Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 251740
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1140 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

CURRENT SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE RACING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH STRONG
SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE KICKING UP THE NORTHWEST WIND SPEEDS OVER
CENTRAL NEBRASKA EARLY THIS MORNING. THESE STRONGER WINDS WILL
SPREAD SOUTHWARD ACROSS KANSAS THIS MORNING...AND SHOULD INCREASE
EVEN MORE ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS THAT WITNESS SOME SUNSHINE
TODAY. THE SUNSHINE WOULD ENHANCE THE DEEP ADIABATIC MIXING IN THE
1000-850MB LAYER...THUS GOING WIND ADVISORY LOOKS ON TRACK. THE
COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS MUCH WARMER AIR
RETURNS TO KANSAS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ONCE AGAIN DOWN SLOPE
EFFECTS WILL BE AT A PREMIUM ON MONDAY...WITH A STRONG
WEST/NORTHWEST COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL
SORE INTO THE 60S AND 70S OVER THE ENTIRE AREA...AND NEW RECORD
HIGHS COULD BE BROKEN THIS PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

ONE MORE WARM AND DRY WEATHER DAY WILL BE IN STORE FOR THE CENTRAL
PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER A FLEET-FOOTED UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES COME
THURSDAY. THIS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE HEARTLAND
WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES OVERSPREADING THE AREA. CURRENT LONG RANGE
MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT IT WILL NOT BE A MAJOR COOL DOWN LIKE WE
SAW EARLY THIS MONTH...AS DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL. MEANWHILE...PRECIPITATION CHANCES STILL LOOK LOW FOR
THE FRIDAY/SATURDAY PERIOD WITH MAIN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WELL TO THE
SOUTHWEST OVER THE BAJA REGION...AND NORTHWEST FLOW CLIPPER
SYSTEM HAVING LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1133 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

THE STRONG GRADIENT WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON IN A WEST TO EAST FASHION AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES EASTWARD OUT OF THE FORECAST. THESE WINDS MAY PRODUCE
CROSSWIND ISSUES WITH LANDING AND TAKING OFF WITH THE NORTH AND
SOUTH RUNWAYS. THE ENTRANCE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL USHER OUT THE
STRATOCUMULUS DECK CURRENTLY OBSERVED AT ALL LOCATIONS AND BRING
CLEAR SKIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALL CIGS SHOULD
REMAIN AOA VFR LIMITS. THE CLEAR SKIES WILL OCCUR THROUGH
MONDAY...THOUGH SOME FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS MAY DEVELOP.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    51  30  68  37 /  10   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      50  29  69  35 /  10   0   0   0
NEWTON          49  29  67  37 /  10   0   0   0
ELDORADO        49  29  67  37 /  10   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   53  30  67  36 /  10   0   0   0
RUSSELL         49  29  70  36 /  10   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      51  29  71  36 /  10   0   0   0
SALINA          48  29  68  35 /  10   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       48  29  68  35 /  10   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     50  29  64  35 /  10   0   0   0
CHANUTE         47  28  62  34 /  10   0   0   0
IOLA            46  28  61  34 /  10   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    49  28  63  34 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>070-082-083-091>094-098.

&&

$$


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