Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 182345
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
645 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 140 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

THE QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR SUNDAY.
MEANWHILE A UPPER LEVEL WAVE CURRENTLY OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MOISTURE RETURN AND SOME WEAK LIFT AHEAD OF THIS
UPPER WAVE COULD GENERATE A FEW RAIN SHOWERS FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE
SOUTH ACROSS KANSAS ON MONDAY BUT WILL NOT HAVE MUCH OF AN EFFECT
ON TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S FOR BOTH MONDAY/TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 140 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEP UPPER TROUGH AXIS
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SHORT WAVE
EJECTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE ROCKIES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY FROM THE PARENT TROUGH AXIS. MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF
THIS WAVE LOOKS SUFFICIENT ALONG WITH DECENT LIFT WHICH LOOKS TO GENERATE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL AMPLIFY IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...WITH DRY WEATHER PREVAILING FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

A SMORGASBORD OF DENSE CIRRIFORM CLOUDINESS COVERED ALL AREAS EARLY
THIS EVENING WITH 20,000-25,000FT CIGS. E-SE WINDS <7KTS WILL SLOWLY
SHIFT TO SLY OVER ALL AREAS BY 14Z AS A WEAK SFC TROF HANGS OUT NEAR
THE CO/KS BORDER. KRSL WOULD BE THE FIRST TO EXPERIENCE THE WINDSHIFT
BUT SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN <15KTS SUN AFTN AS THE CIRRIFORM CLOUDINESS
SLOWLY TRANSITIONS INTO AN ALTOSTRATUS VARIANT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    44  74  54  77 /   0   0  10  10
HUTCHINSON      44  74  52  76 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          44  72  53  76 /   0   0  10  10
ELDORADO        43  73  54  76 /   0   0  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   45  74  55  78 /   0   0  10  10
RUSSELL         45  75  49  74 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      45  75  49  74 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          44  74  51  74 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       44  73  52  75 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     43  71  54  76 /   0  10  20  20
CHANUTE         42  70  53  75 /   0  10  20  20
IOLA            42  70  52  75 /   0   0  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    42  71  53  76 /   0  10  20  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$






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