Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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587
FXUS63 KICT 141754
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1154 AM CST Tue Nov 14 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 303 AM CST Tue Nov 14 2017

Water vapor imagery shows shortwave now on shore over the Pacific
Northwest. At the surface, lee troughing continues to increase
across eastern CO/western KS allowing strong moisture advection to
remain over the central Plains.

Strong low level moisture transport is expected to remain over
the area for most of the day with isentropic upglide right off of
the surface remaining strong. This will result in areas of drizzle
remaining for most of the forecast area. By 00z Wed, upper
impulse will be tracking over the northern Plains with 850-700mb
moisture transport increasing across southeast KS. Should see a
transition from drizzle to rain tonight over mainly southeast KS.
Confidence in a storm or two has decreased compared to yesterday`s
model runs, as the 00z runs have less instability over se KS.

Cold front will be south of the forecast area by 15z Wed, but
airmass behind the front still doesn`t look that cold, with near
normal highs anticipated. By 12z Thu, shortwave energy is again
expected to be coming on shore over the Pacific Northwest. This
will again result in lee troughing strengthening and the central
Plains quickly getting back into a low level moisture advection
pattern like we have already seen several times this month. So,
currently expecting at least eastern KS to get back into a period
of drizzle, starting Thu afternoon and continuing through Thu
night.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 303 AM CST Tue Nov 14 2017

Both ECMWF and GFS are still trying to swing a more robust
shortwave across the Plains Fri night through Sat. The GFS remains
faster with this feature compared to the ECMWF and thus also
pushes the cold front through faster. The GFS brings the front
through during the day Fri while the ECMWF waits until Fri night.
While we are not looking at a significant rain or snow event, not
out of the question to see a mix of rain or snow behind the front.
The passing of this wave is expected to commence a pattern change
with more pronounced upper riding setting up over the Rockies and
sharp troughing over the northeast CONUS. This will bring a
drying out period across the Plains with near or slightly below
normal temps.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1131 AM CST Tue Nov 14 2017

LIFR and IFR will persist across much of the region today with low
level cloud cover across the area. Conditions should improve some
this afternoon and tonight, especially west of I-135, but should
still remain low- end MVFR or IFR. A cold front approaching from
the northwest will shift winds to northwesterly tonight, and will
clear skies from northwest to southeast in its wake. VFR
conditions will return during the morning hours on Wednesday,
with aviation concerns diminishing towards the end of this TAF
period.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    61  46  60  37 /  20  30   0   0
Hutchinson      60  45  59  35 /  20  20   0   0
Newton          59  45  58  36 /  20  30   0   0
ElDorado        59  48  59  37 /  30  50   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   60  52  60  39 /  30  40  10   0
Russell         59  40  58  33 /  10  10   0   0
Great Bend      59  41  58  34 /  10  10   0   0
Salina          60  43  59  34 /  20  20   0   0
McPherson       60  44  58  34 /  20  20   0   0
Coffeyville     57  54  62  39 /  50  80  40   0
Chanute         56  51  60  37 /  40  80  20   0
Iola            56  50  59  36 /  40  80  20   0
Parsons-KPPF    56  52  61  38 /  40  80  30   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RBL
LONG TERM...RBL
AVIATION...TAV



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