Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 031710
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1210 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 246 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN IMPULSE DIVING SOUTH OVER WESTERN
NEBRASKA/NW KS WITH A MORE ROBUST SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTH OVER
WESTERN ONTARIO. AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL TX
INTO WESTERN IA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 246 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

UPPER IMPULSE WILL CONTINUE TO DIVE SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN KS/OK AND
TEXAS PANHANDLES. THE BULK OF THE LIGHT RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. AT WORST...MAY
HAVE TO INSERT SOME SPRINKLES FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING. THE
SHORTWAVE OVER WESTERN ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE TO DIVE SOUTH AND
WILL CARVE OUT A DEEP TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY FOR WED INTO THU. MEANWHILE...UPPER RIDGING WILL
STRENGTHEN OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN VERY
COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH PLENTY OF SUN AND
WARMING TEMPS. SHOULD SEE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS BY WED WITH MANY
SITES PUSHING 80 BY THU.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BY FRI AFTERNOON...DEEP CLOSED LOW WILL BE
SITUATED OVER THE DESERT SW AND WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE NORTHEAST AND
BY SUN MORNING WILL BE OVER THE ROCKIES WITH SOME ENERGY STARTING TO
MOVE OUT INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. THE ECMWF IS THE MORE AGGRESSIVE
MOVING OUT THE UPPER ENERGY MON COMPARED TO THE GFS. AT THIS TIME
IT STILL LOOKS DRY UNTIL THE SAT NIGHT TIME FRAME WITH SOME
ELEVATED STORMS POSSIBLE. OUR BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS LOOKS
LIKE THE SUN AND MON TIME FRAME...ESPECIALLY FOR THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA WHICH IS WHERE THE DRYLINE WILL BE SITUATED
SUN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

SCATTERED HIGH BASED CU AND ALTOCU WILL AFFECT CENTRAL KANSAS
THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE RATES UNDER A WEAK
UPPER TROF DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS KANSAS. A WEAK SURFACE TROF
WILL ALSO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION...FOLLOWED BY A WEAK
COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST VALID PERIOD.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    73  48  76  46 /  10   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      73  48  76  46 /  10   0   0   0
NEWTON          72  49  74  45 /  10   0   0   0
ELDORADO        72  49  74  46 /  10   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   72  48  75  47 /  10   0   0   0
RUSSELL         71  45  75  46 /  10   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      72  46  75  46 /  10   0   0   0
SALINA          72  47  74  45 /  10   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       72  48  75  45 /  10   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     71  49  75  46 /  10   0   0   0
CHANUTE         71  49  73  45 /  10   0   0   0
IOLA            71  49  73  45 /  10   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    71  49  74  45 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RBL
LONG TERM...RBL
AVIATION...KED



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