Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 201137
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
637 AM CDT FRI MAY 20 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Fri May 20 2016

Compact upper low continues to make slow progress across the ern
half of the forecast area early this morning. Expect to see some
lingering light rain or drizzle for areas east of the KS Turnpike
for the morning hours. So will keep this mention in for the morning.
Expect improving conditions for the rest of the area, with sunshine
returning for areas west of I-135 for the afternoon hours. With
peaks of sunshine for the afternoon, expect warmer max temps for
this afternoon as upper level ridging builds across the plains with
max temps closer seasonal norms.

As the ridge moves rapidly to the east of the forecast area this
evening, low-mid level moisture begins to increase for late this
evening, as flow becomes more southwesterly. Increasing isentropic
lift associated with this moisture will lead to a chance of elevated
showers/storms for areas west of I-135 for the overnight hours, with
this chance of storms moving across most of the forecast area for
the daytime hours on Sat.

Not quite sure how Sat afternoon/evening will play out, as low level
moisture remains high across the area, but convergence is lacking
for widespread shower/storm chances for Sat eve/night.  Think the
best chance for showers/storms will be for areas west of I-135 as
storms that develop along the dryline to the west of the area move
into the area.

Expect most of Sunday to remain dry, but low level moisture will
remain fairly high, with more storms expected to develop well west
of the area along the dryline. Models show a fairly vigorous
shortwave is expected to move out into the northern plains from the
parent trough axis residing over the western states for Sunday
night. This will lead to convection in NW KS becoming more numerous
and evolving into a forward propagating strong/severe mesoscale
convective complex(MCS) late Sun evening/night. Latest GFS suggests
that this MCS will trek E-SE along I-70, moving across most of
Central KS late Sun night or early Mon morning as the low level jet
veers to the northeast. Not sure how far to the south the southern
edge of the complex of storms will get, with most of MCS convection
located north of highway 50.  But will keep solid chance pops for
most locations into Mon morning.

Ketcham

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Fri May 20 2016

The early morning Mon MCS will "prime the pump", if you
will, for the beginning of the week as models show much richer Gulf
moisture streaming northward. This rich moist unstable airmass will
interact with a couple upper level waves moving through the
southwest flow aloft. This will lead to diurnally driven
thunderstorms developing for both Mon afternoon/evening and Tue
afternoon/evening as the dryline pushes into the wrn sections of the
forecast area. This rich and unstable airmass will lead to
strong/severe storm chances both nights for most of the forecast
area.

Heading into Wednesday/Thursday lots of uncertainty on frontal
positioning and placement of storm chances, mainly due to
differences between GFS/ECMWF models.  Will keep pops going given
the moist unstable airmass remaining for the middle of the week.

Ketcham

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 637 AM CDT Fri May 20 2016

Both cigs & vsbys pose problems this mrng. In Cntrl KS, KGBD & KRSL
wl be IFR & perhaps LIFR til ~15Z. IFR cigs are also lkly acrs most
of SC KS where KICT, KHUT & KSLN wl be shrouded by 700-80FT cigs.
Arnd mid-mrng cigs wl bgn to lift, lkly into "low end" MVFR country
w/ cigs cont`g to lift to ~2,500ft ~18Z. Most of Cntrl KS should
reach VFR status (~3,500ft) this aftn.

Late tngt, all of Cntral & SC KS wl deteriorate w/ both IFR cigs &
vsbys lkly ~06Z. A few TSRA may venture into areas primarily W of
K-14 twd 12Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    71  57  76  62 /  10  20  30  20
Hutchinson      71  56  76  62 /  10  20  30  20
Newton          70  55  75  60 /  10  20  30  20
ElDorado        69  56  75  60 /  10  10  30  20
Winfield-KWLD   71  57  77  62 /  10  10  30  20
Russell         72  56  77  62 /  10  20  20  20
Great Bend      72  56  78  62 /  10  20  20  20
Salina          71  56  77  61 /  10  20  30  20
McPherson       70  55  76  62 /  10  20  30  20
Coffeyville     70  55  76  61 /  20  10  20  20
Chanute         69  54  75  59 /  20  10  20  20
Iola            68  53  75  58 /  20  10  20  20
Parsons-KPPF    69  55  76  60 /  20  10  20  20

&&

.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Ketcham
LONG TERM...Ketcham
AVIATION...EPS



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