Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 271705
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1205 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

UPPER LEVEL WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES WITH A RIDGE OVER THE EAST. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS
CENTERED IN THE RIDGE...WHICH WAS CAUSING SOME THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY OVER IOWA AND MISSOURI THIS MORNING. THE PATTERN IS A
SLOW PROGRESSIVE ONE. A RATHER BENIGN SURFACE PATTERN EXISTS WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF A WEAK LEE TROUGH.

THE MAIN SHORT TERM FOCUS IS PERSISTENCE. THE LEE TROUGH REMAINS
RATHER WEEK FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS CONTINUES TEMPERATURES
AND WINDS NEAR PERSISTENCE.

COOK

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

THE LONG TERM FOCUS THIS WEEK IS CENTERED ON THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT
DISTURBANCE TO AFFECT THE REGION. NWP IS IN RELATIVE AGREEMENT
SUGGESTING THE DISTURBANCE THAT IS IN THE BASE OF THE WESTERN
TROUGH OVER CALIFORNIA...WILL MOVE EAST AND BEGIN TO INFLUENCE THE
WEATHER LATE MONDAY. THERE APPEARS TO BE A NUMBER OF OPPORTUNITIES
FOR PRECIPITATION.

THE FIRST IS MONDAY NIGHT. LEE CYCLOGENESIS IS WELL UNDER WAY BY
MONDAY EVENING. THAT IN ADDITION TO HEALTHY MOISTURE TRANSPORT
SUPPORTS STORMS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. MID LEVEL STEERING WINDS
SHOULD PUSH THE STORMS OFF THE HIGH PLAINS TOWARD THE CENTRAL PART
OF KANSAS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR DOES SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION INTO
WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS. STORMS SHOULD MOVE EAST AND DIMINISH
IN CENTRAL KANSAS.

ON TUESDAY EVENING...THE FRONT HAS MOVED EAST SOMEWHAT WITH
DEWPOINT FORECASTS SUGGESTING A DRYLINE LOOKING FEATURE EXTENDING
EAST AS FAR AS DODGE CITY. MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
AGAIN SUPPORT CONVECTION OF AN ORGANIZED NATURE RESPECTIVELY. THAT
SAID...UPPER LEVEL FORCING IS JUST NOT COUPLED WITH ANY FORCINGS
IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THUS...DO NOT BELIEVE COVERAGE WILL BE THAT
GREAT...THOUGH A FEW STORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED.

ON WEDNESDAY EVENING...ANOTHER PV ANOMALY SURGES EAST IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...WHICH FURTHER INCREASES THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO SUPPORT
ORGANIZED CONVECTION. AT THIS TIME...THE TIMING LOOKS FAVORABLE
FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP DURING THE EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS
WHERE THERE IS A DRYLINE LIKE FEATURE SUGGESTED IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER DEWPOINT FORECAST. THIS WILL BE THE DAY WITH THE GREATEST
CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER WHERE SHEAR/BUOYANCY COMBINATIONS ARE
MOST FAVORABLE.

THE COLD FRONT MOVES OUT OF THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. BEFORE
THIS OCCURS...AN OPPORTUNITY FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION EXISTS
ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS. THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION OF MORE ORGANIZED
ACTIVITY...BUT THE TIMING RIGHT NOW WOULD PLACE IT EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

ONCE THE FRONT PASSES...COOLER AIR WILL RETURN TO THE REGION FOR
THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND.

COOK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1202 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

FOR ICT-SLN-HUT-CNU-RSL...THE ONLY AVIATION CONCERN THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE BREEZY SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY EVENING...INCREASING AGAIN BY LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON SUNDAY. OTHERWISE...FEW-SCT VFR CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH BASES RANGING FROM
5000-7000 FT AGL.

ADK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    84  61  84  61 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      84  61  84  60 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          82  60  82  60 /   0  10  10   0
ELDORADO        83  61  84  61 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   84  61  84  61 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         83  61  83  61 /   0  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      83  60  83  61 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          84  61  84  61 /   0  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       83  60  83  60 /   0  10  10   0
COFFEYVILLE     83  59  84  60 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         82  59  83  60 /   0  10  10   0
IOLA            82  59  83  60 /   0  10  10   0
PARSONS-KPPF    83  59  84  60 /   0  10  10   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$




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