Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 181739
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1239 PM CDT Mon Sep 18 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 220 AM CDT Mon Sep 18 2017

The challenge for today will be the timing of the rain and the
subsequent clearing this afternoon. Expect some widespread
showers and thunderstorms this morning. Lift, shear and
instability are not strong enough to allow for severe weather
though. By the afternoon, the wave that brought the shower and
thunderstorm activity will move off to the east. Clearing will be
slow as mid level subsidence dose not seem to set up until much
later in the afternoon. Cut max temperatures for today to
compensate.

Tuesday, the next frontal system will start to encroach on the
region. The pressure gradient will tighten up and southerly winds
will pick up. Advisory level winds are possible in the Central
Kansas during the afternoon. Thunderstorm possibilities are
rather low despite the proximity of the frontal system. While
forcing and shear look good for this time, moisture is very
limited for Tuesday. This front will not move quickly and will not
push through the region until Wednesday afternoon and evening.
Moisture transport will be a little stronger by this time as will
the shear and instability. However, CIN looks to be rather strong
as well which will keep the thunderstorm activity down so
widespread thunderstorm activity is not expected.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 220 AM CDT Mon Sep 18 2017

Long range remains challenging as both the GFS and ECMWF still
have a significant rain event for the upcoming weekend. The
biggest change in both models is both are much slower. Moisture
transport from the Gulf of Mexico looks to establish itself over
much of Friday and Saturday but POPs will remain low for this time
period. Sunday this front will finally move into the region bring
the chances for showers and thunderstorms back into the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Mon Sep 18 2017

VFR conditions expected to prevail thru the forecast valid period.
Clearing will continue to progress eastward from central to
eastern Kansas this afternoon, although some cumulus are expected
to develop with diurnal heating. Isolated convection is possible
this evening and tonight, though too remote to mention in the
terminals for now. South winds will increase markedly during
Tuesday morning, becoming strong and gusty across central Kansas
just beyond the forecast valid time.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    85  68  93  71 /  20  20   0   0
Hutchinson      87  67  93  68 /  10  10   0   0
Newton          84  66  91  70 /  30  20  10   0
ElDorado        83  67  90  71 /  40  20  10   0
Winfield-KWLD   85  69  92  72 /  30  20  10   0
Russell         87  63  95  62 /  10  10   0   0
Great Bend      87  64  94  62 /  10  10   0   0
Salina          86  67  94  69 /  20  10   0  10
McPherson       86  67  92  68 /  20  10   0   0
Coffeyville     83  68  90  73 /  70  20  10  10
Chanute         81  68  89  72 /  80  20  10  10
Iola            80  67  89  71 /  80  20  10  10
Parsons-KPPF    83  69  90  73 /  70  20  20  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ELM
LONG TERM...ELM
AVIATION...KED



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