Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 260443
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1143 PM CDT MON APR 25 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT MON APR 25 2016

A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY REMAINS LOCATED GENERALLY ALONG I-35
WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S TO THE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY.  NOT
EXPECTING THIS BOUNDARY TO MOVE MUCH FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND
ACTUALLY EXPECT IT TO BEGIN TO PUSH BACK TO THE NORTH THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT...AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS MORE TO SW AHEAD OF THE
MAIN STORM SYSTEM EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE ROCKIES...AND THE LOW
LEVEL JET INCREASES. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE AFTERNOON INTO
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AS THE ELEVATED MIXED LAYER KEEPS MOST
LOCATIONS CAPPED. AS THE WARM FRONT PUSHES BACK TOWARDS THE NORTH
AND THE LOW LEVEL JET (LLJ) INCREASES LATE THIS EVENING...AN
ELEVATED UNSTABLE AIRMASS (MUCAPE VALUES OF 1600-2500 J/KG) WILL
EXIST RIGHT ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...AS 310-315K
ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES OVER THE TOP OF THIS INVERSION. LATEST HI-
RES MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW A FEW STORMS DEVELOPING TO THE EAST-
NORTHEAST OF KICT POSSIBLY AFTER 03Z IN THIS UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND
DEFINITELY AFTER 06Z. GIVEN THIS AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
INCREASING WITH THE LLJ...THINK SOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE
STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NORTH OF HIGHWAY
54.

EXPECT THIS WARM FRONT TO CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH EARLY ON
TUE...GENERALLY LOCATED ALONG I-70 BY TUE MORNING.

STILL LOOKING AT A HIGH IMPACT SEVERE WEATHER DAY ON TUESDAY AS A
MID/UPPER TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND TAKES ON A
NEGATIVE TILT AS IT COMES INTO THE PLAINS. LOCATION OF THE WARM
FRONT WILL GENERALLY BE LOCATED ALONG I-70...MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS
SHARPEN THE DRYLINE FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH THE POSITION OF
THE DRYLINE FOR TUE AFTERNOON STILL IN SOME QUESTION....WITH A
TRIPLE EXPECTED IN CENTRAL KS. SOME OF THE NAM-WRF SOLUTIONS PUSH
THE DRYLINE AS FAR EAST AS THE FLINT HILLS...WHILE THE GFS AND
LATEST 1.3KM NAM-NEST KEEPS IT FURTHER WEST...GENERALLY JUST WEST OF
I-135...OR EVEN AS FAR WEST AS HIGHWAY 14. DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES
EAST OF THE DRYLINE IN THE WARM SECTOR ARE PROGGED TO CLIMB INTO THE
68-71 DEGREE RANGE RESULTING IN LCLS AROUND 1000-1400 FT WHILE
MLCAPES CLIMB TO 3400-4200 J/KG. EXPECT CONVERGENCE TO INCREASE
ALONG THIS DRYLINE AFTER 22Z/TUE...WITH THIS CONVERGENCE HELPING TO
ERODE THE CAP.

THE INITIAL STORM MODE STILL APPEARS TO FAVOR DISCRETE SUPERCELL
STORMS GIVEN THE MODERATE TO EXTREME INSTABILITY & ORIENTATION OF
THE DEEPER LAYER (0-6KM/0-8KM) SHEAR (40-50 KTS) VECTORS IN RELATION
TO THE DRYLINE. LATEST HI-RES SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THE DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS MAY BE DELAYED UNTIL THE DRYLINE BEGINS TO RETREAT BACK
THE WEST SOME (WITH INCREASING BACKED WINDS/CONVERGENCE)...BETWEEN
22-00Z. THIS WOULD FAVOR A MORE WESTERLY POSITION OF THE DRYLINE. SO
WOULD PREFER TO GO WITH THE FURTHER WEST MODEL POSITION FOR ANY KIND
OF STORM INITIATION.  NOT EXPECTING NUMEROUS CLOSELY SPACED
SUPERCELLS (THUS SPC`S RELUCTANCE TO GO WITH A HIGH RISK)...BUT A
FEW HIGH END SUPERCELLS WITH ALL FACETS OF SEVERE WEATHER STILL LOOK
POSSIBLE...INCLUDING VERY LARGE/GIANT HAIL AND A FEW STRONG...LONG
TRACK TORNADOES CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA INTO TUE EVENING.
INCREASING MLCAPE CAPES INTO THE EVENING HOURS...SUGGEST A THREAT OF
TORNADOES WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

AFTER 03Z/TUE...SHEAR VECTORS BECOME MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL WHICH WOULD
SUGGEST A RAPID TRANSITION TO A LINEAR CONVECTIVE MODE...WHICH WOULD
SUGGEST MORE OF AN EMBEDDED SUPERCELL THREAT WITHIN A CONVECTIVE
CLUSTER OF STORMS FOR THE LATE EVENING HOURS AND POTENTIALLY
TORNADOES WELL AFTER DARK.

STORMS WILL LIKELY GROW UPSCALE INTO AN NORTHEAST-EASTWARD MOVING
COMPLEX OF STORMS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON TUE BEFORE EXITING
EARLY WED MORNING.

MAINTAINED LOW POPS EARLY ON WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH A POST-FRONTAL
STABLE REGIME IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE AREA...BUT EXPECT ANY KIND
OF PRECIP CHANCE TO END BY WED AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 70S.

EXPECT TO SEE A LULL FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS ON THU...AS A STALLED
COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH THROUGH ON WED...BUT BEGINS TO PUSH BACK
AS A WARM FRONT FOR THU AFTERNOON.  BUT AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES BACK
TO THE NORTH...THINK SOME ELEVATED SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS WILL
PUSH BACK INTO THE AREA FROM SOUTH CENTRAL KS LATE THU NIGHT.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT MON APR 25 2016

UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TOWARD THE END
OF THE WEEK AS THE NEXT VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
THIS WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS
FOR FRI/SAT.  THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL
TO THE REGION AS RICH GULF MOISTURE IS DRAWN NORTH WITH REPEATED
ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS
SYSTEM AS THE LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES ACROSS SW KS FRI NIGHT AND
MOVES INTO CENTRAL KS BY SAT. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR SUGGESTS A
CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA FOR FRI
NIGHT...AND POSSIBLY ACROSS MOST OF SRN KS FOR SAT.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT MON APR 25 2016

MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS WILL BE LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT INTO TUE
MORNING AND LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING STORMS.

RICH MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTH WITH LOW CLOUDS STILL
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. CURRENTLY GOING WITH MVFR OVER
MOST SITES BY 08Z WITH SOME IFR MIXING IN AFTER 10Z. CONFIDENCE IS
MUCH HIGHER IN THE MVFR THAN IFR LEVELS. STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP IN
A FEW HOURS OVER NORTHEAST KS WITH THE BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY
EXPECTED TO STAY NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. SHOULD REMAIN AT
MVFR LEVELS THROUGH ALL OF THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WEST OF I-135 AFTER 21Z. ANY STORM
THAT DEVELOPS TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE
WITH EXTREMELY LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE IN ADDITION TO TORNADOES.

LAWSON

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT MON APR 25 2016

RECENT GREEN-UP AND HIGHER HUMIDITY VALUES WILL KEEP THE
GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER BELOW ELEVATED LEVELS.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    65  83  56  74 /  10  50  60  10
HUTCHINSON      60  82  54  72 /  10  40  50  10
NEWTON          62  81  55  73 /  20  50  70  10
ELDORADO        64  81  58  75 /  20  40  70  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   67  82  58  76 /  10  40  60  10
RUSSELL         56  80  51  68 /  20  40  40  20
GREAT BEND      56  81  50  69 /  10  30  40  10
SALINA          60  82  55  72 /  30  50  70  20
MCPHERSON       61  82  54  72 /  20  50  60  20
COFFEYVILLE     67  81  63  78 /  10  30  70  20
CHANUTE         66  80  62  77 /  20  30  70  20
IOLA            65  80  62  77 /  30  40  70  20
PARSONS-KPPF    67  81  62  78 /  20  30  70  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BDK
LONG TERM...BDK
AVIATION...RBL
FIRE WEATHER...BDK



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