Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 230842
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
342 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014


TODAY-TONIGHT:
ISOLATED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE THROUGH MID MORNING IN CENTRAL
KANSAS GIVEN MODEST INSTABILITY AND DECENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT.  NEXT CONCERN IS DEWPOINTS AND RESULTANT HEAT INDICES.
BASED ON 0000 UTC RAOBS...850MB IS SEVERAL DEGREES DRIER THAN
24HRS AGO...AND ALSO EXPECTING MORE SURFACE WIND/MIXING THAN
YESTERDAY. THIS WOULD SUPPORT A BIT LOWER SURFACE DEWPOINTS...
ESPECIALLY GIVEN SPARSE RAINFALL YESTERDAY. SO WILL HOLD OFF ON
ADVISORY FOR NOW. PRECIPITATION WISE...RATHER IMPRESSIVE SHORTWAVE
IS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR NEAR FOUR CORNERS AND THIS WILL LIKELY
AID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AROUND 0000 UTC NEAR THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY...BUT DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE AHEAD OF
WAVE/FRONT. THE BIG QUESTION IS WHETHER MODELS ARE CORRECT
LINGERING PRECIPITATION ALL NIGHT. SUSPECT COMBO OF SHORTWAVE
PASSAGE AND LOSS OF HEIGHT WILL CAUSE PRECIPITATION TO WANE LATE
THIS EVENING WITH POSSIBLE REDEVELOPMENT OVER THE FLINT HILLS
TOWARDS DAYBREAK.

SUN-MON:
BASICALLY SAME ISSUE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD: WEAK FRONT WILL FLIRT
WITH PRIMARY CENTRAL KS. WILL LIKELY SEE ISOLATED-SCATTERED
CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF FRONT AND ANYWHERE CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE REACHED. THIS WILL KEEP BEST CHANCES ACROSS
CENTRAL KS. HEAT INDICES MAY FLIRT WITH ADVISORY CRITERIA ON SUN.
-HOWERTON

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS STILL STRUGGLING WITH TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF
LONGER WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS. THE 0000 UTC ECMWF HAS
TRENDED EVEN SLOWER THAN ITS PREVIOUS RUN...WHILE 0000 UTC GFS IS
MUCH FASTER. THIS IMPACTS BOTH THE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES
AND TEMPERATURES. GFS HAS SHOWN A BIT MORE RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY...
BUT A FAST SOLUTION IN SUMMER DOLDRUMS SEEMS LIKE A LONG SHOT.
INITIALIZATION BLEND IS PROBABLY THE WAY TO GO BEYOND WED....BUT
WOULD FAVOR WARMER ECMWF FOR TUE/WED TIMEFRAME. UNCERTAINTY WILL
FORCE LOW POPS FOR NEARLY ENTIRE PERIOD. -HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU THE FORECAST VALID PERIOD.
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM ACROSS NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS
INTO NEBRASKA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH AWAY FROM THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS MAY STILL DEVELOP ON ITS
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY AS FAR SOUTH AS I-70...POSSIBLE AFFECTING KRSL
AND KSLN. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION EMANATING FROM THE TEXAS AND
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT...SHOULD STAY PRIMARILY
WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...THOUGH COULD BRUSH THE KRSL TERMINAL
LATE TONIGHT. OTHERWISE DIURNALLY GUSTY SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS
WILL PREVAIL ON SATURDAY WITH CHANCES FOR CONVECTION MORE REMOTE
ACROSS THE AREA.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    99  76  99  74 /  10  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      98  75  99  73 /  20  20  20  20
NEWTON          98  75  99  73 /  10  20  20  20
ELDORADO        98  76  98  74 /  10  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   99  75  99  76 /  10  10  10  10
RUSSELL         96  72  94  69 /  20  20  20  20
GREAT BEND      96  71  96  71 /  20  20  20  20
SALINA          99  75 100  72 /  20  20  20  20
MCPHERSON       98  74  99  72 /  20  20  20  20
COFFEYVILLE    100  74  99  75 /  10  10   0  10
CHANUTE         99  74  98  75 /  10  10   0  10
IOLA            98  73  98  74 /  10  10   0  10
PARSONS-KPPF   100  74  99  75 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





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