000
FXUS63 KICT 120455
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1155 PM CDT SAT MAY 11 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT SAT MAY 11 2013

A CRISP AND COOL NIGHT IN STORE AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS
SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS. MIN TEMPS MAY GET LOW ENOUGH FOR SOME
PATCHY FROST ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS...THOUGH CONFIDENCE WAS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION FOR NOW. STILL EXPECTING AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS AS LOW AND MID-LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION COMMENCES ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THIS
WILL ACTIVATE THE MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TOWARD DAWN...WHICH WILL MIGRATE
IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN
KANSAS INTO SUNDAY. INSTABILITY STILL LOOKS WEAK THOUGH THE CLOUD
BEARING SHEAR OF 40 TO 50 KTS WILL AID STORMS AND PERHAPS SOME
SMALL HAIL. WILL MAINTAIN RATHER MODEST POPS WITH THE PREFERRED
CORRIDOR LIKELY FROM SALINA SOUTHEAST TO EMPORIA TO CHANUTE. SOME
DIURNAL LATE DAY SURFACE BASED CONVECTION IS ALSO A REMOTE
POSSIBILITY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS TO
THE WEST OF GREATER WICHITA.

THE FIRST TASTE OF SUMMER-LIKE TEMPERATURES FOR SOME AREAS WILL
ARRIVE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH MAXS TOPPING 90F ACROSS CENTRAL
KANSAS. DRY AND BREEZY TO PERHAPS WINDY BY TUESDAY.

DARMOFAL

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT SAT MAY 11 2013

THE COMBINATION OF A MORE VIGOROUS NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROF
MOVING ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER WEDNESDAY AND WEAKER SOUTHERN
BRANCH TROF EJECTING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL PROVIDE
MODEST PRECIP CHANCES AND A SLIGHT COOL DOWN FOR MID-WEEK. THIS
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY TRANSIENT RIDGING ALOFT FOR A MILD AND
GENERALLY DRY END OF THE WEEK. THE FORECAST COULD BECOME A BIT
MORE INTERESTING BY NEXT WEEKEND AS THE MEDIUM RANGE...ESPECIALLY
THE ECMWF...SUGGESTS A MORE VIGOROUS UPPER TROF PROGRESSING EAST
INTO THE PLAINS WITH RATHER DECENT MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL
INSTABILITY MORE TYPICAL OF STRONGER MAY CONVECTION.

DARMOFAL

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CDT SAT MAY 11 2013

THE WEATHER WILL BE EXCELLENT FOR DURATION OF THE 12/06Z EDITION WITH
LGT & VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING S/SE <=13KTS ~17Z WITH SCT-BKN ALTOCU
~10,000FT SPREADING SE ACROSS KS. -SHRA MAY DEVELOP OVER CNTRL KS ~12Z
BUT ISOLD NATURE DICTATES LEAVING "VCSH" OUT OF KRSL & KSLN TERMINALS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    42  71  51  85 /  10  20  10   0
HUTCHINSON      41  72  51  86 /  10  20  10   0
NEWTON          41  68  51  84 /  10  20  10   0
ELDORADO        40  67  49  83 /  10  20  20   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   42  72  51  85 /  10  20  10   0
RUSSELL         41  74  51  89 /  20  20  20   0
GREAT BEND      42  75  51  89 /  20  20  20   0
SALINA          41  71  49  86 /  20  30  10   0
MCPHERSON       41  71  50  86 /  10  20  10   0
COFFEYVILLE     40  67  48  82 /   0  30  20   0
CHANUTE         38  65  46  81 /   0  30  20   0
IOLA            38  65  45  80 /   0  30  20   0
PARSONS-KPPF    38  66  47  82 /   0  30  20   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

ES