Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 241732
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1232 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

THE SHORTWAVE THAT BROUGHT OUR LIGHT RAIN WED NIGHT IS NOW TRACKING
ACROSS THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS HAS LEFT NW FLOW ALOFT
OVER THE PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK LEE TROUGHING EXTENDS FROM
WESTERN NEBRASKA THROUGH EASTERN CO.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

WITH LOCALLY DENSE FOG SHROUDING MOST OF KINGMAN COUNTY HAVE FINE-
TUNED AREAS OF FOG DESCRIPTOR UNTIL ~10AM FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL KS. DUE TO
ITS LOCALIZED NATURE HAVE CHECKED SWING ON ISSUING DENSE FOG ADVISORY
FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL KS BUT AM OBVIOUSLY CONTINUING TO MONITOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

NOT MUCH IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE FOR TODAY THROUGH SAT WITH NW FLOW
ALOFT REMAINING IN PLACE WITH WEAK LEE TROUGHING. MODELS HAVE
REMAINED VERY CONSISTENT IN INCREASING 850MB TEMPS FOR TODAY AND
ESPECIALLY SAT. 80S WILL BE COMMON AREA WIDE TODAY WITH UPPER 80S
A GOOD BET FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR SAT. WOULD NOT BE
SHOCKED TO SEE A COUPLE RECORDS BROKEN SAT...ESPECIALLY FOR
WICHITA WHICH HAS A RECORD HIGH ON SAT OF 87.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO COME ONSHORE OVER THE PACIFIC NW
BY SUN MORNING AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES BY SUN
NIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE VERY WARM CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FOR
SUN WITH STRONGER SOUTH/SW WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARDS A MORE
PROGRESSIVE/OPEN WAVE TO SLIDE ACROSS THE PLAINS FOR MON INTO MON
NIGHT. FEELING MORE AND MORE CONFIDENT THAT WE ARE NOT LOOKING AT
A WIDESPREAD DECENT RAINFALL EVENT WITH SE KS HAVING THE BEST SHOT
AT SEEING MORE THAN A TENTH INCH MON NIGHT. BY TUE...PRECIP WILL
ALL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE BIGGEST CHANGE THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL HAVE IS TO PUSH TEMPS BACK DOWN TO SEASONAL NORMALS
BY TUE WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S EXPECTED TO REMAIN THROUGH THUR.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

VFR HAS RETURNED TO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST
WINDS AND FEW-SCT CIRRUS ACROSS THE AREA. DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S HAVE ADVECTED ACROSS THE AREA AND AS WINDS
DECOUPLE AND A SUBTLE TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES THE AREA
TONIGHT...AREAS OF FOG MAY REDEVELOP ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. TRENDED AREA TAFS IN THIS DIRECTION WITH
THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR REDUCED VISIBILITIES DEVELOPING AFTER
09-10Z LINGERING THROUGH AROUND 15Z ON SAT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    84  58  87  60 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      85  56  87  58 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          83  57  86  59 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        83  58  86  59 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   84  58  87  60 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         86  50  85  54 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      85  52  85  56 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          85  53  86  56 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       84  55  86  58 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     81  57  85  59 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         81  57  84  60 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            81  57  83  58 /   0   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    81  57  84  60 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







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