Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 261147
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
547 AM CST Sat Nov 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 226 AM CST Sat Nov 26 2016

Strong WAA is expected today and tomorrow ahead of a strong frontal
system that will move through Monday. Winds today will be out of
the South and will pick up into the 15 to 25 mph range as the
pressure gradient begins to tighten up. Low level moisture will
also be on the increase as well. By Sunday, the pressure gradient
as well as the thermal gradient will continue to tighten turning
on the wind machine for Sunday afternoon and evening. These
Southerly winds are expected to be at least advisory level for
Sunday afternoon. GFS/ECMWF are in agreement on the winds and
indicate 925mb winds in the 40 to 45 knot range with 850mb winds
in the 60 knot range for Sunday afternoon. Given this low level
shear, surface winds gusts in the 40 knot range are likely Sunday
afternoon. Low level moisture will be on the increase keeping low
clouds in the area. This will prevent the stronger winds above
from mixing down. Precipitation will pick up Sunday afternoon as
strong 850mb and 700mb moisture transport will develop. Showers
will be the primary weather maker. Widespread thunderstorms are
not likely as the mid level instability is just not there. Can`t
rule out an isolated thunderstorm though as the dry line could
provide the needed lift to trigger thunder. The showers and
isolated thunderstorms will end by Sunday evening after the dry
line passes. Winds will remain brisk but should drop below
advisory level overnight as the thermal gradient weakens but will
still remain brisk overnight as the pressure gradient will remain
tight.

The main front will come through during the day Monday.  Could see
max temps for Monday slightly higher if this frontal system comes
through slower like the last couple of fronts.  Winds will diminish
some as the front approaches. Temperatures will drop rather quick
behind the front as the CAA behind the front looks rather strong for
the first 24 hours after frontal passage.  Winds will pick up again
but will likely remain below advisory level Monday afternoon and
Monday night.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 226 AM CST Sat Nov 26 2016

A cooler weather pattern appears to be setting up behind Monday`s
front.  Temperatures will be much closer to normal or just below
normal for this time of year.  Gulf moisture will be cut off so the
small short waves that will be coming through during the week will
not have enough moisture to produce precipitation.  As such, partly
cloudy skies will rule most of next week with near normal
temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 539 AM CST Sat Nov 26 2016

Aviation concerns will be fog over southeast KS for the next few
hours with attention turning to low clouds early Sun morning.

Radiational fog developed over se KS a couple hours ago and will
persist through around 15z. KCNU may see vsbys reduced to around
3sm this morning. Return flow will increase today ahead of an
approaching upper wave. While confidence is high that VFR
conditions will persist today, confidence is also high that low
clouds will make their way into the area after midnight and will
affect the entire area by 12z Sun. At a minimum will see MVFR
levels and if models continue their consistency, we should
eventually see some IFR levels introduced with later forecasts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    62  46  61  44 /   0   0  60  20
Hutchinson      62  45  61  41 /   0   0  60  20
Newton          61  45  60  43 /   0   0  60  20
ElDorado        61  45  60  46 /   0   0  60  40
Winfield-KWLD   62  47  62  46 /   0   0  60  40
Russell         63  44  64  37 /   0   0  50  10
Great Bend      64  45  63  37 /   0   0  40  10
Salina          63  46  62  40 /   0   0  60  20
McPherson       62  45  61  40 /   0   0  60  20
Coffeyville     60  45  59  53 /   0   0  50  50
Chanute         60  44  58  50 /   0  10  60  50
Iola            59  44  57  50 /   0  10  60  50
Parsons-KPPF    60  45  58  51 /   0  10  50  50

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ELM
LONG TERM...ELM
AVIATION...RBL



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