449
FXUS62 KJAX 011849
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
249 PM EDT Wed May 1 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 244 PM EDT Wed May 1 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

As the Atlantic and Gulf coast sea-breeze begin to pick up, so
will the chances for rain and isolated storms today and into the
evening. PWAT values continue to increase from 1.3" to 1.5"
bringing ample moisture to the area. Showers will begin to pop up
along the Sea-breeze boundaries as they make their way inland,
increasing in chances as daytime heating and sea-breezes converge
inland. Severe weather is highly unlikely, with no upper level
support and dry air aloft. Temperatures will reach into the upper
80s inland, staying in the low to mid 80s along the coast.
Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 60s with chances of
patchy to widespread fog possible in the early morning hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday through Friday night)
Issued at 244 PM EDT Wed May 1 2024

A transition to a slightly stronger east coast sea breeze regime
with the best chance of scattered late afternoon showers and maybe
a thunderstorm focused toward the I-75 corridor & inland SE GA
westward where sea breezes and boundaries merge. Thursday,
convection will be more limited than today given a building ridge
aloft and even drier PWAT near to just below climo values around
1.1 to 1.2 inches, but enough low level instability will be in
place to fuel some updrafts near boundary mergers. By Friday, even
drier air with PWAT < 1 inch will focus east of Highway 301 while
deeper moisture ahead of an approaching short wave trough will
move across our western zones during the afternoon and into the
evening which could trigger some late day and overnight convection
across SE GA. Winds will gust between 20-25 mph at the coast
trailing the east coast sea breeze each afternoon into the early
evening. Temperatures will trend near to above normal with highs
nearing 90 inland to mid 80s coast under the onshore flow. Low
temperatures will range in the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 244 PM EDT Wed May 1 2024

Sat & Sun...Elevated rain chances this weekend as a slow moving
short wave trough crosses the area and interacts with diurnal
instability and mesoscale boundaries. The higher shower and
t`storm chances will focus across inland SE GA both days, with
more scattered convection across NE FL. The main weather concerns
this weekend will be localized heavy rainfall given weak storm
motion < 10 kts and above normal PWAT over 1.5 inches. Shear and
lapse rate profiles do not favor severe thunderstorm potential.
Above normal temperatures in the mid/upper 80s will be tempered by
clouds and convection with mild lows in the 60s.

Mon through Wed...A warming to HOT trend ensues next week as
`stacked` high pressure from the surface to aloft builds across
the region, which will limit deep convective growth and thus rain
chances despite elevated PWATs. Monday, another passing short wave
could trigger some showers mainly across SE GA while low level
ridging begins to build across the FL peninsula. Upper ridging
amplifies across the eastern Gulf Tue & Wed while the low level
ridge axis holds across the FL peninsula. Although a rogue sea
breeze shower is not completely unlikely, rain chances will be
limited with the main weather story being the near record highs in
the low to mid 90s for inland areas by Wed.


&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 123 PM EDT Wed May 1 2024

Diurnal heating and the Atlantic and Gulf coast sea-breezes
push inland and could produce some isolated to widely scattered
showers after 18-20Z at all TAF sites. Best chances for
thunderstorms will be at the inland TAF sites where the sea
breezes converge. Fog may develop after 07Z for the inland TAF
sites.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 338 AM EDT Wed May 1 2024

Winds will be picking up as surges of onshore winds of 8 to 10
knots from the Atlantic sea breeze shift inland. Slight chance
(10%)for isolated showers and storms over the local waters today
as the Atlantic sea-breeze pushes its way inland. High pressure
ridging dominates the the coastal waters for most of the period
with slight chances for showers over the weekend in the afternoon.

Rip Currents: High risk of rip currents continue for NE FL
beaches today with a moderate risk on Thursday as seas subside.
Moderate risk of rip currents continue for SE GA beaches through
Thursday.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  64  90  65  89 /  10  10   0  10
SSI  67  81  67  81 /   0   0   0  10
JAX  66  86  65  86 /  10  10   0  10
SGJ  67  84  67  84 /  10  10   0  10
GNV  64  89  64  89 /  30  30   0  10
OCF  65  90  65  90 /  20  20   0  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ124-125-133-
     138.

GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$