Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 171726
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1226 PM CDT Sun Sep 17 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 218 AM CDT Sun Sep 17 2017

The main challenge today will be the extent of cloud cover, shower
and thunderstorm activity. The cold front which passed through the
region last night will stall along the Oklahoma state line. This
will keep the clouds in the region and with gentle but consistent
moisture transport into the frontal zone and the available lift
the front will provide will keep the chances for showers and
thunderstorms in the forecast today and tonight. Shear and
instability is good and CIN appears low enough to allow for some
strong thunderstorms with an isolated severe storm possible along
the Oklahoma State line. The best chance for strong to severe
thunderstorms will be along and south of US-54. All the clouds and
precipitation in the region will keep the temperatures well below
normal for today. Monday the stalled front will drift to the
north and back into Central Kansas. The front will keep the CIN
low and the lift and shear favorable for thunderstorm activity.
Instability looks to be good enough to allow for some isolated
severe thunderstorms as well during the afternoon and into the
overnight period.

Tuesday, the frontal boundary will continue to move to the north
and southerly flow will return to the region. CIN will become much
stronger and the lift and shear will diminish significantly. This
will allow the sun to return for much of Tuesday and Wednesday
allowing temperatures to return to the upper 80s and low 90s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Saturday)
Issued at 218 AM CDT Sun Sep 17 2017

By Thursday the Gulf of Mexico will open up and moisture transport
into the region will resume ahead of the next system. Thursday
looks like a rather nice warm day with temperatures a little above
normal for this time of year. Friday afternoon and evening and
into the weekend look rather unsettled as the next cold front
begins to encroach on the region. It is at this point GFS and the
ECMWF begin to diverge. While both the GFS and ECMWF now agree
that the remnants of Hurricane Norma in the Eastern Pacific will
not be affect the region, the GFS is much more agressive with the
thunderstorm activity over the region. The ECMWF does have a
strong thunderstorm and heavy rain signal over the region for
Saturday but is much more progressive and moves the activity out
of the region rather quickly while the GFS tends to hold the
precipitation activity over the region. Both the GFS and the ECMWF
agree on strong moisture transport from an open Gulf of Mexico
which supports heavy rain over the region.  Either way, it looks
as if next weekend will be wet and cooler but confidence is low at
this time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Sun Sep 17 2017

Scattered to numerous convection will affect southern Kansas this
afternoon. Gradual improvement in IFR/MVFR cigs are expected by
late afternoon/early evening. Areas of MVFR cigs are expected to
redevelop tonight across much of the area with better chances for
elevated convection across central Kansas.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    72  64  86  67 /  40  40  50  20
Hutchinson      70  62  86  66 /  40  50  40  20
Newton          70  62  84  66 /  40  50  50  20
ElDorado        72  64  84  67 /  50  50  60  30
Winfield-KWLD   78  64  86  68 /  60  50  40  20
Russell         70  60  84  63 /  30  60  30  10
Great Bend      69  60  86  64 /  30  50  30  20
Salina          71  62  85  66 /  30  70  50  20
McPherson       70  62  85  65 /  30  60  50  20
Coffeyville     78  65  86  68 /  70  40  40  20
Chanute         74  64  83  67 /  50  60  50  30
Iola            73  63  82  66 /  50  70  60  30
Parsons-KPPF    76  65  85  68 /  60  50  50  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ELM
LONG TERM...ELM
AVIATION...KED



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