Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 291745
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1245 PM CDT FRI JUL 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 304 AM CDT Fri Jul 29 2016

Storms should continue generally along and west of I-135 early
this morning in an area of decent mid level theta-e advection.
Should see an overall decrease in activity near or shortly after
sunrise, as the bulk of it pushes into OK. Not overly excited
about daytime convection with the better focus staying south of
the forecast area which is also where the better instability will
be situated. Should see another MCS tonight with the good 850-700mb
moisture transport over the southwest portions of the forecast
area and down into western OK. Shear isn`t nearly as good as it
was Thu evening but can`t rule out some 50-55 mph winds and small
hail with any of the stronger storms tonight.

A lot of what occurs on Sat will be dependent on boundaries
generated from tonight`s convection. Both GFS and NAM are hinting
at an instability axis thorough western KS and into western
portions of the forecast area. While there isn`t a more synoptic
boundary to focus on, feel storms should develop over the high
Plains Sat afternoon and try and work east into the evening hours.
Another night of mid level theta-e advection will setup for Sat
night with a slight eastward shift to any mcs activity.

Below normal temps can be expected for both today and Sat and with
saturated ground today, feel confident that most sites will not
make it out of the 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 304 AM CDT Fri Jul 29 2016

Upper ridging will start to build east into the southern Plains
Sun into the start of the work week. This will push the better
storm chances east of the forecast area and return the area back
to above normal temps. With 850mb temps getting back into the
25-30 degree range, should see areas along and west of I-135 get
back to near the century mark by Mon with this pattern remaining
through most of the work week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Fri Jul 29 2016

An isolated thunderstorm cannot be ruled out this afternoon,
although the atmosphere is more stabilized particularly in south-
central Kansas compared to yesterday. So mainly a few cumulus
clouds are expected this afternoon, with light/variable winds
across the region.

Moist/unstable low-level upslope flow and northwesterly flow
aloft may generate a few storm clusters over the high plains late
this afternoon/evening. Some of this activity should translate
east-southeastward overnight into saturday morning, aided by
isentropic lift and 850 mb moisture transport. South-Central
Kansas terminals (ICT...HUT...GBD) appear to have relatively
higher chances tonight, compared to areas further north/northeast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    86  69  88  72 /  30  30  30  30
Hutchinson      86  68  88  71 /  30  30  30  30
Newton          85  67  87  71 /  20  30  30  30
ElDorado        85  68  86  71 /  30  30  30  30
Winfield-KWLD   86  70  88  73 /  30  40  30  30
Russell         84  66  88  69 /  20  30  20  30
Great Bend      83  66  88  70 /  20  30  30  30
Salina          87  67  87  71 /  20  30  20  30
McPherson       85  67  87  70 /  20  30  20  30
Coffeyville     87  70  86  72 /  30  30  30  40
Chanute         85  68  85  72 /  30  30  30  40
Iola            85  68  85  71 /  20  20  20  40
Parsons-KPPF    86  69  86  72 /  30  30  30  40

&&

.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RBL
LONG TERM...RBL
AVIATION...JMC



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