Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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385
FXUS63 KICT 220825
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
325 AM CDT MON AUG 22 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 321 AM CDT Mon Aug 22 2016

Today-Tonight: Southerly flow will gradually return to the forecast
area today, with warm advection leading to max temps closer to
seasonal norms.

This warm advection will lead to moisture transport increasing
initially over western KS and Oklahoma.  Expect the moisture
transport to gradually increase into the evening hours across the
forecast areas. This will initially lead to mid level cloud cover
increasing, but could lead to a chance of widely scattered showers
and thunderstorms by late this evening and overnight into early Tue.
The best moisture advection appears to be for areas east of the KS
Turnpike. So will go with some slight pops into Tue morning.

Tue-Thu: The southwest flow and moisture advection will continue for
the daytime Tue, with an elevated mixed layer (cap) keeping most of
the convective chances in check for the daytime hours. Will keep
chance pops across the area for the afternoon hours, as warm
afternoon temps may lead to a few storms developing.  Think the
better chance for thunderstorms will be across Central KS as a cold
front drops south into northern and central KS.

The unsettled pattern looks to continue for Tue night thru Wed night
as the frontal boundary stalls or makes slow progress to the SE
across Central KS into South Central KS.  Slow movement of the
frontal boundary may lead to several periods of showers and
thunderstorms for this time frame,  with the better chances for
widespread deep moist convection being Wed afternoon and Wed night.
Bulk shear of 35-40kts and an unstable airmass may lead to a chance
of strong to severe storms across most of South Central and
Southeast KS.  Precip water values of 150-175 percent of normal may
also lead to training storms with heavy rainfall possible.

Ketcham

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 321 AM CDT Mon Aug 22 2016

Most of the medium range models try to push the frontal boundary
into northern OK on Thu. But some uncertainty on how far south the
front will get before becoming stationary over washing out over
OK. This will lead to shower and thunderstorm chances continuing
as low level moisture overruns the boundary into Southern KS for
Thu and Thu night, especially for the Southern half of KS. Will go
with highest pops for Southern KS with lessor pops for Central KS.

Both the ECMWF and GFS show the synoptic frontal boundary washing
out across OK for Fri, which will lead to warm advection and
moisture advection again surging north across the region.  With SW
flow remaining, the chance of showers and thunderstorms will
continue for most locations into the weekend.

Ketcham

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1115 PM CDT Sun Aug 21 2016

VFR conditions will prevail across the entire region during the
next 24hrs with high clouds streaming overhead. Meanwhile
southerly winds will increase during the afternoon hours on
Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    86  69  89  73 /   0  30  30  20
Hutchinson      87  69  89  73 /   0  20  30  30
Newton          86  69  87  72 /   0  20  30  30
ElDorado        86  69  87  73 /   0  20  30  20
Winfield-KWLD   87  69  89  74 /   0  30  30  20
Russell         88  69  91  69 /   0  20  20  30
Great Bend      88  69  92  70 /   0  20  20  20
Salina          87  69  90  73 /   0  20  30  30
McPherson       87  69  89  72 /   0  20  30  30
Coffeyville     85  68  87  74 /   0  20  50  30
Chanute         84  69  85  74 /   0  20  50  30
Iola            84  70  84  74 /   0  20  50  30
Parsons-KPPF    85  69  86  73 /   0  20  50  30

&&

.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Ketcham
LONG TERM...Ketcham
AVIATION...CDJ



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