Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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621
FXUS63 KICT 100855
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
255 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

DRY AND QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS PERIOD WITH DAILY
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING THE ROLLER COASTER RIDE...AS THE NORTHWEST
UPPER LEVEL FLOW REGIME PERSISTS AND PUSHES A SERIES OF FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES ACROSS KANSAS. EXPECT BETTER DOWNSLOPE FLOW TODAY AS A
WEAK SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTH IN THE NW FLOW.  THIS WILL LEAD TO A MORE
WESTERLY SURFACE WIND WITH MAX TEMPS CLIMBING WELL ABOVE NORMAL INTO
THE LOWER 60S...GIVEN THE GOOD COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AHEAD OF THE
NEXT WEEK COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT OR EARLY THU MORNING. COULD EVEN SEE SOME LOCATIONS IN SOUTH
CENTRAL KS CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 60S AS SURFACE WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO
THE SW.

ANOTHER SHOT OF COOL CANADIAN AIR LOOKS TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA FOR THU...AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ARE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION. TEMPS COULD ACTUALLY A BIT TRICKY ON THU...WITH COOLER TEMPS
OVER NE SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND WESTERN SECTIONS STAYING
ALOT WARMER.

EXPECT ANOTHER MODERATING TEMP DAY ON FRI...AS THE NW FLOW REGIME
REMAINS IN PLACE. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH OVER
THE GREAT LAKES FOR LATE FRI INTO EARLY SAT. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW
THIS SHORTWAVE HELPING TO PUSH A SHALLOW BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
SOUTHWEST INTO THE FORECAST AREA FOR SAT. MOST OF THE COLDER AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY SHUNTED TO THE EAST OF THE
PLAINS...BUT ENOUGH OF THE COOLER AIR WILL OOZE SOUTHWEST INTO THE
FORECAST AREA TO PUSH TEMPS BACK TOWARDS NORMAL OR EVEN A LITTLE
BELOW NORMAL.  MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE WHEN IT COMES
TO HANDLING THIS SHALLOW COLD AIR...WITH THE GFS GUIDANCE SOLUTION
EVEN DROPPING TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 30S. WILL USE A BLEND IN MODELS
FOR NOW WITH MAXES IN THE LOW 40S.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SEEM TO AGREE ON THE NW FLOW PATTERN BREAKING
DOWN SOME FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND...AS A PACIFIC SHORTWAVE
TRAVERSES THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND DROPS SE ACROSS THE PLAINS FOR
EARLY SUNDAY. MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED OR SHALLOW IN NATURE AS THIS
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS. THE LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL LIMIT THE PRECIP
CHANCES TO MAINLY AREAS EAST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE WITH LIGHT
PRECIP AMOUNTS. SOME QUESTION ON PRECIP TYPE...AS THE MODELS ARENT
HANDLING THE SHALLOW COLD AIR FROM SAT VERY WELL. A WARM NOSE PUSHES
OVER THIS SHALLOW COLD AIR FOR EARLY SUN.  FOR NOW WILL MENTION A
WINTRY MIX OF RAIN/FREEZING RAIN/SLEET FOR EARLY SUNDAY GIVEN THE
LACK OF MIDDLE SATURATION/ICE CRYSTALS FOR SNOW FORMATION AND
SURFACE TEMPS NEAR FREEZING...BUT WITH THAT SAID...PRECIP AMOUNTS
WILL BE LIGHT. SO NOT EXPECTING HUGE TRAVEL IMPACTS.

EXPECT A WARMING TREND AGAIN FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK...AS
RIDGING LOOKS TO BUILD OVER THE PLAINS...WITH WARM ADVECTION OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1105 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST KANSAS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT
KHUT/KICT/KCNU THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED BRIEFLY THIS MORNING ACROSS ALL
TERMINALS BEFORE VEERING SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST THROUGHOUT THE
REMAINDER OF THIS TAF PERIOD. EXPECT BREEZY WINDS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...HOWEVER HAVE LEFT MENTIONS OF GUSTS OUT AT THIS
TIME BECAUSE DEEP MIXING DOES NOT LOOK FAVORABLE BASED ON FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND 925-850MB FLOW LOOKS TO BE ON THE WEAKER SIDE OF THE
SPECTRUM. EXPECT CEILINGS TO REMAIN VFR THIS MORNING AND SKIES TO
CLEAR THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

JMR

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 251 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

WARM WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PUSH UNSEASONABLY WARMER TEMPS
ACROSS THE PLAINS TODAY. EXPECT A LARGE TEMP/DEWPOINT DEPRESSION
AS THE TEMPS INCREASE...WHICH WILL CREATE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
FALLING INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
LEAD TO A VERY HIGH GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS AND MOST OF SOUTHERN KANSAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    65  28  49  30 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      64  27  49  30 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          62  27  46  29 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        62  27  46  29 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   65  29  52  30 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         58  26  46  30 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      64  28  51  31 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          58  26  43  30 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       62  27  46  29 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     60  26  46  28 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         57  24  43  27 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            56  23  42  26 /   0   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    59  25  45  27 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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