Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 220510
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1210 AM CDT FRI APR 22 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT THU APR 21 2016

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH BROUGHT THE MUCH NEEDED RAIN TO THE
AREA OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS IS FINALLY MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.
THERE WILL BE SOME CLOUDS IN THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON BUT CLEARING
SKIES WILL BE THE RULE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.  FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY LOOK NICE WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND MILD TEMPERATURES
THROUGHOUT THE REGION.  THE NEXT RAIN THREAT LOOKS TO BE SUNDAY AS
THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE MORE LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH SOME ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT THU APR 21 2016

THE 12Z/21ST GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW AN UPPER TROUGH INTENSIFYING
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES MONDAY...WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT
OVER KANSAS. THE STRONG TROUGH IN THE SOUTHWEST IS PROGGED TO EJECT
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARD MIDWEEK...WHILE ANOTHER
UPSTREAM UPPER TROUGH DIGS TOWARD THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES. THE ECMWF
HAS SHOWN SOMEWHAT POOR RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY...WITH NOW A FASTER
EJECTION OF THIS TROUGH ACROSS KANSAS TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT. TENDING
TO PREFER THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER GFS SOLUTION GIVEN BETTER RECENT
CONTINUITY. WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LOW DURING THE DAY MONDAY
NEAR THE RESIDUAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHEASTERN
KANSAS...ALTHOUGH THE SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT WILL BE POSSIBLY AN
INHIBITING FACTOR FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT.

THE GFS MODEL WOULD PLACE MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA IN THE WARM
SECTOR BY MIDDAY TUESDAY...WITH A SURFACE LOW NEAR CENTRAL
KANSAS...A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EASTWARD TO CENTRAL
MISSOURI...AND A DRYLINE TRAILING SOUTHWARD FROM THE LOW INTO
WESTERN OKLAHOMA. WITH THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH TAKING ON A NEGATIVE
TILT AS IT EJECTS NORTHEASTWARD TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...A 70 KT
MID-LEVEL JET STREAK WILL BE NOSING INTO THE VERY UNSTABLE WARM
SECTOR (MLCAPES 2500-3500 J/KG). THIS WILL RESULT IN STRONG DEEP-
LAYER SHEAR FAVORING HIGHER-END SUPERCELL STORMS WITH ALL FACETS
OF SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE. LCL HEIGHTS ARE PROGGED TO BE LOW
GIVEN RECENT WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE PAST
WEEK. THE SLOWER GFS SOLUTION ALSO IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER DAY 6 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR TUESDAY. SEVERE
STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF EASTERN KANSAS TUESDAY
NIGHT...FED BY A 50 KNOT SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET AND
STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE STILL SOME MODEL
DISCREPANCIES AND UNCERTAINTIES ON EXACT TIMING AND AREAL
PLACEMENT OF SEVERE STORMS...STAY TUNED TO LATER FORECASTS AND
OUTLOOKS AS TUESDAY PRESENTS THE POSSIBILITY OF HIGH-END SEVERE
WEATHER FROM CENTRAL/EASTERN KANSAS SOUTHWARD THROUGH OKLAHOMA.

IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH...RAIN CHANCES SHOULD
DIMINISH WEDNESDAY INTO THE DAYTIME THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHWEST. ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER/DRIER AIR IS
EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CDT THU APR 21 2016

EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN LIGHT ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THIS MORNING AND
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. WINDS WILL
VEER FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST TO EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS ALL
TERMINALS. CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS EASTERN
KANSAS THROUGHOUT THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE
VACATING EASTERN KANSAS TONIGHT...HOWEVER NOT CONFIDENT THAT
THESE CEILINGS WILL DROP BELOW VFR SO HAVE INCLUDED MENTIONS OF
SCATTERED CLOUDS AT 2000FT TO HINT TOWARDS THE POTENTIAL. HAVE
INTRODUCED A BRIEF PERIOD OF 5SM BR AT KSLN THIS MORNING AS MODELS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS. CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE MENTIONS
OF BR AT THE REMAINING TERMINALS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    47  76  49  80 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      45  75  50  81 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          47  75  49  79 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        47  75  49  79 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   47  77  50  80 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         44  75  52  83 /   0   0   0  10
GREAT BEND      43  76  52  83 /   0   0   0  10
SALINA          45  74  49  82 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       45  74  49  80 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     48  75  49  79 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         48  74  48  78 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            48  73  48  78 /   0   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    48  75  48  79 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ELM
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...JMR



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