Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 291742
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1242 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1040 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

MADE A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT UPDATE TO POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY.

JUST LIKE YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME...A WELL DEFINED MCV IS ROTATING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS RESULTING IN PERSISTENT MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL. THE WELL DEFINED BACK EDGE TO THE RAIN INDICATES THE
LOCATION OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. THE LOOSELY DEFINED COLD
FRONT EXTENDS FROM EAST-CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO CENTRAL KS AND THEN
DOWN INTO THE TX PANHANDLE. IT APPEARS ITS LOCATION HAS BEEN
AUGMENTED BY OVERNIGHT CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED
OUTFLOW. TWO THINGS MAY LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY TODAY: LACK OF CONVERGENCE ALONG IT AND SUBSIDENCE ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE MCV OVER EASTERN KS. SO WENT AHEAD AND DECREASED
POPS QUITE A BIT FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY. MAY ALSO BE ABLE TO GET RID OF MORE OF THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THIS AFTERNOON.

LAWSON

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

A COLD FRONT MOVING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING
IS PROGGED TO SWEEP SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE GFS REMAINS MORE PROGRESSIVE WHEN COMPARED TO THE
NAM WHILE THE ECMWF IS SOMEWHAT OF A COMPROMISE. THE LATEST RAP13
WOULD SUPPORT THE MORE PROGRESSIVE GFS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAY BE ONGOING THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH MOISTURE
TRANSPORT/ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS. THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
THE COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR DEEP MOIST CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KS.
BETTER CHANCES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN ACROSS
SOUTHEAST KANSAS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT BEFORE DRIER AND MORE
STABLE AIR ARRIVES IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT. WITH ONGOING RIVER FLOODING AND SATURATED SOILS...NO
CHANGES ARE PLANNED TO THE FLOOD WATCH WITH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF
THE AREA TODAY AND ALL BUT PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KS THIS EVENING.

SAT-SUN...POST-FRONTAL DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR
THE WEEKEND WHILE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN 8-10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 70S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER
40S/LOW 50S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

A MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO TRANSLATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS BRINGING RISING HEIGHTS/INCREASING THICKNESS TO THE AREA. THIS
WILL SUPPORT RISING TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH
EARLY WED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO RETURN TO SEASONABLE VALUES WITH READINGS IN THE LOW-MID 80S
WHILE LOWS REMAIN IN THE 60S.

BY LATE WED INTO EARLY THU...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO LIFT
OVER THE ROCKIES BRINGING A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS STATES. SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEK WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL REMAIN CONVECTIVE TRENDS TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

JUST LIKE YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME AN MCV IS AFFECTING EASTERN OK/SE
KS AND IS KEEPING SHOWERS AND STORMS AROUND. AM EXPECTING THESE
SHOWERS TO REMAIN THROUGH AT LEAST 21Z WITH SOME PERIODS OF IFR
CIGS FOR KCNU. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOME ISO-SCT STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG OR JUST BEHIND THE FRONT WHICH WILL MAINLY
AFFECT THE AREA AFTER 00Z. WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN AREAL COVERAGE
WILL JUST RUN WITH VCTS AS THIS TIME. SOME MUCH NEEDED DRIER AIR
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION FOR SAT WHICH WILL PUSH THE BETTER RAIN
CHANCES SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

LAWSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    81  58  72  53 /  20  20  10   0
HUTCHINSON      81  57  72  50 /  20  20  10   0
NEWTON          78  55  71  50 /  20  20  10   0
ELDORADO        80  59  71  53 /  40  30  10   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   80  59  74  53 /  20  30  10   0
RUSSELL         79  53  71  48 /  30  30  10   0
GREAT BEND      79  53  71  50 /  30  30  10   0
SALINA          79  56  71  50 /  30  30  10   0
MCPHERSON       80  55  71  50 /  20  20  10   0
COFFEYVILLE     76  62  73  55 / 100  40  10   0
CHANUTE         76  61  73  55 / 100  40  10   0
IOLA            76  61  72  55 / 100  50  10   0
PARSONS-KPPF    76  61  75  55 / 100  40  10   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR KSZ052-053-
067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ032-033-
047>051.

&&

$$



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