Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 151733
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1133 AM CST Mon Jan 15 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 335 AM CST Mon Jan 15 2018

Forecast Headlines/Highlights:
1) Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect for areas roughly
along & northeast of a line from around Russell, to McPherson, El
Dorado & Cedar Vale until noon today.

2) Dangerous wind chills still scheduled for all areas from Monday
Night until late Tuesday Morning.

Today:
Arctic Front that has been a major topic for almost a week crossed
the Nebraska/KS state line just after mid-night. NW-SE oriented
snowband has shifted into KS, extending from around KGLD to around
Ottawa while areas of light rain continue across South-Central and
Southeast KS. The front will continue to surge almost due south &
will cross the KS/OK state line early this morning. As the Arctic
Front crosses the KS/OK state line the post-frontal light snow
would likewise shift south & south/southeast & would be confined
to OK & Southern MO by midday. With the greater accumulations
slated for the areas identified in the "Forecast Headlines" will
continue the Winter Weather Advisory for these areas. (Although
it`s likely the advisory may be cancelled for the Central KS
counties by 9 AM CST.

Tonight & Tue:
The STRONG Arctic High, which covers nearly all of Saskatchewan as
well as Western Manitoba, will drift S/SE & would cover all of the
Northern & Central Plains by Tue morning. Temperatures plunging
into an abyss coupled with north winds from generally 10 to 15 mph
induced by the strong Arctic High will of course produce dangerous
wind chills in all areas tonight & Tue morning. With the projected
wind chills now expected to drop to around 15 below along the OK
border have expanded the Wind Chill Advisory across the remainder
of the forecast area. For sake of consistency the duration of the
advisory remains intact from 6 PM until 11 AM.

Tue Night:
We`ll continue to `chill out` as the Arctic High continues to
drift further across KS & MO. Although winds will become light &
variable, wind chills close to 15 below are still likely across
Central KS with wind chills from 6 to 12 below projected across
South-Central KS.

Wed & Wed Night:
Temps will begin to recover as the weakening high pressure center
drifts just east of KS to enable southerly winds (albeit 5 to 15
mph) to return.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 335 AM CST Mon Jan 15 2018

Thu-Sat:
Nice warmup occurs across the KS Neighborhood as a surface trough
deepens from the northwestern plains to eastern NM. Highs will be
in the 50s areawide on Sat with OK-bordering areas approaching 60.

Rest Of Next Weekend:
The afore-mentioned Western Plains surface trough will undergo
rapid cyclogenesis in response to a rapidly strengthening upper-
deck wave that`ll dig across the Desert Southwest Sat Night & Sun.
This would force the surface low east into KS & OK Sat Night &
Sun. There is disagreement between the GFS (stronger & further
north over KS) & ECMWF (weaker & centered over the Western Red
River) Sat Night & early Sun. This would drag a cold front SE
across most of KS late Sat Night & Sun Morning. This front won`t
be nearly as strong as its predecessor but areas of light rain are
possible Sat evening with Central KS experiencing a change to
light snow while a light rain/light snow mixture is anticipated
for South-Central & part of Southeast KS Sun Morning.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1129 AM CST Mon Jan 15 2018

IFR and MVFR conditions will be clearing from the region today.
RSL and SLN have already cleared from lower ceilings and
visibilities. This clearing trend will continue through the day
and hold through the night with VFR conditions. The main issue
will be winds over most of the region. Wind gusts up to 35 mph are
possible in most areas but luckily cross winds should not be
problems for most terminals. This wind will die down some during
the overnight hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    29   0  14   2 /  70   0   0   0
Hutchinson      24  -2  13  -1 /  50   0   0   0
Newton          24  -3  11  -1 /  50   0   0   0
ElDorado        27  -2  12   1 /  70   0   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   32   1  15   2 /  60   0   0   0
Russell         18  -4  13   0 /  20   0   0   0
Great Bend      21  -3  15   0 /  40   0   0   0
Salina          19  -4  13  -2 /  20   0   0   0
McPherson       21  -4  12  -2 /  40   0   0   0
Coffeyville     32   2  15   1 /  80   0   0   0
Chanute         25  -1  13   0 /  70   0   0   0
Iola            24  -3  12   0 /  60   0   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    29   1  14   0 /  70   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST today for KSZ094>096-
098>100.

Wind Chill Advisory from 6 PM this evening to noon CST Tuesday
for KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EPS
LONG TERM...EPS
AVIATION...ADK


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