Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 211511
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
911 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 911 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

THINKING A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE AND/OR LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...GENERALLY NORTH OF A LINE
EXTENDING FROM KINGMAN TO HUTCHINSON...TO NEWTON TO EUREKA TO
IOLA...AS LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH IS
CURRENTLY OVERSPREADING TEMPERATURES AT/JUST BELOW FREEZING.
HOWEVER...THINKING IMPACTS WILL BE MINIMAL...AS TEMPERATURES
SHOULD WARM ABOVE FREEZING FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS MORNING.

ADK

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

IN THE UPPER LEVELS A TROUGH IS SITUATED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES AND HEADING INTO THE NORTHEAST. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY
IS TRACKING OVER SOUTHERN CA AND HEADING INTO THE DESERT SW. AT
THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WITH
RICH MOISTURE STREAMING NORTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A WARM
FRONT STRETCHES ACROSS NORTHERN AR INTO CENTRAL OK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

CONFIDENCE IN FREEZING DRIZZLE HAD DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY WITH A
GOOD CHANCE WE MAY NOT BE BELOW FREEZING WHEN PRECIP STARTS THIS
MORNING. IN ADDITION...THE ONSET OF ANY PRECIP LOOKS TO BE AFTER
12Z WHEN WE SHOULD START WARMING UP. STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE
295-300K LAYER IS RESULTING IN LOW CLOUDS RAPIDLY DEVELOPING OVER
OK AND WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS MORNING. LIGHT RAIN AND
DRIZZLE WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE IN BY 15Z AS THE COLUMN CONTINUES TO
SATURATE DOWN. LIGHT RAIN WILL REMAIN FOR AREAS ALONG AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE TURNPIKE TONIGHT AS RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO THE REGION. A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WORKS IN
FROM THE SOUTH.

THE UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS ON SAT. THIS WILL INCREASE MID LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT ALLOWING PRECIP TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS OK ALONG
WITH SE AND PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KS. AS THIS IMPULSE SLIDES
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MISS VALLEY ON SUN...ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY DIVE OUT OF GREAT BASIN AND ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY EARLY SUN EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW RAIN
CHANCES TO LINGER ACROSS MAINLY SE KS ON SUN.

EVEN WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS TODAY...TEMPS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO
WARM INTO THE 40S AND 50S AS THE WARM FRONT SURGES NORTH. NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION TO GET READINGS IN THE 60S ON SAT AS THIS WARM
MOIST AIRMASS CONTINUES TO MODIFY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

UPPER TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS
TO START THE WORK WEEK WITH THE POSITIVE ORIENTATION OF THIS
TROUGH LIMITING MOISTURE ACROSS THE PLAINS. WHILE TEMPS MAYBE A
FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN IS NOT
EXPECTED THROUGH WED. THERE IS SOME SIGNS IN THE MODELS THAT
ANOTHER COLD SURGE MAYBE SETTING UP FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...BUT
THERE IS ENOUGH DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF TO BE
CAUTIOUS...BUT WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 507 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

A WARM FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT
IN WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND
SHOWERS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA.
MAINTAINED LOW CIGS/VISIBILITIES THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z BEFORE
WINDS ARE PROGGED TO VEER TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. THIS MAY BE
SHORT-LIVED ACROSS SOUTHEAST AND MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL KS AS
ANOTHER SURGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO ARRIVE TOWARD
12Z ON SAT. FURTHER WEST...IFR CONDITIONS AT KRSL SHOULD BE
SHORT-LIVED WITH THE BULK OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING EAST OF
THE AREA WHILE LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST WINDS RETURN BY EARLY EVENING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    47  37  61  47 /  30  20  30  30
HUTCHINSON      45  34  60  45 /  20  10  20  20
NEWTON          45  36  60  47 /  30  20  30  30
ELDORADO        48  40  61  48 /  30  20  30  40
WINFIELD-KWLD   52  42  61  49 /  50  30  40  40
RUSSELL         46  30  58  37 /  10  10   0  10
GREAT BEND      46  31  58  41 /  10  10  10  10
SALINA          44  34  59  45 /  20  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       45  34  59  45 /  20  10  20  20
COFFEYVILLE     55  51  61  47 /  50  50  60  60
CHANUTE         50  47  59  48 /  50  40  50  50
IOLA            49  46  59  48 /  50  40  50  50
PARSONS-KPPF    54  49  59  47 /  50  50  60  60

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$



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