Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 240449
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1149 PM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY CROSSING CENTRAL AND
EASTERN COLORADO SHOULD AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY FOR AREAS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE WITH SMALL HAIL AND DOWNBURST WINDS OF 50 MPH OR
SO. STORM COVERAGE SHOULD DECREASE SOMEWHAT AFTER SUNDOWN BUT WILL
LIKELY REMAIN ISOLATED THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY. A
SURFACE TROUGH WILL SLIDE EASTWARD LATER THIS EVENING BUT WILL
SIMPLY MEANDER BACK AND FORTH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY HOWEVER COVERAGE
WILL LIKELY BE MORE WIDESPREAD WITH AFTERNOON HEATING BEING THE MAIN
DRIVER. VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S AND LOWS IN THE MID 70S.

SMITH

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH THE EXTENDED MODELS WITH RESPECT TO THE
TIMING OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DUE THROUGH THE REGION WED/THUR
TIMEFRAME. THE GFS BRINGS THE FRONT THROUGH WED NIGHT WITH THE ECMWF
PULLING IT THROUGH ON THURSDAY. WITH THAT IN MIND...PRECIPITATION
CHANCES DIFFER QUITE A BIT CAUSING UNCERTAINTY WITH EXTENDED POPS.
THE ECMWF LAGS PRECIPITATION THOUGH SOUTHEAST KANSAS FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH THE GFS ENDING ALL PRECIPITATION BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE
HAVE MAINTAINED POPS THROUGH FRIDAY WITH CLEARING BY LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION SHOULD STAY WELL EAST
OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL FINALLY MODERATE SOME
WITH MID 80S EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AND CLIMBING TO NEAR 90
FOR SATURDAY.

SMITH

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE 24-HOUR PERIOD ACROSS THE TERMINALS.
BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS TONIGHT WILL INCREASE AND VEER TO THE
SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. ISOLATED LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS POSSIBLY
IMPACTING KHUT AND KSLN AFTER 22-23Z BUT ANY ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
TO DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND DISSIPATE DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    76  99  74  97 /  10  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      75  99  73  97 /  20  20  20  10
NEWTON          75  99  73  96 /  10  20  20  10
ELDORADO        76  98  74  97 /  10  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   75  99  76  98 /  10  10  10  10
RUSSELL         72  97  69  95 /  20  20  20  20
GREAT BEND      71  96  71  96 /  20  20  20  20
SALINA          75 100  72  97 /  20  20  20  20
MCPHERSON       74  99  72  96 /  20  20  20  20
COFFEYVILLE     74  99  75  98 /  10   0  10   0
CHANUTE         74  98  75  98 /  10   0  10  10
IOLA            73  98  74  97 /  10   0  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    74  99  75  98 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







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