Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 110824
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
324 AM CDT FRI APR 11 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT FRI APR 11 2014

A BROAD TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS WITH A
FEW DIFFERENT DISTURBANCES ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. THESE
DISTURBANCES CAUSED SHOWERS EARLIER IN THE NIGHT OVER NORTHWEST
KANSAS...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SPRINKLE THIS MORNING OVER
CENTRAL KANSAS. WINDS ARE LIGHT AND FROM GENERALLY AN EASTERLY
DIRECTION.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT FRI APR 11 2014

THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE NEAR TERM ARE THE TEMPERATURES...WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED FOR TODAY AND SATURDAY BEFORE A COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT
TODAY AND WILL HELP TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE 70S AND LOW 80S
ACROSS THE REGION. THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW THE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS...BUT OTHER
GUIDANCE...NAM/ECMWF/RUC/HRRR ALL KEEP SOUTHEAST KANSAS DRY. THUS
HAVE REMOVED CHANCES FOR TODAY FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE AS LEE TROUGHING DEEPENS
SATURDAY. THIS WILL HELP TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN WARM WITH HIGHS IN
THE 80S POSSIBLE. THERE ARE CHANCES OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE
WARM SECTOR EARLY SATURDAY...BUT THINK THE BETTER CHANCES WILL BE
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST THAT WAY.

PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ALONG AND NEAR THE WARM
FRONT OVER NORTHERN KANSAS AND THE COLD FRONT OVER WESTERN KANSAS
SATURDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD EASTWARD
ACROSS THE WHOLE STATE ON SUNDAY...BUT THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE OVER
SOUTHEAST KANSAS ON SUNDAY. THE MOST LIKELY CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL
BE ALONG THE FRONT LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE USED A NON-
DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE FOR SUNDAY FOR THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE BREEZY.

THE OTHER CONCERN IS THE CHANCES FOR SNOW BEHIND THE FRONT. THE
AIR BEHIND THIS NEXT FRONT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH THROUGH THE COLUMN
THAT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA.
ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT AND MAINLY ON GRASSY SURFACES
BEFORE MELTING COMPLETELY.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT FRI APR 11 2014

A SECOND WAVE WILL PUSH IN ON MONDAY QUICKLY BEHIND THE ONE THAT
WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY. THIS WILL KEEP
THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION INTO MONDAY...BUT THE BETTER
CHANCES...ESPECIALLY FOR SNOW WILL BE ACROSS THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE SOUTH OVER WESTERN KANSAS AND INTO OKLAHOMA.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK INTO THE 50S BY MONDAY AND THEN SLOWLY
WARM THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE NEAR NORMAL MID
60S.

THE CONCERN WITH THIS COLD AIR SURGE...IS THE TIME OF YEAR AND THE
GROWING SEASON. MANY FLOWERS AND PLANTS HAVE BEGUN TO BLOOM AND
THIS COLD SURGE WILL CAUSE FROST AND OR A FREEZE TO BE A CONCERN.
WATCH THIS PERIOD IF SENSITIVE VEGETATION IS A CONCERN. PERIODS TO
WATCH WILL BE MONDAY MORNING AND TUESDAY MORNING.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CDT THU APR 10 2014

VERY WEAK/DIFFUSE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER ACROSS NRN MO THRU FRI
AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD CAUSE SFC WINDS TO SHIFT FROM N/NE TO SE AS THE
NIGHT PROGRESSES WITH SPEEDS <=10KTS. ALL AREAS TO REMAIN VFR WITH
CLOUDINESS PREDOMINANTLY 10,000 TO 15,000FT ALTOSTRATUS/ALTOCU.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT FRI APR 11 2014

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TODAY WHICH WILL KEEP GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER
LOWER...BUT INCREASING WINDS ON SATURDAY WILL CAUSE FIRE DANGER TO
BE VERY HIGH. OF COURSE IF ANY SHOWERS BREAK OUT ON SATURDAY
DURING THE DAY...THIS WOULD DIMINISH THE VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER
CONCERNS.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    81  57  82  64 /  10  10  20  20
HUTCHINSON      80  56  82  62 /  10  10  20  20
NEWTON          78  56  80  63 /  10  10  20  20
ELDORADO        79  57  81  63 /  10  10  20  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   82  58  83  64 /  10  10  20  20
RUSSELL         79  56  82  58 /  10  10  20  30
GREAT BEND      78  55  82  58 /  10  10  20  20
SALINA          79  56  81  61 /  10  10  20  30
MCPHERSON       78  56  80  62 /  10  10  20  30
COFFEYVILLE     83  59  81  62 /  10  10  10  20
CHANUTE         81  57  80  62 /  10  10  10  30
IOLA            79  56  79  63 /  10  10  10  30
PARSONS-KPPF    82  58  80  62 /  10  10  10  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







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