Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 011852
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
152 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 152 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

REMNANTS OF MESOSCALE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS MOVED NORTH OF KCNU
IN PAST HOUR WITH AIRMASS BECOMING VERY UNSTABLE TO ITS SOUTH
ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS WHERE MLCAPES ARE NOW IN EXCESS OF
3000 J/KG. CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IS WEAK THOUGH STILL EXISTS
ACROSS THIS AREA AND CLOUDS FROM PERSISTENT AREA OF ELEVATED
CONVECTION MAY LIMIT FURTHER DESTABILIZATION INTO THE LATE
AFTERNOON. THE BETTER CONVERGENCE MAY ALSO CONTINUE SHIFTING
NORTH WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY...SO INITIATION OF
STRONGER SURFACE BASED CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP JUST NORTH OF
THE AREA...THOUGH TENDING TO DEVELOP/MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO PARTS
OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS DURING THE EARLY EVENING. ELEVATED SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...WITH PERHAPS A
FEW SURFACE BASED STORMS POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY EVENING.

KED

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

TODAY-TONIGHT:
MCSS OVER WESTERN MO AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA WILL CONTINUE TO
TRACK SOUTHEAST WITH POTENTIAL FOR TRAILING MCS TO CLIP FLINT
HILLS/SOUTHEAST KS THIS MORNING WITH A FEW RAIN SHOWERS AND/OR
THUNDERSTORMS.  ANTICIPATING THE MCS WILL LAY OUT/REINFORCE
NORTHWEST/SOUTHEAST BOUNDARY NEAR NE BORDER OF FORECAST AREA. WITH
FRONT DROPPING SOUTH...AND SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF FRONT DRYING
LOW LEVELS ...SUSPECT INITIATION WILL OCCUR AT TRIPLE POINT MID
AFTERNOON...SOMEWHERE ROUGHLY IN A KC-CNU-SGF TRIANGLE. COMBO OF
CAPE/SHEAR SUGGEST STORMS WILL BE SEVERE. THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW
FAR WEST STORMS WILL DEVELOP GIVEN INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL DRIER AIR
AND MARGINAL CONVERGENCE ON SURFACE FRONT. WESTERN EDGE MAY BE
I-35...BUT CHANCES WILL INCREASE MARKEDLY CLOSER TO EASTERN EDGE
OF FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN FLIRT WITH TRIPLE
DIGITS IN THE VICINITY OF AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN SOUTH CENTRAL
KS. STORMS CHANCES IN FAR EASTERN SECTIONS WILL LIKELY BE MAXIMIZED
THIS EVENING...BUT UNCLEAR HOW LONG MCS WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION
GOING OVERNIGHT GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR LOW LEVEL JET TO OVERRUN THE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LATE IN THE NIGHT.

THU-THU NIGHT:
ONE OF THE MORE CHALLENGING DAYS...WITH A LOT RIDING ON EXTENT OF
CONVECTION WED NIGHT. THINKING TRIPLE POINT COULD BE IN CENTRAL
KS...WITH EARLY AFTERNOON STORMS DEVELOPING AND DIVING SOUTH
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. WILL SHADE
POPS HIGHER ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS IN THE EVENING. TEMPERATURES
ON THU WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION...BUT ODDS
FAVOR SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTH DUE TO EITHER
EXTENSIVE CLOUDS AND/OR COOLER AIR NORTH OF THE FRONT.

FRI:
CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL LIKELY BE TIED TO TIMING OF SHORTWAVE
IN NORTHWEST FLOW. FAIR AMOUNT OF DISAGREEMENT ON TIMING...WITH
GFS FASTER/STRONGER THAN ECMWF. THERE IS ALSO SOME QUESTION ON
WHERE SURFACE MOISTURE/FRONT WOULD BE...BUT SHORTWAVE TRACK/WARMER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WOULD FAVOR HIGHER POPS IN SOUTHEAST KS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST THIS PERIOD. OVERALL THEME IS
STILL A BREAKDOWN OF WESTERN RIDGE...AND TRANSITION INTO BROAD
ZONAL FLOW. CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS/TIMING OF THIS IS QUITE LOW...LET
ALONE MODEL QPF WHICH DRIVES INITIALIZATION GRIDS. ONCE AGAIN
TRENDED PRECIPITATION CHANCES CLOSER TO WPC GUIDANCE WHICH IS A BIT
MORE CONSERVATIVE THAN THE INITIALIZATION GRIDS. -HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. SCATTERED
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...MAINLY
ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH BEHIND
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AWAY
FROM ANY CONVECTION. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
KANSAS BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...WHERE A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS
ARE ANTICIPATED.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    73  89  68  87 /  20  30  40  30
HUTCHINSON      70  86  66  87 /  10  40  40  20
NEWTON          71  86  66  86 /  20  30  40  30
ELDORADO        71  88  67  86 /  20  30  40  30
WINFIELD-KWLD   73  93  68  88 /  30  30  50  30
RUSSELL         69  84  65  88 /  10  40  30  20
GREAT BEND      69  85  65  88 /  10  40  30  20
SALINA          70  84  66  86 /  10  40  30  20
MCPHERSON       70  85  65  86 /  10  40  30  20
COFFEYVILLE     74  91  68  86 /  40  20  40  40
CHANUTE         72  88  68  84 /  50  30  40  40
IOLA            71  86  67  84 /  50  30  30  40
PARSONS-KPPF    73  90  68  85 /  50  30  40  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


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