Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 220455
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1155 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

IN THE UPPER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS WITH A TROUGH OFF THE SOUTHERN CA COAST. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SMALL BUT INTENSE IMPULSE TRACKING OVER
NORTHERN MT. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE IS SITUATED OVER
WESTERN SD WITH LEE TROUGHING EXTENDING DOWN THROUGH EASTERN NM.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 750 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

TEMPS CONTINUE TO FALL OFF THIS EVENING...SO WILL LET THE CURRENT
HEAT ADVISORY GO.  CURRENT CONVECTION OVER WRN KS CONTINUES TO
FESTER TO THE WEST OF KDDC. THINK MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE
SOME CIRRUS BLOWOFF FROM THIS CONVECTION...BUT EXPECT MOST OF THIS
CONVECTION TO REMAIN WELL WEST OF THE AREA...AS MID LEVEL STEERING
WINDS ARE WEAK AS MOVE FURTHER EAST. ALSO 850-700H MOISTURE
TRANSPORT ALSO DIMINISHES LATER THIS EVENING...WHICH WILL DIMINISH
THE CONVECTION BY MIDNIGHT.

KETCHAM

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

A FEW STORMS MAY AFFECT WESTERN KS EARLY THIS EVENING IN RESPONSE
TO BEING UNDER THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE SW CONUS MONSOONAL
MOISTURE/ENERGY WHICH SHOWS UP NICELY ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE
MORE SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY TONIGHT WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THE SHORTWAVE IMPULSE TO TRACK OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TONIGHT INTO TUE WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS WITH THIS FEATURE EXPECTED TO BE JUST NORTH OF
I-70 BY 00Z WED. CONFIDENCE IN STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT
IS LOW DUE TO CAPPING AND LACK OF LARGE SCALE FORCING. FEEL THAT
IF THERE IS ANY ACTIVITY IT MAYBE JUST BEHIND THE FRONT...CLOSER
TO THE 850-700MB BAROCLINIC ZONE. ALSO WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED IF
THERE IS A CLUSTER OF STORMS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS TUE EVENING DUE
TO UPSLOPE PROCESSES AND THEN OVER NORTHEAST KS WHERE CAPPING WILL
BE MINIMAL.

THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE
PUSHING SOUTH AS IT SLOWLY WASHES OUT AND WILL BE SITUATED SOUTH
OF THE KS/OK BORDER BY 18Z WED. DUE TO ABUNDANT CAPPING...NOT
EXPECTING MUCH ALONG THE FRONT AS IT PUSHES SOUTH...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SE KS WHICH MAY GET IN ON SOME REMNANT MORNING
CONVECTION.

CURRENT HEAT ADVISORY LOOKS ON TRACK FOR TUE. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF WE NEED TO INCLUDE A ROW OF COUNTIES SOUTH IF
DEWPOINTS ACT LIKE TODAY AND DON`T MIX OUT. THE COLD FRONT WILL
BRING TEMPS BACK DOWN CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR WED WITH A REINFORCING
SHOT OF COOLER AIR WED NIGHT KEEPING TEMPS DOWN FOR THU.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

THE CENTRAL AND MOST OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL GET INTO NW FLOW
ALOFT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER RIDGE GETS PUSHED
SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER WARM-UP COMMENCING FRI AND
CONTINUING INTO SAT. THE GFS THEN BRINGS A STRONG SHORTWAVE OUT OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. IF THIS
HOLDS TRUE IT WOULD RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN FOR THE START
OF THE WORK WEEK. HOWEVER...DID NOT GET THE 12Z ECMWF WHICH
DECREASES CONFIDENCE IN THIS SOLUTION. AS FAR AS PRECIP CHANCES GO...THE
MAIN BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA WHICH IS WHERE THE HIGHER POPS WILL BE SITUATED FOR FRI-SUN.
BUT WITH NORTHWEST FLOW...WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED IF SOME WEAK UPPER
ENERGY COMES OUT OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND AFFECTS THE AREA
FOR SAT-SUN. IT JUST SEEMS LIKE IT`S TOUGH TO REMAIN COMPLETELY DRY
IN A NW FLOW PATTERN.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1154 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.  THE ONLY CONCERN WILL BE SOUTHERLY WINDS DIMINISHING
OVERNIGHT...THEN BECOMING GUSTY FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS TUE.

A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO VENTURE INTO NRN KS AFTER
00Z/WED. LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HEATING AND CONVERGENCE ALONG
THIS FRONT MAY LEAD TO ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING WELL TO THE
NORTH OF I-70 FOR THE EVENING HOURS.  NOT SURE HOW FAR SOUTH THIS
CONVECTIVE CHANCE WILL GET...UNLESS A SIGNIFICANT COLD POOL CAN HELP
PUSH IT SOUTH INTO CENTRAL KS AFTER 02Z/WED.  SO WILL LEAVE A VCTS
MENTION OUT OF THE KRSL/KSLN TAF SITES FOR NOW...BUT COULD SEE IT
ADDED TO LATER TAF ISSUANCES...IF CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT
BECOMES MORE DEFINED.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MAY PUSH INTO CENTRAL KS BY AROUND 06Z/WED AND
FURTHER SOUTH LATE TUE NIGHT.  BUT WILL NOT SHIFT ANY WINDS...UNTIL
LATER FORECASTS. WILL ALSO KEEP ANY PRECIP MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS
FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS SRN KS AS WELL.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    75  99  75  96 /  10  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      74 101  74  95 /  10  10  10  10
NEWTON          74 100  74  93 /  10  10  20  20
ELDORADO        74  99  74  93 /  10  10  20  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   74  98  75  95 /  10  10  10  10
RUSSELL         74 102  73  92 /  10  10  20  20
GREAT BEND      74 102  73  92 /  10  10  20  20
SALINA          76 105  75  93 /  10  10  30  30
MCPHERSON       74 103  75  93 /  10  10  20  20
COFFEYVILLE     72  97  74  93 /  10  10  20  20
CHANUTE         72  97  74  92 /  10  10  20  20
IOLA            72  97  74  91 /  10  10  20  20
PARSONS-KPPF    72  97  74  93 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$







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