Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 030527
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1227 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2015

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015

MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM FOR TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...THUS PROVIDING A HEALTHY CAP ALOFT WHICH SHOULD LIMIT
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO
DEVELOP TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT...HOWEVER
THERE IS ENOUGH OF A SIGNAL TOWARDS DAYBREAK AND WEDNESDAY MORNING
WHERE SOME ELEVATED ACTIVITY COULD TRY AND DEVELOP OVER THE FLINT
HILLS. OTHERWISE A WARM AND BREEZY DAY WILL BE ON TAP FOR
WEDNESDAY...WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SUGGESTING HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 80S TO POSSIBLE LOW 90S. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG
SLOWLY SOUTHWARD DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT OVER NORTHWESTERN KANSAS/SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA AS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASES. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
MOVE EASTWARD AND COULD AFFECT CENTRAL KANSAS NEAR THE I-70
CORRIDOR LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY
IF A STRONG ENOUGH OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SURGES SOUTHWARD.

WE ARE SEEING A DIFFERENCE IN THE GFS/ECMWF MODELS ON
TIMING/PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE FRONT FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
CONFIDENT THE WARMER ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RESIDE OVER
SOUTHERN KANSAS THIS PERIOD...WITH CENTRAL KANSAS IN THE TUG-A-WAR
ZONE ON DAYTIME HIGHS AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES. NIGHT TIME ELEVATED
CONVECTION LOOKS FAVORABLE BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS...WITH
THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY REMAINING NORTH/NORTHEAST OF THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015

THE SURFACE FRONT LOOKS TO LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ON
SATURDAY WITH WARM AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS
PREVAILING...HOWEVER LONG RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING A UPPER LEVEL
WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHICH WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY SUNDAY. THIS WILL PUSH THE SURFACE
FRONT BACK SOUTHWARD INTO KANSAS FOR SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WHERE IT COULD STALL OUT ACROSS THE REGION. WARM ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF THE FRONT AND COOLER NEAR NORMAL READINGS
NORTH OF THE STALLED OUT FRONT EXPECTED.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2015

HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF OF THE CONVECTION OVER
KANSAS WHICH SEEMS TO BE IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL BE BREEZY DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO
STAY MAINLY NORTH OF THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY...BUT LOW-MID CLOUDS
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER 00Z. DO KEEP THE SCATTERED CHANCE OF
MVFR CEILINGS TONIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AGAIN.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    68  90  68  90 /  10  20  20  10
HUTCHINSON      69  89  67  91 /  20  30  30  20
NEWTON          67  89  67  90 /  20  30  30  20
ELDORADO        69  89  67  89 /  10  20  30  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   68  90  68  90 /  10  10  10  10
RUSSELL         68  88  64  88 /  40  30  30  20
GREAT BEND      68  89  65  90 /  30  30  30  20
SALINA          69  88  66  88 /  40  30  40  20
MCPHERSON       68  88  66  90 /  20  30  30  20
COFFEYVILLE     67  88  69  87 /  10  10  10  10
CHANUTE         67  87  69  87 /  10  10  20  20
IOLA            67  87  69  87 /  10  20  20  20
PARSONS-KPPF    67  88  70  87 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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