Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 210452
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1152 PM CDT Mon Mar 20 2017

...Updated for Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 140 PM CDT Mon Mar 20 2017

A strong high pressure system to the North will be pushing off to
the East which is creating a decent cap over the region. This
high pressure will also allow for some CAA that will bring
temperatures down as well. Tomorrow, mid level moisture will be
high enough to keep some clouds in the area which will help keep
temperatures down. Thursday things start to get interesting again.
A strong low pressure system will be moving into the region and
will bring strong WAA into region again. Mid and upper level shear
looks good over much of the Western parts of the CWA but moisture
transport looks dismal. This will make it difficult for
widespread thunderstorms activity to occur. Some isolated severe
thunderstorms will be possible but do not expect widespread
activity due to the lack return flow from the Gulf of Mexico and
low and mid level moisture transport.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 140 PM CDT Mon Mar 20 2017

Friday looks to be the best chance for some decent precipitation
the region has had in the past month. The GFS/ECMWF both indicate
a shot of precipitation in the form of a fast moving line of
showers and thunderstorms. Some isolated sever thunderstorms are
possible during the morning hours Friday. By the afternoon
timeframe, it appears a strong dry slot will come into the CWA
which will shut off the precipitation chances until later in the
evening. By this time, any precipitation that does occur will
likely be on the back side of the low pressure system (deformation
zone precip) which will likely be lighter. All of this activity
is expected to be rather light and fast moving which will likely
keep the precipitation amounts down.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1151 PM CDT Mon Mar 20 2017

Breezy northeast winds will prevail through Tuesday, with
VFR ceilings around 5000 ft AGL gradually increasing across the
region during the day Tuesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 140 PM CDT Mon Mar 20 2017

Fire weather danger will be a little evaluated in the Eastern
portions of the region with a very high fire danger a few hours
this afternoon. By the evening, the temperatures will drop and the
winds will stay out of the North. Additional cloud cover will
help keep the fire danger down for Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    52  60  42  56 /   0  10  20  20
Hutchinson      49  57  39  54 /   0  10  20  20
Newton          51  60  39  53 /   0  10  20  20
ElDorado        53  61  40  55 /   0  10  20  20
Winfield-KWLD   54  64  44  58 /   0  10  20  20
Russell         44  55  35  53 /   0  10  20  10
Great Bend      45  56  36  53 /   0  10  20  10
Salina          47  56  38  54 /   0  10  20  10
McPherson       49  58  38  53 /   0  10  20  20
Coffeyville     57  69  45  57 /   0  20  20  30
Chanute         54  62  42  55 /   0  20  20  20
Iola            54  61  40  54 /   0  20  10  20
Parsons-KPPF    56  66  45  56 /   0  20  20  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ELM
LONG TERM...ELM
AVIATION...ADK
FIRE WEATHER...ELM


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