Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 221930
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
230 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

A ROBUST SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES THIS
AFTERNOON...WILL TRANSLATE EAST OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY...WITH THIS FEATURE PROGGED TO SLOW/WEAKEN
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY. ELEVATED MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TRANSPORT ALONG
WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE 305-315K LAYER WILL RESULT IN A DECENT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDER ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS LATE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...WITH CHANCES TAPERING TO SLIGHT-NIL OVER FAR SOUTHEAST KS.
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WEAKENING/SHEARING WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...RAIN
CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DIMINISH...WHILE REMAINING PRIMARILY
OVER CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. FORECAST TEMPERATURES
ARE NEAR SEASONAL CLIMO DURING THE PERIOD. ONLY MODEST ADJUSTMENTS
WERE NEEDED TO THE GOING FORECAST WHICH APPEARS ON TRACK.

JMC

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

BROAD UPPER RIDGING WILL ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL/EASTERN CONUS
EARLY IN THE PERIOD...WITH A TRAPPED...WEAK SHEAR AXIS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDWEST. THE ABOVE FEATURES ARE PROGGED TO SLIDE EAST
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WHILE THE NEXT UPSTREAM UPPER TROUGH PUSHES
INTO THE ROCKIES. CONSENSUS OF THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS TO
KEEP A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVING IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES PERHAPS LATE
MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT. FORECAST TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 3 TO 5
DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL CLIMO.

JMC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
APPROACHING TROUGH WILL SPREAD MID LEVEL CLOUDS INTO AREA LATE IN
FORECAST PERIOD. SOME RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF
KRSL AFTER 1200 UTC. -HOWERTON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    56  80  59  79 /  10  20  40  30
HUTCHINSON      56  78  58  80 /  30  40  50  40
NEWTON          55  77  57  78 /  10  30  50  40
ELDORADO        54  78  57  78 /  10  20  40  30
WINFIELD-KWLD   56  79  59  80 /  10  20  30  30
RUSSELL         57  77  58  81 /  60  60  50  30
GREAT BEND      58  78  58  81 /  60  60  40  30
SALINA          56  77  58  79 /  30  50  60  40
MCPHERSON       55  77  58  80 /  20  50  60  40
COFFEYVILLE     54  78  55  79 /  10  10  10  10
CHANUTE         53  77  55  79 /  10  10  10  20
IOLA            53  76  55  79 /  10  10  20  20
PARSONS-KPPF    53  78  55  79 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




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