Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 020941
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
341 AM CST Fri Dec 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 337 AM CST Fri Dec 2 2016

Today-Saturday:
Little change from previous forecast as temperatures will be at
or above normal again today. Clouds however will be on the
increase. Precipitation is expected to spread across the border
from OK this evening into South Central KS, but precipitation is
not expected for the bulk of the area until after midnight.
Thermal profile suggest some rain/snow mix roughly as far south as
Highway 400, with predominately snow in Central KS. Accumulation
is expected to be less than a quarter inch in Central KS.
Rain/snow line is expected to shift rapidly north Saturday
morning. The clouds and precipitation will likely keep
temperatures in the 40s on Saturday.

Sunday:
Temperatures will make modest recovery back into the 50s on
Sunday with clearing and downslope flow. -Howerton

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 337 AM CST Fri Dec 2 2016

Uncertainty remains high with models still struggling with pattern
change during this period. Give the strong jet and cold air
advection currently feeding into Western US trough, and high
liklihood that a closed low will develop in Mexico, timing of
ejecting wave is problimatic. 0000 UTC runs appear about 12 hours
slow than previous runs, and this still may not be slow enough.
The track of a potentially potentent baroclinic zone continues to
waffle. This could be the first significant winter storm, or not.
Will just have to wait and see. -Howerton

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1150 PM CST Thu Dec 1 2016

There are no concerns as a weak lwr-deck ridge axis extending from
the Cntrl Rockies to the lwr MS Valley moves very little thru Fri
Mrng. A sfc high will then dvlp near the SD/Nebraska state line
Fri Aftn. This would keep NE winds lgt thru Fri Ngt. Areas of -RA
will spread E/NE from Wrn OK Fri Ngt but wl not adversely impact
any of the SC KS terminals.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    52  37  44  35 /   0  30  30  50
Hutchinson      50  34  43  31 /   0  30  30  40
Newton          50  34  43  33 /   0  20  30  40
ElDorado        51  37  44  35 /   0  20  30  50
Winfield-KWLD   53  40  46  36 /   0  40  40  50
Russell         47  28  41  26 /   0  20  30  20
Great Bend      49  30  41  27 /   0  30  30  30
Salina          48  30  43  30 /   0  10  30  40
McPherson       49  33  42  31 /   0  20  30  40
Coffeyville     54  40  48  39 /   0  30  40  50
Chanute         52  37  46  37 /   0  20  30  50
Iola            51  35  45  37 /   0  10  30  50
Parsons-KPPF    53  39  47  38 /   0  20  40  50

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PJH
LONG TERM...PJH
AVIATION...EPS



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