Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 161746
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1246 PM CDT Sun Apr 16 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 312 AM CDT Sun Apr 16 2017

A frontal boundary was bisecting portions of central KS early this
morning with showers and thunderstorms ongoing across much of
southern KS. This front is progged to stall across southern KS this
afternoon becoming a focus for deep moist convection. With some
breaks in the clouds, afternoon highs should climb into the upper
60s to mid 70s but areas that struggle to see sun could remain in
the low 60s. With a few breaks in the clouds and weak CINH
progged, storms are expected to develop by 19-20Z in the vicinity
of the front. Moderate instability is progged with steep mid lvl
lapse rates and good veering between H85-H5. This should support
some severe storms once again with large hail and damaging winds
the primary threats across mainly southern KS. Storms will linger
through the evening and overnight hours before diminishing from
west to east during the predawn hours on Monday.

Mon-Tue...The effective front is expected to be south of the area on
Monday with much of the area seeing dry weather conditions. Post-
frontal easterly flow will keep highs seasonably mild with readings
around 70. Another progressive shortwave trough is progged to race
eastward across the Northern Plains late Mon and maintained low pops
across portions of central KS although better chances should
remain well north of the forecast area. Maintained low pops across
mainly central KS on Tue as another shortwave trough is progged
to emerge from the Rockies. Breezy southerly winds will help boost
temperatures into the 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 312 AM CDT Sun Apr 16 2017

A progressive shortwave trough is progged to move across the
Central Rockies on Wed emerging over the Central Plains states Wed
night. Deep layer shear is progged to increase with moderate
instability supporting severe thunderstorms across much of the
area. Stable post-frontal conditions may return on Thursday as the
front stalls across the Southern Plains. The break will be short-
lived as another vigorous mid/upper trough is progged to build
over the Central Rockies on Friday before moving over the Central
Plains on Sat. The current track of this system would keep the
highest probabilities for severe weather south of the area but the
potential for heavy rain and much cooler air will return Fri-Sat.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Sun Apr 16 2017

Main hazards: thunderstorms and stratus potential.

Clusters of thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon
across central/south-central Kansas, before shifting into
primarily south-central/southeast Kansas tonight. Will include
tempo TSRA groups at RSL, GBD, SLN, HUT, and ICT through early
this evening, given higher confidence in occurrence and timing in
those areas. Will include a VCTS at CNU for tonight for now with a
lesser chance of storm initiation there this afternoon. Areas of
MVFR stratus will persist over southern Kansas this afternoon,
becoming more widespread and lowering to IFR tonight into Monday
morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    71  56  72  60 /  40  50  10  10
Hutchinson      68  53  71  59 /  40  30  10  10
Newton          69  54  71  59 /  40  40  10  10
ElDorado        72  56  72  60 /  40  50  10  10
Winfield-KWLD   73  58  73  60 /  50  50  10  10
Russell         65  50  72  57 /  50  10  10  20
Great Bend      65  50  71  57 /  40  20  10  20
Salina          67  52  72  60 /  30  20  10  20
McPherson       67  52  71  59 /  40  30  10  20
Coffeyville     76  59  74  60 /  80  60  40  10
Chanute         74  57  72  59 /  70  60  30  10
Iola            74  56  72  58 /  70  60  30  10
Parsons-KPPF    75  58  73  60 /  70  60  40  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MWM
LONG TERM...MWM
AVIATION...JMC



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