Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 310806
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
306 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

NOTICEABLY COLDER AIR AND GUSTY NORTH WILL AFFECT THE
REGION TODAY AS CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AND COMBINED
WITH COLD DRY AIR WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR PREMIUM RADIATIONAL
COOLING...WITH OVERNIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING TEMPERATURES
DROPPING INTO THE 20S FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS UP OVER KANSAS...HOWEVER THE COOL AIR AND WINDS WILL MAKE
FOR BRISK WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH OUT THE DAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM TO NEAR NORMAL ON SUNDAY AS AIRMASS GRADUALLY MODIFIES
AND SOUTH WINDS WILL BECOME QUITE STRONG AND COULD REACH WIND
ADVISORY LEVELS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL SETUP OVER THE ROCKIES FOR
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...WHICH SHOULD BRING RAIN/ISOLATED STORM CHANCES
TO THE REGION AS GULF MOISTURE STREAMS NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH RAIN CHANCES TAPERING OFF.
QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE HEARTLAND.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

MAIN AVIATION CONCERN REMAINS LOWER CIGS MOVING IN DURING THE
NEXT FEW HOURS.

MVFR CIGS HAVE BEEN SURGING SOUTH OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA TONIGHT
AND WILL AFFECT AT LEAST THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE ONLY CHANGE MADE FROM THE PREVIOUS SET OF TAFS WAS TO RUN WITH
A TEMPO GROUP FOR BOTH KICT AND KSLN FOR MVFR CIGS.
MEANWHILE...CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER AT KCNU AND WILL RUN WITH A
PREVAILING GROUP THERE. AT THIS POINT...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT
CIGS WILL STAY ABOVE IFR LEVELS. BY THE LATE MORNING ALL SITES
SHOULD BE BACK TO VFR CONDITIONS.

LAWSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    49  25  53  40 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      47  25  53  39 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          46  24  52  38 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        48  23  53  38 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   50  25  54  40 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         46  27  55  40 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      47  28  55  40 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          46  24  53  39 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       45  24  53  39 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     49  22  52  37 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         47  21  50  37 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            46  21  50  37 /   0   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    48  22  51  37 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR
KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$



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