754
FXUS63 KMQT 011958
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
358 PM EDT Wed May 1 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy fog is possible across the Keweenaw, central, and east
  tonight.
- Active pattern continues through next week as a series of low
  pressure systems track across the U.S. and affect Upper MI.
  Above normal precipitation expected, including chance of
  thunderstorms at times
- Temperatures won`t stray too far from normal most days, but
  they will be above normal more often than below normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 229 PM EDT Wed May 1 2024

Low-level stratus and cumulus clouds persist over the area as the
low (now over eastern Lake Superior) spins into northern Ontario
later this afternoon. Meanwhile, cold air advection behind the cold
front continues to bring breezy westerly winds across the area this
afternoon. While we have not seen that much sunshine across the U.P.
today, there have been a few spots in the south central that have
already snuck into the low 60s. In addition, some light drizzle/rain
showers continue this afternoon across the U.P., as seen on the
current radar imagery. However, as the low continues to slowly pull
away and daytime heating begins to wane later this afternoon into
this evening, expect the shower activity to die-down, ceasing
altogether by the early evening hours. While we will likely (70+%)
see skies becoming partly cloudy across the area this evening,
expect more cloud cover to move overhead as another low pressure
system approaches from Colorado. In addition, with dewpoints being
higher than much of the model guidance due to the recent rainfall,
some patchy fog looks to develop across the central, east, and
Keweenaw tonight. Therefore, it`s not out of the realm of
possibility that visibilities get down to 1/4 to 1/2 miles across
parts of the U.P. tonight, especially as localized surface ridging
moving over us will calm the winds late. Thus, if you are out and
about in the overnight hours or heading to work Thursday morning, be
sure to keep your low-beam headlights on and drive a little slower.
Lows tonight are still projected to get down into the mid 30s to
around 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 357 PM EDT Wed May 1 2024

Last 24hrs of medium range model guidance has maintained continuity
in showing that the recent active pattern across the Lwr 48 will
continue thru next week as a series of vigorous waves track off of
the N Pacific and then across the U.S. This pattern will be
beneficial in easing ongoing drought over western and eastern Upper
MI as frequent rainfall events are expected, some potentially mdt to
hvy. The latest drought monitor from 4/25 indicated drought
conditions in western Upper MI were into the severe category in
portions of Gogebic/Ontonagon counties. To the e, moderate drought
was indicated from eastern Delta to western Mackinac counties. The
frequent pcpn events will also ease spring fire weather concerns.
So, expectation is for overall above normal pcpn thru next week. As
for temps, with the progressive nature of the flow and frequent
shortwave passages, expect temps fluctuating around normal, likely
not straying too far from normal on most days, rather than any
prolonged periods of well above or well blo normal temps. Daily
temps will end up on the warm side of normal more often than the
cool side. Farther down the road, there are indications for a cooler
period mid month per recent EPS runs which show troffing/weak
negative height anomalies setting up over the Great Lakes region and
ne U.S. CFSv2 ensemble mean also supports a cooler period mid month.

After a dry and quiet night with ridging briefly overhead, an upper
low centered over the Rockies will begin to move into the Northern
Plains Thursday. In response, strong waa/isentropic ascent will
advance across the Upper Mississippi Valley to Upper MI Thu
aftn/night. Strong 850-700mb moisture transport is also noted with
precipitable water increasing to 200-250pct of normal. As a result,
expect shra to spread ne into Upper MI during Thu aftn, especially
across the w half. Shra will then continue across the area Thu
night. Rainfall amounts should be on the order of 0.25-0.50 inches.
Ensemble probability guidance indicates a 30-60pct chc of exceeding
0.50 inches, and only a 10-20pct chc of exceeding 1 inch. The
highest totals are now indicated mainly east of M-95, perhaps owing
to the proximity of the left-exit region of the LLJ being directed
over the area and lending some divergence aloft. Overall model trend
has been to lower cape available for parcels lifted from top of sfc based
inversion. So, potential of thunder has diminished.

On Fri, low pres will lift across western Lake Superior or ne MN
early in the day and then into northern Ontario. Shra will end from
west to east as associated cold or occluded front crosses the fcst
area late Thu night thru early Fri aftn. With sharp drying occurring
in the wake of the front, skies will trend mostly sunny early Fri
over the west and later aftn across the east. High temps will range
thru the 60s to lwr 70s F. Will be cooler near Lake Superior where
westerly winds are an onshore wind and also near Lake MI as a
southerly wind component will linger. Deepening mixed layer under
increasing insolation will lead to a breezy day mainly in the
western UP, especially across the Keweenaw where gusts to around
30mph should occur.  There is also a potential for dewpoints to mix
out fairly nicely, with RH currently forecast to drop into the lower
30s (and perhaps even the upper 20s) closer to the WI border in the
western UP. Given breezy conditions, this is worth monitoring for
any elevated fire weather risk. That said, as this will be
immediately following a round of decent rainfall, so fuels should be
moist.

Dry weather will continue Fri night. Then, next shortwave will
already be approaching by Sat aftn, resulting in a chc of shra
spreading west to east Sat aftn/night. Model trends are toward a
drier scenario, and ensemble guidance only indicates a 20-40pct
chance of rainfall exceeding a tenth of an inch. Fcst will only
reflect 30-40pct chc of shra Sat aftn/night.

In the wake of the shortwave, dry weather returns for Sun with sfc
high pres ridge arriving. Model agreement has notably improved for
dry weather to continue on Mon as a more amplified mid-level ridge
shifts over the area. While there is more uncertainty in timing
shortwaves beyond Mon as is typical at this time range, models have
trended toward better agreement. Next wave is likely to arrive Tue,
bringing the next round of shra in the ongoing active pattern. Shra
chc will continue on Wed as a potential mid-level low approaches
from the west.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 232 PM EDT Wed May 1 2024

Expect the messy TAF conditions to continue the rest of today into
Thursday as conditions slowly improve to MVFR/VFR across the area
the rest of this afternoon. However, model guidance is hinting at
some FG developing over KSAW and KCMX tonight, which would bring
these terminals back down to LIFR again late tonight into Thursday
morning. As yet another low pressure moves towards Upper MI
Thursday, we could see rain showers move back over the area at the
end/beyond the end of the current TAF period. As the rain
approaches, expect conditions to improve.

While LLWS isn`t expected, I`d say there`s around a 30% chance that
we could see some marginal low-level turbulence at KSAW and maybe
(lower chance) at KCMX as mixing may cease and cause a 20 to 30 knot
difference between the winds at the sfc and 2 kft aloft. However, as
the night goes on, the threat for it diminishes, becoming 0% after
midnight tonight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 357 PM EDT Wed May 1 2024

Low pressure is beginning to move east of Lake Superior this
afternoon, and though winds are turning calmer across western Lake
Superior, they should remain elevated across the eastern half of the
lake through this evening while shifting more to the west. Expect
wind gusts generally in the 20-25kt range before winds fall back to
around 5-10kts across the whole lake later tonight. Lighter winds
under 15kt will linger across eastern Lake Superior on Thu. Over
western Lake Superior, NE winds will be on the increase again on Thu
as the next low pressure moves out over the central Plains. Expect
NE winds up to 30kt by late Thu aftn over far western Lake Superior.
E to SE winds will increase up to 30kt over eastern Lake Superior
Thu night. Probability guidance indicates a 10-30pct chc of low end
gale gusts. As low pres lifts into northern Ontario on Fri, winds
will shift s to sw. While gusts up to 30kt will continue over
western Lake Superior, winds will fall off to under 20kt over the
eastern lake. Over the weekend, expect winds mostly under 20kt
across Lake Superior, then winds begin to pick up out of the E/SE
early next week.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
  Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LSZ245-
     246.

  Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT /4 PM CDT/ this afternoon
     for LSZ241-242.

  Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for LSZ243-
     244.

  Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for LSZ247-
     248.

  Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Thursday for LSZ249.

  Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Thursday for LSZ250-251.

Lake Michigan...
  Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LMZ221-
     248-250.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TAP
LONG TERM...LC
AVIATION...TAP
MARINE...LC