Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 310444
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1144 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 256 PM CDT Mon May 30 2016

Isolated storms will remain possible through early this evening over
southeast Kansas, near any remnant outflow boundaries left over from
a departing mesoscale convectively-induced vort max. Not expecting
these storms to be severe with less instability than yesterday
along with weak shear.

Otherwise, surface-based strong-severe storms should continue to
develop along the cold front/lee trough boundaries over the central
high plains through late afternoon into this evening, given low-
level convergence, 2000 MLCAPE and 25-30 knots deep-layer shear.
This activity should form into mcs clusters as it propagates slowly
east-southeastward overnight into a 40 knot southerly low-level
jet, with storms also aided by cold pool generation. This storm
activity should reach central/south-central Kansas toward and
after midnight. Moderate elevated instability, weak shear, high
precipitable water (1.25 - 1.40 in.), are progged along the nose
of the low-level jet overnight, which will support a few storms
with strong wind gusts and locally heavy rainfall rates. Trended a
little slower with the onset of storms tonight with very slow
propagation vectors.

Clusters of thunderstorms are expected to continue Tuesday with
the slow-moving front in the area along with various convective
outflow boundaries. As a result of storms overnight, would not be
surprised to have an mcv develop by Tuesday morning over the area
under weak flow aloft which could also aid in convective
development. Pockets of stronger diurnal heating will likely
support areas of MLCAPE of 1,000-2,000 J/KG with relatively weaker
deep-layer shear (25-30 KT). This will support a few strong-
severe, mainly multicell storm clusters, with wind gusts and
isolated large hail, along with locally heavy rainfall due to very
slow storm motions and high precipitable water. The strongest
cells would generally be from midday into early evening, with a
lack of a low-level jet progged Tuesday night. Precipitation
chances will gradually diminish from northwest to southeast across
the area from Tuesday night through Wednesday night, as the upper
trough moves from the northern plains into the western Great
Lakes, allowing the cold front to sink slowly southward.

Thursday is shaping up to be a very nice day weather-wise, with
seasonal temperatures, sunshine, light winds, and less humidity.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 256 PM CDT Mon May 30 2016

The ECMWF and GEFS were in reasonable agreement with the large-scale
upper pattern across the CONUS during this extended period. They
indicate the development of a longwave upper trough over the eastern
CONUS, with upper ridge development over the western states and
Rockies. A primarily northerly mid-upper flow pattern is expected
over the Kansas region, which will keep temperatures near seasonal
readings for early June. Small chances for thunderstorms may exist near/north
of I-70 Friday evening, in association with a southward moving
front, although moisture will be limited. Overall, most if not
all of this extended period looks to remain dry.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1140 PM CDT Mon May 30 2016

A line of showers/storms will move eastward across the region
overight, with more showers and storms lingering across the area
for Tuesday. Low clouds around 4000ft will be common across much
of the region on Tuesday, however some CIGs could drop below
4000ft in the vicinity of a thunderstorm.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    63  80  60  77 /  50  60  60  30
Hutchinson      62  77  58  76 /  60  60  50  10
Newton          62  78  59  75 /  50  60  60  20
ElDorado        63  79  60  76 /  40  60  60  30
Winfield-KWLD   64  80  61  77 /  30  60  60  40
Russell         60  75  54  75 /  70  60  30  10
Great Bend      61  75  55  75 /  60  60  40  10
Salina          62  77  57  77 /  60  60  50  10
McPherson       62  77  57  76 /  60  60  50  10
Coffeyville     63  81  63  76 /  20  60  70  60
Chanute         62  81  62  77 /  20  60  70  60
Iola            62  80  62  77 /  20  60  70  50
Parsons-KPPF    62  80  62  76 /  20  60  70  60

&&

.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...CDJ



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