Flash Flood Guidance
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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691 AWUS01 KWNH 282319 FFGMPD MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-290518- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0197 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 719 PM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Areas affected...northeastern Oklahoma into southwestern Missouri Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 282318Z - 290518Z Summary...Scattered thunderstorms continue to deepen near/east of Tulsa currently. These storms are producing estimated 1 inch/hr rain rates that should spread northeastward into southwestern Missouri over the next 2-4 hours. Flash flooding could occur in a few locations as a result. Discussion...Forcing for ascent associated with a shortwave trough over eastern Oklahoma and low-level confluence was aiding in continued development of thunderstorms primarily across northeastern Oklahoma over the past couple hours. These storms are loosely organized/cellular, but aligned favorably parallel with southwesterly flow aloft to produce spots of estimated 1-1.25 inch/hr rain rates per MRMS - especially east of Tulsa (northwest of Tahlequah). These cells were in a marginally buoyant environment (500-1000 J/kg SBCAPE) and moving northeastward into a recovering airmass with gradual destabiliation (primarily owing to cooling aloft). On its current track, these storms should enter southwestern Missouri beginning in the next hour, with spots of 1 inch/hr rain rates posing a risk of flash flooding especially in low-lying areas. FFG thresholds are in the 1 inch/hr range areawide, but are lower northwest of an axis from Crawford County, KS to Morgan County, MO where very heavy rainfall fell yesterday. Soils along and northwest of this axis are likely to still be water logged and susceptible to quick runoff in the event convective cells can make it into this region. This risk is a a bit conditional, however, as trajectories seem to favor northeastward movement into Missouri just south of this axis. Flash flooding is possible where convective training is most pronounced. Cook ...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EAX...ICT...LSX...LZK...OUN...SGF...TSA... ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...MBRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 38929271 38689191 37749188 36739261 35339488 35009644 36079637 37209534 38379435