Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 192212
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
512 PM CDT Fri May 19 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 501 PM CDT Fri May 19 2017

Headline: Tornado Watch #250 in effect for all of South-Central
and parts of Central & Southeast KS until 10 PM CDT.

This Evening:
A line of thunderstorms, a few of which are producing tornadoes,
continue to move northeast around 30 mph. At 5 PM CDT, the
thunderstorms producing tornadoes were surging northeast across
Reno and Kingman Counties. All products have been updated.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 145 PM CDT Fri May 19 2017

Water vapor imagery shows deep upper low spinning over southern
CO/northeast NM. At the surface, stationary front extends from
near KMCI to southwest of KICT.

Initial round of warm advection storms quickly lifted across the
area this morning but it appears it did little to push the front
south, with southeast winds still in place across western OK and
southern KS. Meanwhile, persistent line of convection remains over
eastern OK in an area of strong 850mb moisture transport and
theta-e advection.

Current thinking is that another round of storms will develop
later this afternoon along the surface front over western OK and
lift into south central and especially southeast KS. This activity
will likely persist into the early evening hours. Should also see
additional development southeast of the KS Turnpike this evening
as 850-700mb moisture transport once again ramps up.

We are also seeing additional convection over western KS, closer
to the upper low where mid level lapse rates are maximized with
this activity possibly affecting central/south central KS later
this afternoon into the early evening hours. While instability
doesn`t look as high as we had yesterday at this time, there
should still be enough early this evening for some severe storms,
plus deep layer shear in the 40-55kt range won`t hurt. PW`s in the
1.75 to 2 inch range southeast of the KS turnpike will also allow
for high rainfall rates which may lead to some flooding tonight.
Current plan is to keep entire flood watch going and will likely
cancel the western flank once the activity over west-central KS
lifts out early this evening.

By 12z Sat, the upper low will be lifting over southwest Nebraska
with the cold front extending through the Ozark region into the
Arklatex area. May see some lingering precip over far SE KS Sat
morning, but by the early afternoon hours the forecast area will
be precip free. Shortwave will continue to lift northeast and will
be over the northern Mississippi Valley by Sun afternoon. Should
continue with dry and cool conditions Sun as weak surface high
pressure pushes east.

Confidence is high that we`ll see below normal temps for both Sat
and Sun with Sat in the 60s with low to mid 70s expected for Sun.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 145 PM CDT Fri May 19 2017

There is decent model agreement between the GFS and ECMWF in
tracking some shortwave energy out of the central Great Basin and
across KS late Sun night into Mon. This will bring us our next
chance for precip, but with limited moisture not expecting any
severe storms or heavy rain. There is a slight chance for some
light showers Tue, in the wrap around region of an upper low off
to our east, but confidence is low in this panning out. Will
finally get into a warming trend for Thu and especially Fri as
the upper flow becomes more zonal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 627 AM CDT Fri May 19 2017

Widespread LIFR/IFR was observed with low cigs and visibilities in
the wake of a cold front bisecting the area this morning.
Conditions are expected to prevail through much if not all of the
day north of the front, while ceilings may lift some along and
south of the front before showers and storms become more numerous
by 16-18z or so. LIFR/IFR may return tonight as precipitation
begins to diminish from west to east. Breezy northeast winds shift
to the northwest as drier air filters across the area late
tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    50  64  46  75 /  30  10   0  10
Hutchinson      48  63  44  74 /  50  10   0  10
Newton          49  62  44  73 /  50  10   0  10
ElDorado        51  64  45  73 /  50  10   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   53  66  46  75 /  40  10   0   0
Russell         43  60  41  74 /  70  20   0  10
Great Bend      44  61  42  74 /  60  10   0  20
Salina          45  61  43  74 /  60  20   0  10
McPherson       48  62  43  73 /  50  10   0  10
Coffeyville     59  69  47  74 /  70  20   0   0
Chanute         57  68  46  73 /  60  20   0   0
Iola            57  67  46  72 /  70  20   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    59  69  47  73 /  70  20   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch through Saturday morning for KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$

UPDATE...EPS
SHORT TERM...RBL
LONG TERM...RBL
AVIATION...MWM



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