573
FXUS64 KJAN 280002
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
702 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

...New AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 309 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Through Sunday:

In the near-term, dry air with analyzed PWATs generally below 1.3
inches this afternoon is the limiting factor for much in the way of
shower or thunderstorm potential. Surface-based CAPE values over
2000 J/kg and decent low-level and mid-level lapse rates would
otherwise support convection. A stray shower or storm cannot be
ruled out this evening, but gusty gradient winds up to 30-35 mph
will be the main concern this evening. Continued moisture advection
and a better-timed shortwave trough passing through the ArkLaTex
region tomorrow afternoon could support a few showers or
thunderstorms during the daytime. Most of the activity should stay
to our west through the daytime however, as the wave interacts with
a dryline feature and generates organized severe weather threat for
East Texas into western Louisiana. Gusty southerly winds will
continue across the area, so will keep the Limited wind graphic in
effect through the day tomorrow.

Sunday night through Saturday:

The severe thunderstorm activity to our west on Sunday will have the
chance to make a run into at least northeast Louisiana and southeast
Arkansas tomorrow night. Hi-res guidance runs show a mature squall
line developing from the afternoon activity, and potentially bowing
out as it reaches the western portions of our forecast area late
Sunday evening into early Monday morning. A Slight Risk area for
potential damaging wind gusts and a possible tornado have therefore
been added for the Sunday night time frame. This line should
continue eastward into the day, possibly stalling out or losing
momentum before it fully clears our forecast area. A Marginal risk
for severe thunderstorms will continue into the day Monday, and the
potential for heavy rain with this system will also necessitate a
Limited Flash Flooding risk as well. Hazardous Weather Outlook
graphics have been updated and issued accordingly.

A fairly progressive split flow regime sets up over the CONUS
through the rest of next week, driving a few potential periods of
showers and thunderstorms as shortwave troughs moving east and
interact with spring-like humid and unstable air masses across the
South. When not raining, afternoon high temperatures should push
the upper 80s/lower 90s range. /NF/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 702 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Gusty southeasterly sfc winds will continue through early
evening, mainly winding down by 28/02-04Z. In the wake, increased
flow in the low-levels will support onset of low-level wind shear
(LLWS) around 30-40kts at most TAF sites, mainly after 28/04-09Z.
This will remain psbl through around daybreak. MVFR stratus
should develop at central & southern TAF sites (i.e. HKS, JAN,
PIB, HBG & HEZ), with onset between 28/09-13Z & earlier onset at
southern TAF sites. Daytime mixing will lead to VFR flight cats
by midday & gusty southeasterly sfc winds, up to 20mph sustained
& gusts up to 30mph, psbl through the end of the TAF period. /DC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       65  83  67  78 /   0  20  10  80
Meridian      64  84  63  82 /   0  20  10  60
Vicksburg     65  86  68  76 /   0  20  20  90
Hattiesburg   64  83  67  81 /   0  20  10  60
Natchez       67  85  68  77 /   0  20  20  90
Greenville    65  84  67  74 /   0  20  40 100
Greenwood     65  84  67  75 /   0  20  20  90

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

NF/DC