Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 180430
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1130 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

A SURFACE FRONT IS WAVERING AROUND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WITH
TEMPERATURES SOARING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS NEAREST THE BOUNDARY. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS
CENTRAL...SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS EXCEPT FOR SOME HIGH
CLOUDS STREAMING EASTWARD FROM THE REMNANTS OF ODILE. THE BOUNDARY
COULD BECOME A FOCUS FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING OVER
SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

THROUGH THE SHORT TERM THERE ARE TWO PERIODS TO FOCUS ON...TONIGHT
INTO TOMORROW MORNING AND THEN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

THE FIRST IS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
IS SITUATED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS AS OF THIS
ISSUANCE. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT IS POSSIBLE ALTHOUGH COVERAGE IS QUESTIONABLE. IF
STORMS DEVELOP THEY ARE MOST LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEAST
KANSAS WITH DEVELOPMENT SPREADING NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE
OVERNIGHT TO EARLY MORNING PERIODS. WITH SOME MODEST SHEAR OVER
SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND MODERATE CAPE...SOME OF THE STORMS THAT
DEVELOP THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD COULD BE STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE. BY MORNING THE CONCERN WILL BECOME FOG. EXPECT
VISIBILITIES TO DROP IN AREAS FROM CENTRAL TO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
WHERE MOISTURE WILL POOL NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. SOME AREAS MAY
DROP TO 1/2 MILE.

THE SECOND AND MORE IMPACTFUL PERIOD IS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE
REMNANTS OF ODILE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. THE LATEST GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW THE TRACK OF THE HIGHEST QPF ACROSS SOUTHERN
KANSAS/NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR
ENHANCED CONFIDENCE. WIDESPREAD AREAS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS WITH SOME AREAS SEEING MORE. MOST
OF THE RAIN WILL FALL ON SATURDAY AND WILL LINGER ON SUNDAY BEFORE
DRIER AIR MOVES IN. WILL WANT TO WATCH THIS PERIOD AS IT NEARS AS
THE TRACK OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN MAY CHANGE SOME. THIS WILL BE
BENEFICIAL RAIN...BUT IT COULD CAUSE SOME FLOODING ISSUES.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS IOWA MONDAY AND TUESDAY
CAUSING WINDS TO BE EASTERLY AND COOL ACROSS KANSAS. CURRENTLY
EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE 70S THROUGH THE EXTENDED. ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WHICH WILL BRING
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1126 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY TONIGHT
FROM WEST-CENTRAL KS THROUGH SOUTHERN KS AND SOUTHERN MO. ISOLATED
TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY
AM...TO THE NORTH OF THIS FRONT AIDED BY WEAK FORCING AND MODERATE
INSTABILITY. VCTS IS BEING CARRIED FOR MOST TERMINALS.

LOW STRATUS/FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WESTWARD TO THE NORTH OF
THIS FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KS OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. IFR WILL BE LIKELY. THE STRATUS SHOULD BURN OFF TOWARD
MIDDAY THURSDAY...AS THE FRONT LIFTS SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD DURING THE
DAY.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    67  88  68  89 /  20  20  10   0
HUTCHINSON      66  87  67  89 /  30  20  10   0
NEWTON          65  85  66  87 /  30  20  10  10
ELDORADO        66  86  67  88 /  30  30  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   68  87  68  87 /  20  20  10  10
RUSSELL         65  87  66  89 /  30  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      64  88  67  89 /  30  10  10  10
SALINA          66  85  67  90 /  30  30  10  10
MCPHERSON       66  85  66  88 /  30  20  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     67  84  66  86 /  40  30  10  10
CHANUTE         66  81  65  86 /  40  30  10  10
IOLA            65  79  65  85 /  40  30  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    66  83  66  86 /  40  30  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$






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