000
FXUS63 KICT 111722
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1222 PM CDT SAT MAY 11 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT SAT MAY 11 2013

TODAY:
LATEST MODEL RUNS AND SATELLITE LOOKING LESS IMPRESSIVE WITH
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT COLD
FRONT. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SPRINKLES...BUT WILL ONLY CARRY
BRIEF SMALL POPS IN SOUTHEAST KS WHERE MOISTURE MAY BE SLIGHTLY
MORE PLENTIFUL. VERY UNEASY ABOUT TEMPERATURES TODAY. MODELS/GUIDANCE
ALL COMING IN COOLER THAN ANTICIPATED GIVEN TEMPERATURES YESTERDAY
WERE RELATIVELY MILD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS BEHIND THE FRONT...FEWER
CLOUDS AND LITTLE IN WAY OF PRECIPITATION. ESPECIALLY THIS TIME OF
YEAR...CAN BE BURNED BY SO CALLED COLD FRONTS AND DRY DOWNSLOPE
FLOW. HIGH FOR DAY WAS BASED ON THE WARMER OF THE MAXIMUM
FORECASTED BY MODEL BLEND WHICH VERIFIED BEST YESTERDAY AND THE
850MB MIX DOWN TEMPERATURES AT /18 UTC/21 UTC/00 UTC FROM NAM.

TONIGHT-SUN:
DRY/CLEAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED MOST OF NIGHT...WITH CLOUDS ROLLING
IN FROM WEST TOWARDS DAYBREAK. COULD SEE SOME ELEVATED
PRECIPITATION BREAK OUT JUST PRIOR TO SUNRISE...WITH CHANCES
INCREASING DURING THE DAY. NOT AS EXCITED ABOUT CHANCES AS MODELS
HAVE BEEN...BUT GIVEN CONSIDERABLE MODEL CONSENSUS...WILL
MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE POPS. CONSIDERABLE MODEL VARIATION ON LOCATION
OF WARM FRONT DURING THE DAY WHICH WILL IMPACT BOTH CHANCE/TIMING FOR
RAIN AND ALSO TEMPERATURES. -HOWERTON

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT SAT MAY 11 2013

MON-TUE:
DRY CONDITIONS AND SOME OF THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES THIS SPRING
APPEAR TO BE IN STORE FOR THE AREA...WITH SOME WESTERN SECTIONS
LIKELY REACHING 90.

WED-FRI:
OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS...GFS HAS BEEN A BIT MORE CONSISTENT WITH
SURFACE FRONT THAN ECMWF...WITH BOTH GFS/ECMWF IN THE BALLPARK ON
WED...BUT DIVERGING AFTER THAT. GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE...WHICH
WOULD RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL KS ON THU. NOT A LOT
OF CONFIDENCE IN ANY OF THE MODEL SOLUTIONS...WITH SO MUCH
DEPENDING ON SURFACE FRONT AND THE DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LURKING
NEARBY. -HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1213 PM CDT SAT MAY 11 2013

BREEZY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNSET
ACROSS THE AREA BEFORE DIMINISHING AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. SOUTH WINDS WILL RETURN FROM WEST
TO EAST TOMORROW WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS IMPACTING THE AREA ON SUNDAY AS A SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE AREA IN NORTHWEST MID/UPPER FLOW. LOW
PROBABILITIES WILL EXIST FOR ELEVATED SHOWERS POSSIBLY IMPACTING
KSLN-KCNU AFTER 15Z ALTHOUGH VFR IS ANTICIPATED. ADDITIONAL
SURFACE-BASED ACTIVITY MAY TRY TO DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS BY LATE AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO
REMAINS LOW.

MCGUIRE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    70  44  70  50 /  10  10  20  10
HUTCHINSON      69  43  71  49 /  10  20  30  10
NEWTON          68  43  68  49 /  10  10  30  10
ELDORADO        69  43  67  49 /  10  10  30  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   72  44  71  52 /  10  10  20  10
RUSSELL         67  43  74  50 /  10  20  20  10
GREAT BEND      67  44  75  50 /  10  20  20  10
SALINA          68  42  69  50 /  10  20  30  10
MCPHERSON       68  43  70  49 /  10  20  30  10
COFFEYVILLE     73  43  66  48 /  20   0  20  10
CHANUTE         71  42  65  46 /  10   0  20  10
IOLA            70  41  65  45 /  10   0  20  10
PARSONS-KPPF    72  42  66  47 /  10   0  30  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$