Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 191729
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1229 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

A CONTINUED PROGRESSIVE PATTERN AT 500 MB WITH ADDITIONAL RIDGE
BUILDING OVER THE ROCKIES IS SEEN ON THE LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS NOTED EAST OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES MOVING
QUICKLY EAST IN THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WAS MOVING TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINNING TO RETURN TO THE REGION.

ON RADAR THIS MORNING...A FEW SPRINKLES WERE NOTED...WHICH WERE
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE LOCATED OVER THE OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE. THIS DISTURBANCE WAS MOVING EAST. THROUGHOUT THE
DAY...THERE SHOULD BE A FEW MORE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
DISTURBANCE ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA FROM
INCREASED INSTABILITY FOR DIURNAL HEATING.

A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. WITH LITTLE MOISTURE IN PLACE...ONLY LOW
CHANCES OF SHOWERS ARE FORECAST.

THE HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL BE CENTERED WELL NORTH.
AS A RESULT...SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN QUICKLY TUESDAY AS THE RIDGE
MOVES QUICKLY EAST.

COOK

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

SOUTHERLY WINDS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BRING MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM ON THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING FOR PRECIPITATION TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. TIMING ON THE FRONT IS RATHER
CONSISTENT...WITH IT ENTERING CENTRAL KANSAS LATE WEDNESDAY AND
MOVING THROUGH THURSDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

COOK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT ACROSS PORTIONS OF SRN KS
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.  AS THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES
ACROSS...WILL SEE A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK INCREASE FOR MOST OF THE
SRN KS TAF SITES INCLUDING KICT/KHUT AND KCNU.  COULD SEE SOME
CONDENSATION IN THE MID LAYERS WHICH MAY PRODUCE SOME VIRGA OR
SPRINKLES...BUT VERY DRY LOW LAYERS WILL KEEP THE PRECIP CHANCES TO
MAINLY SPRINKLES. SO WILL NOT MENTION ANY VCSH IN THE TAFS.

BY MON MORNING...WILL SEE A WEAK COLD FRONT DROP ACROSS CENTRAL KS
WHICH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT THE WINDS AROUND TO THE NW.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    73  53  78  52 /  10  10  10   0
HUTCHINSON      73  51  76  50 /  10  10   0   0
NEWTON          71  52  75  51 /  10  10   0   0
ELDORADO        72  53  77  51 /  10  10   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   73  55  78  54 /  10  20  10  10
RUSSELL         74  48  74  48 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      74  48  74  49 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          73  49  75  48 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       72  50  75  50 /  10  10   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     70  54  76  52 /  10  30  20  10
CHANUTE         70  53  76  49 /  10  10  20   0
IOLA            69  53  75  48 /  10  10  10   0
PARSONS-KPPF    70  53  76  50 /  10  20  20  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$






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