0   0   0  30
PARSONS-KPPF    49  22  46  32 /   0   0   0  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$


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