271
FXUS64 KLUB 070728
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
228 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 228 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024

A stacked cyclone will loiter over the western Dakotas today while
our area sits under cyclonic westerly flow. At the surface, a
Pacific front was clearing the southern Rolling Plains at 2 AM ahead
of lower thicknesses; however, this modest cooling will be erased by
this afternoon as pressure falls sharpen from southeast CO through
eastern NM and restore very breezy SW winds. Deep mixing once again
along with a compressional warming component should have little
trouble pushing highs into the upper 80s to near 90. NBM struggled
with highs yesterday and appears to be suffering the same bias
today, so opted for its warmer 75th percentile which is closer to
MOS. Cyclogenesis in southeast CO meanwhile will depart for northern
OK by daybreak and in the process drag a weak cold front into our
northern zones after midnight.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 228 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024

Upper-level troughing will remain elongated across the northern U.S.
on Wednesday which will keep zonal flow over our forecast area. The
upper-level pattern won`t change much until the weekend, when an
upper-level low will approach the forecast area. This will keep our
forecast area pretty tranquil through the week with dry conditions
expected. High temperatures on Wednesday will remain above normal
with temperatures in the 80s. However, a cold front will drop south
through the area on Thursday bringing a return of cooler temperatures
to our forecast area. Thursday through the weekend easterly upslope
surface flow will persist keeping high temperatures mostly in the
70s. As stated above this weekend will get a little more interesting
as an upper-level low approaches the forecast area. Ensemble
guidance shows a spread on when exactly this will move over the
forecast area (anywhere from Saturday to Monday) but at this time
it looks like Sunday will have the highest potential for
precipitation around 30%. /WI

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1238 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024

Continued VFR with light W winds backing SW and becoming gusty by
midday at all terminals.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM....58
AVIATION...93