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000
FXUS63 KMQT 151139
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
739 AM EDT Mon Apr 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry weather continues today. RHs again fall to near 20% over
  interior west half portions..especially close to the WI
  border, causing some fire weather concerns although winds will
  be lighter.
- Dry weather continues through Tuesday afternoon. RHs fall to
  20-30% across much of the UP on Tuesday, causing elevated fire
  weather conditions with wind gusts increasing to 25-30 mph.
- A low pressure tracks through the Upper Great Lakes late
  Tuesday through early Thursday, causing widespread rain
  showers and gusty winds.
- Chances of mainly light precipitation (20-40%) hang on
  Thursday through Saturday, though uncertainty exists on
  timing, and precipitation type.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 343 AM EDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Ridging building in over the area from a surface high pressure
centered over Hudson Bay will continue dry conditions over the area
today into tonight. Due to the dry airmass is place the short term
forecast today will focus on fire weather concerns from lowering
dew points and RHs mainly across the interior west near the WI
border.

With the very dry airmass in place as depicted on the area 00Z
soundings, decided to lean quite a bit on the better performing
local mix dew point tool and blending that with the bias-
corrected CONSShort and NBM 10th pcnl to come up with dewpoints
this afternoon. With fcst dew points lowering to the upper teens
to around 20F over the interior west this afternoon combined
with high temps in the upper 50s to around 60F this should yield
Min RH values near 20% at many locations interior west close to
the WI border. Fortunately, northwest winds should not be
nearly as strong as yesterday over those locations. Expect
sustained winds around 10 mph with slightly higher gusts, which
should help keep fire weather concerns in check and preclude the
issuance of a SPS today. Stronger northwest-north winds 10-15
mph with gusts to 20 mph off Lake Superior from the Keweenaw
into north central and eastern portions of the cwa will modify
temperatures and dew points a bit more over these locations,
resulting in min RH values generally in the 30-50% range for
these areas, moist enough to limit fire weather concerns. Bottom
line: Won`t be issuing a Fire Weather SPS today but will still
message very dry conditions and don`t burn messaging in social
media graphics.

High pressure will continue the dry conditions tonight, and
lingering low dew points and increasing winds late in the west could
result in poor RH recovery of only 60-70% over western portions,
perhaps setting the stage for elevated fire concerns on Tuesday as
winds continue to increase ahead of the approaching Plains system.

High temps today will be mostly in the 50s, except for some lower
60s south central. Lows tonight will range from the upper 20s over
east half interior closer to the sfc ridge axis and best radiational
cooling to the mid to upper 30s west where increasing winds through
the boundary layer late could put a halt on falling temps there.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 449 AM EDT Mon Apr 15 2024

By Tuesday, the UP will be under sharp 500mb ridging as a closed low
spins over the Central Plains. At the surface, the pressure gradient
builds as a 1030mb high drops from the Hudson Bay to northern
Ontario while a 990mb low is over Nebraska. In spite of increasing
high and mid level cloud cover per the 00Z HREF, high temperatures
remain above normal and dry air in the lower parts of the
atmospheric column will create conditions supporting RHs falling to
the 20s and high teens. With dry easterly wind flowing off the
Canadian Shield at up to 20 mph gusting to around 30 mph, fire
weather during the afternoon hours is particularly concerning.

The saving grace for fire weather will be the eventual arrival of
widespread rain showers as the surface low weakens slightly as it
tracks through the UP by late Wednesday. Ensemble trends have
gradually slowed the arrival of precipitation late Tuesday, but
nearly all the ensemble members bring precipitation to the MI/WI
state line (also where the highest fire weather conditions will be)
by 06Z Wednesday. Southerly flow ahead of the low`s arrival will
bring a significant increase of Gulf of Mexico moisture, with NAEFS
vapor transport in the 90th to 97.5th percentile of model
climatology. Abundant mositure plus present forcing equals
widespread precipitation, te 27th to 75th percentile range of QPF
narrowed down to around 0.5-1.25 inches. While this will be a good
soaking rainfall (encouraging for fire and drought partners), hydro
concerns are fairly low given the antecedent dry conditions. A few
rumbles of thunder can`t be ruled out in the east and south as about
10-20% of the LREF members show 100-500 J/kg of surface CAPE
Wednesday. The upwards trend in winds on Tuesday will continue into
Wednesday as the low tracks through the region, with wind gusts up
to 40 mph possible over the Keweenaw Peninsula and up to 30 mph
across much of the rest of the UP. While cooler air will arrive on
the back side of the low, model soundings only show limited
potential for a few snowflakes mixing in for Gogebic County Thursday
morning.

Brief ridging will follow behind the passage of the low Thursday,
significantly cutting into the PoPs. Ensemble agreement is improving
on a northern stream trough arriving later Thursday, but the PoP
trend has gone down and the temperature trend has gone warmer, with
chances of 1 inch of snow accumulation now falling to just 20-30% in
the 00Z GEFS and even lower in the Euro and Canadian ensembles. With
PWATs falling to just 0.25 inches by Sunday, whatever precip does
fall over the weekend should be fairly low-impact. High pressure is
expected to come over much of the central CONUS Saturday through
Monday which shuold spell the eventual end of showers and cause some
breaks in the clouds. This should allow temperatures to come back to
normal into next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 739 AM EDT Mon Apr 15 2024

VFR prevails for the forecast period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 449 AM EDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Under a ridge of high pressure, winds will remain at or below 20 kt
today. As a low pressure begins to move out of the Central Plains on
Tuesday, winds gradually increase to northeasterly gales to 40 kt in
western Lake Superior Tuesday afternoon. Easterly gales overspread
the lake by late Tuesday into early Wednesday as the low passes
through the Upper Great Lakes. Winds fall below gales in the
immediate wake of the low late Wednesday, though the enhanced
pressure gradient will keep westerly winds of 20-30 kt in the
forecast into the weekend. During the northeasterly gales late
Tuesday, waves of 10-13 feet are possible with 8-12 feet waves on
Wednesday across the whole lake, locally up to 15 feet between Isle
Royale and the Keweenaw Peninsula. Waves fall below 6 feet early
Thursday but remain at 2-5 feet until late Saturday.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
  Gale Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday afternoon
     for LSZ162.

  Gale Watch from Tuesday evening through Wednesday afternoon
     for LSZ240>244-263-264.

  Gale Watch from late Tuesday night through Wednesday afternoon
     for LSZ245>251-265>267.

Lake Michigan...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Voss
LONG TERM...GS
AVIATION...Voss
MARINE...GS