Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 261739
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1239 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1005 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

THIS AFTERNOON:
A SMALL AREA OF LIGHT RAIN OCCURRING FROM MCPHERSON...THROUGH
MARION AND NORTHERN CHASE COUNTIES...THEN NE TO AROUND LAWRENCE
CONTINUES TO DRIFT SE. HAVE UPDATED ALL GRIDS...POPS...WX
(INCLUDING THE REMOVAL OF THUNDER) & QPF UNTIL 1 PM TO REFLECT
THESE TRENDS. REMAINDER OF FORECAST IS KEPT INTACT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS RATHER STRONG THIS EARLY THIS MORNING AND
COULD KEEP SOME LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS GOING OVER EASTERN KANSAS
THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AGAIN
FOR TODAY ACROSS KANSAS. THE DEWPOINTS DID MIX OUT A BIT MORE
YESTERDAY AND SHOULD DO THE SAME TODAY...HOWEVER HEAT INDEX VALUES
WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO WARRANT CURRENT HEAT ADVISORY. THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO RE-DEVELOP AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO/NORTHWEST KANSAS.
MEANWHILE...CURRENT SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A UPPER
LEVEL WAVE OVER NEVADA WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR LATER TODAY. THIS UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL
CAUSE THE LOW LEVEL JET TO INCREASE AND FOCUS MOISTURE TRANSPORT
INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS. A COMPLEX OF STORMS LOOKS TO MOVE EASTWARD
AND FEED OFF THIS MOISTURE TRANSPORT...AND COULD AFFECT CENTRAL
KANSAS BY THIS EVENING OR OVERNIGHT.

HEADING INTO MONDAY THE SURFACE FRONT SHOULD MOVE WELL NORTH OF
KANSAS WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES NORTH AS WELL. THE HEAT WILL
CONTINUE FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY ACROSS THE REGION AND HEAT HEADLINES
COULD BE EXTENDED AS A RESULT. MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT ON SHOWING A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPPING SOUTHWARD INTO KANSAS ON TUESDAY. DECENT
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD GIVE WAY TO MORE
NUMEROUS STORMS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL FINALLY SINK SOUTHWARD INTO KANSAS WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND DECENT CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AS LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW A FEW UPPER LEVEL
WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE DAYTIME HIGHS COULD BE
EVEN COOLER ESPECIALLY IF THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION LINGER
THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS. WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO
SETTLE IN ACROSS KANSAS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH LIMITED CHANCES
OF STORMS AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR LATE JULY
CLIMO.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

ALL AREAS TO MAINTAIN VFR STATUS WITH ~10,000FT ALTOCU & ~30,000FT
CIRROSTRATUS. A FEW TSRA MAY VENTURE INTO KRSL BTWN 06Z-12Z BUT
WITH TIMING CONFIDENCE AVG AT BEST HAVE LEFT OMITTED "VCTS"
MENTION UNTIL SUCH CONFIDENCE INCREASES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT   100  76 100  77 /  20  10   0   0
HUTCHINSON     100  76 101  77 /  20  20  10  10
NEWTON         100  76 100  76 /  20  10  10  10
ELDORADO        98  75  99  76 /  20  10  10   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   98  76  99  76 /  10  10   0   0
RUSSELL        100  75 102  77 /  10  40  10  10
GREAT BEND     100  75 102  76 /  10  40  10  10
SALINA         101  76 102  78 /  20  20  10  10
MCPHERSON      100  76 101  77 /  20  20  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     97  75  97  76 /  10  10   0   0
CHANUTE         96  74  96  76 /  10  10  10  10
IOLA            95  74  96  75 /  20  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    97  75  97  76 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ032-033-047>053-
067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$



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