Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 271625
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1125 AM CDT Thu Jul 27 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1123 AM CDT Thu Jul 27 2017

A diffuse frontal boundary is currently located along and just west
of the KS turnpike.  Latest satellite imagery shows some clearing
just southeast of the frontal boundary, with the increased heating
and abundant low level moisture leading to some isolated showers or
storms across the flint hills and southeast KS.  Latest RAP data
shows some surface based instability continuing to pool just to the
south of the boundary with SBCAPE values around 1000 j/kg.

Latest hi-rez model solutions suggest that the frontal boundary will
make slow progress to the south for the afternoon hours.  Some
concern that this front will linger over SE KS for the late
afternoon hours, with afternoon heating possibly leading to renewed
surface based convection for late this afternoon, mainly across .
the Flint Hills. So will keep some low pops across SE and southern
KS for this chance. As the evening progresses, think the storm
chances will shift to the south-southeast as the front pushes into
nrn OK.

Some concern that the elevated 850-700h baroclinic zone may linger
over srn KS which may lead to some additional showers/storms across
srn KS late this evening.

Ketcham

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Thu Jul 27 2017

Today:
Mixed signals from models on extent/timing of precipitation.
Seems to be some consensus for a relative minimum across south
central KS later this morning before redeveloping this afternoon.
Highest chances should be in southeast KS in closer proximity to
front. One more day of triple digit heat indices is expected in
far southeast KS, but heat indices should remain shy of advisory
criteria. Highs today should be cooler than yesterday at nearly
all locations. Tough call on precipitation chances after 0000 UTC
with relatively moist low levels across southern half of forecast
area, but lift is below 850MB, so may have more sprinkles or
isolated rain showers.

Friday-Saturday
Cooler air will persist throughout the period, with temperatures
running a few to several degree below normals. Models still
hinting at a chance of storms grazing far northwest sections on
Saturday afternoon near eastern edge of moisture return. Chances
increase at bit Saturday night generally west of Highway 14.
Storms are likely across the High Plains, but it remains to be
seen how far east they will spread in the northwest flow regime.
-Howerton

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Thu Jul 27 2017

Little change in overall northwest flow pattern with surface high
over much of the midwest. There will likely be storms on the High
Plains most days, but remains to be seen how far east these will
spread. The various models ability to forecast weak waves that
would modulate precipitation is poor in this pattern, as evidenced
by variability in timing and location of QPF from model to model
and run to run. For consensus, have keep generally small chances
going on western fringe of forecast area, but expect the vast
amount of the area, the vast amount of the time, to remain dry.
Temperatures should remain at or below normals. -Howerton

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 603 AM CDT Thu Jul 27 2017

IFR or lower ceilings will spread south to about Wichita early
this morning in wake of a cold front, lifting to MVFR or higher
by mid morning or so. Isolated to scattered hit-or-miss showers
and perhaps a thunderstorm will impact portions of eastern and
southern Kansas today, as the deep frontal zone moves slowly south
through Mid-America. Thinking precipitation chances will be
greatest generally this morning.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    87  72  89  67 /  20  20   0   0
Hutchinson      86  70  89  65 /  20  10   0   0
Newton          85  69  87  65 /  20  10   0   0
ElDorado        86  70  87  65 /  20  20   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   92  72  90  67 /  30  20  10   0
Russell         87  67  89  66 /  10   0   0  10
Great Bend      86  67  90  66 /  10  10  10  10
Salina          87  69  90  66 /  10   0   0   0
McPherson       86  69  88  65 /  20  10   0   0
Coffeyville     94  73  88  66 /  40  30  10   0
Chanute         90  71  87  65 /  40  20  10   0
Iola            88  70  86  64 /  40  20   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    92  72  88  66 /  40  20  10   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KETCHAM
SHORT TERM...PJH
LONG TERM...PJH
AVIATION...ADK



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