000
FXUS63 KICT 120506
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1206 AM CDT WED JUN 12 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT TUE JUN 11 2013

SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE OCCASIONALLY BEEN REACHING MARGINAL WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA ALONG/W OF I-135 THIS AFTERNOON. NO CHANGES
PLANNED TO CURRENT ADVISORY WHICH IS SET TO EXPIRE AT 01Z. ANY
HIGH-BASED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THAT CAN DEVELOP OVER NORTHWEST KS
LATE THIS PM/EARLY EVE WILL HAVE GUSTY WIND POTENTIAL WITH A MAINLY
NORTHEASTWARD TRACK...SO WILL MAINTAIN DRY FORECAST FOR ALL AREAS.
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER THIS WILL HAVE A LIMITED AND TEMPORARY FLATTENING EFFECT
OF THE UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL CONUS. A WEAK
COLD FRONT SLIDES SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND WITH
CONVERGENCE SOMEWHAT WEAK AND MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES VERY
WARM...THE FRONT WILL LIKELY COME THROUGH DRY ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY
VALUES ARE QUITE IMPRESSIVE. FRONT WILL NOT REACH THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES TIL MID-LATE PM SO HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S TO 103 ARE
SLATED. THURSDAY DOES NOT LOOK AS HOT BUT IT WILL BE MORE HUMID AS
MOISTURE POOLS ALONG/N OF RETURNING WARM FRONT. THIS WILL KEEP
HEAT INDICES UNCOMFORTABLE IN SOUTH CENTRAL KS. THE WARM SECTOR
WILL RETURN TO OUR AREA FRIDAY WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND HOT
AIR ACCORDING TO LOW-LEVEL THICKNESS PROGS. CENTRAL SECTIONS WILL
HAVE HIGHS APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING THE CENTURY MARK.

JMC

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT TUE JUN 11 2013

WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS STILL PROGGED TO TOP THE UPPER RIDGE OVER
KS/OK SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...WITH A MORE VIGOROUS SYSTEM MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE WEAKER
SHORTWAVE WILL RESULT IN SMALL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN OUR AREA
MAINLY LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. RESIDUAL SLIGHT CHANCES
OF STORMS COULD LINGER INTO MONDAY WITH WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A SLIGHT DOWNWARD TREND IN
TEMPERATURES IS INDICATED SATURDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH VERY WARM
READINGS SATURDAY TRENDING CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES BY MONDAY
ALTHOUGH THIS MAY BE ONLY TEMPORARY.

JMC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1206 AM CDT WED JUN 12 2013

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AT ALL SITES. NOT
ANTICIPATING STORMS ALONG THE KS/NEBRASKA BORDER TO MAKE IT TO
KRSL OR KSLN. GUSTY WINDS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE
NIGHT. 00Z NAM A BIT SLOWER...BUT STILL EXPECT FRONT WILL PUSH
INTO NORTHERN TERMINALS AROUND SUNRISE...BUT SLOWER AT OTHER
SITES. STILL THINK FRONT WILL LIKELY HANG UP MOVING ACROSS FLINT
HILLS IN PEAK HEATING. -HOWERTON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    70  92  72 100 /  10   0  10  10
HUTCHINSON      69  92  73 100 /  10  10  10  10
NEWTON          68  90  71  98 /  10   0  10  10
ELDORADO        68  89  70  97 /  10   0  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   71  92  72 100 /  10   0   0   0
RUSSELL         66  91  73 102 /   0  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      67  93  73 102 /   0  10  10  10
SALINA          67  89  72  99 /  10  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       68  91  72  99 /  10  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     72  90  70  96 /  10   0  10  10
CHANUTE         70  88  69  94 /  10   0  10  10
IOLA            69  87  68  93 /  10   0  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    71  89  70  95 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$