Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 170245
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
945 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 945 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

LATEST NAM/RUC/HRRR SUPPORT BETTER CHANCES FOR NOCTURNAL ELEVATED
CONVECTION ALONG AND EAST OF A KSLN-KCNU LINE WHICH IS CLOSE TO
THE GOING FORECAST. SLIGHT TWEAK WAS MADE TO REMOVE PRECIP CHANCES
FOR WICHITA...THOUGH WILL RETAIN SLIGHT CHANCES JUST NORTH FOR THE
NEWTON AND EL DORADO AREAS.

KED

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW LED TO LOTS OF
LOW CLOUDS OVER MOST OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF KS THIS MORNING...BUT
AFTERNOON HEATING HAS LED TO CLOUDS BEGINNING TO BURN OFF.
INCREASED UPSLOPE FLOW MAY ACTUALLY INCREASE THE CLOUD COVER OVER
CENTRAL KS FOR MOST OF THE EVENING HOURS...AS 850-700H WARM
ADVECTION OVER THE TOP OF THIS SHALLOW LOW LAYER MOISTURE
INCREASES.

THIS WARM ADVECTION/MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE FOR
THE MOST OF THE EVENING HOURS. NOSE OF THIS WARM ADVECTION WILL
INCREASE THE 310-315K ISENTROPIC ASCENT OVER THE ERN EDGE OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY AROUND MIDNIGHT...GENERALLY ALONG A LING FROM KSLN
TO KCNU.  THINK THIS ASCENT AND MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE OF
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THIS LINE INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
ON WED.  BOTH THE GFS AND NAM/WRF SHOWING FAIRLY HEALTHY ELEVATED
CAPE VALUES OF 1700-2500 J/KG...WITH BULK SHEAR OF 50-60 KTS
SUGGESTING SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE ALONG
THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO THE MORNING HOURS ON
WED.

THIS WARM ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO SOME OF THIS CONVECTION LINGERING
UNTIL MID MORNING ON WED OVER SE KS. BUT AS THE AFTERNOON
PROGRESSES...MODELS SUGGEST THAT A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS
KS AND STALL JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF FORECAST AREA FOR WED
AFTERNOON/EVENING. A WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT AND CONVERGENCE ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY...AND POSSIBLE ENHANCEMENT OF THE CONVERGENCE DUE TO A
BACKDOOR FRONT PUSHING INTO NE KS...WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS ON WED MAINLY
ALONG A LINE FROM KSLN TO KCNU.

THE WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT WILL ALSO LEAD TO SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LINGERING OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA INTO THU AS WELL AS WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG ANY REMNANT BOUNDARY
MAY CONTINUE FOR AREAS FROM KSLN TO KCNU INTO THU AFTERNOON.

THIS SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL LEAD TO A NICE WARMUP IN TEMPS FOR
WED-THU. COULD SEE MAX TEMPS CLIMB ALMOST 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...ESPECIALLY OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KS WHERE SOME
AREAS MAY CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 90S.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

AS THU NIGHT PROGRESSES INTO FRI...ATTENTION WILL QUICKLY TURN TO
THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ODILE...AS MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST
THIS TROPICAL STORM SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY LIFT EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE SW US...AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE PLAINS FOR LATE FRI NIGHT INTO
SAT.  SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW QUICKLY THIS SYSTEM AND ITS TROPICAL
CONNECTION WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS...AS ECMWF SHOWS IT PHASING
WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE OVER THE PLAINS ON SAT. THE GFS IS
TAKING A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST TRACK STRAIGHT ACROSS KS.
BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SUGGESTS A SLOWER SOLUTION...WHICH WOULD LEAD
TO THE HIGHEST POPS FOR LATE FRI NIGHT IN CENTRAL KSN AND ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FOR SAT.  PATH OF THIS SYSTEM WILL NATURALLY
DICTATE WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL OCCUR...BUT FOR NOW...WILL
GO SOLID CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS...AND WORK OUT QPF NUMBERS AS THE
WEEKEND APPROACHES.

GIVEN THE MOISTURE FETCH AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AND ITS TROPICAL
CONNECTION...WITH HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES...MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS SUGGEST A LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT AS THIS SYSTEM
MOVES ACROSS. WEAKER SHEAR AND LOWER INSTABILITY VALUES USUALLY
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TYPE OF SYSTEM WILL PROBABLY MEAN MORE OF
SHOWER AND EMBEDDED THUNDER CHANCE....WITH LOW TOPPED STORMS. BUT
WITH THAT SAID...EXPECT VERY EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 629 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

ELEVATED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS
EASTERN KANSAS. THESE STORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL KANSAS ALONG THE I-135 CORRIDOR AROUND MIDNIGHT... BEFORE
SHIFTING EAST THROUGH DAWN AND INTO THE MORNING HOURS. FOR NOW
HAVE INSERTED VCTS IN KSLN AND KCNU WHERE CONFIDENCE IS A BIT
HIGHER...THOUGH BETTER COVERAGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEAST AND
EAST CENTRAL KANSAS. OTHERWISE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNING
NORTHWARD IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN MVFR STRATUS CIGS LATER TONIGHT
WITH POTENTIAL FOR IFR CATEGORY. HOWEVER WILL LIMIT MENTION TO THE
HIGHER PROBABILITY MVFR CIGS FOR NOW.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    66  90  67  89 /  10  10  20  10
HUTCHINSON      65  90  66  90 /  10  20  20  10
NEWTON          64  87  65  88 /  20  20  30  20
ELDORADO        64  88  65  88 /  20  20  20  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   67  90  67  89 /  10  10  10  20
RUSSELL         63  88  65  89 /  10  20  30  10
GREAT BEND      63  89  64  90 /  10  20  20  10
SALINA          63  87  65  84 /  20  20  40  20
MCPHERSON       64  88  65  88 /  20  20  30  10
COFFEYVILLE     64  87  66  86 /  30  30  30  30
CHANUTE         62  85  65  84 /  30  30  30  30
IOLA            61  84  65  81 /  30  30  40  30
PARSONS-KPPF    63  86  66  86 /  30  30  30  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$






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