Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
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064 FXUS63 KMPX 110511 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 1211 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and thunderstorms possible across western Wisconsin late this afternoon. A few storms could strong wind gusts. - Strong geomagnetic storm tonight combined with mostly clear skies making strong chances to observe Auroras. - Sunny and warm spring weather this weekend with highs in the 70s on Saturday and 80s on Sunday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 821 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Cloud cover and showers that came down from northern MN with the main h5 shortwave are rapidly dissipating as we loose heating with the setting sun. We should have excellent viewing conditions for the ongoing solar storm, which the Space Weather Prediction Center classified as a G5 geomagnetic storm. The highest level of geomagnetic storm and the first since Halloween of 2003. Some of the solar wind numbers have settled down some from what we saw around 6pm/7pm local time, but we still look to be in line for seeing some northern lights, though perhaps not quite as spectacular as what northwest Europe experienced. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 236 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024 A clipper system continues to make its way southward over Minnesota and Wisconsin this afternoon. Surface observations showing blustery 35-40 mph wind gusts across western Minnesota. With windy conditions, and warm temperatures, RH values near 25 percent this afternoon will make for elevated fire conditions. Winds will decrease tonight once the trough vacates southeastward. THE REST OF TODAY...Current visible satellite showing a defined band of cumulus stretched from the U.P. of Michigan down to northern Iowa which is a frontal boundary associated with the upper-level trough. Some showers are possible with this cloud band but dry air likely evaporating most water droplets before reaching the surface. Just off to the west across the St. Croix River Valley, another pocket of cu has developed to which will likely be the culprits of any convection this afternoon, mainly for our western Wisconsin counties. The storm environment for the rest of today only looking marginal at best. Forecast soundings showing a dry surface layer at least 1km deep with only a few hundred joules/kg of instability. The primary hazards for any storm that becomes organized may have strong wind gusts and potentially small hail less than 1 inch in diameter. The bulk of showers and thunderstorms should clear western Wisconsin by 7 PM tonight. As this occurs, clearing will begin from west to east overnight just in time to likely see the Auroras in non-light polluted areas. Lows tonight forecasted to reach low to mid 40s. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...Today`s clipper system will reach the Great Lakes by Saturday, and a weak ridge of surface high pressure will settle across the Upper Midwest. Winds will become westerly with mostly clear skies, and afternoon highs will warm into the 70s across the area. On Sunday another clipper system will track across Canada, and southwest winds ahead of a weak cold front will bring warmer temperatures across the region. Highs on Sunday will reach the 80s at many locations. This cold front will pass through dry, but there is a small chance (10 to 20%) for a light rain shower for areas near Lake Mille Lacs MN to Chippewa Falls WI. MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...No significant changes from the previous forecast. The aforementioned weak cold front will pass through to the south and be the focus for showers and thunderstorms across Iowa and the I-80 corridor. On Tuesday a shortwave trough will approach from the west, and this will bring the next widespread chance for showers and thunderstorms. The current forecast calls for about a 50/50 chance for rain, mainly due to uncertainties with timing and placement. For now, continued with the blended forecast since we`re using a 6hour time window for rain chances. If you were to look at the entire system as a whole, most locations probably have a 70 to 80% chance of seeing some rainfall between Wednesday and Thursday according to the ensemble guidance. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1211 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024 Clear skies tonight. Some mid level clouds increase Saturday. Light westerly winds turning south Saturday evening. KMSP...No concerns. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SUN...VFR. Wind W 10-15G25kts BCMG N 10-15kts. MON...VFR. Wind NNE 10-15kts. TUE...VFR. Wind E at 5-10kts && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ UPDATE...MPG DISCUSSION...JRB/Dunleavy AVIATION...Borghoff