Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 300734
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
234 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

CURRENT WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING
NORTHEAST ACROSS NEBRASKA...WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AHEAD
OF THE WAVE MOVING EASTWARD. EXPECTING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS
TO AFFECT CENTRAL KANSAS THIS MORNING AND IT COULD LINGER INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE 310-315K LAYER
PERSISTING THROUGH THE DAY. MEANWHILE...A SECOND UPPER LEVEL WAVE
CURRENTLY OVER OREGON WILL RACE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES TODAY
AND REACH WESTERN KANSAS BY THIS EVENING. THIS NEXT WAVE COULD SPARK
OFF RE-NEWED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE DRYLINE OVER WESTERN
KANSAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON IF ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE CAN
MATERIALIZE. MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS SECOND
WAVE WHICH SHOULD GENERATE MORE ELEVATED SHOWERS/STORMS FOR
CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS TONIGHT. NOT EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER
TONIGHT BUT COULD SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS.

A THIRD UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ROCKIES ON WEDNESDAY
AND DEEPEN THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS...WHICH WILL THEN SWEEP EASTWARD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. ONCE
AGAIN COULD SEE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE
DAY...BUT THE FOCUS WILL SWITCH TO THE AFTERNOON WHERE INSTABILITY
SHOULD BE HIGHER DUE TO RICHER GULF MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE REGION.
THE KEY WILL BE IF WE CAN SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TO HELP
BOOST INSTABILITY EVEN MORE. STORMS SHOULD FIRE WHERE LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED ALONG THE WARM FRONT BOUNDARY OVER
CENTRAL KANSAS...COULD ALSO SEE A FEW STORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE
DRYLINE BUT CONVERGENCE IS NOT AS PRONOUNCED. ONCE STORMS DEVELOP
GIVEN THE EXPECTED ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR/INSTABILITY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE STORMS SHOULD INCREASE IN
COVERAGE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA.
THE ACTIVITY WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS
EASTWARD ACROSS KANSAS. THERE COULD BE A CHANCE FOR MORE
STRONG/SEVERE OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON DEPENDING ON
THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT CLEARING THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL SLIDE EASTWARD TOWARDS THE EAST
COAST WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME SETTING UP OVER CENTRAL PLAINS
THIS PERIOD. THIS WILL BRING DRIER COOLER AIR INTO KANSAS FOR FRIDAY
WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND FOR THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

00 UTC MODELS HAVE GIVEN DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS FROM THEIR 18 UTC
RUNS FOR LOCATION OF FRONT AND EVOLUTION OF STORMS AFTER 12 UTC.
MAIN DIFFERENCE IS LATER RUNS KEEP SURFACE FRONT WELL W OF THE
AREA...SETTING UP QUITE WEAK BUT DEEP LAYER WARM AIR ADVECTION
DURING MOST OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AND INTO THE EVENING. SUSPECT
THIS WOULD LEAD TO MORE ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED PRECIPITATION.
GIVEN UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING...WILL LINGER VCTS THROUGH END OF
PERIOD AT MOST LOCATIONS. -HOWERTON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    83  65  86  64 /  20  50  40  50
HUTCHINSON      82  64  85  61 /  30  50  40  50
NEWTON          82  65  82  62 /  30  60  50  50
ELDORADO        83  65  84  63 /  20  50  50  60
WINFIELD-KWLD   84  66  85  65 /  20  40  50  50
RUSSELL         81  59  79  55 /  30  40  40  50
GREAT BEND      81  60  81  56 /  30  40  40  40
SALINA          82  63  81  60 /  30  50  50  60
MCPHERSON       82  64  82  61 /  30  50  50  50
COFFEYVILLE     84  63  83  67 /  10  20  50  60
CHANUTE         83  63  82  66 /  10  20  50  60
IOLA            83  63  82  66 /  10  20  50  60
PARSONS-KPPF    84  63  83  66 /  10  20  50  60

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







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