Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 281742
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1242 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1132 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

UPDATED TO INCREASE POPS OVER SE KS AND TO DECREASE HIGHS TODAY.

VERY EVIDENT MCV ROTATING ACROSS NORTHEAST OK WHICH IS GENERATING
A LARGE AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN OVER SE KS. THIS LARGE AREA
OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ALSO
INCREASED QPF FOR TODAY OVER SE KS BASED ON REPORTS WE HAVE BEEN
RECEIVING. KNOCKED DOWN HIGHS A FEW DEGREES AREA WIDE WITH THE
BIGGEST CHANGE OVER SE KS WHERE PRECIP WILL LINGER THE LONGEST.

LAWSON

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

SUMMARY: A FEW MORE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH DRIER WEATHER FROM THE WEEKEND THROUGH
MID NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND.

CHALLENGING FORECAST TODAY...WITH CURRENTLY MULTIPLE THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEXES AFFECTING THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. ONE COMPLEX IS
CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE FLINT HILLS CORRIDOR...AND ANOTHER IS
OVER THE RED RIVER REGION OF SOUTHWEST OK/NORTHERN TX. A BACK-
BUILDING MCS IS CURRENTLY FESTERING OVER SOUTHWEST KS. BEST GUESS
AT THIS POINT IS CURRENT MCS WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY AROUND 7 AM. HOWEVER...WITH CONTINUED 900-800MB
WARM ADVECTION AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT...THINKING OFF- AND-ON
ACTIVITY COULD FESTER OVER THE REST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
MORNING IN WAKE OF THIS CURRENT MCS. FOR THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FORECAST IS ANOTHER ROUND
OF STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION FIRING ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF
KS/OK IN THE VICINITY OF A DRYLINE/LEE TROUGH...AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. ACTIVITY MAY TEND TO
INITIATE A BIT EARLIER TODAY GIVEN EARLIER SHORTWAVE TIMING.
REGARDLESS...AS THESE STORMS PROGRESS EAST AND
MERGE/CLUSTER...ANOTHER COMPLEX OR TWO OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED THIS EVENING OVERNIGHT OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
KS....HIGHEST CONFIDENCE GENERALLY ALONG/WEST OF THE FLINT HILLS.
HIGHEST THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE OVER WESTERN KS WHERE
BETTER INSTABILITY AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES RESIDE. ALTHOUGH
ISOLATED SEVERE CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
STATE...PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAIN.

AFTER A POSSIBLE BREAK IN THE ACTION FRIDAY MORNING...A FINAL
ROUND OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON-
NIGHT...AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST...AMIDST INCREASING UPPER SUPPORT. WHILE THE THREAT FOR
ORGANIZED/WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS LOW...A FEW SEVERE
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THE MAIN THREATS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO BE
LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAIN.

KLEINSASSER

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

OTHER THAN THE POTENTIAL FOR LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS OVER
EAST/SOUTHEAST KS SATURDAY...THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT DRY
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL FROM THE WEEKEND THROUGH AT LEAST MID-
WEEK...AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS MID- AMERICA. AFTER A FEW
COOLER DAYS SAT- SUN...LOW-LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT A
WARMING TREND BY NEXT WEEK...WITH DAYTIME READINGS LIKELY CLIMBING
WELL INTO THE 80S BY TUE-WED...MAYBE EVEN APPROACHING 90F WEST OF
I-135. DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION OF A SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY CLOSED LOW...MID/UPPER FLOW IS EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY
BECOME MORE WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS
BY MID-LATE WEEK. THIS SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN FAVORS INCREASED
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE EVENING-
OVERNIGHT HOURS FROM CENTRAL KS ON WEST/NORTHWARD.

KLEINSASSER

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL ONCE AGAIN BE CONVECTIVE TRENDS.

MCV OVER NORTHEAST OK RESULTED IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS
OVER SE KS WITH THIS AREA OF CONVECTION MOVING EAST AND SHOULD
EXIT SE KS BY 20Z. WE SHOULD SEE A BREAK IN SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AS STORMS ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP OUT
OVER FAR WESTERN KS. THESE STORMS WILL WORK EAST AND SHOULD AFFECT
THE FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. FAIRLY CONFIDENT THEY WILL NOT
BE AS WIDESPREAD AS THEY WERE LAST NIGHT BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH
THAT WE WILL AT LEAST SEE SOME ACTIVITY. SHOULD ALSO SEE LOWER
CEILING DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND FOR NOW JUST RAN WITH MVFR LEVELS
AT MOST LOCATIONS AROUND 03Z.

LAWSON

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

WITH A FEW MORE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO
GO...YESTERDAY`S DAY SHIFT MADE AN EXCELLENT DECISION TO HOIST A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREAWIDE THROUGH FRIDAY EARLY EVENING. ONLY
CHANGES MADE WERE TO START THE WATCH OVER SOUTHEAST KS NOW INSTEAD
OF AT 7 AM...AND TO EXTEND THE WATCH FOR MAINLY SOUTH-
CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

KLEINSASSER

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

UNOFFICIALLY AS OF THIS WRITING...WICHITA MAY RAINFALL HAS
ACCUMULATED 11.69 INCHES...2ND ALL-TIME (SINCE 1889)...SURPASSING
11.22 INCHES IN MAY 1935. 1ST PLACE IS 13.14 INCHES IN MAY 2008.
WITH A FEW MORE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING...THIS RECORD MAY BE IN JEOPARDY. SALINA HAS STRONG
POTENTIAL TO BREAK INTO THE TOP 5 WETTEST MAY`S..AND CHANUTE HAS
POTENTIAL TO BREAK INTO THE TOP 10.

KLEINSASSER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    76  65  78  61 /  30  50  60  60
HUTCHINSON      76  64  78  59 /  30  50  60  50
NEWTON          75  64  76  59 /  30  50  60  60
ELDORADO        76  65  77  61 /  50  50  60  60
WINFIELD-KWLD   76  66  79  62 /  60  40  60  60
RUSSELL         77  61  78  55 /  40  60  50  40
GREAT BEND      77  62  78  56 /  40  60  50  40
SALINA          77  64  78  58 /  30  60  50  50
MCPHERSON       76  64  77  58 /  30  50  60  50
COFFEYVILLE     75  67  79  64 / 100  50  60  70
CHANUTE         74  66  78  64 / 100  50  60  70
IOLA            75  66  78  63 / 100  50  60  70
PARSONS-KPPF    75  67  78  64 / 100  50  60  70

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR KSZ052-053-
067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR KSZ032-033-047>051.

&&

$$


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