Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 220914
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
314 AM CST Wed Feb 22 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 309 AM CST Wed Feb 22 2017

Zonal progressive flow will lead to another well above normal temp
day today, as W-SW flow leads to good downslope conditions.
This will lead to max temps almost 20-25 degrees above normal with
very dry conditions expected. (see fire weather section below) Could
even see some temps come close to record numbers for portions of
Central KS this afternoon.

A shortwave moving across the northern plains later today will help
push a cold front into portions of North Central KS by this evening.
This will lead to slightly cooler temps for Thu for portions of
Central KS, with temps south of the stalled frontal boundary
remaining well above normal.

Models continue to show a shortwave is expected to come out of the
Rockies for Thu, with a low pressure area developing over KS for Thu
afternoon.  Models continue to trend a little further north on the
path of this low pressure area, With current trend taking across the
northern half of KS. Models show the stalled frontal boundary in
Central KS pushing gradually back into Neb as a warm front on Thu.
Both solutions suggest that most of the precip with this system will
remain along the KS/Neb border or north of the area.

As the shortwave pushes east on Fri, colder air on the backside of
this system, is expected to plunge south across most of the forecast
area for Fri/Sat, with more seasonal type temps values in the middle
40s for highs and middle 20s for lows.

Ketcham

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 309 AM CST Wed Feb 22 2017

Latest medium range model solutions suggest ridging will build
across the region for the weekend. This will lead to a gradual
warming trend by the end of the weekend.

Zonal flow for the beginning of the week will lead to the warming
trend continuing for Mon/Tue. Consensus forecast suggests that the
warm advection associated with the warming trend may lead to a
chance of showers and isolated storms across southern KS for late
Sun through Mon.

Another shortwave is progged to move into the Rockies toward the end
of the forecast period. This system may bring increasing chances for
precipitation and another surge of cooler air as we head towards the
middle of the week.

Ketcham

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 1109 PM CST Tue Feb 21 2017

VFR conditions will prevail for all TAF sites across
central/southern Kansas during the next 24hrs. Southerly winds
will switch to more of a westerly direction and then to the
northwest across central Kansas. Wind speeds will remain light
across the entire region.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 309 AM CST Wed Feb 22 2017

Good downslope flow from the West and Northwest will
lead to very dry conditions and well above normal temps Today.
Relative humidity levels may fall into the upper teens both days
across Central KS, which will lead to an elevated fire danger, with
high grassland fire danger values expected.

A cold frontal boundary will drop south across the area on Fri,
which will lead to drier air and NW winds across the region. this
will lead to a very high grassland danger for Fri.

Ketcham

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 357 PM CST Mon Feb 20 2017

Wed 2/22/17 Record Highs:

Wichita: 87 In 1996
Russell: 77 In 1982
Salina:  76 In 1982
Chanute: 80 In 1996

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    77  48  74  37 /   0  10  10   0
Hutchinson      78  46  72  34 /   0  10  10   0
Newton          77  47  70  36 /   0  10  10   0
ElDorado        78  48  74  38 /   0   0  10   0
Winfield-KWLD   78  48  76  39 /   0   0   0   0
Russell         76  41  70  30 /   0   0  10  20
Great Bend      77  42  71  30 /   0   0  10  10
Salina          78  44  70  35 /   0   0  10  10
McPherson       78  45  71  34 /   0  10  10  10
Coffeyville     79  49  78  44 /   0   0  10  10
Chanute         78  48  76  41 /   0   0  10  10
Iola            78  48  75  41 /   0   0  10  10
Parsons-KPPF    78  49  77  43 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Ketcham
LONG TERM...Ketcham
AVIATION...CDJ
FIRE WEATHER...Ketcham
CLIMATE...Ketcham


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