Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 072255
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
555 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2014

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2014

TONIGHT-TUE:
FRONT WILL LIKELY WORK AT LEAST PART OF THE WAY THROUGH FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT. FAIRLY HIGH PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION...BUT COVERAGE
IS A BIT QUESTIONABLE. GIVEN COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY/SHEAR...
CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE HIGH
EARLY THIS EVENING. AT THIS POINT...KEPT GENERAL TRENDS OF
PREVIOUS PRECIPITATION FORECAST. THINK PRECIPITATION MAY WANE A
BIT MID NIGHT WITH SLIGHT INCREASE TOWARDS DAYBREAK IN
CLIMATOLOGY FAVORED FLINT HILLS. NOT PARTICULARLY OPTIMISTIC ABOUT
CHANCES ON TUE DURING MOST OF THE DAY...BUT COULD SEE SOME
PRECIPITATION LINGER IN THE MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS...AND
REDEVELOP ALONG OK BORDER IN THE AFTERNOON.

WED-THU:
SURFACE RIDGE OVER AREA ON WED...WILL GIVE WAY TO RETURN FLOW WED
NIGHT-THU. RETURN OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE APPEARS SUFFICIENT FOR SMALL
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION STARTING EARLY THU MORNING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. -HOWERTON

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2014

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING WITH DEPTH/LOCATION OF
UPPER LOW IN THE VICINITY OF GREAT LAKES. WITH FORECAST AREA ON
EDGE OF UPPER RIDGE...AND POTENTIAL NORTHWEST FLOW...FORECAST
TEMPERATURES/PRECIPITATION BECOMES QUITE CHALLENGING. GIVEN LOW
CONFIDENCE IN BOTH EVOLUTION OF UPPER FLOW AND POTENTIAL TIMING OF
RIPPLES...PREFERENCE WAS TO KEEP THINGS DRY AND WAIT FOR HIGHER
CONFIDENCE. DID ADD SOME TOKEN POPS FOR LIMITED AREAS/TIMES FOR
CONSENSUS. GENERALLY WENT ALONG WITH CONSENSUS MAXIMUM/MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES FOR NOW...BUT CONCEDE THAT IT COULD EASILY GO EITHER
WAY. -HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 549 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2014

CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHWESTERN KS SHOULD PROPAGATE
SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD THIS EVENING...INTO A 35 KNOT SOUTHWESTERLY
LOW-LEVEL JET. OTHER STRONG-SEVERE CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP EASTWARD
ACROSS NORTHERN KS ALONG SURFACE TROUGH AXIS WHERE LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE SHOULD STRENGTHEN THIS EVENING. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY
MAY IMPACT RSL...SLN...HUT TERMINALS THIS EVENING...BEFORE WANING
LATE TONIGHT AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET VEERS TO WESTERLY. STRONG-SEVERE
WIND GUSTS WOULD BE THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THESE STORMS...WITH
LARGE HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE. THE MAIN COLD FRONT IN NEBRASKA WILL
OVERTAKE THE SURFACE TROUGH THIS EVENING...PUSHING INTO SOUTHERN
KS BY 12Z TUESDAY AND OUT OF SOUTHERN KS BY 18Z TUESDAY.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY AND GUSTY
BEHIND THE FRONT.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    73  88  67  87 /  20  20  10  10
HUTCHINSON      70  89  66  88 /  30  20  10  10
NEWTON          70  85  65  87 /  30  20  10  10
ELDORADO        71  86  64  86 /  20  20  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   74  89  66  88 /  20  20  20  10
RUSSELL         66  86  64  87 /  40  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      67  86  63  87 /  30  20  10  20
SALINA          69  88  64  89 /  40  20   0  10
MCPHERSON       69  87  65  88 /  30  20   0  10
COFFEYVILLE     75  89  66  87 /  20  20  20  10
CHANUTE         73  86  64  86 /  20  20  10  10
IOLA            73  85  64  85 /  30  20  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    75  88  65  87 /  20  20  20  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







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