602
FXUS64 KMOB 061809
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
109 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

...New AVIATION, NEAR TERM...

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 109 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through much of this afternoon with
isolated showers and thunderstorms across mainly inland areas
where brief reductions in ceilings and visbys can be expected. Low
clouds return tonight with some patchy fog. /13

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Now through Tuesday)
Issued at 109 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

An upper-level shortwave impulse, currently located over the
Lower Mississippi River Valley, will continue to lift
northeastward throughout the day today. In its wake, an upper
ridge axis begins moving overhead tonight and shifts to our east
on Tuesday. Overall, though, a general zonal flow pattern will
prevail through the period. At the surface, a persistent high
pressure system over the western Atlantic maintains southerly flow
across our area, keeping us in a summer-like pattern. For today,
a few isolated warm air advection showers will be possible this
morning. Very similar to the past few days, diurnal heating, in
combination with weak forcing from the shortwave aloft and ample
moisture in place, should allow for isolated to widely scattered
showers and storms to develop during the afternoon, primarily over
the northern half of our CWA. Rain chances quickly decrease by
the evening and overnight hours due to the loss of daytime heating
and the ridge axis moving overhead. Tomorrow`s coverage is a
little less certain as the ridge axis lingers overhead. Plenty of
instability and moisture continues to reside over the area, but
with a lack of any large scale lift, expecting only spotty
showers/storms at best, with the highest chances (~30 percent)
over our northwestern counties (as this region is further from the
ridge axis).

Temperatures will remain quite warm through the period, with highs
ranging from the low 80s along the coast to the mid to upper 80s
inland. Lows tonight will only drop into the upper 60s to low 70s. A
Moderate risk of rip currents remains in place through tonight,
becoming a High risk tomorrow. /96



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      71  88  72  89  74  89  68  84 /   0  10   0   0   0  40  50  40
Pensacola   73  85  74  86  76  86  71  82 /  10  10   0  10   0  40  40  50
Destin      73  83  74  85  76  84  72  82 /   0  10   0   0   0  20  40  50
Evergreen   68  89  69  92  72  88  65  82 /   0  20   0  10  10  50  60  50
Waynesboro  69  89  70  92  72  89  64  81 /  10  30   0  10  20  50  60  30
Camden      68  89  70  93  72  87  64  79 /  10  30  10  10  20  60  60  40
Crestview   67  89  68  90  71  89  66  84 /   0  10   0  10   0  40  50  60

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk from Tuesday morning through Friday
     afternoon for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk from Tuesday morning through Friday
     afternoon for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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