Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 122331
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
531 PM CST Mon Feb 12 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 319 PM CST Mon Feb 12 2018

Modest isentropic ascent and associated mid-level moistening may
support scattered sprinkles and/or flurries across portions of
northwest and north-central Kansas this afternoon and evening.
Thinking this light activity should remain just north of the
forecast area.

The slow warming trend will continue Tuesday, as atmospheric
thickness and south/southwest winds increase, with forecast high
temperatures reaching the low 50s most areas.

Increasing isentropic ascent and low-level moisture transport may
support patchy light drizzle Tuesday night across far southeast
Kansas. Additionally, removed fog from the forecast Tuesday night,
as moisture advection will likely not be stout enough to overcome
a relatively mild and mixy boundary layer. Plus, upslope
component to wind will be minimized due to south/southwest
boundary layer flow. Definitely some increasing low clouds though,
especially southeast Kansas, with possible patchy areas of 3-5
mile visibilities.

Warmest day of the week will be Wednesday, with low-level
thickness values supporting high temperatures in the 60s and
70s...warmest across south-central Kansas. Record highs likely
won`t be in jeopardy though. Southwest winds will be rather
breezy, especially over the southeast quarter of Kansas.

Another mild day expected Thursday, with highs in the 50s-60s,
although low 70s are possible across far southeast Kansas.
Scattered showers are possible across far southeast Kansas,
especially Thursday late afternoon and evening, as a strong cold
front approaches from the north. This cold front will usher in
much cooler air Thursday night on strong and gusty north winds.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 319 PM CST Mon Feb 12 2018

Much cooler temperatures in the 30s are expected Friday, as
chilly Canadian high pressure settles south across Mid- America.
However, a quick warm-up into the 50s and possibly 60s are
expected for the weekend. Light precipitation chances enter back
into the forecast Sunday night into next week. Quite a bit of
uncertainty exists surrounding this period, but current data
suggests some light wintry precipitation is possible Sunday night
into next week. Stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 518 PM CST Mon Feb 12 2018

Some mid clouds and perhaps a few sprinkles will remain possible
early this evening across portions of central KS, however VFR will
prevail across the forecast area through the 24-hr period. Wind
speeds will increase a bit on Tuesday with speeds of 15 to 20
knots common during much of the day. We may see some LLWS develop across
portions of central KS during the early morning hours as the
nocturnal LLJ increases from the southwest. As confidence
increases, KGBD and KRSL may be updated to mention LLWS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 319 PM CST Mon Feb 12 2018

Breezy south/southwest winds will support marginally very high
grassland fire danger across central Kansas Tuesday. Very high
grassland fire danger is expected Wednesday afternoon as well
across much of south-central, east- central and southeast Kansas,
due to mild temperatures and breezy southwest winds. Strong/gusty
north winds are expected behind a cold frontal passage Thursday
evening through Friday morning. Very high grassland fire danger is
also expected Sunday, as temperatures and south winds increase
once again.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    24  52  39  70 /   0   0   0   0
Hutchinson      23  52  37  69 /   0   0   0   0
Newton          23  51  38  68 /   0   0   0   0
ElDorado        23  51  39  68 /   0   0   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   25  52  40  70 /   0   0   0   0
Russell         22  54  32  68 /   0   0   0   0
Great Bend      22  54  33  70 /   0   0   0   0
Salina          22  53  36  68 /   0   0   0   0
McPherson       23  52  37  68 /   0   0   0   0
Coffeyville     24  51  40  68 /   0   0  20   0
Chanute         23  50  37  66 /   0   0  10   0
Iola            23  49  36  65 /   0   0  10   0
Parsons-KPPF    24  50  39  67 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADK
LONG TERM...ADK
AVIATION...MWM
FIRE WEATHER...ADK



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