Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FNUS73 KMPX 271456
FWSMPX

Spot Forecast for Orrock Piles...USFWS
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
956 AM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1100 CDT on March 27.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

Please contact our office if you have questions or concerns with
this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...
A few flurries possible today, though little though little no
accumulation is expected. Winds will be out of the west at
ignition, sustaining between 10-15 mph. Westerly gusts up to 25
mph at times this afternoon. Minimum RH values are forecast to
range between 60-70% this afternoon.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Chance of
                    flurries late in the afternoon.
Temperature.........21 at ignition...Max 24.
RH..................77 percent at ignition...Min 71 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds west at 13 mph at ignition...otherwise
                    West winds 13 to 15 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Good /51500 knot-ft/ at ignition.
                    Max...excellent /77500 knot-ft/.
Mixing height.......2600 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 3500 ft
                    AGL.
Transport winds.....West 22 to 25 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth at ignition...max 3.

TIME (CDT)      11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P
Sky cover.......MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  CDY CDY MC  MC  MC
Weather cov.....SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
Tstm cov........
Temp............21  22  23  24  24  24  24  24  22  20  18  16
RH..............77  77  77  74  74  74  71  71  74  77  80  88
20 FT wind dir..W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W
20 FT wind spd..13  15  15  15  15  15  15  14  13  10  9   8
20 FT wind gust.21  23  23  23  23  23  23  21  20  16  14  13
Mix hgt (kft)...2.6 2.7 2.8 3.1 3.3 3.5 3.5 3.3 1.7 0.9 0.8 0.7
Transp wind dir.W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W
Transp wind spd.23  22  22  23  24  24  25  24  20  17  16  15
Haines index....3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   4   4   4   4

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent) then becoming
                    partly cloudy (35-45 percent). Chance of
                    flurries early in the evening.
Temperature.........Min 4.
RH..................Max 91 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 5 to 14 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (70000 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (4300 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 15 to 24 mph decreasing to around 14 mph
                    late in the evening.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (5-15 percent).
Temperature.........Max 32.
RH..................Min 66 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 5 to 8 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (3000 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to fair (20300 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......2200 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 8 to 13 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.

$$
Forecaster...Strus
Requested by...Bob Bengson
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2408575.0/MPX
.DELDT 03/27/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL robert_bengson@fws.gov


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