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000
FXUS63 KLBF 160527
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1227 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

-  Critical fire weather conditions continue into the evening
   across the eastern Panhandle and far southwest Nebraska,
   with relative humidity values as low as 8 percent and south
   winds gusting as high as 45 miles per hour.

-  The potential for severe weather this evening into tonight
   across much of western and north central Nebraska. Large to
   very large hail, damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes are
   all possible.

-  Strong northwest winds develop Tuesday and Tuesday evening
   behind a cold front, with wind gusts as high as 60 miles per
   hour across the southern Panhandle and far southwest
   Nebraska.

-  A quick moving system impacts the area Wednesday evening into
   Thursday morning, bringing a threat for mainly rain showers.

-  Below average temperatures then persist late this week and
   into the weekend, with continued precipitation chances.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 342 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

This evening and overnight, an upper low will emerge onto the Front
Range of Colorado, with an associated surface low lifting from
northeast Colorado into the panhandle and far southwest Nebraska
early evening. As this occurs, a northwest to southeast oriented
dryline will be in place across the southeast panhandle and far
southwest Nebraska, while a warm front extends near Highways 2
and 91. The 12Z CAMS and deterministic models differ on the
location of initiation. Critical fire weather conditions
continue this evening behind the dryline.

Southeasterly flow will cross the warm front bringing moderate
moisture advection into much of the Sandhills and north central
Nebraska, with dewpoints in the 50s. SBCAPES will easily range from
2000-25000 J/KG. Deep layer wind profiles look ample to support
organized updrafts, with deep meridional flow aloft leading to
elongated hodographs with height. Low-level flow remains backed and
will lead to good curvature in the lowest few kilometers of the
hodograph as the low-level jet strengthens near/after sunset). The
environment looks to be supportive for initial discrete supercell
development early evening, with storms trending to cluster over
north central Nebraska during the evening. An enhanced risk for
severe storms mainly east of a Merriman through Callaway line. Large
to very large hail, damaging winds and isolated tornadoes are
possible.

After dark, more widespread convective development is expected north
and east of a surface low oriented across south central into north
central Nebraska later tonight. Interacting updrafts may limit the
hail threat some after midnight, along with any damaging wind threat
as the boundary layer cools and storms may become elevated across
north central Nebraska.

On Tuesday, the upper low is forecast to move from south central
Nebraska into northeast Nebraska by late afternoon. This will bring
likely to categorical POPs through the day for showers and
thunderstorms. Wraparound rainfall behind the low will bring the
higher rainfall amounts from a half inch to over an inch to areas
mainly along a corridor from Valentine through Broken Bow.
Rainfall amounts look considerably less across southwest
Nebraska.

As the deep surface low begins to slowly push off to the east
late Tuesday morning, flow will quickly strengthen from the
northwest behind the surface cold front. Strong flow aloft will mix
to the surface from increasing cold advection. Winds gusting in
excess of 55 miles per hour Tuesday late morning through the
afternoon are possible mainly near and west of Highway 83, and areas
to the east late Tuesday afternoon and evening. The current High
Winds watch for southwestern counties remains in effect, where gusts
to 60 mph area possible.

The system finally exits the area Tuesday night, with precip ending
from west to east.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 342 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Wednesday looks dry until later afternoon across the west, as
another trough moves into the Northern Plains. This looks to
bring likely chances for rain showers behind a cold front pushing
through the area Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Some snow
could mix into the rain across the northwest Sandhills, as the
column cools aloft. The upper flow remain fairly zonal Thursday
through Saturday, becoming northwesterly Sunday into Monday. lows
chances for showers, and possibly some snow showers Friday night
into Saturday morning across the northwest Sandhills. Highs to
only reach the mid 40s to low 50s Thursday/Friday, 40s Saturday,
warming to the 50s Sunday and the 60s Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1227 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

A powerful storm system crossing the state will result in a few
aviation weather concerns for western and north central Nebraska
terminals. Scattered thunderstorms overnight will be capable of
strong erratic wind gusts and hail, along with heavy rain for
brief visby reductions. Low level wind shear conditions are also
present over southwest Nebraska (LBF). Toward morning, near
surface winds transition to northwesterly and strengthen
steadily. Gusts will approach 40 kts during the mid to late
afternoon. Meanwhile, ceilings will drop into MVFR and locally
IFR category as rain showers overspread the region.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Watch from 9 AM MDT Tuesday through Tuesday evening
for NEZ022-023-035-056>058-069.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Roberg
LONG TERM...Roberg
AVIATION...Snively