Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 212328
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
628 PM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Friday night)
Issued at 207 PM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024

As this morning`s round of showers across the Permian Basin moved to
the east of the area, the next round has gotten underway, with most
activity focused across the far northern Permian Basin, Southeast
New Mexico Plains, and Stockton Plateau. Cumulus has deepened and
become somewhat more congested across the northeastern Permian Basin
early this afternoon, owing to better moisture with surface
dewpoints approaching 50F as well as diurnal destabilization. While
the core of the low remains over eastern New Mexico per latest water
vapor imagery, its axis extending southward near the Texas/New
Mexico state line, ascent along and ahead of this feature will be
the focus for additional storm development this afternoon into early
this evening. To the west of this feature, a few showers have
developed across the Eddy County Plains due to ascent associated
with the low, despite being to the west of the dryline. CAMs remain
in good agreement regarding the evolution of convective trends this
afternoon, with the greatest potential for thunderstorm development
across the northern and northeastern Permian Basin in closer
proximity to the short wave as it passes to the north, with showers
possible further south. Instability and shear are progged to remain
fairly modest (<1000 J/kg and ~35kt, respectively), though steep
lapse rates will lend to a hail threat with storms that develop.
That said, severe weather is not anticipated, though the stronger
storms will be capable of producing small hail, gusty winds, and
brief heavy rainfall. Convection gradually moves to the east this
evening with the passing of the short wave, with most activity
moving out of the area by early to mid evening.

As convection winds down this evening, a quiet night will be ahead
as winds decrease and shift to the northwest. Low temperatures
ranging from the lower 40s to lower 50s will be pretty close to
normal for mid-March. Heading into Friday, dry northwesterly flow
aloft and subsidence in the wake of the departing short wave will
allow for plenty of sunshine, and despite the post-frontal air mass,
downsloping west-northwesterly winds will allow temperatures to bump
above normal, topping out in the middle 70s and lower 80s for most.
Another quiescent night then follows, with lows again in the 40s and
50s, making for a good start to the weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 207 PM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024

Sunday will be the main focus in this forecast discussion as a
positively-tilted short wave trough translates across the southern
High Plains. A dryline will sharpen up somewhere east of a Lamesa
to Midland to Fort Stockton to Boquillas line; however, return
moisture from the Gulf is somewhat lacking. There will be plenty
of shear and upper dynamical forcing present; so, too, will be an
EML. The NBM has backed off a bit on convective chances across the
far eastern CWA, and this seems reasonable given probabilities of
dewpoints greater than 55 degrees F less than 30 percent east of
the aforementioned line. Still, there should be enough to gin up
isolated (~ 15 percent) convection east of a Gail to Big Spring to
Big Lake line late Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening.

West of the dryline, we must again contend with fire weather
concerns. Fine fuels are generally absent and ERCs are trending up
but are not exceptional. However, as we`ve seen with previous
events, with a low level thermal ridge in place roughly along the
Texas/New Mexico border and 20 foot winds in the 25-30 mph range,
it would not take much for IA potential to escalate quickly, with
the primary area west of a Lamesa to Kermit to Big Bend National
Park line Sunday afternoon being of utmost concern. Outdoor
burning or any activities that may ignite fine fuels is strongly
discouraged Sunday afternoon.

Not to add insult to injury, but the winds will be quite elevated
west of the dryline Sunday and again on Monday areawide, with
warning criteria likely (greater than 70 percent chance) being
met across the Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains and a good
(greater than 60 percent) chance of advisory criteria being hit
across the adjacent plains. A High Wind Watch may be issued as
early as tomorrow for the Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains and a
Wind Advisory as early as Saturday for the upper Trans Pecos north
across southeastern New Mexico for Sunday afternoon and possibly
extending into Monday afternoon.

Sunday night, a Pacific front will sweep across southeastern New
Mexico and west Texas, bringing with it slightly cooler
temperatures and a wind shift to the northwest. However, with
little in the way of real cold air behind this front, temperatures
will fall to only a little below normal for late March.
Temperatures will moderate some as we get into the middle of the
next work week with windy conditions possible again Wednesday.
`tis the season. -bc

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 621 PM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024

Lingering showers continue to move slowly eastward across
Southeast New Mexico and the Permian Basin, thus have maintained
VCSH mention for HOB/MAF early in the period. Fortunately, no
lightning strikes have been observed recently, with activity on a
downward/weakening trend. Winds are somewhat variable and gusty at
issuance due to outflow boundaries, but will gradually weaken and
settle out of the southwest overnight. Late tonight through Friday
morning, winds shift to the north-northwest, becoming elevated and
intermittently gusty between 15Z-18Z onward. VFR conditions will
prevail.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               44  78  47  75 /  10   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 49  80  48  80 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   53  85  53  79 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            53  81  54  80 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           47  72  49  73 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    44  78  45  75 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    41  74  41  76 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     45  78  48  75 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   47  78  49  75 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     48  82  51  80 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...84
LONG TERM....70
AVIATION...84


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