000
FXUS63 KICT 132345
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
645 PM CDT THU JUN 13 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT THU JUN 13 2013

TONIGHT-FRI: DRIER AND SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR MOVED INTO THE REGION
TODAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVED SOUTH INTO OK.  BUT EXPECT THIS "COOL
DOWN" TO BE SHORT LIVED...AS 850-700H WARM ADVECTION AND WARMER
TEMPS AGAIN RETURN TO THE AREA TONIGHT INTO FRI. THIS IS IN RESPONSE
TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING GRADUALLY MOVING INTO THE PLAINS AGAIN FOR
FRI.  THIS WARM ADVECTION/MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL PUSH NORTH INTO
NORTH CEN KS TONIGHT...WITH THE ELEVATED BAROCLINIC ZONE LIFTING TO
ALONG THE KS/NE BORDER...KEEPING ANY ELEVATED SHOWER/STORM CHANCE TO
THE NORTH OF THE AREA. COULD SEE SOME OF THIS CONVECTION TRY TO
PROPAGATE SOUTH INTO NORTHEAST KS...BUT WILL STAY NORTHEAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

THE MAIN CONCERN ON FRI WILL BE A RETURN OF THE HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS...WITH SFC DWPTS INCREASING INTO THE LOWER 70S FOR THE
ERN HALF OF KS. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES ON HOW HOT FRI WILL
GET...WITH NAM/WRF SHOWING TEMPS AGAIN PUSHING CLOSE TO THE CENTURY
MARK. IF YESTERDAYS MAX TEMPS ARE ANY INDICATION...THINK THE NAM HAS
THE RIGHT IDEA AND WILL GE ABOVE MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS CLOSER TO 100
FOR MAX TEMPS.

SAT-SUN: CURRENT MODEL TRENDS SUGGEST THAT THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED
OVER THE PLAINS WILL NOT LAST LONG...AS IT SLOWLY TRANSLATES EAST
EARLY ON SAT. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT AN IMPULSE CURRENTLY
OVER CEN MEXICO WILL DRIFT N-NE ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE AND
NORTHEAST INTO THE PLAINS FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS ON SAT. LOTS OF
INSTABILITY WILL BE LAYING AROUND AS THIS IMPULSE MOVES ACROSS THE
PLAINS. WITH THIS IMPULSE HELPING TO COOL THE ELEVATED MIXED LAYER
ENOUGH FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR SAT
AFTN/EVENING. MODEL FORECASTED INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A FEW
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH A DOWNBURST/MICROBURST CHANCE. BUT BULK
SHEAR AROUND 25-30 KTS WILL LIMIT A WIDESPREAD SVR CHANCE.

A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO DROP SOUTH INTO CEN KS FOR SUN...AS
THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL.  LOTS OF INSTABILITY WILL
BE LOCATED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...AS A PSEUDO TRIPLE
POINT DEVELOPS ALONG I-70 ACROSS CEN KS. GFS DOESNT SHOW MUCH OF A
CAPPING INVERSION FOR SUN AFTN...SO THINK STORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
CEN KS FOR SUN AFTN...WITH STORMS A LITTLE LESS LIKELY FURTHER SOUTH
ACROSS SOUTH CEN KS UNTIL LATE IN THE EVENING...AS LOW LEVEL JET
INCREASES AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES FOR AREAS WEST
OF I-135. GFS DIRECTIONAL SHEAR PROFILES SUGGEST SOME SUPERCELLS
INITIALLY ACROSS CEN KS...BUT THINK AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES
CONVECTION WILL CONGEAL INTO MORE OF A FORWARD PROPAGATING
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX FOR SUN NIGHT. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW A
CLEAR SIGNAL IN THE QPF AND VORTICITY THAT THIS COMPLEX WILL BE
POSSIBLE...WITH THE COMPLEX DROPPING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST SUN NIGHT
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.  CERTAINLY THIS LOOKS LIKE SOME
HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL FOR CEN AND SOUTH CEN KS LATE SUN NIGHT.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT THU JUN 13 2013

MON-WED: AFTER SUNDAY NIGHTS CONVECTION DROPS SOUTH...WEAK RIDGING
LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE PLAINS FOR BEGINNING OF THE WEEK FOR
MON/TUE.  THIS WILL LEAD TO DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION FOR
MON...WITH CONVECTION CHANCES SHIFTING BACK WEST OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS.  SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW WED/THU WILL PLAY OUT..AS THE GFS
BUILDS THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS...WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE
FLOW MORE ZONAL WITH RIPPLES ALONG THE FLOW FOR SOME SLIGHT POP
CHANCES. WILL GO WITH SLIGHT POPS FOR NOW...BUT COULD SEE THIS
PORTION OF THE FORECAST BECOMING DRY.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT THU JUN 13 2013

E-SE 10-15KT WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TOWARD DUE S FRI MORNING AS
A WEAK SFC LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE CO/KS BORDER. S/SW 22 KTS/25 MPH
SUSTAINED SPEEDS WITH GUSTS ~30KTS/35MPH ARE LIKELY FRI AFTERNOON
OVER CNTRL & SC KS WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER VELOCITIES ANTICIPATED OVER
SE KS. VFR CIGS & VSBYS TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE 14/00Z EDITION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    70  99  75  92 /   0   0  10  20
HUTCHINSON      70 100  74  92 /  10   0  10  20
NEWTON          69  98  74  91 /  10  10  10  20
ELDORADO        68  95  73  90 /   0  10  10  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   70  97  75  91 /   0   0  10  20
RUSSELL         70 102  72  94 /  10   0  10  20
GREAT BEND      70 100  72  93 /  10   0  10  20
SALINA          69  99  74  94 /  10  10  10  20
MCPHERSON       69 100  74  93 /  10  10  10  20
COFFEYVILLE     69  92  75  90 /   0  10  10  20
CHANUTE         67  92  74  91 /   0  10  10  20
IOLA            66  91  73  90 /  10  10  10  20
PARSONS-KPPF    68  92  75  90 /   0  10  10  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

ES