Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 161742
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1142 AM CST Fri Feb 16 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 338 AM CST Fri Feb 16 2018

Today:
Strong cold front that had moved S/SE across Southern KS early
Thu Eve was crossing the Red River at 2 AM CST. North winds
sustained from 20 to 30 mph, with 35 to 40 mph gusts have sent
temperatures tumbling with areas along the Nebraska state line
approaching the lower 20s while areas along the KS/OK border have
dropped to near 40. Temps are drawing the greatest attention. As
the fairly large surface high which at 2 AM CST was centered along
the SD/Nebraska state line continues to move SE, the N winds
would diminish quickly this morning with S-SE flow returning just
as quickly to most of Western & Central KS this afternoon. Coupled
with clearing skies, highs should recover sufficiently for highs
to reach the lower 40s across KICT Country.

Tonight-Sat Night:
In response to the onsetting S/SW lower-deck flow moist advection
would increase, especially across Southeast KS as a mid-level
shortwave strengthens while it scoots SE across KS late tonight &
Sat morning. The greatest chances for a wintry mix of light rain &
light snow should arrive Southeast KS ~3 AM with a change to light
rain Sat morning. The rapid E/SE movement of the mid-level short
wave, which should cross the MS Valley Sat afternoon, would shift
all precipitation east of KS by early Sat afternoon as the next
cold front crosses KS on Sat. Compressional warming induced by the
approaching front would result in a very warm afternoon. This next
cold front won`t be as strong as its predecessor & in fact would
dissipate as it crosses the KS/MO line Sat night. A lower-deck
trof that`ll develop from near the WY/Nebraska line to Eastern NM
would enable S/SW flow to quickly return to the southern & central
plains late Sat night.

Sun-Sunday Night:
The quickly returning southerly flow will induce moist advection,
especially across the eastern half of the region. Mid-upper
divergence is not impressive & as such thunderstorm potential now
appears feeble.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 328 AM CST Fri Feb 16 2018

Mon & Mon night:
Yet another, & strong, cold front is scheduled to cross KS on Mon
& would shunt the greatest shower (& perhaps a few thunderstorms)
across Eastern KS Mon afternoon. Mon night, the cold advection
would be sufficient to induce a quick changeover to light snow in
most areas (The exception would be Southeast KS.) Mon night,
however minimal accumulation is anticipated. By now anemometers
may be dizzy from all these wind shifts.

Tue & Tue night:
Post frontal precipitation (which should change to light/light
snow mixture Tue evening) should clear Southeast KS Tue evening.

Wed-Thu:
Dry weather with somewhat moderating temperatures are anticipated
thru the middle of next week as high pressure dominates.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1128 AM CST Fri Feb 16 2018

High pressure is over the area for the first part of this forecast
which is diminishing the wind speeds. Another frontal boundary
will move through early Saturday. There will be a change in the
directional component of the wind. Low level wind shear has been
indicated in the models for KRSL, KSLN and KGBD around 10-12Z.
Models differ on its impact, but the decision was made to at least
insert it for now and let the next issuances make adjustments.
VFR conditions are expected. There is a window of time around 12Z
when low level moisture moves northward which could bring in MVFR
ceilings; soundings suggest that this will only be for KICT and
KCNU. This may need to be expanded upon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 542 AM CST Fri Feb 16 2018

GFDI will be very high on Saturday roughly west of i-35 as south
winds increase. The threat expands area wide on Sunday due to south
winds increasing ahead of the next cold front. Very high GFDI
values are expected to persist on Monday in southeast Kansas
until the cold front moves through. -Howerton

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    42  30  60  35 /   0   0  10   0
Hutchinson      40  27  59  34 /   0   0   0   0
Newton          40  28  58  34 /   0   0  10   0
ElDorado        41  30  58  35 /   0  10  10   0
Winfield-KWLD   43  31  60  36 /   0  10  10   0
Russell         41  25  58  34 /   0   0   0   0
Great Bend      41  26  58  35 /   0   0   0   0
Salina          40  27  57  34 /   0   0   0   0
McPherson       39  27  57  34 /   0   0   0   0
Coffeyville     42  32  59  33 /   0  30  40   0
Chanute         41  30  58  33 /   0  20  30   0
Iola            40  29  57  33 /   0  10  30   0
Parsons-KPPF    41  32  58  34 /   0  20  40   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EPS
LONG TERM...EPS
AVIATION...VJP
FIRE WEATHER...PJH


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