Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 260420
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1120 PM CDT Mon Sep 25 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 311 PM CDT Mon Sep 25 2017

Slow moving frontal boundary will continues to make slow progress
across the forecast area this evening through tonight, with showers
and embedded thunderstorms training along the front for most of
central and south central KS. Blocky upper air pattern continues
across the US (with strong upper high over the SE US), with flow
pattern across the plains parallel to the front leading to a
gradual shift to the east of the front for the evening and overnight
hours as the main shortwave along the front range slowly shifts to
the northeast. This will lead to the showers and embedded storms
gradually shifting to the east this evening and overnight, with
occasional showers and storms. Lots of low level moisture transport
along or just ahead of the front, with precipitable water values of
120-140 percent of normal. Instability is around 1000 j/kg so still
could see some embedded thunder strong storms along the leading edge
of the shower/storm shield. So with the slow movement of the
boundary, and training showers along the front, could see some areas
pick up 1 to 3 inches of (much needed) rainfall by Tue evening.

Think the heaviest rainfall amounts will be along or just west of
the KS turnpike, where instability will be the highest. With the
recent dry period, and fairly high flash flood guidance values, not
expecting widespread flooding to be an issue, but could see some
ponding of water in low lying areas and rises along local rivers and
streams.

Moisture transport veers to the southeast by Tue, and the
synoptic front will slowly shift to areas east of the KS turnpike
by Tue night, with some areas of SE KS still seeing lingering
showers through Tue night.

Latest model solutions suggest main synoptic front will push south
into OK for Wed, but lingering mid level baroclinic zone and
moisture transport over the top of the boundary may lead to showers
lingering over southern KS at least through Wed. so will keep a low
pop in for this chance.

As the front pushes south, cooler more seasonal type temps with
highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s look to return to the region.

Ketcham

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 311 PM CDT Mon Sep 25 2017

Ridging looks to shift over the region for Wed night through Fri,
with drier air moving into the northern plains. This will lead to
the seasonal (fall) temps continuing into the weekend as well.

Upper ridging looks to flatten out for the weekend, with chances of
showers and a few storms increasing for Sat/Sun.

Ketcham

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1120 PM CDT Mon Sep 25 2017

Widespread MVFR and areas of IFR will prevail behind a slow
moving cold front across central Kansas tonight with these
conditions gradually developing further east across south central
and parts of southeast Kansas on Tuesday morning. Scattered
showers will also continue across the area with isolated
thunderstorms possible mainly along/east of the Kansas turnpike.
Conditions will gradually improve by Tuesday afternoon.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    60  68  57  70 / 100  70  30  20
Hutchinson      56  66  54  70 /  90  60  20  20
Newton          57  67  55  69 / 100  70  30  20
ElDorado        62  68  56  69 / 100  70  40  30
Winfield-KWLD   63  70  58  70 / 100  70  50  40
Russell         51  65  50  70 /  60  20  10  10
Great Bend      52  64  50  69 /  60  30  20  10
Salina          56  64  53  71 /  80  50  20  10
McPherson       55  65  53  70 /  90  60  20  20
Coffeyville     67  80  61  72 /  40  50  50  40
Chanute         66  77  60  71 /  70  60  50  40
Iola            66  76  58  70 /  60  60  50  30
Parsons-KPPF    67  78  61  71 /  50  50  50  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Ketcham
LONG TERM...Ketcham
AVIATION...KED


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