Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KICT 020756
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
256 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

OVERNIGHT STORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN LINGER INTO THE MORNING
HOURS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS WHILE DRIFTING EASTWARD
AND DIMINISHING BY MIDDAY OR EARLIER. A DIFFUSE WARM FRONT IS PROGGED TO
LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AND MAY
BECOME A FOCUS FOR RENEWED STORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. BETTER CHANCES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR
TONIGHT WHEN A DEVELOPING NOCTURNAL LLJ TRANSPORTS MOISTURE NORTH
INTO CENTRAL KANSAS. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN
SLIGHTLY WHEN COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...0-6KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 35 KT
COMBINED WITH MLCAPES GREATER THAN 3000 J/KG WILL SUPPORT VIGOROUS
UPDRAFT WITH ANY ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
ALONG THE DIFFUSE WARM FRONT OR RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE A THREAT INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING AS THE H7
THERMAL RIDGE ADVECTS NORTH AND EAST OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...A FEW STORMS MAY LINGER ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST KANSAS VERY EARLY ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE CLEARING FROM WEST
TO EAST. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 90S. ANOTHER DAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID AND UPPER 90S IS ANTICIPATED ON THURSDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT
ARRIVES THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING INCREASING CHANCES FOR STORMS AND
MUCH COOLER CANADIAN AIR SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

UNSETTLED WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
STATES LATE IN THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT IS
PROGGED TO MEANDER ACROSS THE AREA AS WE REMAIN SITUATED ON THE
NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE MID/UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE TEMPERATURES REMAIN SEASONABLY COOL WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S. ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

IN THE NEAR TERM...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KS. WILL
CARRY A TEMPO TSRA AT CNU TERMINAL WHERE COVERAGE SHOULD BE
GREATER...AND A VCTS AT ICT. MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE IN THE
EARLY AM MAINLY IN CENTRAL KS WITH WEAK FLOW AND LOW DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS. ADDITIONAL STORMS COULD FIRE TUESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT
WITH RESIDUAL FRONT IN AREA AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE/INSTABILITY.
RELATIVELY HIGHER PROBABILITIES AT NIGHT EXPECTED WHEN ISENTROPIC
LIFT SHOULD INCREASE.

JMC


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    89  71  94  74 /  40  40  10  10
HUTCHINSON      88  70  93  74 /  30  40  10  10
NEWTON          87  69  93  74 /  30  50  10  10
ELDORADO        88  70  93  74 /  40  50  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   91  71  94  75 /  60  30  10  10
RUSSELL         87  68  97  74 /  20  20  10  10
GREAT BEND      86  68  95  73 /  20  20  10  10
SALINA          89  70  96  76 /  20  50  10  10
MCPHERSON       87  69  94  74 /  20  40  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     88  71  93  75 /  60  30  10  10
CHANUTE         88  70  93  74 /  60  50  20  10
IOLA            87  70  93  74 /  40  50  20  10
PARSONS-KPPF    89  71  93  75 /  60  40  20  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR KSZ071-072-
094>096-098>100.

&&

$$




USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.