Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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077
FXUS63 KICT 192337
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
537 PM CST Fri Jan 19 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 251 PM CST Fri Jan 19 2018

Low level moisture will continue to slowly increase tonight with
continued southerly flow. Low clouds across the Lower Mississippi
Valley and Southern Plains will build north impacting much of
southeast KS tonight. Breezy southerly flow and clouds will allow
for mild Jan minimum temperatures that may stay above 40 for some
locations across southeast KS while lows fall into the upper 20s
across our central KS counties.

Another mild day is anticipated across the area on Saturday, however
pesky low clouds may inhibit rising temperatures across much of
southeast KS.

As a vigorous mid/upper trough moves over the Southern Rockies Sat.
night, a cold front is progged to move south bisecting central KS
during the overnight hours. The NAM is much more aggressive driving
the front and associated cold air south when compared to the GFS
while the ECMWF appears to be more of a compromise. This should
result in a wide range of temperatures Sat night into early Sun. As
the pbl moistens late Sat night into early Sun morning we may see
some areas of drizzle/freezing drizzle across portions of central
KS. Large-scale forcing for ascent will increase as we move through
the day and into the evening hours on Sunday as the mid/upper trough
emerges from the Rockies with more widespread precipitation arriving
Sunday evening. Although the bulk of heavier snow is expected to
remain north and west of the forecast area, we may easily see 1-2
inches across Russell and perhaps Lincoln county before precipitation
diminishes from west to east early on Monday. We may also see
some elevated storms impact portions of southeast KS Sunday
afternoon and evening, however better chances for deep moist
convection will remain well south of the area.

Strong northwest winds will usher in cooler air in the wake of
the system on Monday with more seasonable highs in the 40s
anticipated. A wind advisory may be needed for much of the area if
current model trends persist.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 251 PM CST Fri Jan 19 2018

Mild and dry weather conditions are anticipated as we move through
the week with moderating temperatures. Well above normal
temperatures are expected to return by Thu with highs in the mid
and upper 50s. Another storm system is progged to move into the
Rockies toward the end of the period bringing increasing chances
for precipitation and some cooler air to the region.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 537 PM CST Fri Jan 19 2018

Shallow low level moisture return on the southerly flow will
promote MVFR/IFR stratus and patchy MVFR fog vsbys along and east
of the Kansas turnpike toward dawn, which will plague much of
this area through Saturday. The higher terrain of central Kansas
is expected to remain VFR until Saturday evening.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    38  57  38  58 /   0  10  10  20
Hutchinson      35  54  34  53 /   0  10  10  30
Newton          38  54  37  54 /   0  10  10  30
ElDorado        39  54  40  58 /   0  10  10  30
Winfield-KWLD   40  59  42  60 /   0  10  10  20
Russell         29  54  29  41 /   0   0  20  50
Great Bend      31  54  29  44 /   0   0  20  40
Salina          32  49  32  48 /   0  10  20  40
McPherson       35  52  33  51 /   0  10  10  30
Coffeyville     41  57  46  64 /  10  10  10  40
Chanute         40  51  43  60 /  10  10  20  40
Iola            39  51  43  59 /  10  10  20  40
Parsons-KPPF    40  51  45  62 /  10  10  10  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MWM
LONG TERM...MWM
AVIATION...KED



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