Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
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141 FXUS64 KMEG 021712 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1212 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 1200 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024 Quick update to bump up PoPs across the western portions of the Mid-South and to also remove the Marginal Risk of severe storms from the forecast and Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook (gHWO). Convective coverage will increase substantially by mid to late afternoon as a shortwave impinges upon the Mid-South region from the west. A couple of strong storms are still possible, mainly over southeast Arkansas and northwest Mississippi in the short term, where up to 2000 J/kg of SBCAPE is already available. With less than 20 knots of available shear, small hail and gusty winds are the main threats with any storms that shoot up and come back down. The rest of the forecast is in good shape with temperatures climbing into the mid to upper 80s and increasing PoPs this afternoon. AC3 && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 214 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024 A warm and unsettled pattern will begin to take shape today. As a slow moving cold front approaches and eventually stalls out, scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible starting this afternoon through the weekend. The unsettled pattern will continue into mid next week as a series of fronts and shortwave troughs move through the region. && .DISCUSSION... (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 214 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024 Current GOES satellite depicts a cirrus shield overspreading the area associated with fallout from ongoing convection over the Central and Southern Plains. As a cold front slowly approaches from the west later this morning, showers and thunderstorms will pick up in coverage and intensity along the decaying MCS from the Plains. By mid to late afternoon, a few thunderstorms may still be able to hang onto enough instability to produce a few damaging wind gusts or perhaps some hail. Kinematics look fairly bleak (~30 kts bulk shear via the HREF), so updrafts are not expected to have much of an organized structure. If any storms do become strong to severe this afternoon, it would likely be west of the Mississippi River. Despite all this cloud cover and convection today, we still have the potential to have our first 90 degree day of the year. NBM 90th percentile suggests that the warmest reasonable high temperatures this afternoon are in the low 90s for much of the area. The aforementioned cold front is expected to stall out just to our northwest by Friday morning. Forecast surface analyses show a shortwave trough kicking out ahead of the front, keeping the potential for widespread showers and thunderstorms on the table through Friday and Saturday afternoons. Dynamics look far less impressive through the remainder of the weekend, but expect at least a 50% chance of rain through Sunday evening associated with mesoscale and/or diurnal processes. A warm front finally lifts north on Monday morning, nudging temperatures back into the mid to upper 80s for the next several days. In addition, southerly flow returns Monday and will allow warm, moist Gulf Coast air to contribute to further thunderstorm potential each day next week. The pattern looks generally unsettled well into midweek; expect 2-3 inches of rain total over the next 7 days. CAD && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 603 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024 VFR conditions expected to prevail at TAF sites today, then gradually deteriorating into tonight as a surface low moves northeast through the Lower Mississippi Valley. SHRA/VCTS possible at JBR/MEM by late afternoon then gradually spreading into remaining sites this evening. Confidence in better TS chances remains too low for inclusion of any TEMPOS in this TAF set. High-Res Ensemble guidance suggests best chances for MVFR/IFR conditions will be mainly later this evening into early Friday. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...CAD AVIATION...CJC