Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 170903
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
303 AM CST Sun Dec 17 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 303 AM CST Sun Dec 17 2017

Water vapor imagery shows the upper circulation is currently
situated over south central KS and is continuing to quickly lift
northeast. Rain shield extends from northeast KS down into central
AR.

Rain should continue to quickly lift northeast this morning as the
upper low lifts out. After 12z, only northeast fringes of the
forecast area should continue to see rain with all of the activity
out of the area by 15z. Models continue to agree on another
closed low developing over Sonora Mexico by this evening. This
feature is still expected to slowly track northeast across TX Mon
through Tue and across AR Tue night into Wed morning. While
confidence is high that the bulk of the rainfall will stay
southeast of the forecast area, there is a slight chance of light
rain over se KS late Tue night.

As far as temps go, low clouds are expected to stick around for
most of the day keeping highs near seasonal normals. Meanwhile,
above normal temps can be expected for Mon with most sites in the
upper 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 303 AM CST Sun Dec 17 2017

Have high confidence that above normal temps will continue for Wed
as our next shortwave trough digs over the Great Basin. 00z runs
of the GFS and ECMWF have come in about 6 to 12 hours slower with
the strong cold front on Thu. Both models now don`t take the front
through Wichita until after 18z Thu. Confidence is still high
that it will come through entire forecast area by 06z Fri. Some
light precip still looks possible Thu into Thu evening over
northern KS with no significant snowfall expected. The bigger
story will be the coldest air of the season, with highs Fri-Sun
struggling to get out of the mid 30s. Not out of the question to
get some flurries or light snow Sat night into Sun morning, but
confidence is very low at this point.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1142 PM CST Sat Dec 16 2017

MVFR conditions are likely at all sites late tonight/early on
Sunday with IFR likely KCNU/KHUT and possible at KICT/KGBD.
KRSL/KSLN appear to be on the western/northern fringe of better
moisture return. Precipitation now appears likely at kict/kcnu and
possibly khut. Given lack of low level dry air due to quasi-
stationary front, anticipate clouds will be slow to lift/dissipate
and will keep forecast fairly pessimistic on clearing/improving
flight categories. -Howerton


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    49  31  57  37 /  10   0   0   0
Hutchinson      47  28  57  34 /  10   0   0   0
Newton          48  30  56  36 /  10   0   0   0
ElDorado        49  32  57  38 /  20   0   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   50  32  58  39 /  10  10   0   0
Russell         44  25  56  28 /  10   0   0   0
Great Bend      44  25  57  29 /  10   0   0   0
Salina          47  28  57  32 /  20   0   0   0
McPherson       47  28  56  32 /  10   0   0   0
Coffeyville     52  38  58  43 /  20  10   0  10
Chanute         51  35  57  41 /  30  10   0   0
Iola            51  35  57  41 /  40  10   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    51  37  58  42 /  20  10   0  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RBL
LONG TERM...RBL
AVIATION...PJH


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