Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
298 FXUS62 KKEY 100830 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 430 AM EDT Fri May 10 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 430 AM EDT Fri May 10 2024 Mostly clear, warm and dry conditions prevail along the Florida Keys on this early Friday morning, with radars detecting no precipitation across the region. Temperatures are hovering in the upper 70s to near 80, with dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s, and winds on land from the southeast to south at 10 to 15 mph. Surface analysis shows high pressure retreating further offshore over the western Atlantic during the past 24 hours. Aloft, the lower to mid level ridge which has dominated the Gulf of Mexico and Florida for the past several days is starting to flatten as a shortwave trough dives from the Mid Mississippi Valley toward the Southeastern states. The 00Z Key West sounding remained dry and stable, with a low inversion based near 1000 feet, very dry air throughout the lower to mid levels, and PW of only 1.11 inches (below the 25th percentile for this date). Recent MIMIC-TPW satellite imagery shows a similarly dry airmass around the Keys and Straits of Florida, extending eastward across the Bahamas into the western Atlantic. Mostly clear, warm and dry weather will prevail across the Keys today and through the weekend. Although the shortwave moving through the SE states will push a weak surface front down the Florida peninsula tonight and Saturday, this front will be starved for moisture as it reaches our area, with dry air persisting in the lower to mid levels as the ridge remains in place just to our south. Have maintained a dry forecast through Sunday night, in good agreement with MOS and NBM consensus. The front is expected to stall over extreme South Florida on Sunday, then lift back north as a warm front early next week. Here in the Keys, the only real impact will be a period of gentle NW/N breezes Saturday night into Sunday, and a brief interlude of lower dewpoints, possibly briefly dropping into the 60s, on Sunday. Temps will change little through the weekend, with highs in the upper 80s and lows mostly in the upper 70s. The forecast remains somewhat more uncertain heading through next week, as guidance continues to vary in the strength and timing of the next trough forecast to push eastward from the Southern Plains. At this time, it continues to appear that much of the associated convective activity will probably remain north of our area, with the mid level ridge holding firm just to our south. Guidance has remained on the dry side, and have maintained 20 percent PoPs along with a mention of thunder from Monday night onward. Temps will change little, with highs in the upper 80s and lows in the lower 80s. Dewpoints will be heading upward through the week, climbing into the mid/upper 70s by midweek, with afternoon heat indices peaking around 100F. Summer is right around the corner. && .MARINE... Issued at 430 AM EDT Fri May 10 2024 Late night observations show SE/S winds increasing to near 15 knots along the reef and at Long Key C-MAN, with seas at Satan Shoal building to near 2.5 feet. No marine headlines are currently in effect for the Keys coastal waters. From the synopsis, moderate southeast to south breezes this morning will slacken and veer to the south and southwest this afternoon, as high pressure over the western Atlantic moves further offshore. Winds will continue to veer around the compass during the weekend as a weak frontal boundary moves down the Florida peninsula. The front will dissipate near the Keys waters on Sunday, then gentle to moderate southeast breezes will resume early next week as another high pressure area moves over the western Atlantic. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 430 AM EDT Fri May 10 2024 VFR conditions will prevail at the EYW and MTH terminals through the TAF period. Near surface winds will be southeast to south near 10 knots this morning, turning to the southwest to west and decreasing to near 5 knots this afternoon. && .CLIMATE... On this day in 1961, 1/2 inch hail fell in downtown Key West. && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...Jacobson Aviation/Nowcasts....AP Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest