Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 011637
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1137 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL REMAIN CONVECTIVE CHANCES...MAINLY
TONIGHT THRU SUNDAY MORNING. A WEAK SHORTWAVE ALOFT WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/MIDWEST LATER TODAY INTO
TONIGHT...WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR CONVECTION RESIDING OVER
NEBRASKA...IOWA AND NORTHERN MISSOURI. HOWEVER A MODEST LOW LEVEL
JET IS STILL PROGGED TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TONIGHT
RESULTING IN WEAK ELEVATED MOISTURE TRANSPORT. THIS MAY BE
SUFFICIENT TO FORCE ISOLATED NOCTURNAL/EARLY MORNING CONVECTION
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA...SO WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT POPS MAINLY
ALONG AND JUST WEST OF THE TURNPIKE. OTHERWISE...SEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...WARMING A BIT
EACH DAY THROUGH MONDAY.

DARMOFAL

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

AN ELONGATED SHORTWAVE TROF MOVING THRU THE WESTERN CONUS
UPPER RIDGE IS STILL PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
PROVIDE MODEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION AS A SURFACE FRONT IS
PUSHED SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. THIS IS REFLECTED WELL IN THE
GOING FORECAST. CONFIDENCE IN THE OUTER PERIODS WITH REGARD
TO POPS REMAINS LOW...DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND
DEPTH/TRACK OF A SECONDARY TROF MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
CONUS LATER IN THE WEEK.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1125 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

VFR WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. TEMPORARY MVFR VSBYS IN BR
EXPECTED AT CNU EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH LIGHT WIND AND LOW
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG A WEST-EAST OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NEAR THE I-70
CORRIDOR WHERE A STRONG INSTABILITY AXIS IS INDICATED WITH LITTLE
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. OTHER ISOLATED STORMS MAY FORM OVERNIGHT
WITHIN A WEAK SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY NOCTURNAL LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS.
PROBABILITIES AND ANY EXPECTED STORM COVERAGE APPEAR TOO LOW TO
MENTION IN ANY TERMINAL SITES AT THIS JUNCTURE.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    93  71  94  71 /  10  20  20  10
HUTCHINSON      93  71  94  70 /  10  20  20  10
NEWTON          92  70  93  70 /  10  20  20  10
ELDORADO        92  70  93  70 /  10  20  20  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   93  71  94  71 /  10  20  20  10
RUSSELL         95  69  96  69 /  10  20  10  10
GREAT BEND      94  69  95  69 /  10  20  10  10
SALINA          95  71  96  71 /  10  20  20  10
MCPHERSON       94  71  95  70 /  10  20  20  10
COFFEYVILLE     92  69  93  69 /  10  10  10  10
CHANUTE         92  68  93  69 /  10  10  10  10
IOLA            92  68  93  68 /  10  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    93  68  94  69 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$


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