Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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542
FXUS63 KICT 292346
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
646 PM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 312 PM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

Tonight-Thursday:
Nearly stacked low will slowly move east through Thursday. Expect
an uptick in storms until sunset as instability increases in warm
sector where surface heating has/will occur. Decent wind profile
and about 1000 J/Kilogram CAPE now and slightly more over the next
1-2 hours, will likely result in several strong and a few severe
storms in Southeast KS. With time, wind profile becomes less
favorable for tornadoes. Extensive clouds will persist on Thursday
with a few thunderstorms under cool pool aloft on Thursday. Given
clouds, warmup on Thursday will be limited.

Friday-Saturday:

Dry weather expected on Friday as upper ridging traverses the area.
GFS is considerably more agressive with moisture return/precipitation
on Saturday, but suspicion is that onset is way too early, more
likely developing/confined to western third of forecast area
through sunset Saturday. Precipitation becomes increasingly
likely Saturday night, with increasing support aloft and front
moving into the area. -Howerton

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 312 PM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

Closed low moves south of the area to start the week with some
uncertainty how far north to spread precipitation. Another system
will move into the area on Tuesday-Tuesday night, but suspect GFS
is a bit too fast/agressive with the QPF early on Tuesday.
-Howerton

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 645 PM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

A large storm system will lead to poor aviation conditions for
the next 24 hours, as this system lifts over the area tonight with
IFR cigs and pockets of LIFR prevailing across much of the area
through the upcoming period. Could see some scattered storms in the
warm sector of the system for SE KS for a few more hours, but the
main concern will be the wrap around showers in the comma head of
the upper low as it moves slowly to the east overnight. This will
lead to a wind shift to the north-northwest with some gusts of 25 to
30 knots. Low clouds will linger into the morning hours on Thu with
some breaks late in the day on Thursday with portions of Central KS
actually seeing cigs becoming MVFR.

Ketcham

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 312 PM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

Periodic rounds of precipitation and increasing greenup will
result in limited fire threats this period. -Howerton

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    41  52  38  60 /  60  50   0   0
Hutchinson      40  52  36  57 /  80  50   0   0
Newton          41  50  36  57 /  80  70   0   0
ElDorado        42  49  37  59 /  80  70   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   43  52  37  63 /  50  50   0   0
Russell         40  53  36  53 /  80  10   0   0
Great Bend      40  54  35  54 /  80  10   0   0
Salina          40  51  36  55 /  90  70   0   0
McPherson       40  51  36  56 /  80  60   0   0
Coffeyville     48  53  39  64 /  50  60  10   0
Chanute         48  52  40  61 /  60  80  20   0
Iola            48  51  40  59 /  60  80  20   0
Parsons-KPPF    48  52  40  63 /  60  70  10   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PJH
LONG TERM...PJH
AVIATION...Ketcham
FIRE WEATHER...PJH



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