Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 292348
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
648 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

CURRENTLY HAVE AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES AND DOWN INTO THE OZARK REGION. WITHIN THIS TROUGH THERE ARE
A FEW IMPULSES...ONE OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WITH ANOTHER
PIECE OF ENERGY DIVING SOUTH ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AT
THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM NORTHEAST MO DOWN INTO
SW OK. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN MN
INTO CENTRAL KS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA WITH THE THINKING THAT ANY ACTIVITY WILL STAY SOUTHEAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE MAIN CHANGE FOR TONIGHT WAS TO LINGER
LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
LONGER...WITH MUCH OF SE KS STAYING SOCKED-IN THROUGH AT LEAST SUN
MORNING. ALSO WENT AHEAD AND INSERTED A MENTION OF FOG WITH THE
THINKING THAT IT WILL BE MOST PREVALENT ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
LOWER CLOUDS...WHICH LOOKS TO BE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KS AND THE
FLINT HILLS. THE UPPER IMPULSE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DOWN ACROSS
EAST OK/WEST AR FOR SUN THROUGH MON. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER TROUGH
WILL SLOWLY COME ON SHORE OVER THE PACIFIC NW. THIS WILL RESULT IN
STRENGTHEN LEE TROUGHING AND WARMING TEMPS. THE FRONT THAT IS DOWN
SOUTH WILL WASH OUT AS RETURN FLOW PICKS UP.

A WARMING TEND IS EXPECTED TO COMMENCE ON SUN AND CONTINUE THROUGH
AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK. 850MB TEMPS AND
1000-850MB PARTIAL THICKNESSES SUPPORT MID TO POSSIBLY UPPER 90S
ACROSS AT LEAST THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MON.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

THE MAIN THEME THROUGH THESE EXTENDED PERIODS WILL BE FOR
CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

BY WED THE UPPER TROUGH WILL STILL BE ANCHORED OVER THE NORTHWEST
CONUS WITH BROAD UPPER RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. THIS
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH 850MB TEMPS SUPPORTING HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 90S. AS THE TROUGH INCHES EAST...MONSOONAL
MOISTURE WILL ALSO WORK EAST AND MAY START TO AFFECT PARTS OF
WESTERN KS LATE IN THE WEEK. FOR NOW WILL ONLY MENTION SMALL
PRECIP CHANCES OVER A FEW CENTRAL KS COUNTIES STARTING FRI.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 648 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

MOIST/LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW WILL AFFECT LOCATIONS ALONG AND
EAST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE DURING THE FORECAST VALID PERIOD.
WHILE STRATOCU CIGS WILL SCATTER OUT FOR A TIME OVERNIGHT...
DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD PROMOTE MVFR CIGS SUNDAY...WHICH MAY
PERSIST INTO MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS.
AREAS OF FOG CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH
DECENT CONFIDENCE ON AT LEAST MVFR VSBYS AND A PERIOD OF IFR
AT KSLN AND KHUT. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MUCH
OF THE PERIOD ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    63  88  66  93 /  10  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      61  89  65  94 /   0   0   0  10
NEWTON          62  87  66  92 /  10  10  10  10
ELDORADO        63  87  66  91 /  10  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   62  88  66  93 /  10  10  10  10
RUSSELL         58  91  63  97 /   0   0   0  10
GREAT BEND      58  90  63  97 /   0   0   0  10
SALINA          59  88  65  94 /   0   0   0  10
MCPHERSON       60  88  65  94 /   0   0   0  10
COFFEYVILLE     66  86  67  91 /  10  10  10  10
CHANUTE         66  86  67  90 /  10  10  10  10
IOLA            66  85  67  90 /  10  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    66  86  67  91 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$



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