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000
FNUS71 KLWX 241152
FWSLWX

Spot Forecast for Chimney Rock Rx...NPS
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
752 AM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 EDT on April 24.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...

A cold front crosses the area this morning, bringing scattered
showers. The threat for a shower or two may linger into the
afternoon, but much of the day will remain dry. Winds quickly turn
northwest behind the front this afternoon, with gusts of 20-25mph
across most of the area. This is going to result in excellent smoke
dispersion today. Min RH values around 40-45pct.

RH values rebound to near 70 percent tonight, and winds remain out of
the northwest, before becoming northerly later in the night. Winds
turn northeasterly tomorrow morning, and then easterly tomorrow
afternoon. Dry conditions are expected, with min RH values around
35-40 percent.



.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (50-60 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers.
CWR.................20 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 64.
Min humidity........43 percent.
Eye level winds.....Northwest winds 9 to 10 mph.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 15 to 16 mph.
Transport winds.....West 9 to 18 mph shifting to the northwest 22
                    to 23 mph late in the morning.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (2300 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to excellent (63300 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon increasing to excellent (108600
                    knot-ft) late in the morning.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........72  62  51  41  40  40  39  40  41  42
Weather cov.....SCH         ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO
Weather type....RW          RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........
CWR.............20  10  10  20  20  20  20  20  20  20
Temp............56  55  57  58  61  62  63  63  63  64
RH..............64  69  64  62  53  52  48  48  48  43
20 FT wind dir..W   W   W   NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
20 FT wind spd..15  15  16  16  16  15  15  15  15  15
20 FT wind gust.23  24  25  25  25  24  24  24  24  23
Eye lvl wnd dir.W   W   W   NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
Eye lvl wnd spd.9   9   10  10  10  9   9   9   9   9
Eye lvl wnd gst.14  14  15  15  15  14  14  14  14  14
Transp wind dir.W   W   W   W   W   W   W   NW  NW  NW
Transp wind spd.9   14  18  22  23  23  23  23  23  22
Haines index....3   3   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4
Vrate kt-ft/1K..2   23  63  109 131 138 139 144 142 121
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  GD  VGD VGD VGD VGD VGD VGD VGD

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (35-45 percent).
CWR.................10 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 37.
Max humidity........68 percent.
Eye level winds.....North winds 7 to 8 mph decreasing to 5 to 7 mph
                    overnight.
Wind (20 ft)........North winds 9 to 14 mph.
Transport winds.....North 13 to 18 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (70300 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (2400 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........41     40     33     30     30     43
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
CWR.............10     10     10     10     10     10
Temp............63     59     52     47     43     39
RH..............44     51     63     68     65     62
20 ft wind......NW 14  NW 13  N 12   N 12   N 12   N 10
20 ft wind gust.21     17     17     18     18     16
Eye level wind..NW 8   NW 8   N 7    N 7    N 7    N 6
Eye lvl wnd gst.13     10     10     11     11     10
Transport wind..NW 18  NW 13  N 14   N 16   N 18   N 18
Haines index....4      4      3      3      3      3
Vrate kt-ft/1K..70     4      10     28     39     34
Ventrate Cat....GOOD   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (25-35 percent).
CWR.................10 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 56.
Min humidity........38 percent.
Eye level winds.....Northeast winds up to 5 mph.
Wind (20 ft)........Northeast winds 6 to 9 mph.
Transport winds.....North 8 to 17 mph shifting to the northeast 5
                    to 7 mph in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (18900 knot-ft).
Haines Index........3 to 6 or very low to high potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........43     32     28     25     23     20
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
CWR.............10     0      0      0      0      0
Temp............38     39     43     49     53     55
RH..............57     50     49     40     39     38
20 ft wind......NE 9   NE 9   NE 8   NE 7   E 6    E 6
20 ft wind gust.15     14     10     9      9      8
Eye level wind..NE 5   NE 5   NE 5   NE 4   E 4    E 4
Eye lvl wnd gst.9      8      6      5      5      5
Transport wind..N 17   N 16   N 10   N 7    N 6    NE 5
Haines index....3      3      3      4      5      6
Vrate kt-ft/1K..28     30     25     22     22     20
Ventrate Cat....POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR

$$
Forecaster...Pallozzi
Requested by...J.Seabright
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2411875.1/LWX
.DELDT 04/24/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL Jeffrey_Seabright@nps.gov