Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 272308
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
608 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 232 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

DEEP UPPER LOW IS SLOWLY APPROACHING THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH A
MUCH WEAKER PIECE OF ENERGY SPINNING OVER NORTHERN MO/IA. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WITH LEE TROUGHING REMAINING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OF KS/CO
AND NEBRASKA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

NOT MUCH IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH SUN AS THE
DEEP UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY TRACK EAST. RETURN FLOW WILL SLOWLY
INCREASE THROUGH SUN WHICH WILL KEEP ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS IN PLACE
WITH HIGHS SUN A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN TODAY. BY 12Z MON THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN INTO THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS FEATURE WILL THEN QUICKLY LIFT NORTHEAST
MON INTO MON EVENING AND BY 00Z TUE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES. ANY PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL
REMAIN WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MON WITH RETURN FLOW AND
WARM TEMPS REMAINING OVER THE AREA. THIS FEATURE WILL BE OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS BY 12Z TUE WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH
WESTERN/CENTRAL KS. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE OUT OF WESTERN KS
AND SHOULD AFFECT WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE MON NIGHT.

THE NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEST OF
I-135 ON TUE AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE. A FEW
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THIS FRONT TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING BUT
CONFIDENCE IN AREAL COVERAGE IS LOW AS THE BULK OF THE UPPER
ENERGY REMAINS WILL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

THE BETTER CHANCES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS LOOKS TO
ARRIVE FOR WED AND WED NIGHT. THIS IS WHEN BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS
TRACK ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY OUT OF THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN
AND ACROSS KS/OK WED NIGHT. THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN
PLACE WED AS A SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OVER NORTHERN OK/SOUTHERN KS.
WITH UNSEASONABLY RICH MOISTURE AND A JET MAX PUNCHING IN FROM THE
WEST RESULTING IN DECENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR...SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME THE MOST LIKELY AREA ON WED-WED EVENING
WOULD BE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KS/NORTHERN OK WHICH LOOKS TO BE CLOSE
TO THE TRIPLE POINT. BY FRI THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL BE EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA AS COOLER AIR SPILLS SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 607 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. WITH
STAGNANT WEATHER PATTERN...FORECAST IS CLOSE TO PERSISTENCE.
-HOWERTON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    61  86  62  86 /   0  10  10   0
HUTCHINSON      60  86  61  86 /   0  10  10  10
NEWTON          59  84  61  85 /  10  10  10   0
ELDORADO        58  86  61  85 /  10  10   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   60  85  63  86 /   0  10   0   0
RUSSELL         59  86  61  86 /  10  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      59  85  61  86 /  10  10  10  10
SALINA          60  85  61  85 /  10  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       59  84  61  85 /  10  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     59  84  61  84 /   0  10   0   0
CHANUTE         57  84  61  84 /  10  10   0   0
IOLA            57  83  61  84 /  10  10   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    57  84  60  84 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$






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